Prospect Info: STI 2019 Draft Rankings, 1.0

[StevenToddIves]

I'm going to wait until after the lottery to do another mock draft, which is far different than my personal rankings, because I also study the organizational tendencies/needs.

I'm going to do a top 40 now, but will probably do a top 62 the week of the draft in June. I'd like to add a note that this list is just for skaters, not goaltenders. Spencer Knight is likely to be a first round pick, and no disrespect to him for not including him.

1 C Jack Hughes perhaps the best edge work of any skater we've ever seen, a future 100-point scorer.
2 W Kappo Kakko the complete package, brilliant in every respect, likened to Peter Forsberg on the wing
3 LD Bowen Byram electrifying skater, dynamic offensively, physical/smart/competitive defensively
4 C Alex Turcotte best two-way F in the draft also has unbelievable offensive upside and off-the-charts compete level
5 W Vasili Podkolzin incredible mix of offensive skill/physicality/compete level, plays like a Tkachuk
6 C/RW Dylan Cozens no weakness in his game, terrific mix of size/speed/shot/skill/two-way game but may lack elite offensive vision of some other top 10 Fs
7 LW Peyton Krebs incredible mix of speed/puckhandling/compete level, future NHL captain
8 C Kirby Dach elite size/vision/passing/two-way reminiscent of Getzlaf, good skater but not elite like other top-10 Cs listed here
9 C Trevor Zegras like Hughes-lite -- just an incredible offensive player, hands and skates are sick... though I have him at #9, there is not a lot of distance between #3 and #9 on my list
10 C Alex Newhook brilliant skater/shooter/play-maker, potential home run pick
11 RW Cole Caulfield best pure shooter in the entire draft, if he were 6'0 or a bit faster he could go top 5
12 W Matthew Boldy silky smooth winger is very good in every respect, reminds me of Mark Stone
13 W Arthur Kaliyev most polarizing player in 2019, incredible shooter and scorer, questions about 200-foot game but 50-goal (!) upside if he puts it all together
14 C Philip Tomasino as underrated as anyone in this draft, incredibly skilled with jersey-flapping speed and a regular on the highlight reels, I'm convinced he has NHL 1C upside
15 C Connor McMichael very good at every aspect of the game, just a great skater and whip-smart on the ice
16 RD Viktor Soderstrom terrific skater, smart as any D in this draft, wonderful skill -- he's moving up with a bullet on my rankings
17 LD Matthew Robertson I tend to rank physical, stay-at-home D higher than most -- Robertson is smart, tough, has good skill/smarts and could blossom into Vlasic-like shut-down beast
18 LW Nicholas Robertson undersized sniper could be a steal in the second round, ball of energy and tons of fun to watch
18 (tie) LW Jakob Pelletier I have a tie here -- Pelletier is very similar to Robertson in size/skill/heart at the same position
20 LD Thomas Harley his offensive skill is undeniable, his size/skating combo are tantalizing and almost rare, but needs a ton of development and coaching to complete a very raw game
21 LD Cam York outstanding puck-handler/distributor, top-pairing upside but good-but-not-great skating and slightly undersized
22 C John Beecher another guy I have higher than most, but I love him -- big tough C with offensive acumen reminiscent of a young Ryan Kesler or David Backes
23 RD Moritz Seider huge specimen and an excellent skater who does everything well, may be more NHL-ready than many higher than him on this list
24 RD Lassi Thomson can skate the lights out and create magic with the puck, not afraid to muck it up in his own zone, another under appreciated kid in this draft
25 RW Bobby Brink won't wow at the combine with his size/speed, but wow can he light up the scoresheet, just a pure sniper
26 RW Rafael Lavoie big RW can shoot and score from the dirty areas, a beast along the boards
27 LW Robert Mastrosimone undersized winger oozes smarts/skill, plays with non-stop engine and deadly sniping ability
28 LW Nils Hoglander also small but incredibly tough/strong for his size, plays a very physical, in-your-face style and has loads of skill with the puck
29 C Ryan Suzuki very skilled puck-distributing wizard will be an excellent 2C in the NHL
30 C Yegor Spiridonov big, rangy C plays two ways and does everything well, flying under the radar but can be a terrific find as far as the late second round
31 W Yegor Afanasyev big, skilled and smooth on his skates; has lit up USHL with outstanding offensive tool-box
32 C Jamieson Rees jersey-flapping wheels with radar-like passing ability; if not for injury plagued season would be ranked higher by most
33 C Oleg Zaitsev big, physical C plays two-ways and may have untapped offensive upside
34 LD Ville Heinola teflon-slick D is greater than the sum of his parts, very high floor
35 RD Kaeden Korczak best physical defensive D after Robertson is the kind of guy you want on your team
36 RD Case McCarthy very similar to #35 Korczak, but just a tick less polished
37 C/RW Ryder Donovan tantalizing mix of size, sniping ability and speed but tough to judge as his only competition was in the Minnesota USHS circuit
38 RW Maxim Cajkovic incredible skill level has not led to big numbers in the Q, but could be a mid-round steal
39 LW Samuel Poulin big power winger who can shoot the lights out and works his rear end off
40 RD Antti Tuomisto huge with very good skating, plays with physicality and offensive skill

