Steblick's 2006 Draft Top 70+ Picks

Ryan Van Horne

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Dec 1, 2005
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This is what Hockey's Future's all about

steblick said:
Here are my first two rounds (ratings, not a mock), plus a few extra “compensation picksâ€, for the 2006 draft.

The ranking is based upon a number of factors. Primary are my own reactions upon seeing the players play both live (preferable) and on TV (passable). Second is from scouts’ (and other hockey people’s) talk, often taken with a grain of salt. Third are ranking services, such as CSB, Redline, ISS, McKeen’s, Top Guns. The less I’ve seen a player, the more I rely on the latter two factors. Some of the players listed, I have not seen.

:clap:
Great job, dude. This is what keeps me coming back. Lots of work, well thought out. This is what Hockey's Future is all about, IMHO. It's what makes it a gold mine for hockey fans. I greatly appreciate your comments on each player.

Just out of curiosity, do you keep notes on what other people say about players? Have you seen any/all of these players?

Again, fine work. That must have taken a lot of time.:amazed:
 
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timlap

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Jun 19, 2002
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A quality post, the kind that makes Hfboards a little more than just a place to share opinions. Your top 8 seems to represent a sort of consensus (not everyone has put Okposo in there, but the more informed people seem high on him), leading me to believe that there is a significant threshhold at #8.

Here are some questions for you:

Considering that Frolik and Tlusty posted similar numbers this season while playing for the same team, what specifically has led you to conclude that Tlusty is improving rapidly while Frolik has stopped getting better?

In the case of Bryan Little, are you mainly concerned about his size or do you feel there are other issues that make him a doubtful NHLer? His lack of speed has been mentioned by some, but he did reaonably well in the time trials at the prospects game.

I have a feeling at least three defencemen will go in the top 10. If I'm right, other than Johnson, who would you guess might sneak in there? Wishart and Sanguinetti? Or might someone take a flyer on someone else?

Just out of curiosity, from the 31st pick on, do you have a favourite pick who your gut says is going to be something special, even if your brain is being cautious for now?

Again, great thread. :)
 

burgundynblue

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Aug 7, 2005
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By the way, Daugavins has scored his first goal with the men's national team with his first shift and first shot! :eek: Not to mention that that goal came against Russia, one of the top teams.
 

Circulartheory

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Apr 22, 2006
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I wouldn't be surprised if Berra moved up to mid-2nd round, drafted by a team with a goalie need. But i also wouldn't be surprised if he moved into the late 3rd round...

Potential steal if they forget about the guy...
 

Blind Gardien

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Enjoyable read as always. Thanks, steblick! :clap: I won't dare to question your rankings in any way, since I think it should be clear to everybody by now that this is a year with an extremely wide open field which has a great deal of latitude past the top-15 or so, and it will certainly all be about personal perspective, of which yours is probably the most respected one on these boards. Instead I will chip in a few comments of my own, from my largely OHL-based observations:
steblick said:
22. Little- The guy just scores and scores. Can he do it at the next level? I hope he proves that this rating is too low.
Per some previous discussions in other threads, I do agree that there is a chance that Little falls this low. But I'll maintain that it's going to be a big mistake if he does.
42. Ryan- Tough, reliable, consistent. Will not excite you but get the job done.
43. Weber- Pretty close to Ryan in terms of style, with a touch more jazz in his play.
44. Peckham- Intense, ferocious and colorful player. He can be scary- for his own team too!
66. Williams- If the U18 team doesn’t have the confidence to play him even as a 6th guy…
In a draft with a lot of wild cards and little consensus, I think there are always going to be NHL teams who find a personal favourite based on intangibles like character and toughness. Or just plain size. Or some combination of such attributes. Even last year with all those Pelech and Pokulok, Finley and Mihalik picks, it was clear enough again that NHL teams will still place a high value on character/size/toughness. So I can imagine some defensemen such as those in this group having a fan-team out there that pulls one of them into the 1st round. It's impossible at this stage to predict which one(s) will get that break, but it seems likely that it will happen, IMO.

