Hi, Avs fan here just browsing through this and the mock draft thread. Awesome reads btw! Just thought I'd chime in on this specific subject;
Wrt to Timmins, I don't believe he will affect our pick at #3 at all. If Timmins plays this coming fall, he will have gone almost a year and a half without playing a game in a critical time of his development after his concussion last year. In fact, many Avs fans belive we're into quality-of-life territory with him. Crossing our fingers he will be ready this fall and will carve out some kind of NHL career, but at this time nobody really knows.
In addition, both he and Makar are RD's, Byram is a LD. On the left side, we got Girard (thank the heavens for that little wizard) and Zadorov who are still quite young. Zadorov makes us all pull our hair out with his up and down performances, but the reality is the team has an eye-poppingly better record with him, than without him. With Barrie and Girard already on the team and Makar coming, Zadorov brings a necessary balance to the D-core (yes, just like your diet, the D-core needs a little bit of everything). However, he's a RFA this year, again, and the negotiations last year did not really go over well, so we're all a little bit on the edge about what will happen with him. If the negotiations go sour, the Avs might have an easier time picking Byram if he's neck-and-neck with someone else at #3.
Personally, I hope Zadorov stays and we pick a fwd if we're at #3/4. We're in dire need of a top-6 fwd. My favorite is Turcotte, but I trust the Avs scouting in the top 3, despite our horrendous scouting staff, which has easily been bottom-3 in the league since I started following the draft (2005), even with the vaunted 2009 draft.
PS.
@StevenToddIves How in the world did the Rags mess up with the Kravtsov-pick last year?
The only one I'd debate taking over him is Dobson and that's a very close call either way....
Thanks for your very knowledgable and interesting take.
I believe the main thing to consider with the Colorado Avalanche is that, due to their fleecing of Ottawa in the now-infamous Duchene deal, they have two picks to play with in the 2019 draft, one which is very likely to land them a franchise player in Jack Hughes or Kappo Kakko.
But we must consider the possibility that the Avs wind up picking 3rd or 4th, which is of course where all the intrigue begins in the 2019 draft. Though it would seem that the Avs need some fortifying in the prospect pool at LD, it has been widely reported that their foremost desire is to improve their secondary scoring behind the sublime trio of MacKinnon-Landeskog-Rantanen. Therefore, in the 3/4 slots, Colorado would be very difficult to predict. Byram would make sense, but so would Cozens/Podkolzin/Dach/Durcotte/Zegras/Krebs.
With most of these teams, you can cross off a name or two off this list at 3/4. For instance, Anaheim never drafts Russians, so we can safely assume they're not taking Podkolzin. Detroit and Vancouver are both desperate for D in the pipeline, so you can highlight Byram as a possibility, especially in Vancouver where Byram plays for the WHL Giants. Ray Shero has drafted extremely fast skaters as often as possible, so Kirby Dach might dip in the rankings while Turcotte, Zegras and Krebs could rise.
I think the unitary determining factor with Colorado is that they are competitive now, which might lead them to weigh in the favor of a prospect who can help them sooner. As Podkolzin has shown little interest in jumping to North America, maybe he is a less likely candidate for Colorado at 3/4.
If I had to do a draft dossier on Colorado, I would be able to draw a few peculiarities:
1)They are not afraid to draft highly from smaller developmental leagues. Two of their past three first-rounders (Makar, Jost) were from the BCHL and AJHL, plus they have two later round picks in those drafts from USHS teams (Clurman, Leivermann).
2)They draft less often from the CHL than most teams. Though in 2016 the Avs took a trio of players from the Q, they have only taken one CHL-er in the first two rounds (Timmins) since 2013.
3)They have increasingly been a draft presence in the Russian juniors -- taking three players from that system last year and another in 2017.
Personally, I would say that Colorado is in a more enviable position than any NHL team entering the 2019 draft. They already have a very good team, loaded with star talent. They have another surefire star ready to crack the team next season in Cale Makar, and have the best odds of adding another franchise player in Byram or Kakko. Plus, they still have their own first rounder, which can be used to draft another blue-chipper or be dealt on draft day for secondary scoring help (Kapanen? Nylander?) to a team with cap-woes which the Avs are free of. So, good luck!
P.S. I would have taken Wahlstrom over Kravtsov, but it was not a "bad" pick, per se, as it's close between the two. A bad pick was the Rangers taking Lias Andersson over Mittelstadt/Vilardi/Necas in 2017.
