State of the Franchise: How Many Guys are Unplayable?

[Frk It]

Cholowski compares well to Hronek imo. Cholowski's strengths have been underrated and misinterpreted thus far in his career, and his weaknesses, I'm still not convinced are even weaknesses. It is a good thing for top-4 d-men to be passive defensively if they have good vision and scoring chance identification/iq.

Let's dive into this specifically, if we want to analyze his game in more detail.

It IS good to be passive defensively if you can sit back on your heels and be surgical with your poke check, like Lidstrom did. But has Cholowski exhibited a similar ability thus far in his career? Well, we had to pull him off his NCAA team because he wasn't getting minutes because he was only trusted in a sheltered role. He clearly couldn't handle playing bigger/stronger players. Then he went to Juniors, where playing against similarly/younger aged players he exhibited some 2 way ability and logged big minutes. He handled the jump pretty well to the AHL, but so far in NHL action he has gotten his doors blown in so far in his own end... again.

So we have seen this now over a large body of work where when he has to deal with bigger/faster/stronger players he has a propensity to look outmatched to the point where he gets removed from that situation. That is not a good thing. I think he has some good tools, I like his skating ability and his offensive game. But I think there have been some red flags so far that you just cannot simply ignore.

Hronek has been better every step of the way, and has shown a lot more push back and fight when he has faced adversity thus far. So I just don't really see how you could come to that conclusion personally. Seems like it is a really big reach at this point in time.

 

[vladdy16]

How could you say that as of today he compares well to Hronek? I mean that's just beyond ridiculous... there's no argument to be made there.

Do I think Cholowski catches too much flak on here? Yeah, for sure. But you are overcompensating for that drastically in your post that I quoted.

You didn't quote my post. You quoted a line from my post, that is bookended by the context that it was OP that initiated the context for a comparison between the two, and the next paragraph where I elaborate and make it obvious that I am speaking over the long term, where I absolutely do believe both players stack up pretty evenly as far as potential and potential for continued growth. The players observable OVR rating and accomplishments for this year being fairly irrelevant to that.

I would say that both players are less than blue chips, with a potential that could waver between a C+ to a B+, and they each have a 2-3 year window here to try and bump those grades up a notch and lock into a top 4 career. The fact that Hronek is rocking a 74 OVR with a (+3) 'usage and chemistry bonus' buff compared to Cholowski's 70 OVR with a fluctuating (+/- 3) 'f it I'm just gonna play my game bonus/debuff' doesn't sway me that strongly, aside for being happy that Hronek is getting credited for good work.

 

[vladdy16]

Let's dive into this specifically, if we want to analyze his game in more detail.

It IS good to be passive defensively if you can sit back on your heels and be surgical with your poke check, like Lidstrom did. But has Cholowski exhibited a similar ability thus far in his career?

Right on Frk! Thanks for this, and my answer to this question is an absolute yes, and I am happy to understand your inclination to defer to results and actual coaches as opposed to my personal eye test. But this is the part of Cholowski's game that I believe will eventually be his bread and butter.

Well, we had to pull him off his NCAA team because he wasn't getting minutes because he was only trusted in a sheltered role. He clearly couldn't handle playing bigger/stronger players. Then he went to Juniors, where playing against similarly/younger aged players he exhibited some 2 way ability and logged big minutes. He handled the jump pretty well to the AHL, but so far in NHL action he has gotten his doors blown in so far in his own end... again.

I believe you can look at this two ways. It may corroborate your view that Cholowski is the kind of prospect barely hanging onto the wagon. It may corroborate mine, that Cholowski's defensive impact skirts a fine line, and as he grows into bigger roles, gets more familiar with his surroundings, he then sees a significant uptick in his game management abilities.

So we have seen this now over a large body of work where when he has to deal with bigger/faster/stronger players he has a propensity to look outmatched to the point where he gets removed from that situation. That is not a good thing. I think he has some good tools, I like his skating ability and his offensive game. But I think there have been some red flags so far that you just cannot simply ignore.

Hronek has been better every step of the way, and has shown a lot more push back and fight when he has faced adversity thus far. So I just don't really see how you could come to that conclusion personally. Seems like it is a really big reach at this point in time.

I strongly disagree that it's a big body of work. I would say that for a late blooming, non-pedigreed western Canadien nerd muffin, Cholowski even reaching the NHL before 23-25 was a pretty ridiculous development. And I mildly to sincerely disagree that he has been challenged to step up against other teams bigger/faster/stronger players. Cholowski was used as a role player on a very short leash this year. He was playing with Nielson and Biega, against the other teams middle/bottom line dump, chase and cycle. He looks fine against top line players in open ice, and I believe that if you lengthen the leash, he'll find his way against top line players after about 100 struggles.

