Steblick's 2006 Draft Top 70+ Picks

[Offside]

Steblick, what is your opinion of Andreas Nodl? Have been reading about him lately. Any opinions that you could provide would be great.

Great read btw.

 

[stocker]

Good job Steblick.You should go write for the Hockey News.

 

[chsb]

Good job and nice read, Steblick!

I am personally surprised to see that you don't have Mathieu Carle among your first two rounds...
Any particular reason?

 

[RightKinger]

Frolik is ranked where I would place him if I hadn't heard the hype or knew of his rating when he was a 15-16 year old- in other words an honest assessment. His upward curve is questionable but in terms of his actual play I see difficulties in meshing with his teammates. He overhandles the puck and steers himself into nowheresville. He looks good on the rush and comes back with energy but actually seems to achieve or produce very little (unlike Tlusty).

Great job man. Do you think Frolik has as much talent as Kessel but has yet to put it all together? Why do some people have him so high if he hasnt produced much the last year and a half? I know he has nothing to do with this years draft but what is your opinion on Anze Kopitar?

 

[Whawks33]

I'd rate Frazer McLaren of Portland ahead of Lucic as McLaren's skating is a better projection to pro IMO. Plus he has more size and outright heavyweight potential. CSS has Lucic 43 spots ahead of McLaren however. CSS has Lucic as the #13 player from the WHL and McLaren as #23 while I have Lucic at #26 and McLaren at #23.

The one thing I can add about McLaren is this kid has improved every year, especially his skating. His rookie year was brutal. Paint dried quicker than McLaren skated. He drastically improved his skating his second year, and continued that improvement his third year. Upside is a much over used word IMHO, but in McLaren's case it does fit. He has the size (6'5" 226lbs), work ethic and the williness to work on his weaknesses. Lot of upside and potential there.

 

[Hiishawk]

On Nodl: I haven't seen his USHL play but I remember him well from the Austrian team (with Rotter) before that. Lots of raw offensive talent but some questions about grit and jam. I've been hearing similar things this year. Other reports are welcome. He should be a 3rd rounder.

Carle has quite a few holes- mobility, defensive positioning and awareness. He handles the puck well to be sure but I see these flaws as near fatal for the NHL. I'm sure some teams don't and will take him higher.

Frolik vs. Kessell- I think Frolik's age group has caught up to him. He was the elite 88 talent a year or two ago but not nearly so now. I've seen that a lot in the past- the top guy(s) at 15 or 16 can become footnotes by age 18 or 19. Again, it's all about upside.

 

[MaV]

Seppanen I saw in Vancouver and in Russia and I felt (and apparently so did CSB) that he had improved greatly on his draft year and was the most effective, consistent Finnish shutdown guy on the U20 team, ahead of captain Leinonen. But there's always a big question mark with players who went undrafted last year. How was he with IFK?

That's the funny thing. I saw CSB says he trying to play mistake free game, but game in Finnish junior league is pretty much the other way around, playing mostly offense and taking risks too. But maybe he can play in different roles. I think he was better than expected in SM-liiga, in WJCs he stuggled with the pace I think, but he was more confortable here. The role was limited, mostly as 7th dman, but some shifts even on PP etc.

 

[God Bless Canada]

steblick,

A fantastic job. One of the best posts I've seen in nearly two years here. It will serve me well as the draft approaches, and for my fantasy draft. I was going to ask if you were part of the rankings for the Draft Preview (I know that you're a scout), but when I saw how high Nigel Williams was rated, I knew you weren't a part of it. THN's loss, I guess.

We aren't going to agree on everything, but that's great. An intelligent, respectful discussion/disagreement with a strong poster is what I enjoy most about these boards. For example, I think you have Bryan Little a little low. IMO, he's the second-most offensively skilled player in the draft, after Kessel. Little strikes me as a Marc Savard/Cory Stillman type: a player who isn't one of the league's top offensive players, but all he ever does is put up points on a yearly basis, and finish in the top 20 scorers, with the potential to finish in the top 10.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

I'm not sure what the differance is between a pro scout and a 16-year-old autistic kid with a big obsession.....

