Prospect Info: STI Top 62 Draft Rankings: May 2019

[StevenToddIves]

Just got a chance to read through your rankings. I'm glad you brought up Nikolayev. I was going over footage from the U18 tournament for a report and I got stuck on him. On one hand, his puck skills are really impressive in my opinion. In fact he thinks the game very well too. The only thing that concerned me was his skating. While he was somewhat deceptive and elusive, there's a lot of work that will need to go into his overall speed, acceleration and mobility. First round potential, but it strikes me as a similar situation to that of Jamie Benn when he got drafted. They're different players and Nikolayev's skating is not as worrying as Benn's was, but the rest of the skills and intelligence are there. Will a team take a gamble on the pure skill in the top-62 hoping the skating improves? I think it's likely.

As usual, I agree with you.

I think Nikolayev's skating combined with his Russian-ness drops him into the second round. Anywhere he goes in the second would not surprise me. After which, he's a bit of a "finger-crosser" for the reasons you mentioned, and I agree the upside is there.

 

[NJDFan4Life]

@StevenToddIves Still fair to say Hughes has locked down the 1st overall selection? Would love to hear your thoughts?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Just got a chance to read through your rankings. I'm glad you brought up Nikolayev. I was going over footage from the U18 tournament for a report and I got stuck on him. On one hand, his puck skills are really impressive in my opinion. In fact he thinks the game very well too. The only thing that concerned me was his skating. While he was somewhat deceptive and elusive, there's a lot of work that will need to go into his overall speed, acceleration and mobility. First round potential, but it strikes me as a similar situation to that of Jamie Benn when he got drafted. They're different players and Nikolayev's skating is not as worrying as Benn's was, but the rest of the skills and intelligence are there. Will a team take a gamble on the pure skill in the top-62 hoping the skating improves? I think it's likely.

I'd love to hear your opinion on my extremely high ranking of Jamieson Rees. Though his 2018-19 season was marred by injury and suspension, I still felt the need to rank him about 30 slots above the consensus. His speed/passing/two-way play/compete level combination are easily first-round caliber, in my opinion.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves Still fair to say Hughes has locked down the 1st overall selection? Would love to hear your thoughts?

Yes. The Devils cannot afford to pass on such a rare, elite combination of skating/vision/puckhandling/zone-entry ability -- especially when his style of play fits so completely into the stylistic philosophy GM Ray Shero has been working so hard to instill in the organization. When determining whom the Devils will select at #1 overall, it is also important to factor in the variables -- such as, that Hughes has a friendship with Taylor Hall (who the Devils very much need to re-sign long term) and that the Hughes family has a relationship with Ray Shero (who is making the decision).

Jack Hughes has been the favorite to be the #1 pick for 2019 for several years, and nothing in his record-shattering resume has diminished this. While other players behind him have strengthened their own stars (primarily Kappo Kakko and Bowen Byram) as worthy #1 overall picks, Hughes has done nothing to diminish his own, and thus must still be considered the overwhelming favorite to go to the Devils at #1.

 

[NorCalhockey]

@StevenToddIves thanks for taking the time to make such a thoughtful list, especially giving reasons for your rankings.

I'm not a draft expert, so can you (or anyone with knowledge) answer a question I have: for all the non-North American prospects, how are they made available for the NHL draft? Why aren't their "rights" owned by some domestic team in Europe (Swedish Elite League, or KHL, etc.)? For example, let's say the KHL wants to grow their league to compete with the NHL, why would any top Russian prospects be available for the NHL draft? Does the club or league that "owns" a certain player get buckets of $$$ for making that player available to the NHL?

Thanks for any insight you can provide.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves thanks for taking the time to make such a thoughtful list, especially giving reasons for your rankings.

I'm not a draft expert, so can you (or anyone with knowledge) answer a question I have: for all the non-North American prospects, how are they made available for the NHL draft? Why aren't their "rights" owned by some domestic team in Europe (Swedish Elite League, or KHL, etc.)? For example, let's say the KHL wants to grow their league to compete with the NHL, why would any top Russian prospects be available for the NHL draft? Does the club or league that "owns" a certain player get buckets of $$$ for making that player available to the NHL?

Thanks for any insight you can provide.

Thanks for your kind words.

