St. Louis wins the lottery -- pick speculation

[Prussian_Blue]

Prussian,

I agree with your assessment and were I the Blues it would take a lot for me to NOT take Johnson. But to suggest the BLUES got screwed out of Scott Stevens when they screwed the Caps in the first place..well I dont agree with that! lol

Gee, I wonder why...

You have noticed that almost no other significant RFA's have been offered big contracts since then, right? Someone had to test the waters, and the Blues were the ones who took the gamble. And they got slapped down hard by the NHL for it.

To lose Stevens by having another team sign him as a free agent is one thing, but to have him forecefully taken away, in the prime of his career, is quite another.

P_B

 

[RangerBoy]

At least one NHL executive predicts Phil Kessel of the Gophers won't be picked higher than No. 4 in June's entry draft while Gophers-bound Erik Johnson is expected to be picked No. 1 overall

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/special_packages/columnists/14407877.htm

 

[RangerBoy]

Pavelich, Only speaking of this draft. Montoya may turn out great, but for now, a minor league goalie unworthy of the #3 pick.

Montoya was the 6th overall pick two years ago.He is not some bum off the street.First year pro

 

[Rabid Ranger]

RR, your assessments have been pretty good in the past, and I respect your opinion, but I'm having a hard time believing that you know more about Phil Kessel than an NHL alumnus and broadcaster with contacts all over North America...

Kessel's a fine offensive player, and would be a good pick for the Blues at first overall, but as others have pointed out in this thread, Johnson fills an organizational need, and he is the consensus first-overall pick. The only way I could see the Blues drafting anyone other than Johnson would be if they traded down, and got a quality young defenseman with first-pairing ability in the bargain. Whitney or Orpik and the Pens' pick in exchange for the Blues pick, as an example.

I don't expect the Blues to draft Johnson with the idea of him coming right to St. Louis and playing next year, but I do expect them to draft him with the idea of building the next Scott Stevens after we got screwed out of the original a decade ago...

P_B

I'm not claiming to be as connected as Kelly Chase. I really doubt though that he has that much insight into Phil Kessel the player, a player that I follow very closely.

 

[GaryU]

RangerBoy...You're really quite emotional. I'm sure Montoya's a fine goalie, just not worth a Top 6 pick by himself. (I don't know his living arrangements.)

 

[HFNHL Canadiens]

I think there is actually a pretty decent chance he does. He's been better than him all season long and he has tremendous upside.

The reason why Tlusty out performed Frolik is because Tlusty was a good 4th liner and was comfortable with that position, Tlusty is more grit and checking and Frolik is more offense and finesse

 

[SOLR]

I think it will be Phil Kessel

My opinion on this is influenced by a couple of factors:

1) The blues even if they don't have many 1/2 defencemans have a lot of possible surprises at defence because of the depth in the organization. Brewer and Backman even if UFA can be signed by the blues at not so expensive prices. UFA is not the end of the world you know...

2) (More importantly) The whole Keith Tkachuck decision. Why in the hell sign him? The only logical purpose is to teach a young american foward the ropes.(You could say Keith would help Erik as well but I think no one will argue the fact that he would help Phil much more.) Also, Keith is a goal scoring winger with an immediate need for a play making center that can play in the NHL fast.

3) Sorry Blues fans but I think this will be the traditional 2-3 years rebuild and it's probably best to have a wait and see approach on the blues defence at the moment.

Ok, now lets talk about what will happen with Pittsburgh IF St-Louis picks EJ, thats much more interesting in my view. Do they need defence enough to actually grab Sanguinetti? Or who is best to go with Cros and Malkin? Toews I think is the best choice in that respect, but he wouldnt play as a center. Toews-Crosby-Armstrong smells good.

Talking about Sanguinetti, you can count on Bob Gainey to move the habs up if he needs to. The habs clearly needs a guy like that in their depth chart. Ryder is probably on the trading blocks with a "ready" Kostitsyn.(Ryder is useless if not in an offensive role and Kostitsyn is a potential all around superstar, Perezhogin getting better etc.)

 

[katodelder]

I think it will be Phil Kessel

Keith is a goal scoring winger with an immediate need for a play making center that can play in the NHL fast.

Kessel will need time to develop, maybe as much as Johnson.

Ryder is probably on the trading blocks with a "ready" Kostitsyn.

Might not have to trade that far up to get Sanguinetti. If the Habs are willing to part with these kind of assets perhaps they could aim a little higher and try to secure Brassard who shows excellent chemistry with Latendresse.