I think you mean you don'tmknow what the similarity is.

Sorry about the misunderstanding. Autistic people, as you probably know, are often geniuses - usually in one specific area that doesn't mean a whole lot. Not to belittle the hockey scouting and prospect development world, but it is meaningless in the grand scheme of life. If you can make your passion your occupation, rock on! So, what I mean is that this particular subject is one an autistic kid might become fixated on, that's all. And because that kid is a genius, it'd be difficult to tell him apart from a pro scout, especially on the internet.

Personally, just by reading his posts, I tend to believe Steblick's scouting status. Can I be sure? No. Can anyone else be sure? No, but some people are a little naive, at the risk of sounding rude. I just get fed up with the ***-kissing and reliance on a single individual's evaluations. Unfortunately I already mentioned Steblick's name, but it goes for many people who are generally believed to be "insiders." He even said, it's not a science and anyone's guess is as good as the next guy's. Maybe because he brought up that concept, people will follow it.

In any case, I think MOST of us are adults here, and I hope I didn't make anyone uncomfortable.

 

[timlap]

. . . Autistic people, as you probably know, are often geniuses - . . .

This is a popular myth (made more popular by movies) but it's not reflective of reality, and it's not a particularly helpful myth either for autistic people or for their families.

I realise you are really posting about something else (or else just jousting) but the issue is important to some people I know. Thus endeth the lesson . . .

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Well, thanks for clearing it up then. See I'd always read that they were average to genius... Astberger's I'm talking about... oh well, it wasn't the point.

I don't think anyone should be offended by what I said. And if they are, tough ****, I didn't say anything bad.

 

[reffree]

Steblick, where do you see David Kveton ?

Could he be a 2nd, 3rd rounder ?

thanks !

 

[Hiishawk]

Steblick, where do you see David Kveton ?

Could he be a 2nd, 3rd rounder ?

thanks !

Kveton is highly-skilled but smallish and doesn't get involved or seem to like fighting through traffic too much, a perimeter player. I think his progress has stalled this year- and that seems to be the consensus from the Czech Republic. Someone will probably take him in the mid or late rounds.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Kveton is highly-skilled but smallish and doesn't get involved or seem to like fighting through traffic too much, a perimeter player. I think his progress has stalled this year- and that seems to be the consensus from the Czech Republic. Someone will probably take him in the mid or late rounds.

I wouldn't be suprised if he was overlooked completely.

From what I have heard, he is NOT showing a willingness to come over and with his complete lack of progress... well I think a LOT of teams will be avoiding him at all costs and waiting till he gets older to see if he progresses. Who knows with a kid like him, though. No doubt he's skilled, just doesn't seem to have any heart or will.

 

[Hiishawk]

Good job Steblick.You should go write for the Hockey News.

You may see bits of what I've said written there

By the way, I'm not a full-time scout now (I wouldn't be writing frank opinions here if I was)- although I've scouted full-time before- but I have a few draft/amateur hockey-related jobs and roles that lets me travel and see games, as well as a regular job.

Anyway, I've said about all I will on my picks for the draft. For a more rounded, complete analysis buy one of the upcoming draft guides (ISS, Young Guns, McKeen's, THN etc.). They're all good.

 

[firstroundbust]

good read steblick-


if you dont mind I'll throw out a few names here, could you give us some insight?

Matt Corrente
Blake Geoffrion
Ryan Flynn

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

Here are my first two rounds (ratings, not a mock), plus a few extra “compensation picksâ€, for the 2006 draft.

The ranking is based upon a number of factors. Primary are my own reactions upon seeing the players play both live (preferable) and on TV (passable). Second is from scouts’ (and other hockey people’s) talk, often taken with a grain of salt. Third are ranking services, such as CSB, Redline, ISS, McKeen’s, Top Guns. The less I’ve seen a player, the more I rely on the latter two factors. Some of the players listed, I have not seen.

