Stastny/ROR: Either, Neither, or Both?

[Dutchess]

http://milehighsticking.com/2013/08/25/paul-stastny-ryan-oreilly-colorado-avalanche/

Between those two, Downie, Varlamov, Elliott, and Barrie, will the Avs have enough room to sign both? Stas' hit will come down but realistically, does it get below like $5.5M? $6M? And ROR will likely be in the same neighborhood. Who stays? Who goes?

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[Foppa2118]

Whether they keep O'Reilly on the wing, I don't think a three offensive center lineup consisting of Duchene, Stastny, and MacKinnon will work long term. They'll all need talented linemates to get the best out of them, and there just won't be enough to go around. We've seen it already the last four years, where one or two of Duchene, Stastny, and O'Reilly struggled.

At least if they keep O'Reilly as a 3rd center, and bump MacKinnon up to a more traditional top two line role, O'Reilly is more capable of playing a simple two way role. He doesn't have to play with skill guys to get the best out of him. They need a more multi dimensional approach in their top three lines, and he best suits that. They could even bounce him back and forth between wing and center like they did with Drury. Both players seems smart enough and hard working enough to pull that off.

It would be stupid for them to take MacKinnon over Jones and then keep him in a role long term where he plays with guys like Downie and McGinn where he will start this year. It's painfully obvious both Duchene and Stastny need to have top two skilled linemates to be successfully, and preferably on both wings, so putting them in that role between Downie and McGinn isn't great for them either.

Staz is a great guy, and an underrated player, but with MacKinnon on the team he makes the most sense to let go for many reasons, not just that his contract is up next summer. He'll probably have great success playing on another team in a true top line or 2nd line role, but as far as team building goes for the Avalanche, he just doesn't fit IMO.

 

[cgf]

Since when does Staz need two skilled linemates? He just needs guys who can actually finish when the crash the net, and he did just fine with just stewie, as he was still a PPG pace when that trade went down. Staz needs one actually good finisher he can build chemistry with who plays a more simple game. Landeskog being sort of the ideal example.

Meanwhile Duchene just almost hit a PPG season with Parenteau on one side a rotation of unskilled wingers on the other.

Sure we need to find MacK his partner, but he's still just a baby n hasn't even skated for us yet. Lets see what happens.

As for who to keep, which ever one you can re-sign long term for ~5.5 per, if that's both great, if it's just one that's cool to, if it's neither well that kinda sucks but at least we'll have new shiny toys at the deadline :-/

 

[Foppa2118]

Since when does Staz need two skilled linemates? He just needs guys who can actually finish when the crash the net, and he did just fine with just stewie, as he was still a PPG pace when that trade went down. Staz needs one actually good finisher he can build chemistry with who plays a more simple game. Landeskog being sort of the ideal example.

Meanwhile Duchene just almost hit a PPG season with Parenteau on one side a rotation of unskilled wingers on the other.

Sure we need to find MacK his partner, but he's still just a baby n hasn't even skated for us yet. Lets see what happens.

As for who to keep, which ever one you can re-sign long term for ~5.5 per, if that's both great, if it's just one that's cool to, if it's neither well that kinda sucks but at least we'll have new shiny toys at the deadline :-/

Since the whole time he's been here. And I said preferably two.

Not sure why you disagree he needs skilled linemates, and then say he needs someone who's a good finisher. That's a skilled linemate. So is Stewart who's only problem is work ethic and consistency. So is PAP with Duchene.

You're making my point and disagreeing at the same time.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I don't think it's a question of money, they can afford both guys but it's more of a question that wouldn't 5.5-6 mil be better served on a defenseman?

I see one of them staying. Maybe the one that is willing to sign a long term deal. If that answer isn't obvious at the deadline then maybe it depends on offers. I agree that ROR's role is more adaptable and better for the long term but Stastny can fill it too. For me the big difference is UFA vs RFA, the team control over ROR. He'll be more difficult to sign but he doesn't have a plethora of options either.

 

[avsfan9]

I think we need these two to be a contender. We should hang on to them and continue to develop our d in our system. Remember, carolina did it with an average defense.

 

[Nzap]

Just Staz.

ROR should have more value in the market and Staz is the better player.
It's quite easy actually.

 

[bromando]

I want to keep ROR 100%. Would like it if Staz took a discount at 5.5 to stay but I just don't see why he does that. I would prefer to groom Mack to the wing of Duchene and have a second line with ROR and Landy for the future. Center is our deepest position on the Avs and in the system. I think Mack would be better served as the top liner with Duchene rather than on the 2nd line (or having Duchene on the 2nd line) in the future...

Any way you do it though, I don't see us keeping Mack, Duchene, ROR, or Stastny as a 3rd line center in the future.

 

[henchman21]

What I prefer: Both stay

What is most likely: Stastny stays, ROR leaves

The most likely is using the rational that ROR has much, much more trade value to bring in a young defensemen and both players could be signed for roughly the same deal. Stastny has a higher offensive ceiling and can play very good defense, but not elite like ROR can.