Williams is such an interesting question mark now... I kept hoping I'd finally get to see him in the WU-18 to see what all the top-10 hype was about, but then he played just 1 (brutal) shift against Finland, and nothing much more. Can't bode well as you say. But then, even as a flavour-of-the-month prospect, it seems like more than one somebody likes him. I agree with putting him waaay down on a personal ranking list, of course. But it sounds like he'll go much higher.
56. Emmerton- He lacks an identifiable NHL skill or strength. Call me a doubter. I hope I’m wrong.
I don't think you're wrong. He's sort of like this year's Daniel Ryder. A little bit bigger, maybe a bit better skater. But I agree that his #10 ranking by CSB is a bit overboard, especially when it comes down to projecting where NHL teams are going to take him. I don't read too much into his showing at the WU-18, I didn't find he really got used consistently in a role where he could establish chemistry, and that's an important element to his game, but when he gets it, he does subtly and smartly make the players around him better. He's a good candidate to drop into the 2nd round in the NHL, but I think he's also a good candidate for making the team which gets him there reasonably happy to get a smart player like him down there. On the other hand, as a Habs fan, I've also seen what Matt Higgins and Duncan Milroy have amounted to as pros, which is probably a risk for Emmerton too.
70. Shutron- Hopefully he’s improved his decision-making but I’m not sure what he brings to the table other than slick skating. Please prove me wrong, Ben.
I still like Shutron better than most of the other defensemen in this draft. I wouldn't call him a slick skater, really. In fact, I probably wouldn't praise very many of his physical skills, except the shot, I guess. What I would want to know about him is more about his character and his psychological profile, his leadership potential, etc. I still feel like he reminds of something of a Mike Green, not really a defenseman who is easily pigeon-holed or categorized, but has an intangible ability to play suprisingly well in either end at times. Which tends to clash with some of the other reviews I read where he gets labelled more definitively as an offense-only guy. :dunno:
 

Joe Hallenback

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Mar 4, 2005
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I saw Williams play twice this year against College opponents and while he is a raw talent I could see why he could be a top 10 pick. I was surprised that he didnt play at all during the U18s and was wondering maybe he was hurt or something.
 

inferno98

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steblick said:
12. Wishart- Ultra-poised, smart, steady. Needs to get meaner. Was only average at U18s.
14. Sangunietti- Offensive guy can step it up in big games. Sanguinetti is the very opposite of Wishart.

Not physically different: Neither have a chip on the shoulder
Not totally mentally different: There are some difference, which just have to do with their style
Style: Very different, which I assume is what you were trying to state?
 

Jack Splat

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Apr 8, 2006
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It's great to hear that you think Kessel could be another Lafleur, but plenty on these boards think that he won't be able to take his game to the NHL level. I'd hate to see him become the next Rico Fata. So have you seen enough of him to comment on his bust potential? Are you reasonably confident that he'll reach his upside?
 

King'sPawn

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Hey Steblick, thanks for the list. I was wondering what are your thoughts on Enroth? I was hoping the Kings could pick either him or Helenius in the second round.

Thanks for your time! :)
 

Blind Gardien

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Jack Splat said:
It's great to hear that you think Kessel could be another Lafleur, but plenty on these boards think that he won't be able to take his game to the NHL level. I'd hate to see him become the next Rico Fata. So have you seen enough of him to comment on his bust potential? Are you reasonably confident that he'll reach his upside?
:eek: Are there really plenty who think that Kessel won't be able to take his game to the NHL level? I dunno, maybe there are plenty who happen to like Johnson or Toews or whoever better, but... and I don't wade through all the Kessel lightning-rod threads or anything... I can't imagine there's anybody who seriously fears he could be the next Rico Fata? :dunno: Okay, *any* prospect has some miniscule room for bustage. But Kessel seems like a pretty sure bet.