 

[Jack Splat]

Ok, now lets talk about what will happen with Pittsburgh IF St-Louis picks EJ, thats much more interesting in my view. Do they need defence enough to actually grab Sanguinetti? Or who is best to go with Cros and Malkin? Toews I think is the best choice in that respect, but he wouldnt play as a center. Toews-Crosby-Armstrong smells good.

The Pens don't need Sanguinetti. They have a few offensive defensemen in the system: Whitney, Goligoski, and Letang. They need a winger. Several of them, actually. Despite not really needing a defenseman, they'd be foolish to pass up the BPA in the entire draft, Johnson, because they don't have any defense prospect who projects as a true #1.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I think it will be Phil Kessel

Here we go again ...

My opinion on this is influenced by a couple of factors:

1) The blues even if they don't have many 1/2 defencemans have a lot of possible surprises at defence because of the depth in the organization. Brewer and Backman even if UFA can be signed by the blues at not so expensive prices. UFA is not the end of the world you know...

Name those "possible surprises". Woywitka? Mojzis? Lynch? Byrne? Nikitin? If any of them end up being more than a #4, it's going to surprise a lot of people in the hockey world.

2) (More importantly) The whole Keith Tkachuck decision. Why in the hell sign him? The only logical purpose is to teach a young american foward the ropes.(You could say Keith would help Erik as well but I think no one will argue the fact that he would help Phil much more.) Also, Keith is a goal scoring winger with an immediate need for a play making center that can play in the NHL fast.

No, the "only logical purpose" for bringing back Tkachuk is because he only makes $3.8 million this year but counts $5.7 million toward the salary cap - meaning if the lower limit is $27 million and everyone else gets paid what they count against the cap, the Blues only have to spend $25.1 million in actual salary to hit that lower limit. For a team more concerned about hitting the lower limit than the upper limit, he's an absolute steal this season.

Besides, a lot of people project Kessel as a winger. If he plays center, then (1) his playmaking skills will have dramatically improved, or (2) his team will be desperately thin at center. And as mentioned by several people here, Kessel is not ready for the NHL right now.

3) Sorry Blues fans but I think this will be the traditional 2-3 years rebuild and it's probably best to have a wait and see approach on the blues defence at the moment.

No Blues fan here expects the rebuild to last fewer than 2-3 years, so that's not news. But for the 1,617th time, the Blues are not going to pick at #1 based on need. They'll take the BPA, period.

Now ... if you'd like to discuss whether or not Kessel is the BPA in the draft, fine. But please quit suggesting the Blues will use their #1 pick to fill some perceived hole in the organization.

 

[SOLR]

The Pens don't need Sanguinetti. They have a few offensive defensemen in the system: Whitney, Goligoski, and Letang. They need a winger. Several of them, actually. Despite not really needing a defenseman, they'd be foolish to pass up the BPA in the entire draft, Johnson, because they don't have any defense prospect who projects as a true #1.

If you read well I did say the pens should get johnson if hes available. They need a defensive dominant guy like him. Toews is the best winger in the top 5 for me.(Even if hes a center now, hes been playing as a winger many years before)

My question is more among the lines of: Do they really need offense? They have many more offensive prospects coming and they can user the UFA market(hopefully with more insight than last year) to patch the wings. While at defence they didnt spent a lot of first choice budget on it in their rebuilding(whitney).

 

[SOLR]

Kessel will need time to develop, maybe as much as Johnson.

Are you arguing with the fact that a defenceman takes at least 2 more year to developt? This is a known fact, there is 15 under 20 players at offense for every under 20 D. Jay Bouwmeester was the last to get a lot of play time before 20 years old and hes not yet a dominant player. While I could name 50 guys at offense below 20 with breakout seasons.(Teemu, Patrice Bergeron, Crosby etc. etc.)
Whoever selects Johnson will have to be more patient than Kessel, personnaly I think Kessel can play next year in the NHL and get 50-60 pts.

Might not have to trade that far up to get Sanguinetti. If the Habs are willing to part with these kind of assets perhaps they could aim a little higher and try to secure Brassard who shows excellent chemistry with Latendresse.

I would argue they need Sanguinetti much more than brassard. Pleckanec is ready for a more offensive role and they can UFA the first or second center. American league D guys have little to no value. The only good D prospect they have is Emelin.

But yes maybe they will not even have to trade up for him since I saw a decline in the central ranking of the guy.

Another thing that might happen is a major trade with the lightning, Richards contract wont sit well with Lecavalier and Montreal have been after him since he joined the NHL. Montreal have all the assets available for the lightning.(1. A 2nd centerman to "replace" Lecavalier(Ribeiro) 2. A good, low budget 1st goalie in aebisher 3. A scorer for Richards in Ryder 4. All those 3 are Lecavalier age 5.Montreal got longterm place for Lecavalier in the cap. 6. Richards contracts makes sense and the bolt got some margin for UFA.). This remain speculation but I think many big trades are meant to happen this summer after 1 good year of evaluation of the staff in place.

