Stats, Rants and Witchcraft. Oh my.

[Lecavilier_4]

So this has been a pretty tough season for everyone thus far. We started extremely strong and looked like we were preparing for a strong year. We found ourselves in trouble in different aspects at different parts of the year. The one thing I think we can all agree on is that since the start of the year we just haven't had a complete effort in any games.

Game to game, something has been a problem. When the offense is playing well the goaltending and defense have struggled. Since Garon has been starting, we have been getting some good goaltending performances but we haven't been getting the offense to support it. Until this team gets a full 60-minute, full team effort consistency, we are going to continue to be a non-playoff team.

Now for some startling stats. The biggest thing I have noticed is that this team has a complete inability to win the close one-goal games. Let's take a look at some of these games. I am going to leave out goals scored in the final minute (ie. empty netters for argument's sake).

Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.
Sat, Feb 2, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.
Tue, Feb 5, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.
Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal (SO).
Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.
Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Lose by 2 goals (one in last minute of play).
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.
Sat, Mar 2, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.
Mon, Mar 4, 2013 - Lose by 1 goal.

So we have 13 regulation losses and 8 of them were games in which we should have had a chance to at least get a point in. Now, lets take a look at our 9 wins:

WSH 6-3
CAR 4-1
OTT 6-4
PHI 5-1
FLA 5-2
WIN 8-3
FLA 6-5
TOR 4-2
CAR 5-2

In the games we have won, we outscore our opponents 49-23. If you look at the teams we have beat, 6 of our 9 wins have come from our own division. We have only beat TOR, OTT and PHI outside of our own division. This can also be looked at as a stat to tell the story as the only team from our division currently sitting in a playoff spot is Carolina and if they didn't have a guaranteed spot from the Division, they would only be sitting in 7th place just struggling to get in. The fact of the matter is that the Southeast is a terribly weak division this year.

If we are to have any hope at even getting into the playoffs the divisional games are going to become of utmost importance. Cam Ward going down, unfortunately to say, may be the best thing to happen to us this season. We need to win as many divisional games as possible to keep points away from teams in our division and we need to start winning some of these close games. If the Lightning were even taking half of these games to OT/SO, our record would be a lot differently.

So this comes to the discussion. What do YOU think our problems are? Do your feel specific individuals are to blame? Is the coaching staff (including goaltending coaching) not motivating and leading this team? Is the mediocre goaltending to blame for our woes? Is it really goaltending or is it the sub-par performance of our depth defensemen? Or is the lack of a complete package?

Post your comments, rants and burn players at the stake.

Thanks friends.

Sincerely yours,
The Amazing L4

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[Mr Underhill]

6 of our 9 wins came from our crappy division.

 

[Coopers Gum]

I'm starting to see what Boucher was saying.

Every single little mistake we make, the other team capitalizes on.

Here is who's fault it is, in order of importance:

The D. Top to bottom, every one of our D, besides Salo maybe, has played at least 2 or 3 ****** games. Or more. Dumb decisions, dumb passes mar our offense. Guy's system starts from the D, and molds it's way into offense.

Brewer has been /facepalm lately. Carle has noodle wrists. Lee is... Lee. Etc, etc.

The goalies are often hung out to dry. That isn't to say they've been rock solid either. Lindback is good for at least one softie per game, although tonight he didn't let a soft one in. Garon, as many people have stated, is a career backup. Average at best. But our team constantly hangs him out to dry. I feel bad for him sometimes.

Our Power Play. I really don't know what to say about it. Started off so hot, now it's on Pluto. It looked decent enough today. What I've noticed about other teams PPs is that they are constantly moving. We just stay still for the most part. 2 point men, 2 on the halfboards, one in the slot. We never really move.

Our top 6 has looked pretty good lately. They started off really badly, but they've picked it up. Marty especially. Stamkos, while he did score 2 tonight, was terrible defensively today. Bottom 6 is what you'd expect. I would REALLY like it if we could get some damn goals out of them. It's always the top that scores. We need that secondary scoring. The passing has gotten much better. Something else I've noticed watching other teams is the situational awareness of the players. They know exactly where their teammate is at all times and make sharp, quick, crisp passes that prove it.

Boucher is not to blame, nor are any other coaches. The D needs to take a good look in the mirror and step it up. Turnovers are costing us every single game. They need to stop. Make smart passes. We are all frustrated because this team is so much better than last year's, but they are somehow worse.

I really liked our physical game tonight and would love to see more of it.

Our call-ups have been godsends, really. They play with so much heart and determination. If you read all this, thank you. Sorry if it's a bit all over the place.

 

[Bolts4Life91]

It has been a really hard time to watch them play lately but there is still time to turn things around. Gotta be patient but at the same time we are losing time on the season. All it takes is to get to the 8th seed and who knows what could happen from there. Anyone with me?

 

[Glide5]

Well, the magic question is "How much confidence do we truely have?"
Do we believe our confidence will get it together in the long run consistently. Is our defense legitimate, or soft and flaky? Is our goal tending a product of the defense and mistakes, or just terrible? Is Guy's system good?

None of these questions have easy answers. This is a short season, so we are getting the entire up and down season in a few short months. So far all I know is that this team isnt good. In my opinion, we have a bad defense, decent goalies, offensive potential and Stamkos... which means we can steal some wins along the way.

I think we need to clean house with the assistant coaches, and maybe even Guy. I love Guy, and it hurts me to say that, but his system just may not work in the league. We lack toughness, and heart. At the least, we need a new goalie coach and new defense coach. nothing of that is working.

I dont know who we should get rid of player wise. I think Brewer is a good of start as any, as he has just been... mediocre at best these last two seasons. I think he would bring something decent because some team will take him. outside of that... I just dont know.

 

[jg39]

It has been a really hard time to watch them play lately but there is still time to turn things around. Gotta be patient but at the same time we are losing time on the season. All it takes is to get to the 8th seed and who knows what could happen from there. Anyone with me?

I'm with you on that one...all of it. We are playing like ****, but that doesn't mean we can't turn it around. We're 22 games into a 48 game season. There is time to turn it around, but our play has to be different.

To the OP's point of Ward's injury, I think the only way it may help us is Carolina's lead compared to the division. [FTR, I have sprained/partially torn an MCL before, and it really sucks.] However, regarding our play against Carolina, we haven't had a problem beating/looking like a real team against them. We have to play well against the Jets and Panthers b/c points against them are there for the taking.

Problems? Ourselves. These one goal losses, frequently, have come from our own mistakes. Horrible turnovers, bad passes, inopportune pinches, forchecking mistakes...

We can turn it around, but there's a lot of work to be done.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

It has been a really hard time to watch them play lately but there is still time to turn things around. Gotta be patient but at the same time we are losing time on the season. All it takes is to get to the 8th seed and who knows what could happen from there. Anyone with me?

I'm with you. Games like tonight are tough to swallow. We had the lead and played well for the most part, against the Pens in Pittsburgh, but we blew it in what was suppose to be our best period, the 3rd.

It's not impossible to turn it around and we aren't too far behind where we can't catch up, but right now it seems like there's nothing tougher than breaking out of this losing streak. Get one win and go from there I guess.