What's his "upside"? Franchise-player? Who knows how that'll pan out. Speedy 30-goal guy seems like a pretty reasonable minimal expectation, though, to me. Definitely not Rico Fata, though. :dunno:
 

Fozz

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I have a feeling that Osala will go in the first round. There's always a team that jumps on really big-decent skating prospects.
 

Rabid Ranger

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Blind Gardien said:
:eek: Are there really plenty who think that Kessel won't be able to take his game to the NHL level? I dunno, maybe there are plenty who happen to like Johnson or Toews or whoever better, but... and I don't wade through all the Kessel lightning-rod threads or anything... I can't imagine there's anybody who seriously fears he could be the next Rico Fata? :dunno: Okay, *any* prospect has some miniscule room for bustage. But Kessel seems like a pretty sure bet.

What's his "upside"? Franchise-player? Who knows how that'll pan out. Speedy 30-goal guy seems like a pretty reasonable minimal expectation, though, to me. Definitely not Rico Fata, though. :dunno:


Kessel's "fall" as it were is one of the more mysterious (to me anyway) developments in recent hockey history. He wasn't as dynamic this past year as he or many would have thought but he still produced and exhibited the physical gifts that can be taken to the next level. Too many comparisons too early to Sidney Crosby me thinks.
 

Jack Splat

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Blind Gardien said:
:eek: Are there really plenty who think that Kessel won't be able to take his game to the NHL level? I dunno, maybe there are plenty who happen to like Johnson or Toews or whoever better, but... and I don't wade through all the Kessel lightning-rod threads or anything... I can't imagine there's anybody who seriously fears he could be the next Rico Fata? :dunno: Okay, *any* prospect has some miniscule room for bustage. But Kessel seems like a pretty sure bet.

What's his "upside"? Franchise-player? Who knows how that'll pan out. Speedy 30-goal guy seems like a pretty reasonable minimal expectation, though, to me. Definitely not Rico Fata, though. :dunno:
 

Jack Splat

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Whoops. Sorry about the previous. I'm new to this.

Just wanted to say thanks. I don't get to see these kids myself, either live or on tape, so I just have to go by rumors. It looks pretty likely that he'll end up in Pittsburgh, so I was wondering how much credence to give to the bashers. I figured that I ought to ask somebody with some credibility, and this seemed like the place.
 

Thirty One

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timlap said:
And haven't you seen enough drafts to lose the phrase, "absolutely no chance," forever? :)
don't fight it. in a couple drafts, he'll learn, but there will be a whole new batch of ones that don't.
 

King'sPawn

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-31- said:
don't fight it. in a couple drafts, he'll learn, but there will be a whole new batch of ones that don't.

There's absolutely no chance more newcomers will come in and use that phrase!
 

Nich

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Dec 8, 2004
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i hope to god little falls to the rangers at 21!!!!

sweet too because i got him in my EHM game.....along with sheppard ;)
 

Pipeandin

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X-Sharkie, I to was at that game and Williams did play better than Johnson. But who cares it was one game? And Williams was playing against his future team. Like you have said previously you only saw Williams play against Wisco and MSOE(big deal). That cannot be used to judge if Williams is a top 10 pick. From what I am reading he was unimpressive when he played at U18s. He's Boom or Bust. Im leaning on the bust side but who knows what could happen. You seem to be very very high on Williams. I am just wondering, why?. Do you see him as the best d-man in draft? top 5 top 10? biggest upside? Just trying to get a feel. Thanks
 

Hiishawk

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timlap said:
A quality post, the kind that makes Hfboards a little more than just a place to share opinions. Your top 8 seems to represent a sort of consensus (not everyone has put Okposo in there, but the more informed people seem high on him), leading me to believe that there is a significant threshhold at #8.

Here are some questions for you:

Considering that Frolik and Tlusty posted similar numbers this season while playing for the same team, what specifically has led you to conclude that Tlusty is improving rapidly while Frolik has stopped getting better?