To my knowledge, the KHL is the only league which does not cede its contractual player rights to the NHL. The professional leagues in the remainder of European nations allow prospects immediate access to the NHL.

 

[thethinglonger]

I'd love to hear your opinion on my extremely high ranking of Jamieson Rees. Though his 2018-19 season was marred by injury and suspension, I still felt the need to rank him about 30 slots above the consensus. His speed/passing/two-way play/compete level combination are easily first-round caliber, in my opinion.

I have him as a late-first round/early second-round pick very similar to you. I really like his tenacity and skating ability. I also really like his ability to recognize open space on the ice and take advantage of it. His agility is going to help him transition to the next level. He does have a history with injuries - the lacerated kidney you brought up and a very high ankle sprains. I'm not too concerned about injuries, but then again I'm not in the position to be making these decisions.

That being said, I think he has some very nice offensive potential and he only showed how much of a buzz-saw game he plays at the U18 championship. He also had a great performance at the Hlinka this year too. I think he goes in the 2nd round, but it'll be a good value pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves thanks for taking the time to make such a thoughtful list, especially giving reasons for your rankings.

Also, to you and anyone else on these threads, if you ever want me to give an explanation for my rankings (whether they are higher, lower or at the consensus), I would be glad to explain. I put a great deal of thought into these rankings, so just feel free to ask away.

 

[Offseason Champs]

As I've stated before, my pipe dream is for Bobby Brink to be available at #34. The Minnesota native has tremendous upside, we're talking a PPG, first-line stud. Of course, I don't see it as likely, but considering his draft range should be between 21-31, the possibility of his slipping to #34 is still a mathematical reality.

So, if you're hoping the Devils get a guy with top-6 scoring upside with the #34 pick, these 5 names (Brink, Mastrosimone, Legare, Poulin, Robertson) will certainly not all be available. But two or three of them should still be on the board.

Yeah I saw you mention Brink before as a pipe dream 34OA pick, and I'm right there with you with the way you describe him. I've seen small snippets of him and he is definitely a guy who looks like he could play above his draft ranking with a bit of seasoning, which would be great.

Coming away with Hughes and Brink alone would be a tremendous win for this organization in the draft. Just one month to go!

P.S. I appreciate the time and thought you put into your reply to my question!

 

[My3Sons]

Also, to you and anyone else on these threads, if you ever want me to give an explanation for my rankings (whether they are higher, lower or at the consensus), I would be glad to explain. I put a great deal of thought into these rankings, so just feel free to ask away.

Not quite a ranking but do you really see NJ drafting a big physical defender who isn’t primarily a puck mover? Other than BERNARD I don’t think any of Castron’s picks have fit that bill. I agree the team needs to develop some balance on the blue line but I’m a bit skeptical that Shero commits a premium pick to a physical defender.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Not quite a ranking but do you really see NJ drafting a big physical defender who isn’t primarily a puck mover? Other than BERNARD I don’t think any of Castron’s picks have fit that bill. I agree the team needs to develop some balance on the blue line but I’m a bit skeptical that Shero commits a premium pick to a physical defender.

I think the fact that Shero used his own second pick for a physical D last year as a hopeful indication that he realizes the need for them in the Devils organization. Holding 6 picks between #34 and #96, I would be shocked if NJ did not come away from the draft with a Case McCarthy or Jake Lee-type, and I would not rule out spending a later round pick on a physical D like Will Francis.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LD Samuel Bolduc, Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL
When a player is called "toolsy", it's generally a dubious distinction. Though it indicates that there are specific impressive elements to their game, it also indicates that their overall game is not equal to the sum of the parts. In the 2019 draft, Bolduc could be the poster-child for such a label.

Let's analyze the tools. Bolduc is a rare combination of 6'4-215 who skates extremely well. He does not "skate extremely well for his size". No, he's just an excellent, mobile skater with terrific edge work, mobility and top speed. He's incredibly strong, but he is not the type to generally engage in the rough stuff. He prefers to play a more positional game, but if you engage him physically? Look out. An irate Bolduc throws bodies around the ice with harrowing ferocity. However, he needs to learn to engage physically more often in order for this element to be called a true strength.

The truest strength of Bolduc's game is his shot. How to describe it? Well, calling it "a shot" feels, in an of itself, as an understatement. Bolduc's shot is an absolute missile. Any attempt to block that thing is a potential trip to the ER. He might have the heaviest point blast of any defenseman available in the 2019 draft.