 

[bromando]

What I prefer: Both stay

What is most likely: Stastny stays, ROR leaves

The most likely is using the rational that ROR has much, much more trade value to bring in a young defensemen and both players could be signed for roughly the same deal. Stastny has a higher offensive ceiling and can play very good defense, but not elite like ROR can.

Would rather keep ROR's defensive ability with Mack in the picture. Don't care if ROR pulls the bigger return because I think he's better on the team.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

I think we need these two to be a contender. We should hang on to them and continue to develop our d in our system. Remember, carolina did it with an average defense.

Easier said than done.

Hedican-Ward was their #1 d-pairing somehow. Hedican, on his last legs, played way above his level, and Ward, a borderline 6th/7th d-man thought he was a legit #2 d-man throughout that playoff run.

F.Kaberle-Commodore was the #2 pairing, which I see how it worked well since Kaberle was a pure offense guy and Commy was a pure defense guy, but this line should have realistically been a bottom-pairing line or a 6th/7th reserve.

Wesley-Wallin was their bottom pair, where Old Man Wesley was playing way above his level (obviously low due to his age) and Wallin was another #6/7 guy who played slightly above his level

This all happened at the same time, and combined with Can Ward playing absolutely out of his mind and giving the the NHL the best goaltending performance seen by a rookie since Patty himself in '86, gave the Canes an above-average D.

Oh, and they had some fantastic to pretty good 2-way forwards like Brind'Amour, Weight, Whitney, Williams, Stillman, Cullen, Recchi, youngsters Staal, Ladd, Larose, plus both Craig and Kevin Adams to support that terrible D.


So, at least we know some anomalies like this are possible, but for it to happens with us, we would need to put the entire D-corps under some sort of extremely heavy hypnosis and make them all believe they're better D-men than they are.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Just Staz.

ROR should have more value in the market and Staz is the better player.
It's quite easy actually.

ROR is better player now, If we are talking about overall career Stastny wins. ROR has passion, Stastny has little passion left.

 

[zxcvnm]

Stastny's traded because he's leaving during UFA anyways. O'Reilly is traded for quality return unless he thrives on Duchene's wing, is willing to stay there, and actually wants to be an Av. That's too many ifs, so my money is on him being traded. Might not be immediate because the Avs can be patient to wait for the right deal, but I expect him to be gone by the 2015 trade deadline and most likely much earlier (2014 trade deadline or 2014 offseason).

 

[Freudian]

It's O'Reilly and Stastny holding the cards here so the question isn't what Avs want but what the players want.

 

[Taak19]

I'll take both at 3 mil per for the next 10 seasons.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Just Staz.

ROR should have more value in the market and Staz is the better player.
It's quite easy actually.

ROR is the better player.

 

[Nzap]

ROR is the better player.

ROR with Lando obviously looks like it.

Staz banged in PPG seasons before having to have useless linemates.
I still believe in him, and with Tangs and Lando I can see him hitting the PPG pace again.
I cannot see ROR ever hitting PPG and both are excellent defensively.

It's more about if you want the consistent but less effective pointgetter with good D or the inconsistent and more effective. And if we can mold Staz into consistent he will tromp ROR down 100 out of 100 times.

 

[tigervixxxen]

It's O'Reilly and Stastny holding the cards here so the question isn't what Avs want but what the players want.

What are O'Reilly's options though? Sure he could refuse any long term deal but is he going to hold out on a $6.5 mil QO?

 

[El_Loco_Avs]

Both please.

 

[Freudian]

What are O'Reilly's options though? Sure he could refuse any long term deal but is he going to hold out on a $6.5 mil QO?

He can make it clear that he will only stay here for two years and then explore free agency by choosing a two year QO/arbitration ruling. That should lessen Avs interest in keeping him significantly.

 

[henchman21]

Stastny and ROR are very close as players. In a vacuum, I think you take ROR considering his youth, improvement, and better defense. At the same price, the decision is much, much tougher.

Faceoffs: both are very good in this department

Defense: ROR has the edge here as he is near elite, but Stastny would be top 20 in the league in terms of centers and is very good himself

Goal Scoring: Stastny has a decided advantage here. ROR has never hit 20g in major junior or the NHL. Even in his 29 games he only had a ~17 goal pace. Stastny has hit 20+ goals in every season except the two years of 45 and 41 games. ROR has a better slapshot, but that is it. Stastny is way better at scoring dirty area goals.

Playmaking: I would say this is pretty much a push. Stastny has a bit more ability and better vision, but ROR is pretty damn close. They work from different areas on the ice.

Puck Possession: Push. Both have great boardwork and use their teammates well. ROR uses his body more effectively with the puck. Given similar linemates, I would bet their possession numbers would be similar.

Intangibles: Really tough for people outside to measure, but I would say a push. ROR plays with more passion and his work ethic can't be topped. Stastny is obviously regarded by the team as a better leader.

IMO opinion it depends more on what you are looking for from the players to decide between them. If you play a real defensive style of hockey, ROR. If the team plays more offensively, Stastny. Run and gun, Stastny is better suited. Dump and chase, ROR is better. ROR can fit better as a traditional 3rd line center, but any team built like the Avs are not looking for a traditional 3rd line center... more like a #2C that can shutdown other team's top lines.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Stastny and ROR are very close as players. In a vacuum, I think you take ROR considering his youth, improvement, and better defense. At the same price, the decision is much, much tougher.