 

[DatsDeking]

Frans Nielsen is the most useless player I’ve ever seen in my life. Last game he literally ****ed up a drop pass... a drop pass! Like the kind you just leave there for someone. Where, to execute, you just don’t do anything. You just leave it there and skate away.

I was actually really excited about picking him up. But it’s like he had a hate for the red wings his entire life and signed here just to **** us. The switch that guy flipped was insanely drastic. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Part of me wonders if there was some kind of injury like with Weiss that has kept him back. I felt the Weiss signing was gonna be big for us too and that one seemed to go the same route as this.

 

[Frk It]

Right on Frk! Thanks for this, and my answer to this question is an absolute yes, and I am happy to understand your inclination to defer to results and actual coaches as opposed to my personal eye test. But this is the part of Cholowski's game that I believe will eventually be his bread and butter.




I believe you can look at this two ways. It may corroborate your view that Cholowski is the kind of prospect barely hanging onto the wagon. It may corroborate mine, that Cholowski's defensive impact skirts a fine line, and as he grows into bigger roles, gets more familiar with his surroundings, he then sees a significant uptick in his game management abilities.



I strongly disagree that it's a big body of work. I would say that for a late blooming, non-pedigreed western Canadien nerd muffin, Cholowski even reaching the NHL before 23-25 was a pretty ridiculous development. And I mildly to sincerely disagree that he has been challenged to step up against other teams bigger/faster/stronger players. Cholowski was used as a role player on a very short leash this year. He was playing with Nielson and Biega, against the other teams middle/bottom line dump, chase and cycle. He looks fine against top line players in open ice, and I believe that if you lengthen the leash, he'll find his way against top line players after about 100 struggles.

I think he is going to have to adapt his playing style a bit. I don't know that he is going to be able to play that passive game at the next level unless he learns how to gap better and adjusts his timing.

What I would almost rather try, is to have him adapt his game and encourage him to be a little more aggressive. I mean, he is no longer a skinny kid, pretty sure he is 200+ lbs now. When I first saw him, I was hoping that when he filled out he might resemble something like Alex Edler. Edler has always been a good offensive contributor, but he also has a little nastiness to him and will block shots. I think Cholowski is going to have to get a little bit of an edge, unless he is really able to refine his poke check and gap control. Sometimes you just gotta separate the man from the puck. Or at least make your opposition hesitate from trying to walk you with the puck.

Right now I think the gap between Hronek and Cholowski is pretty substantial. I hope Cholowski can close the gap over time, but it seems ambitious at the moment. I wish he was on one of our power play units over freaking Trevor Daley right now , I'll tell you that much. I want him back in Detroit, but he has to figure out a way to hold his own better in his end. Even if that requires doing some things a little outside his comfort zone.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Part of me wonders if there was some kind of injury like with Weiss that has kept him back. I felt the Weiss signing was gonna be big for us too and that one seemed to go the same route as this.

yeah nice call with the Weiss comp. I guess the fact that he never really played allowed me to not look as negatively on him as I do on Frans. When I watch, if there is an injury, it must be a head injury. Offensively the dude just looks like a toddler trying to play out there.

 

[MBH]

Ericsson.
Lashoff.
Daley.

That's about it in terms of "unplayable."
I think Bowey comes close to that line quite a lot.

Abdelkader, Nielsen, Erne, Perlini - Not unplayable. Just dime-a-dozen guys who, in Abby and Frans's case - get paid way too much.

 

[Killerjas]

The result of Holland believing we had a "chance" for the Stanley every damn year... Trading picks and prospects for crap and signing aging players until they are 38...

We are 3 years late to the rebuild...

 

[MBH]

Right now I think the gap between Hronek and Cholowski is pretty substantial. I hope Cholowski can close the gap over time, but it seems ambitious at the moment. I wish he was on one of our power play units over freaking Trevor Daley right now , I'll tell you that much. I want him back in Detroit, but he has to figure out a way to hold his own better in his end. Even if that requires doing some things a little outside his comfort zone.

I think Cholo's other main issue is that he's a blackhole offensively anywhere but the powerplay.
It's pretty hard to ignore that trend through parts of two seasons.
So - can't help offensively at 5 on 5. Offers no defensive assistance. What's left?

 

[Frk It]

I think Cholo's other main issue is that he's a blackhole offensively anywhere but the powerplay.
It's pretty hard to ignore that trend through parts of two seasons.
So - can't help offensively at 5 on 5. Offers no defensive assistance. What's left?

I imagine he is playing with much better players on the PP as opposed to ES? I feel like since we had AA/Vanek on our 3rd line our bottom 6 has offered little to no scoring at ES, and he is usually deployed with those players.

 

[vladdy16]

I think he is going to have to adapt his playing style a bit. I don't know that he is going to be able to play that passive game at the next level unless he learns how to gap better and adjusts his timing.