Click to read more...

 

[My3Sons]

Your descriptions make it sound like a very deep draft. Hopefully NJ can maximize their picks this year. Would love to find some way to get back into the first round with those extra seconds.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Your descriptions make it sound like a very deep draft. Hopefully NJ can maximize their picks this year. Would love to find some way to get back into the first round with those extra seconds.

I would not trade up unless someone fell dramatically into the mid-to-late 20s. Caufield is a guy who could be the next DeBrincat, for instance, but there are many NHL scouts/GMs who will still fight against drafting a 5'7 winger in the first round. If Caufield dropped into the 20s, sure I would trade up. But some of the guys in my top 30 (Beecher, Thomson, Brink, Mastrosimone, Spiridonov) will be available for the Devils with the #33 or #34 overall pick.

Also keep in mind that many guys routinely found as first-rounders were left out of my own top 30 (Broberg, Dorofeyev, Leason, Vlasic) and G Spencer Knight will likely be taken in the top 25. So, could a player who I rank higher than most like Tomasino, McMichael or Harley conceivably fall to the early 30s? Sure -- it happened with Conor Timmins not long ago, and now Colorado has one of the highest-regarded defense prospects in the NHL.

 

[longislanddevil]

I would not trade up unless someone fell dramatically into the mid-to-late 20s. Caufield is a guy who could be the next DeBrincat, for instance, but there are many NHL scouts/GMs who will still fight against drafting a 5'7 winger in the first round. If Caufield dropped into the 20s, sure I would trade up. But some of the guys in my top 30 (Beecher, Thomson, Brink, Mastrosimone, Spiridonov) will be available for the Devils with the #33 or #34 overall pick.

Also keep in mind that many guys routinely found as first-rounders were left out of my own top 30 (Broberg, Dorofeyev, Leason, Vlasic) and G Spencer Knight will likely be taken in the top 25. So, could a player who I rank higher than most like Tomasino, McMichael or Harley conceivably fall to the early 30s? Sure -- it happened with Conor Timmins not long ago, and now Colorado has one of the highest-regarded defense prospects in the NHL.