So why is this kid not universally considered a top-two round pick in the draft? Well, he's a bit of a project. He needs a ton of coaching and development, he needs work on his gaps and positional play, he needs to hone his puck decisions. It is for these reasons that I think that Bolduc is a big sleeper candidate for the 4th/5th rounds -- if he puts it all together, we're talking about a fast and huge D who can function as the primary shooter on an NHL first PP unit.

 

[devilsblood]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LD Samuel Bolduc, Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL
When a player is called "toolsy", it's generally a dubious distinction. Though it indicates that there are specific impressive elements to their game, it also indicates that their overall game is not equal to the sum of the parts. In the 2019 draft, Bolduc could be the poster-child for such a label.

Let's analyze the tools. Bolduc is a rare combination of 6'4-215 who skates extremely well. He does not "skate extremely well for his size". No, he's just an excellent, mobile skater with terrific edge work, mobility and top speed. He's incredibly strong, but he is not the type to generally engage in the rough stuff. He prefers to play a more positional game, but if you engage him physically? Look out. An irate Bolduc throws bodies around the ice with harrowing ferocity. However, he needs to learn to engage physically more often in order for this element to be called a true strength.

The truest strength of Bolduc's game is his shot. How to describe it? Well, calling it "a shot" feels, in an of itself, as an understatement. Bolduc's shot is an absolute missile. Any attempt to block that thing is a potential trip to the ER. He might have the heaviest point blast of any defenseman available in the 2019 draft.

So why is this kid not universally considered a top-two round pick in the draft? Well, he's a bit of a project. He needs a ton of coaching and development, he needs work on his gaps and positional play, he needs to hone his puck decisions. It is for these reasons that I think that Bolduc is a big sleeper candidate for the 4th/5th rounds -- if he puts it all together, we're talking about a fast and huge D who can function as the primary shooter on an NHL first PP unit.

Fairly modest #'s with a 9-28-37 in 65 gp stat line. But note that the top point producer on the team had 50 in 67. So a lousy offensive team.

Bolduc was the 4th leading point producer on the team and the leading d-men offensively.

If the skills do add up, I like this as a sleeper. Maybe even a reach sleeper.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Fairly modest #'s with a 9-28-37 in 65 gp stat line. But note that the top point producer on the team had 50 in 67. So a lousy offensive team.

Bolduc was the 4th leading point producer on the team and the leading d-men offensively.

If the skills do add up, I like this as a sleeper. Maybe even a reach sleeper.

The skills do not add up quite yet. But if coaching and development can rectify this, Bolduc would certainly be worth a stab in the 4th/5th rounds. He would immediately become the second biggest D in the organization after Jacobs and would immediately feature the hardest point shot in the organization.

 

[devilsblood]

The skills do not add up quite yet. But if coaching and development can rectify this, Bolduc would certainly be worth a stab in the 4th/5th rounds. He would immediately become the second biggest D in the organization after Jacobs and would immediately feature the hardest point shot in the organization.

Is Jacobs bigger then Mueller or Bernard? Or Bolduc for that matter?

 

[Dafp]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LD Samuel Bolduc, Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL
When a player is called "toolsy", it's generally a dubious distinction. Though it indicates that there are specific impressive elements to their game, it also indicates that their overall game is not equal to the sum of the parts. In the 2019 draft, Bolduc could be the poster-child for such a label.

Let's analyze the tools. Bolduc is a rare combination of 6'4-215 who skates extremely well. He does not "skate extremely well for his size". No, he's just an excellent, mobile skater with terrific edge work, mobility and top speed. He's incredibly strong, but he is not the type to generally engage in the rough stuff. He prefers to play a more positional game, but if you engage him physically? Look out. An irate Bolduc throws bodies around the ice with harrowing ferocity. However, he needs to learn to engage physically more often in order for this element to be called a true strength.

The truest strength of Bolduc's game is his shot. How to describe it? Well, calling it "a shot" feels, in an of itself, as an understatement. Bolduc's shot is an absolute missile. Any attempt to block that thing is a potential trip to the ER. He might have the heaviest point blast of any defenseman available in the 2019 draft.