What I would almost rather try, is to have him adapt his game and encourage him to be a little more aggressive. I mean, he is no longer a skinny kid, pretty sure he is 200+ lbs now. When I first saw him, I was hoping that when he filled out he might resemble something like Alex Edler. Edler has always been a good offensive contributor, but he also has a little nastiness to him and will block shots. I think Cholowski is going to have to get a little bit of an edge, unless he is really able to refine his poke check and gap control. Sometimes you just gotta separate the man from the puck. Or at least make your opposition hesitate from trying to walk you with the puck.

Right now I think the gap between Hronek and Cholowski is pretty substantial. I hope Cholowski can close the gap over time, but it seems ambitious at the moment. I wish he was on one of our power play units over freaking Trevor Daley right now , I'll tell you that much. I want him back in Detroit, but he has to figure out a way to hold his own better in his end. Even if that requires doing some things a little outside his comfort zone.

I agree on the middle end of all that. Hronek is great, and will be one of my favorite players. We're just so far off the map as a team, that establishing yourself in that climate, to me there's still a lot to be seen. Advanced stats and good tracking of lineups I think makes people a little over confident in believing that you can set up reliable controls for hockey science. By September of next year, everyone is going to be back in the same boat all over again. And I still expect Hronek to look like a top-4 Chelios/Rafalski hybrid, but I think him standing out against the other prospects we have in his age group is a product of his character and the environment he is in right now to some extent, and I hope that guys like Ras and Cholowski and even Smith and Svech will be able to prove that we have a group to move forward with there, not a lone survivor or two.

I think they did try what you suggest, and give Cholowski a window to work on bumping bodies on the cycle as his sole concern, but instead his instincts just compound that situation, because he's playing down the lineup with a diminished partner and get's consumed with compensating by aborting and resetting once him or his partner lose their spot on the page. Again, another instance where two opposite sides might find corroborating evidence, because I can see how some would write off Cholowski at that point, seeing him unable to address a weakness. I saw it as a futile exercise in the first place, that reinforced my notion that Cholowski's career will be made or broken playing against the oppositions high flyers, as a sneaky neutral zone foil behind Seiders towering physical presence, as opposed to being frustrated that Cholowski isn't charting as a nice 2nd pair skater and good PP guy.

I'm not in love with the chemistry we have between DET and GR right now. There's a lot less going on there than is being led on, in a lot of cases, and I'm worried that the only people the Red Wings feel like they are actually interested in developing there are Seider and Veleno. Whether that's true or not, the environment in GR has at least been nice for Cholowski to start putting the pieces of his game back together the way he wants.

He's not playing with Seider yet, and he's not wowing anybody with new wrinkles to his physicality, but he is getting back to being the type of player that racks up possession and efficiency beneficial plays as a nearly unconscious habit. Rarely does Cholowski end his shift without sending 3 of our guys down the ice with the puck first. That's the fine line where my insane optimism for Cholowski sits. I believe he might eventually be the type of player that either ends his shift by conceeding a bad angle shot for a faceoff, or he ends his shift on a clean breakout. That adds up over time in a way that can't be seen as clearly as a great stick check or board battle.

 

[DatsDeking]

yeah nice call with the Weiss comp. I guess the fact that he never really played allowed me to not look as negatively on him as I do on Frans. When I watch, if there is an injury, it must be a head injury. Offensively the dude just looks like a toddler trying to play out there.

He has an IQ injury. Those two , and their situations here, remind me a lot of each other though.

 

[Henkka]

yeah nice call with the Weiss comp. I guess the fact that he never really played allowed me to not look as negatively on him as I do on Frans. When I watch, if there is an injury, it must be a head injury. Offensively the dude just looks like a toddler trying to play out there.

Yeah, he was once one of the fastest skaters in NHL.

You lose your main strength and you lose everything.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Ericsson.
Lashoff.
Daley.

That's about it in terms of "unplayable."
I think Bowey comes close to that line quite a lot.

Abdelkader, Nielsen, Erne, Perlini - Not unplayable. Just dime-a-dozen guys who, in Abby and Frans's case - get paid way too much.

If they're dime a dozen 4th liners on the worst team in two decades, they should not be NHL caliber.

 

[MBH]

If they're dime a dozen 4th liners on the worst team in two decades, they should not be NHL caliber.

Simply not true.
The Wings dime-a-dozen guys aren't much worse than any other team's.
It our top 9 forwards who don't rate compared to most teams. Or our top 4 defense.

 

[lomekian]

On the Cholowski debate, I agree that his passivity needn't be a negative longer term, but I do think he needs to get more assertive and a bit braver in both push play and in defensive contact. He's smoother, but he has a touch of the Jakub Kindl's about him, which gives me concern. That said, I think on the PP (and whenever else the team has controlled possession up ice) he's one of our better D for sure. But if he's going to survive in his own end, he needs to get stronger and more assertive. Certainly have no interest in giving up on him, and still think he'll level out as an NHL d-man, but whether thats as a #3 or a #6 is to be seen.