@StevenToddIves: With Timmins and Makar in Colorado’s system, if all things are considered relatively equal by their scouting team, do you think they pick a forward over Byram if they have the third pick? Secondary scoring after their elite first line has been a problem. I know Detroit is probably borderline desperate for an elite D prospect as they have many good, young forwards on the big club and Zadina waiting in the wings (bad pun not intended). I’m curious as to what other non-playoff teams you feel could pull the trigger on Byram in the 3 slot. After tonight’s win, it’s looking increasingly likely we finish third worst (still a chance to “pass” the Kings and an outside shot Buffalo moves up (or is it down? Haha). This would yield a 47% chance the Devils have a top 4 pick, with the most likely result being we slide back one spot to number 4. I’m in the Byram camp after Hughes/Kakko so this is quite intriguing to me. Thank you in advance and once again, you are an incredible resource for this forum and your insight is greatly appreciated.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves: With Timmins and Makar in Colorado’s system, if all things are considered relatively equal by their scouting team, do you think they pick a forward over Byram if they have the third pick? Secondary scoring after their elite first line has been a problem. I know Detroit is probably borderline desperate for an elite D prospect as they have many good, young forwards on the big club and Zadina waiting in the wings (bad pun not intended). I’m curious as to what other non-playoff teams you feel could pull the trigger on Byram in the 3 slot. After tonight’s win, it’s looking increasingly likely we finish third worst (still a chance to “pass” the Kings and an outside shot Buffalo moves up (or is it down? Haha). This would yield a 47% chance the Devils have a top 4 pick, with the most likely result being we slide back one spot to number 4. I’m in the Byram camp after Hughes/Kakko so this is quite intriguing to me. Thank you in advance and once again, you are an incredible resource for this forum and your insight is greatly appreciated.

What's so fun about this draft is exactly what you are insinuating -- the level of intrigue and uncertainty for the #3 pick is just enormous. Who is taken relies heavily on which team is drafting third overall. Let's take a look at a few of the teams who can pick there and I will hypothesize who they would take:

Colorado: Cozens -- as you said, this is a team which needs secondary scoring and needs it fast
Los Angeles: Podkolzin -- the Kings are not competing any time soon and have no problem drafting Russians like some teams do
New Jersey: Byram -- Devils need D more than any position and Byram fits perfectly into team model while adding physical element they lack
Buffalo: Cozens -- the Sabres need D as well, but Cozens could fit as top RW with Eichel or second-line C if Mittelstadt dealt for D
Detroit: Byram -- no doubt in my mind, Wings loaded with young Fs and desperate on blueline
Rangers: Podkolzin -- though NY needs #1C, their Euro scouts rule the roost and love players like this
Anaheim: Dach -- Ducks love size and Dach is very comparable to Getzlaf, who could mentor him
Edmonton: Byram -- Oilers are paper-thin at LD and Byram would be best D prospect they have had since forever
Vancouver: Byram -- loaded with stud young Fs, Canucks are desperate on blueline and Byram plays locally for Vancouver Giants
Chicago: Turcotte -- GM Bowman loves speed and loves two-way Fs, Turcotte centering Kane would be exquisite
Minnesota: Podkolzin -- this team is desperate for a go-to star, Podkolzin's compete level and talent are undeniable
Philadelphia: Cozens -- Flyers are loaded with talent in the pipeline, but have no one similar to Cozens size/skill/speed combo at C

Of course, I could be wrong -- I'm not working for any of these teams. But this type of hypothetical is fun for me.

 

[JrFischer54]

i dont pretend to know anything about the draft but #4 would fit exactly what shero wants imo. two way with offensive upside if the devils land outside the top 2 and hes there i can see shero going there

 

[MartyOwns]

great write up, thank you! i still prefer cozens to turcotte, but for me that seems to flip back and forth on a weekly basis

 

[TBF1972]

Minnesota: Podkolzin -- this team is desperate for a go-to star, Podkolzin's compete level and talent are undeniable

Minnesota is still waiting for Kaprizov. Does this not impact their desire to pick a player like Podkolzin?

 

[HobokenIrish]

I'm going to wait until after the lottery to do another mock draft, which is far different than my personal rankings, because I also study the organizational tendencies/needs.

I'm going to do a top 40 now, but will probably do a top 62 the week of the draft in June. I'd like to add a note that this list is just for skaters, not goaltenders. Spencer Knight is likely to be a first round pick, and no disrespect to him for not including him.