So why is this kid not universally considered a top-two round pick in the draft? Well, he's a bit of a project. He needs a ton of coaching and development, he needs work on his gaps and positional play, he needs to hone his puck decisions. It is for these reasons that I think that Bolduc is a big sleeper candidate for the 4th/5th rounds -- if he puts it all together, we're talking about a fast and huge D who can function as the primary shooter on an NHL first PP unit.

Reading that, my mind went straight to Eric Gelinas

 

[Classic Devil]

Reading that, my mind went straight to Eric Gelinas

Would be a good late round pick.

 

[Dafp]

Would be a good late round pick.

Oh yeah, don’t doubt it. Gelinas wasn’t a terrible pick in the 3rd. It’s just really frustrating when these ‘all the tools’ players can’t put it together.

EDIT: we took Gelinas in the 2nd.

 

[GeNeXt]

Watch rags take seider at 20. They lack D depth

They have more of a need at center. Could see them grabbing someone like Newhook/Tomasino/Suzuki

 

[StevenToddIves]

They have more of a need at center. Could see them grabbing someone like Newhook/Tomasino/Suzuki

In my mind, Newhook is long gone by #20.

As for Tomasino and Suzuki, they would both have to be considered possibilities for the Rangers at #20 overall. But what's important to keep in mind about the current Rangers scouting department under Jeff Gorton is that they rely heavily on their European scouts. NYR have had 6 picks in the top two rounds over the past two years, and have taken exactly zero OHL-ers with those picks. They have taken 5 European skaters, three of which were considered "reaches" where they picked them (Andersson, Lindbom, Lundqvist). Ultimately, I would not be shocked if the Rangers did this again in June, passing up Tomasino, Suzuki, McMichael and Rees for a Ilya Nikolayev or Nils Hoglander.

On the other hand, I felt the one non-European the Rangers took in the top two rounds in 2017 & 2018 was one of the best picks in the draft -- US-NTDP LD K'Andre Miller. This leads me to believe that the Rangers would consider US-NTDP center John Beecher at #20.

Ultimately, I completely agree with you that the Rangers would be wise to take a center at #20 -- the 2019 draft is very deep at the position, and the Rangers clearly have an organizational need for a 1C. I think Chytil is an ideal future 2C, and I think Zibanajad is a terrific 2C right now. Though the Rangers likely drafted Lias Andersson with the hopes that he would become a 1C, I think he is more suited to be a middle-six LW or bottom-six C -- his offensive tool set is just not suited to a high-scoring role.

If I were on the Rangers scouting team, I'd really be pulling for Phil Tomasino, Jamieson Rees or Suzuki for these reasons -- they all have 1C upside. Tomasino is lightning fast, is a dynamic scorer and plays hard two-ways. Suzuki might need to refine certain areas of his game, but he is just an unbelievable passer. Rees is the wild card -- I've discussed him at great length, but he may turn out to be the steal of the 2019 draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Ethan Keppen, Flint Firebirds, OHL

I will be the first one to say that Ethan Keppen is not the typical Ray Shero/Paul Castron draft selection. They prefer speedy players who drive play. Keppen is a big, tough power forward who is an average skater at best. But if the Devils braintrust decides they want a physical beast in their bottom six who can also score and dominate down low, Keppen is a pretty intriguing player.

Keppen scored 30 goals this year for Flint. He's a player who has two plus attributes: his plus strength/physicality and a cannon of a shot. His puck skills, vision, hockey IQ are, like his speed, only average. But none of those skills grade as "minuses", so they don't really detract from the type of player Keppen can become. We're talking a bottom six banger who will crush opposing defensemen, stand up for his teammates whenever need be, and blast the occasional goal.

Keppen should be available until the 4th/5th rounds. I'm not certain I would draft him over a high-upside defenseman or forward if one were available, but if not? Keppen will certainly have value as a bottom-6 physical force with pretty impressive goal-scoring upside.

 

[Sleestak Nation]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Ethan Keppen, Flint Firebirds, OHL

I will be the first one to say that Ethan Keppen is not the typical Ray Shero/Paul Castron draft selection. They prefer speedy players who drive play. Keppen is a big, tough power forward who is an average skater at best. But if the Devils braintrust decides they want a physical beast in their bottom six who can also score and dominate down low, Keppen is a pretty intriguing player.