Faceoffs: both are very good in this department

Defense: ROR has the edge here as he is near elite, but Stastny would be top 20 in the league in terms of centers and is very good himself

Goal Scoring: Stastny has a decided advantage here. ROR has never hit 20g in major junior or the NHL. Even in his 29 games he only had a ~17 goal pace. Stastny has hit 20+ goals in every season except the two years of 45 and 41 games. ROR has a better slapshot, but that is it. Stastny is way better at scoring dirty area goals.

Playmaking: I would say this is pretty much a push. Stastny has a bit more ability and better vision, but ROR is pretty damn close. They work from different areas on the ice.

Puck Possession: Push. Both have great boardwork and use their teammates well. ROR uses his body more effectively with the puck. Given similar linemates, I would bet their possession numbers would be similar.

Intangibles: Really tough for people outside to measure, but I would say a push. ROR plays with more passion and his work ethic can't be topped. Stastny is obviously regarded by the team as a better leader.

IMO opinion it depends more on what you are looking for from the players to decide between them. If you play a real defensive style of hockey, ROR. If the team plays more offensively, Stastny. Run and gun, Stastny is better suited. Dump and chase, ROR is better. ROR can fit better as a traditional 3rd line center, but any team built like the Avs are not looking for a traditional 3rd line center... more like a #2C that can shutdown other team's top lines.

You are forgetting one thing, POTENTIAL. I don't think we have seen the best possible ROR yet, this guy gets better every season. It's scary! This guy overachieves every season, he's just unbelievable. ROR's work ethic blows away Stastny's work ethic.

 

[henchman21]

You are forgetting one thing, POTENTIAL. I don't think we have seen the best possible ROR yet, this guy gets better every season. It's scary! This guy overachieves every season, he's just unbelievable. ROR's work ethic blows away Stastny's work ethic.

Both were mentioned in there, and work ethic can only get you so far. It is hard to say if ROR has reached his peak yet or not. To this point he has not displayed any skill that makes you think he will be a 60+ point scorer for the rest of his career without a single doubt. I'm not saying it isn't possible for him to do so, just that nothing I have seen lends me to believe that will be the case.

The last 3 full seasons (09-10 to 11-12) only these players scored over 60 points for all 3: Sedin twins, Ovechkin, Stamkos, St. Louis, Brad Richards, Thornton, Kane, Kovi, Marleau, Kopitar, Perry, Eriksson, Eric Staal, Zetterberg, Iginla, and Sharp. Only 17 players have been able to do that with some consistency. There would be a couple more if injuries were taken out, but injuries are just part of the game. I honestly just don't see ROR being capable of being a part of that group.

 

[Avs_19]

ROR with Lando obviously looks like it.

Staz banged in PPG seasons before having to have useless linemates.
I still believe in him, and with Tangs and Lando I can see him hitting the PPG pace again.
I cannot see ROR ever hitting PPG and both are excellent defensively.

It's more about if you want the consistent but less effective pointgetter with good D or the inconsistent and more effective. And if we can mold Staz into consistent he will tromp ROR down 100 out of 100 times.

I'm nitpicking here because he has been close but Stastny has only had one PPG season in his career and has averaged around 53 points in the last three seasons. He is still a good player but IMO he's no longer the more effective player. Hoping to mold a seven year veteran and soon to be 28 year old into a more consistent player, you know how silly that sounds?

If it comes down to only one of them, I'm taking O'Reilly and it's an easy decision for me. Who knows how the Avs will handle this but I would need Stastny to take a significant pay cut if he wants to stick around.

 

[Nzap]

I'm nitpicking here because he has been close but Stastny has only had one PPG season in his career and has averaged around 53 points in the last three seasons. He is still a good player but IMO he's no longer the more effective player. Hoping to mold a seven year veteran and soon to be 28 year old into a more consistent player, you know how silly that sounds?

If it comes down to only one of them, I'm taking O'Reilly and it's an easy decision for me. Who knows how the Avs will handle this but I would need Stastny to take a significant pay cut if he wants to stick around.

Just by giving him linemates that actually can play and giving him the correct opportunity and system (Roy should suit him better than our last coach). That is what I meant by "molding" him.

Funny, for me taking Staz is an easy decision. The only advantage ROR has for me is that he is younger, but considering Mac, Duchene and Lando being so young we need some veterans on this team, and Staz has been through quite a lot.

I also dislike ROR's attitude towards the financial side and the "happy that I waited" comment and by that underwhelming each and every one of your teammates and staff was something I just can't forget and cast aside.

But Henchman had a very good comparison between the two and I'd rather take Staz. Even withour ROR's holdout. That just makes this an easy decision for me.
Depending on Staz's production next season I'm certainly willing to pay him up to around Duchene's number. If he has around 0.75-0.9ppg a 5.5-6.4mil/4-6 year deal sounds great. Even more and I'd be content, but going over 7mil would require a PPG pace. And a shorter deal.