1 C Jack Hughes perhaps the best edge work of any skater we've ever seen, a future 100-point scorer.
2 W Kappo Kakko the complete package, brilliant in every respect, likened to Peter Forsberg on the wing
3 LD Bowen Byram electrifying skater, dynamic offensively, physical/smart/competitive defensively
4 C Alex Turcotte best two-way F in the draft also has unbelievable offensive upside and off-the-charts compete level
5 W Vasili Podkolzin incredible mix of offensive skill/physicality/compete level, plays like a Tkachuk
6 C/RW Dylan Cozens no weakness in his game, terrific mix of size/speed/shot/skill/two-way game but may lack elite offensive vision of some other top 10 Fs
7 LW Peyton Krebs incredible mix of speed/puckhandling/compete level, future NHL captain
8 C Kirby Dach elite size/vision/passing/two-way reminiscent of Getzlaf, good skater but not elite like other top-10 Cs listed here
9 C Trevor Zegras like Hughes-lite -- just an incredible offensive player, hands and skates are sick... though I have him at #9, there is not a lot of distance between #3 and #9 on my list
10 C Alex Newhook brilliant skater/shooter/play-maker, potential home run pick
11 RW Cole Caulfield best pure shooter in the entire draft, if he were 6'0 or a bit faster he could go top 5
12 W Matthew Boldy silky smooth winger is very good in every respect, reminds me of Mark Stone
13 W Arthur Kaliyev most polarizing player in 2019, incredible shooter and scorer, questions about 200-foot game but 50-goal (!) upside if he puts it all together
14 C Philip Tomasino as underrated as anyone in this draft, incredibly skilled with jersey-flapping speed and a regular on the highlight reels, I'm convinced he has NHL 1C upside
15 C Connor McMichael very good at every aspect of the game, just a great skater and whip-smart on the ice
16 RD Viktor Soderstrom terrific skater, smart as any D in this draft, wonderful skill -- he's moving up with a bullet on my rankings
17 LD Matthew Robertson I tend to rank physical, stay-at-home D higher than most -- Robertson is smart, tough, has good skill/smarts and could blossom into Vlasic-like shut-down beast
18 LW Nicholas Robertson undersized sniper could be a steal in the second round, ball of energy and tons of fun to watch
18 (tie) LW Jakob Pelletier I have a tie here -- Pelletier is very similar to Robertson in size/skill/heart at the same position
20 LD Thomas Harley his offensive skill is undeniable, his size/skating combo are tantalizing and almost rare, but needs a ton of development and coaching to complete a very raw game
21 LD Cam York outstanding puck-handler/distributor, top-pairing upside but good-but-not-great skating and slightly undersized
22 C John Beecher another guy I have higher than most, but I love him -- big tough C with offensive acumen reminiscent of a young Ryan Kesler or David Backes
23 RD Moritz Seider huge specimen and an excellent skater who does everything well, may be more NHL-ready than many higher than him on this list
24 RD Lassi Thomson can skate the lights out and create magic with the puck, not afraid to muck it up in his own zone, another under appreciated kid in this draft
25 RW Bobby Brink won't wow at the combine with his size/speed, but wow can he light up the scoresheet, just a pure sniper
26 RW Rafael Lavoie big RW can shoot and score from the dirty areas, a beast along the boards
27 LW Robert Mastrosimone undersized winger oozes smarts/skill, plays with non-stop engine and deadly sniping ability
28 LW Nils Hoglander also small but incredibly tough/strong for his size, plays a very physical, in-your-face style and has loads of skill with the puck
29 C Ryan Suzuki very skilled puck-distributing wizard will be an excellent 2C in the NHL
30 C Yegor Spiridonov big, rangy C plays two ways and does everything well, flying under the radar but can be a terrific find as far as the late second round
31 W Yegor Afanasyev big, skilled and smooth on his skates; has lit up USHL with outstanding offensive tool-box
32 C Jamieson Rees jersey-flapping wheels with radar-like passing ability; if not for injury plagued season would be ranked higher by most
33 C Oleg Zaitsev big, physical C plays two-ways and may have untapped offensive upside
34 LD Ville Heinola teflon-slick D is greater than the sum of his parts, very high floor
35 RD Kaeden Korczak best physical defensive D after Robertson is the kind of guy you want on your team
36 RD Case McCarthy very similar to #35 Korczak, but just a tick less polished
37 C/RW Ryder Donovan tantalizing mix of size, sniping ability and speed but tough to judge as his only competition was in the Minnesota USHS circuit
38 RW Maxim Cajkovic incredible skill level has not led to big numbers in the Q, but could be a mid-round steal
39 LW Samuel Poulin big power winger who can shoot the lights out and works his rear end off
40 RD Antti Tuomisto huge with very good skating, plays with physicality and offensive skill