Keppen scored 30 goals this year for Flint. He's a player who has two plus attributes: his plus strength/physicality and a cannon of a shot. His puck skills, vision, hockey IQ are, like his speed, only average. But none of those skills grade as "minuses", so they don't really detract from the type of player Keppen can become. We're talking a bottom six banger who will crush opposing defensemen, stand up for his teammates whenever need be, and blast the occasional goal.

Keppen should be available until the 4th/5th rounds. I'm not certain I would draft him over a high-upside defenseman or forward if one were available, but if not? Keppen will certainly have value as a bottom-6 physical force with pretty impressive goal-scoring upside.

I haven't seen him play. What is his stride like? Is there room for a good skating consultant to improve things without taking away what makes him effective at the junior level?

 

[StevenToddIves]

I haven't seen him play. What is his stride like? Is there room for a good skating consultant to improve things without taking away what makes him effective at the junior level?

Keppen is strong on his skates, which is effective for his type of game, but I don't think he will ever be known for his speed. He has very good edges and balance, so I do not see the skating as a liability, it will just never be a strength. He has sort of what I would call a "lunge-y" stride, which can be beneficial when leaning into a shot on the fly, but inhibits his ability to puck handle when he is pressing for his top speeds. He tends to push the puck forwards and then skate after it repeatedly. For these reasons, Keppen's strengths lie not in playmaking and zone transitions. However, his strengths are that he is terrific along the boards and in the crease, and he can seriously blast the puck. He's also good in his own zone, smart positionally and competitive. For these reasons, I would call Keppen a "two-zone player" -- he's pretty good in the defensive zone, nothing impressive in the neutral zone, but a beast down low.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Rhett Pitlick, Chaska HS, USHS-MN
Certain scouts like certain types of players, and they look for them every draft. In three drafts with the Devils, Paul Castron & co. have used four post-first round picks to select undersized left wings with high-end speed and offensive upside: Jesper Bratt, Brandon Gignac, Jesper Boqvist and Eetu Pakkila. Though Gignac looks more like a future AHL-tweener or NHL bottom-sixer and Pakkila is still a long way off, Boqvist looks like a home run pick and Bratt was a downright grand slam. Rhett Pitlick would certainly fit into a similar category with the aforementioned Devils picks.

Certainly not a big or physical player at about 5'9.5-165, Pitlick is never going to make it as a bottom-6 forward. He is one of those kids who will either blossom as a top-6 scorer or not make the big show whatsoever. But he possesses terrific potential to perform such a feat. First and foremost is Pitlick's speed -- the kid can absolutely skate the lights out. He reaches top speed in a blink and it's a defenseman's nightmare to try and catch him once he does. Pitlick's shot is also quite accurate and he only needs a fraction of a second to pick a corner. His vision and puck skills are also very good attributes.

In sum, we're looking at a kid who likely needs at least three years of development in the NCAA (committed to U of Minnesota) and is no sure thing, but could turn out to be that 4th/5th round pick who pays off serious dividends down the road. Castron & co. love the overlooked speed demons with high-end offensive upside, and thus I would hypothesize that Pitlick is higher on the Devils' draft boards than most.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

RW Aaron Huglen, Fargo, USHL
Another of the smaller-type (5'10-165) skill wingers who Ray Shero and Paul Castron have targeted in the past few drafts, the University of Minnesota commit also plays RW, where the Devils certainly need to add some scoring skill in the 2019 draft. A very good but not elite skater, Huglen is one of those kids who also need to develop for a few years at the NCAA level, both physical and in terms of building a complete game. So, why mention him specifically? Simple -- this kid's hands are simply elite.

Huglen is one of those puck-on-a-string players who can seemingly do whatever he wants while stick handling almost unconsciously. It's like he's a hypnotist playing with a pendulum out there. This absolutely elite quality might be enough to give him second-line scoring upside at the NHL level. Though it's tough to project young players with a singular standout skill who have not played a lot against high-end competition (only 24 USHL games after graduating from his Roseau, MN high school team), take a gander at this:

U.S. prospect scores smooth lacrosse-style goal in Hlinka Gretzky Cup

I can never watch that goal enough. It's important to note that Huglen is also a good skater and passer. His shot is accurate but could stand to develop some power. He could be available in the 4th through 6th rounds and, again, he's the ilk of player the Devils scouting team seems to have great affinity for.