 

[SOLR]

Here we go again ...
Name those "possible surprises". Woywitka? Mojzis? Lynch? Byrne? Nikitin? If any of them end up being more than a #4, it's going to surprise a lot of people in the hockey world.

Like this never happened before? Defence wise the blues are one of the best ranked organization for prospects.

No, the "only logical purpose" for bringing back Tkachuk is because he only makes $3.8 million this year but counts $5.7 million toward the salary cap - meaning if the lower limit is $27 million and everyone else gets paid what they count against the cap, the Blues only have to spend $25.1 million in actual salary to hit that lower limit. For a team more concerned about hitting the lower limit than the upper limit, he's an absolute steal this season.

Could be part of it, yes. But a steal?

Besides, a lot of people project Kessel as a winger. If he plays center, then (1) his playmaking skills will have dramatically improved, or (2) his team will be desperately thin at center. And as mentioned by several people here, Kessel is not ready for the NHL right now.

How can he a bad playmaker if he leads the world junior in pass @ 17 years old? His ratio goal: pass is not 1:1 like a goal scorer its 1:2 like a playmaker. True there was a game of goal stuffing witch inflated his stats.

No Blues fan here expects the rebuild to last fewer than 2-3 years, so that's not news. But for the 1,617th time, the Blues are not going to pick at #1 based on need. They'll take the BPA, period.

Of course Blues fan expect a short rebuild. Biased. I'm sorry to say I think it's unrealistic with the current state of the concession compared with others.

Truth is the BPA this year is widely a matter of perception. I think the 2 "special" players are Kessel and Johnson but the BPA for the blues is Kessel imo since offensively they are more than poor. The top 5 could end out as good in this year draft. (No Crosby, Ovech etc.) This is why this year IS NOT about the BPA. It's about patching needs with one of the 5 BPAs.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Like this never happened before? Defence wise the blues are one of the best ranked organization for prospects.

Really? We've got a slew of 5/6 guys, but as far as guys who project to be 3/4, there's *very* few. Jackson, Polak, ..... as we've got *no one* who projects to be a 1/2.

As I said, you mentioned we had guys on the blueline who could be surprises. Name them.

How can he a bad playmaker if he leads the world junior in pass @ 17 years old? His ratio goal: pass is not 1:1 like a goal scorer its 1:2 like a playmaker. True there was a game of goal stuffing witch inflated his stats.

As I said, scouts expect him to go to the wing because of his goal-scoring skills and his speed.

Of course Blues fan expect a short rebuild. Biased. I'm sorry to say I think it's unrealistic with the current state of the concession compared with others.

As I said, Blues fans here are not expecting this to be a short rebuild. If it's just 2-3 years, we'll be thrilled - but we're not planning on it.

Truth is the BPA this year is widely a matter of perception. I think the 2 "special" players are Kessel and Johnson but the BPA for the blues is Kessel imo since offensively they are more than poor. The top 5 could end out as good in this year draft. (No Crosby, Ovech etc.) This is why this year IS NOT about the BPA. It's about patching needs with one of the 5 BPAs.

Ask the people who follow the draft regularly and see if any of them suggest you draft based on need with the #1 pick. You don't. You take the BPA regardless of position.

Or, as Blues head of amateur scouting Jarmo Kekalainen said to Alan Adams:

“At the time of the draft we will be prepared to say who we think is the best player available and being the best player for the future of the organization."

So for the 7,412th time ... the Blues will take the BPA, regardless of position.

 

[SOLR]

You know you can discuss without being rude?

I think the core of Brewer - Jackman - Backman is there, I would still consider them prospects 1/2 guys.(Maybe not (9) like EJ but 7.5 - 8). A good young, not yet mature core. Yeah you probably lack some strickly offense guys, but Johnson is far from being that. A bit like Markov will keep improving for the habs and become from a 3/4 to a true blue all star.(I think hes very close to that now) Markov @All-Star weekend 2007.

You can twist the BPA quotes etc all you want, it's worthless in poor draft since you have a crop of top flight but equal players(at 17) who could all be considered BPA depending of the day of the week and the last game they played. (A draft that comes in mind was the Nolan-Nedved-Ricci-Jagr one, its a good example how the 4th choice overall was the BPA.)

"best player available and being the best player for the future of the organization."

What happens with the 2nd part of this quote...see your reading what you want to read.