Awesome write up. Thanks!!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Minnesota is still waiting for Kaprizov. Does this not impact their desire to pick a player like Podkolzin?

Maybe. But it's a new GM in Paul Fenton.

 

[None Shall Pass]

@StevenToddIves you do God's work, and though I don't normally comment on it, I just wanted to let you know that it is appreciated!

 

[longislanddevil]

The Kings need all kinds of help. Do they have any highly touted D in their pipeline? I wonder what the odds are of them taking Byram at 3 or 4...,

 

[OmNomNom]

The Kings need all kinds of help. Do they have any highly touted D in their pipeline? I wonder what the odds are of them taking Byram at 3 or 4...,

they have kale clague and joey anderson's bro mikey

 

[StevenToddIves]

The Kings need all kinds of help. Do they have any highly touted D in their pipeline? I wonder what the odds are of them taking Byram at 3 or 4...,

Of course, it's possible the Kings would take Byram at #3 or #4. The only position I think they can be considered deep in organizationally is center, where they made two outstanding picks last year in Rasmus Kupari and Akil Thomas (who may project to a wing at the NHL level) and have Gabe Vilardi from the 2017 draft. But Podkolzin would make a ton of sense there -- they have no high-scoring wingers in the system aside from perhaps Jaret Anderson-Dolan, and no wingers close to as physical as Podkolzin. But @OmNomNom is correct that they are thin at D beyond two mid-pairing prospects in Clague and Anderson.

 

[StevenToddIves]

great write up, thank you! i still prefer cozens to turcotte, but for me that seems to flip back and forth on a weekly basis

They're both outstanding prospects.

Cozens is bigger and a better pure goal scorer, but Turcotte's skating, vision and compete level are just unbelievable. I can't watch enough film on the kid. I don't think I've ever seen a draft-eligible center backcheck more tenaciously. My only problem with ranking Turcotte #4 is that he's "only" #4. I think the kid's a can't-miss NHL star.

 

[OmNomNom]

Of course, it's possible the Kings would take Byram at #3 or #4. The only position I think they can be considered deep in organizationally is center, where they made two outstanding picks last year in Rasmus Kupari and Akil Thomas (who may project to a wing at the NHL level) and have Gabe Vilardi from the 2017 draft. But Podkolzin would make a ton of sense there -- they have no high-scoring wingers in the system aside from perhaps Jaret Anderson-Dolan, and no wingers close to as physical as Podkolzin. But @OmNomNom is correct that they are thin at D beyond two mid-pairing prospects in Clague and Anderson.

actually, to add to it (i had to google), kings got rights to sean durzi (they just signed him yesterday) from the muzzin trade, so that's another D

 

[Better Call Sal]

they have kale clague and joey anderson's bro mikey

Kale Clague?

Sounds like a Saved by the Bell villain.

@StevenToddIves thank you as always for the work you do with this!

 

[MartyOwns]

They're both outstanding prospects.