 

[Gniwder]

Simply not true.
The Wings dime-a-dozen guys aren't much worse than any other team's.
It our top 9 forwards who don't rate compared to most teams. Or our top 4 defense.

I dunno about that, most forwards outscore their backup goalie. Also, the bottom pair D are AHL players, literally.

WIth the current injuries, this has to be one of the worst teams in recent history. I've never seen a team so incapable of scoring.

 

[Debrincat93]

my personal dream world. i would never play:

Abby
Nielsen
Perlini
Erne
Ehn - sorry just think he's a bland player
Helm
Lashoff
Biega
Howard - poor guy might never win a game again, looks horrible
Ericsson
Daley

if any of them left tomorrow (sorry Jimmy, i still love ya) i wouldnt be upset. thats how id answer this.

 

[Debrincat93]

Cholowski might be one of those guys where he almost just needs either a new coach here, badly, or a change of scenery.

He plays like he's scared to make a wrong play and while you get paid to perform, the kid clearly cant do it comfortably up here or in GRG. Hopefully a new tone in Detroit soon will help him with some confidence, or atleast show us he's just not a red wing into the future. Kid is 22 next month, timez ah tickin.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Simply not true.
The Wings dime-a-dozen guys aren't much worse than any other team's.
It our top 9 forwards who don't rate compared to most teams. Or our top 4 defense.

Respectfully disagree.

While not the core of a playoff team, a top 6 of Larkin, Zadiina, Mantha, Fabbri, Bertuzzi, and Athanasiou (I know not literally our top 6 but our 6 best forwards), are below average, but NOWHERE near that of historically bad teams. Seriously, compare them to some of the really Buffalo or Phoenix teams a few years ago. It's the fact we have players like Erne, Perlini, Abdelkader, Ehn, and Nielsen, none of which would make any playoff teams top 12, or even 13th extra forward, on a playoff team.

 

[2xJack]

I think there are at least six players on the Wings roster who would get cut or demoted to the AHL on even a middle of the pack team. Abdelkader, Nielsen, Flip, Perlini, Erne, Howard and Ericsson are all very easy targets. That's seven and I'm having a really hard time thinking any of them would fit on a halfway decent team. There are others as well.

This team is really, really bad.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Part of me wonders if there was some kind of injury like with Weiss that has kept him back. I felt the Weiss signing was gonna be big for us too and that one seemed to go the same route as this.

He's 35 years old on the worst team in the league, the first Danish NHL player ever, the most successful shootout player of all time, and has something like a $20 million dollar savings account.

I think his giveaf*** is injured.

 

[Henkka]

1 extra season and Nielsen will be bought out.

Quite easy buyout with the cap. Yzerman has to bolster 20M for UFAs + extend own RFAs to get even near of the upper cap.

 

[MBH]

Respectfully disagree.

While not the core of a playoff team, a top 6 of Larkin, Zadiina, Mantha, Fabbri, Bertuzzi, and Athanasiou (I know not literally our top 6 but our 6 best forwards), are below average, but NOWHERE near that of historically bad teams. Seriously, compare them to some of the really Buffalo or Phoenix teams a few years ago. It's the fact we have players like Erne, Perlini, Abdelkader, Ehn, and Nielsen, none of which would make any playoff teams top 12, or even 13th extra forward, on a playoff team.

Tampa Bay had Erne last year and they posted a near record-breaking season.
Perlini and Ehn are borderline NHLers for sure. But all teams have this.
Abdelkader would just fine if he was a 4th liner making under $1m. Nielsen would be fine as a 4C. Maybe 3C is out of his range now.

But man..
Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha - as top lines go - not good.
it gets worse from there.
AA-Filppula-Fabbri - Filppula is way out of his depth. Fabbri was a guy who couldn't make an NHL team before now. AA was having a disastrous year.
Helm-Nielsen-Zadina - Zadina is a rookie who's actually been playing on L1 and L2 at times. Nielsen is out of hid depth. Helm is a 4th liner.
Abby-Glendening-Erne - Would be fine as any team's 4th line. Problem is Glendening is always on L3 or even L2.

The injuries to Mantha and AA have forced weak players higher into the lineup.

Going back to the OP - the only guys who really don't belong in the NHL? Maybe Ehn, who I don't mind, and Perlini. You could say Smith, too, I suppose, but I like his game thus far.

On defense - well, that's another story.

 

[odin1981]

Without looking at the graph I'd wager Nielsuck, Big Rig, Abby, Lashoff, Biega, Daley, AA, Filpulla, green, and Fabbri are in the bad category. And that's just off the top of my head.