satyr9
Registered User
- Sep 20, 2009
- 258
- 0
So just farting around with my top 18 guys this morning and figured I'd share. The chart below shows projected minutes (with bias towards balance admittedly) and individual production based on each player's three year averages (what they've done the last three years pro-rated over this season's projected minutes). I'm not saying it's predictive and to the right I have my skimpy notes on why each one is optimistic, pessimistic, stable, or uncertain.
So what do you think? Totals are 268 GF, which would be quite high, but it's also assuming perfect health so that's not really as optimistic as it looks. Is an excercise like this worth a damn? Would you weight years to avoid the old data bias (three years ago Liles, Kule, et al. were different players)? I didn't play with the numbers at all and showed why I think they're biased instead of trying to adjust the poorly predictive - IMO - numbers. Gotta say if we got this kind of production out of the bulk of the roster, I'd be pretty happy with how the season was going.
Code:
Minutes Production
ES PP PK MIN G A Pt
Lupul 15 3 0 18 34 43 77 Opt. Health
Kessel 16 3 0 19 33 40 73 Pes. OldDataBias
Kadri 15 3 0 18 23 36 59 Uncertain Sm.Smpl
JVR 16 1 1 18 28 25 53 Stable
Franson 17 4 1 22 10 38 48 Opt. 1yrSkew
Kulemin 14 0 2 16 17 26 43 Opt. OldDataBias
Phaneuf 18 3 4 25 12 30 42 Stable
Bozak 16 1 1 18 17 24 41 Pes. OldDataBias
Clarkson 15 2 1 18 26 14 40 Uncertain NewTeam
Boland 14 1 1 16 19 21 40 Uncertain NewTeam
Liles 15 1 0 16 6 26 32 Opt. OldDataBias
Raymond 11 1 0 12 13 17 30 Uncertain NewTeam
Gardiner 17 1 1 19 6 22 28 Uncertain Sm.Smpl
Gunnarsson 18 0 2 20 4 20 24 Stable
Ranger 15 1 2 18 6 16 22 Opt. OldDataBias
McClement 8 0 4 12 9 9 18 Stable
Colborne 5 0 0 5 2 10 12 Uncertain Sm.Smpl
Orr 5 0 0 5 3 2 5 Stable
So what do you think? Totals are 268 GF, which would be quite high, but it's also assuming perfect health so that's not really as optimistic as it looks. Is an excercise like this worth a damn? Would you weight years to avoid the old data bias (three years ago Liles, Kule, et al. were different players)? I didn't play with the numbers at all and showed why I think they're biased instead of trying to adjust the poorly predictive - IMO - numbers. Gotta say if we got this kind of production out of the bulk of the roster, I'd be pretty happy with how the season was going.