Cozens is bigger and a better pure goal scorer, but Turcotte's skating, vision and compete level are just unbelievable. I can't watch enough film on the kid. I don't think I've ever seen a draft-eligible center backcheck more tenaciously. My only problem with ranking Turcotte #4 is that he's "only" #4. I think the kid's a can't-miss NHL star.

the only advantage cozens has in my mind is that turcotte seems a little redundant with nico already here. i’d really like a center that can consistently put up 30+ goals a year. we haven’t had that since parise

 

[Cheddabombs]

I am very excited for this draft, sooo many good players to choose from wherever we end up. I must say that I can't remember a time I was this excited about a prospect in Kakko, so I really want to get 2nd overall (I think Hughes goes 1st no matter what). But the "consolation" prize of getting lower than that would still be amazing.

I'm still leaning Podkolzin right after Byram, but Turcotte is sneaking is sneaking his way up there too. Krebs and Cozens are sort of in the same tier, and I use tier very loosely because like STI said there's not much separating the guys from 3-9, but and I think I even lean Krebs there. It's odd that a guy like Cozens is kind of slipping (in my personal rankings only) because he's so talented, but there's a lot of solid competition.

One week today baby, bless us with another lottery win Hall

 

[Colin226]

I hate to feel like we absolutely need a top-2 pick to speed up the rebuild but....

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

For me, if the devils win a top 4 pick their rebuild is going to be in very good shape (hughes, kakko, byram, turcotte). Yes the hughes and kakko are the prize but byram and turcotte are very good players too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I am very excited for this draft, sooo many good players to choose from wherever we end up. I must say that I can't remember a time I was this excited about a prospect in Kakko, so I really want to get 2nd overall (I think Hughes goes 1st no matter what). But the "consolation" prize of getting lower than that would still be amazing.

I'm still leaning Podkolzin right after Byram, but Turcotte is sneaking is sneaking his way up there too. Krebs and Cozens are sort of in the same tier, and I use tier very loosely because like STI said there's not much separating the guys from 3-9, but and I think I even lean Krebs there. It's odd that a guy like Cozens is kind of slipping (in my personal rankings only) because he's so talented, but there's a lot of solid competition.

One week today baby, bless us with another lottery win Hall

Like you, I'm rooting for a lottery win. But since the odds are against that, just know that picking #3 thru #6 the Devils will get a great player, and don't be too upset if the Devils don't get Hughes or Kakko.

 

[StevenToddIves]

the only advantage cozens has in my mind is that turcotte seems a little redundant with nico already here. i’d really like a center that can consistently put up 30+ goals a year. we haven’t had that since parise

In my personal opinion, Cozens scores more goals per year but Turcotte gets more points per year and is a better two-way center, if that helps you with your preference.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

@StevenToddIves How is turcotte with deflections? He could rack up a lot of goals that way like Parise did, even if his shot isn't as good as the others in the draft. From what I've seen I didn't see any indication it's particularly a strength but I haven't watched every video out there of this kid (not yet at least)

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves How is turcotte with deflections? He could rack up a lot of goals that way like Parise did, even if his shot isn't as good as the others in the draft. From what I've seen I didn't see any indication it's particularly a strength but I haven't watched every video out there of this kid (not yet at least)

Turcotte is usually on the being-deflected side of deflections. Although he is a very good finisher, he is an unbelievable creator of offense. He's not very comparable to Parise. The comparison I keep coming up with is Nico Hischier, but it's imperfect. Turcotte's greatest strengths are his skating, two-way play and compete level. He is relentless on both sides of the puck, you don't just notice him every shift but pretty much every moment of every shift. But we also can't sleep on his offensive upside, which is immense. These are just some of the reasons I bumped him up over Cozens and Podkolzin in my rankings -- and those are two prospects I just love. If I had to bet on one forward in the 2019 draft who has a chance to be the "Elias Pettersson" (guy who goes very high but we all realize soon after he should have gone even higher), it's Turcotte.