By the way, the Russians playing within their hockey federation have an * by their names. I put them where they should go in an ideal world but with no IIHF agreement, they could all actually go much later.

1st round
1. Kessel- Dynamic upside. Has that “special†quality.
...
75. Marcinko- Top Slovakian prospect is in the same boat as Lagerstrom but has too much upside to ignore.
Did I miss anyone? I don’t think so. After this it’s a free-for-all.

One guy you missed in this excellent post was Finland's Robert Nyholm, who is creeping up Good player who always plays best on small North American rinks ...

Oooh, I'd love it if the Wings could get him in the late second round.

 

[Hiishawk]

I didn't forget Nystrom. He just didn't make my list. He's never made a real impression on me. He lacks a distinctive skill or quality that says "NHL" to me.

Corrente, someone will grab him in the top 90, but he doesn't do it for me because he is a tweener size-wise (not sure how that toughness will stand up in the pros), wildly inconsistent (although he was very good in the Prospects' Game) and prone to enormous gaffes (excellent shot though).

Flynn plays only a minor, undistinguished role on the US team.

Two I would add to my list as of today are Felix Schutz, who by all accounts, was excellent at the World A Championships (Senior) for Germany, and Kulemin, who has made the Russian WC roster (let's see how he performs there).

 

[FearTheFlyers]

Steblick I'm curious as to what you see in Nick Foligno to rank him so high?

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

I didn't forget Nystrom. ).

Nyholm?

 

[Lowetide]

Always enjoy this every year, thanks for doing it Steblick.

 

[Hiishawk]

Nyholm?

Ooops. Nyholm. And I didn't forget Nystrom either- yup his OT goal won the Islanders their first Cup.

BTW- I like Foligno because he's a well-rounded, consummate pro-type player. He plays hard in all 3 zones and is very, very hockey smart. I've seen him stickhandle through opposition, powerskate his way to the net, knock his man down along the boards to gain control and take the puck out of a crowd (he's particularly good in crowds and in tight). He's intense and emotional (even dirty)- the latter quality being his biggest weakness right now, a bit of on-ice immaturity and lack of discipline at times. Other players really hate to play against him (i've heard it said on many occasions).

 

[X-SHARKIE]

Ooops. Nyholm. And I didn't forget Nystrom either- yup his OT goal won the Islanders their first Cup.

BTW- I like Foligno because he's a well-rounded, consummate pro-type player. He plays hard in all 3 zones and is very, very hockey smart. I've seen him stickhandle through opposition, powerskate his way to the net, knock his man down along the boards to gain control and take the puck out of a crowd (he's particularly good in crowds and in tight). He's intense and emotional (even dirty)- the latter quality being his biggest weakness right now, a bit of on-ice immaturity and lack of discipline at times. Other players really hate to play against him (i've heard it said on many occasions).

Yeah, I've heard people question his decision making with the puck and I see the exact opposite, he's creative, he can dish off a great pass in the face of pressure. Overall I just see a savvy player who can distribute the puck very well.

 

[kruezer]

I see much the same from Foligno, he has some very underrated skills that should transfer very well to the pro level IMO, however he really needs to grow up, he is very easily distracted on the ice, it killed him in Sudbury's series against the Petes, he is the opposite of Jarome Iginla, he is the kind of guy that you can rile up and get off his game.

I think that can be cured by getting on with a team with good leadership. I would be extatic if Calgary was able to grab him.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Great thread.. have been looking for your post

as I enjoyed last year's analysis.

We just don't get this type of analysis in Columbus (We don't get any Jr's coverage), and those that could talk about it - those in the organization or guys like John Markel, wouldn't waste their time because the average Joe is to busy worrying about other sports.

Thanks for giving us a preview.. I may not know of the kids but at least I have some perspective on who is out there by position thanks to reading all the posts.

Two questions for you - if a team had a high 2nd round pick and is greatly in need of a large shut down blue liner - who would you put your coin on Steblick? If there was one dman you would consider overpaying for besides EJ, who would that be?

Thanks again to the forum..