You seem to think EJ is the concensus BPA while I don't think its that clear for many peeps, wether they want to see the kessel of this year as an adjustment to a higher lvl or not. I think however that EJ and Kessel having that little + star-quality is a concencus. Kessel was the clear concensus before this year, he was sky high on top. But he had a so-so year and this happens in many young careers, why wouldnt he still be considered by many scouts, people with experience and vision, the sky high guy? I think speed will make him the BPA of this year, thats my opinion.

For the 2948249th time its all fun, I respect your opinion.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I think the core of Brewer - Jackman - Backman is there, I would still consider them prospects 1/2 guys.(Maybe not (9) like EJ but 7.5 - 8). A good young, not yet mature core. Yeah you probably lack some strickly offense guys, but Johnson is far from being that. A bit like Markov will keep improving for the habs and become from a 3/4 to a true blue all star.(I think hes very close to that now) Markov @All-Star weekend 2007.

I'm asking about prospects in the Blues system, *not* current roster players. Tell me which Blues defense prospects are potential top-4 blueliners.

Besides, Brewer and Backman are both potential UFA's after the '06-07 season ... meaning if the Blues were going to draft based on need (see comments below), they'd be even more likely to take a defenseman in case either or both walk at the end of the season.

You can twist the BPA quotes etc all you want, it's worthless in poor draft since you have a crop of top flight but equal players(at 17) who could all be considered BPA depending of the day of the week and the last game they played. (A draft that comes in mind was the Nolan-Nedved-Ricci-Jagr one, its a good example how the 4th choice overall was the BPA.)

Twist the BPA quotes? It's directly from JK himself. If he thought Michael Forney was the BPA, he'd be #1 on the Blues draft list and that's who they'd pick. The part about "best player for the future of the organization" would describe "best player available". JK does not pick based on need. Period. He'll take who they think is the BPA. I've asked him about it three times, he does not draft based on need.

And with 10+ years of scouting experience, I'm pretty sure he (as well as every other scout worth half a lick) makes his decision about who the BPA is on more than "the last game they played". Of course, who the BPA is in this draft may draw different opinions from different scouts ... just like I'm sure it did in 1990 when someone thought Ricci would be a better player than Jagr.

 

[SOLR]

Twisting...i.e reading only half of it.

Blues Defence: you have a point there but in my point of view all their current roster is easy to keep in place. No over hype, no bad attitude as far as I can tell. Easy to sign, so they will be there for there prime and a long time.


"meaning if the Blues were going to draft based on need (see comments below), they'd be even more likely to take a defenseman in case either or both walk at the end of the season."

Thats quite speculative of what they would point as needs in 5 years, to me it looks amazingly screaming for a franchise guy upfroot even more.

I'm pretty sure he (as well as every other scout worth half a lick) makes his decision about who the BPA is on more than "the last game they played"

I wasn't questioning his credibility, I was referring to the fact that its a matter of perception and this can change overnight when players are very close to each other. It is my opinion that Jordan Staal could steal the number 1 spot.(ok ok very outside chance but it's there.) When GMs start watching the memorial cup and listening to the scouts, preparing the draft.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Your original point was that you thought the Blues would take Kessel.

Now you're suggesting it could be Jordan Staal.

Either way, you're discounting the chance that it could be Erik Johnson because you think the Blues are/could be set on defense for years to come (something that's not as sure a thing as you think) and so that's why they'll draft a forward.

Brewer and Backman are possible UFA's in 2007. Jackman and Salvador could be in 2008. Wideman has a few years, but Dallman is a Group VI FA and that leaves Matt Walker and Jeff Woywitka as guys who (A) have NHL experience and (B) would still be RFA's after 2008.

Even above that, Woywitka has a whole 26 games of NHL experience. Doug Lynch has 2, Tomas Mojzis has 7, and Mike Stuart has 3. Even Walker (a bona fide #6 defenseman - nothing more) has only 84, Wideman has only 67. Hardly a deep core with which to build on, especially since only Wideman looks to be more than a 5/6 guy (he's still no better than a 3 in the best case scenario) and Woywitka has a *very* slim chance of being a #4 or better right now if he doesn't end up as fill-in 5/6 guy or worse. And again ... we have *no one* in the pool of prospects that projects to be a 1/2 defenseman.

So again ... based on need, the Blues NEED to take a defenseman because they lack a prospect who could be close to a top-2 guy in 4-7 years.

I'm telling you yet again, the Blues are not going to take a player based on how well he fits any holes in the organization. They will take a kid with whatever draft pick because they think he's the best player available. If the kid fills an organizational need, great - if not, they think he's better than anyone else that was on the board and the kid could be a part of a trade to fill in holes down the road.