In the case of Bryan Little, are you mainly concerned about his size or do you feel there are other issues that make him a doubtful NHLer? His lack of speed has been mentioned by some, but he did reaonably well in the time trials at the prospects game.

I have a feeling at least three defencemen will go in the top 10. If I'm right, other than Johnson, who would you guess might sneak in there? Wishart and Sanguinetti? Or might someone take a flyer on someone else?

Just out of curiosity, from the 31st pick on, do you have a favourite pick who your gut says is going to be something special, even if your brain is being cautious for now?

Again, great thread. :)
Thanks for all the positive comments. First, I don't see all the players. USHL and USHS and, to some extent, NCAA are uncharted territory for me but when I have the chance I pick insiders' brains on those areas.

Tlusty over Frolik seems to be consensus in the scouting community. Tlusty simply contributes more to his club team (gets a bigger role) and was clearly the catalyst, the go-to guy, on the Czech U18 team. Frolik hasn't improved much in a year and a half but Tlusty seems to get better every month and this upward momentum is EXTREMELY important to scouts.

Little has retained his momentum despute being under the magnifying glass for three years, which can cause analysts to pick apart his game- perhaps unfairly. I am impressed by his ability to produce which, in the end, is what it's all about. But, you know, he looks and plays a little like (here it comes) Dan Cleary did. I wish he had that extra gear to go along with his excellent hockey sense, not to mention a touch more in the height/reach department. I may be eating crow on this one, I admit. I always hope players who I downgrade prove me wrong.

Top 10 defencemen? I can only see the defencemen I've mentioned as possibly going top 10. Alexandrov, Tulupov and Persson are Europe's best but are certainly reaches for top 10 status.

Post #31 surprises? Tulupov maybe. Daugavins and Mursak are from lesser known hockey nations and still have some hockey left this year. They could make a final jump. OK- How about John Armstrong? He really polarizes people. He can look lost and lazy one night and could stand in for Benoit Pouliot or Jordan Staal on others. So, although I have him behind Foligno, I admit that if Armstrong fulfills his potential and utilizes his innate skills (which is the big qustion mark on the guy) he could end up top 20 worthy. Some fans don't like Foligno because he's abrasive, occasionally dirty and whines a bit too much but most scouts I've heard appreciate his intensity and his very well-rounded, mature game.
 

C-Saku Koivu MTL

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Aug 26, 2004
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could anyone give me information on this Clutterbuck guy. Solid numbers, seems very agressive with his PIM at 139. A bit on the small size. Does he have good speed, hands, hockey sense and vision. Could he become a Brenden Morrow type or not that good. Does he has that potential or more of a Tucker type guy. Thanks.
 

timlap

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Jun 19, 2002
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-31- said:
don't fight it. in a couple drafts, he'll learn, but there will be a whole new batch of ones that don't.
True enough. We see a similar cycle in many other ways on these boards. Still, once a year I can't stop myself from saying something.
 

timlap

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Jun 19, 2002
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steblick said:
. . .
Tlusty over Frolik seems to be consensus in the scouting community. . .

Little has retained his momentum despute being under the magnifying glass for three years, . . .

Top 10 defencemen? I can only see the defencemen I've mentioned as possibly going top 10. . .

Post #31 surprises? Tulupov maybe. Daugavins and Mursak are from lesser known hockey nations and still have some hockey left this year. They could make a final jump. OK- How about John Armstrong? . . .
Thanks for your detailed answers. They are appreciated. I will have to look more closely at John Armstrong, and Daugavins. Tlusty has been a favourite of mine for a while, and I hope for him for the Leafs at 13.

I will be interested to see if Nigel Williams snags a top ten pick, although I don't argue with your assessment of him.

I have a good feeling about Little, though I recognise that it's nothing more than a feeling and I am always interested in more concrete opinions.
 

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