But since you brought it up, the Blues are quite focused on a couple of players at #1. They'll do their own testing and interviews in the next couple of weeks to decide who they really want. They may already know who they want at #1. But their decision is not going to be based on one game, one series, or any x-game stretch. It'll be based on their evaluations of the kid in action, as well has how well he displays the intangibles the franchise wants.

But it won't be based on the long-term needs of the organization, whatever they're perceived to be. And I'll take a bet from anyone who thinks they'll take Kessel, because I'm very confident they won't.

 

[SOLR]

Im still thinking Kessel(60% chances) EJ (30% I'm not denying the chance) Staal(10%, I said steal?).

What is it with automatic loosing players at UFA, as far as I know they dont have all-stars atm, so no one that could really benefit from UFA. If they loose somebody its someone they either dont care about or someone who doesnt feel right in St-Louis. And the theres more rounds than 1 in the draft, so the 2nd rounder might be a D.

Your analysing the prospect picture of the organization very speculatively. What they have for forwards? Oshie, after? yeah nothing else. So right now they need everything. I know they dont have the best D ever, but they have one of the best young lineup who hasnt reach maturity.

"It'll be based on their evaluations of the kid in action, as well has how well he displays the intangibles the franchise wants."

(You just described "need" for a scout)

We're saying exactly the same thing.
What I am only saying is the Kessel is the BPA that the Blues will select that's it. No need to make a big thing about no no no they will select the BPA. I know you think the BPA is EJ, that's fine really, because name any of the top 5 and I say "good choice".

The thing about the interviews etc, I think will put Kessel on top. When you're launching a rebuilding process you want a leader, someone with an attitude, a winner. Kessel is years ahead of the other guys on this. He got a big hockey heart, hes enthusiastic.

That being said this year would give me serious headaches if I was a scout, all those guys are just so close.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Your analysing the prospect picture of the organization very speculatively. What they have for forwards? Oshie, after? yeah nothing else. So right now they need everything. I know they dont have the best D ever, but they have one of the best young lineup who hasnt reach maturity.

Soderberg. Backes. Stempniak. Birner. Potentially Lemtyugov, Alexandrov, Aaltonen and Shkotov. All of those guys are at least top-9 material, most have the potential to be top-6 forwards.

No, I'm painting a pretty accurate picture of the depth in our system. Heck, even HF agrees with my assessment of the defense. On our top 20 prospects list, we have as many goalies ranked in the top 20 (2nd, 6th, 17th, 18th) as we do defensemen (3rd, 7th, 14th, 19th). Not exactly a ringing endorsement of our defensive depth (although Roman Polak was inexplicably left off that list - which has issues to begin with, but that's for another thread).

What I am only saying is the Kessel is the BPA that the Blues will select that's it. No need to make a big thing about no no no they will select the BPA. I know you think the BPA is EJ, that's fine really, because name any of the top 5 and I say "good choice".

Fine. Now we're discussing who the BPA is. Knowing what the Blues look for, IMO they're looking at either Johnson or Staal. And no, I have no idea who that BPA is, except that it's not Kessel.

The point here is that you justified the Blues taking Kessel by pointing to their lack of depth up front. Only after I explained that the Blues will take the BPA did you post that you thought Kessel was the BPA. As far as who the BPA is, we'll have to agree to disagree - but it's certainly not defined by "which player will have a great career and fill a hole we have in the organization?" At least not how the Blues are defining it.

BTW - I'm still waiting to hear about who these surprises on defense could be. If you've got names, name 'em.

 

[Stealth JD]

The Blues need a franchise defender and a franchise forward (or 2).
This year seems to be their best chance at grabbing the franchise defender (afterall, EJ is supposedly the best defender to come along in a decade)...and lucky (unlucky) for the Blues, they'll likely be drafting high enough next year to grab that franchise forward...

It doesn't make much sense to pass on EJ, unless the scouting staff feels that Staal is (or will be) the BPA....but even that is hard to imagine seeing as how advanced EJ is now, and how far Staal would have to continue to develop (not impossible) to close that gap. Seems like a much riskier proposal to count on Staal to 'pass' EJ....but that's why I'm a fan, and Jarmo gets paid to do this for a living.

 

[WickedBruinsGirl]

Ottawa taking Boston's pick

From today's Herald:

According to Gorton, the Ottawa Senators exercised their option in the Chiarelli compensation package and will take the B’s third-round selection (68th overall) in today’s draft. . . .

http://bruins.bostonherald.com/bruins/view.bg?articleid=145256

 

[mercury]

The boos accompanying Bettman at the podium were just priceless.