Prospect Info: St. Louis Blues Top-20 Prospects: #4

[Bluesnatic27]

The Blues 2020 - 2021 Top-20 Prospect List:
1) Klim Kostin - 61.3%
2) Scott Perunovich - 50%
3) Zachary Bolduc - 45.9%

And the newcomer takes the #3 spot. It's debatable of course, but Bolduc might have the top potential of any player in the pool, and his skill level makes it easy to see why. When I watch him play, there's a poetry to how he handles himself and the puck. His soft hands and agile skating play in tandem so as to present a sense of control and calmness with the puck. He's not slow, but I don't think his game will revolve around his speed. His shot is quick and accurate. He seems to see the ice well with good East-West passing and when taking control of the puck in transition or in the offensive zone. I've seen some scouts give credit to his defensive play, but I think of it more as him willing to try to play in the D-zone as opposed to understanding how to play strong defense. All-in-all, he's got a well rounded list of skills that should pay dividends throughout his development. The glaring issue now is how raw he is. Yes he's young and his skills/body will develop over time, but his "rawness" goes beyond physical or mental skills. It's hard to classify him in any typical player profile because I can't say he really excels in any one area but is willing to play multiple ways. If his team needs a shooter, then he could easily play the trigger man. If his team needs him to play the cycle then he'll do a good job of that too. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, but I do chalk it up to him needing to refine his game more to establish what sort of asset he will become. It definitely didn't help having to play in during COVID times and suffering from injuries. The Blues drafted a talented player with a degree of versatility that could prove most beneficial. Not much more to ask really.

Now, onto number 4!

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[Blueston]

I went with Neighbours. He is by far best remaining prospect among skaters.

 

[Memento]

Voted Neighbours again. After him, it gets tricky, but I'll probably go with Robertsson.

 

[Majorityof1]

With Bolduc out of the way, on to my personal #2, Hofer.

Goalies are hard to predict, but he has shown flashes of being a game changer. Goalie is a position that cannot win a cup on its own. Lundqvist and Price have tried. Its also a position that is not worth spending a ton of cap on. Lundqvist and Price are also great examples as they then have to win it on their own. However, having a young cost-controlled goalie can be a huge boost to the team. Far more of a boost than a middle-six winger. Goalies play every minute of the game, and are capable of winning games single-handed in a way no other player is. A great goalie might not completely carry an average team through 4 seven-game series. But a great goalie can push an otherwise good team over the hump.

Hofer has a great frame for a goaltender being 6'4". Think about how hard the Blues have struggled against bigger goalies like Markstrom. Even if the goalie isn't playing well there is just less net to shoot at. He does a good job of being in position and squaring to the shot. He seems to have good focus and doesn't let in a lot of mental lapse goals that I have seen. He has done really well on good teams that suppressed shots, but also held his own in his draft+1 year where he got absolutely shelled with shots. So he could fit in with whatever state our defense is in when he is ready. He needs to work on his pro-level consistency as his AHL games were a tale of 2 goalies last year. But as a 20 year old on a bad AHL team, I am more encouraged by the really good games than discouraged by the bad ones.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Alexandrov is a net front presence and can score off the rush as well. He can grind on the forecheck and can back check responsibly as well. His WJC was phenomenal, and his short stint in Utica this spring was promising. He’s closer, and has a higher upside than Neighbours right now.

 

[Brian39]

With Bolduc out of the way, on to my personal #2, Hofer.

Goalies are hard to predict, but he has shown flashes of being a game changer. Goalie is a position that cannot win a cup on its own. Lundqvist and Price have tried. Its also a position that is not worth spending a ton of cap on. Lundqvist and Price are also great examples as they then have to win it on their own. However, having a young cost-controlled goalie can be a huge boost to the team. Far more of a boost than a middle-six winger. Goalies play every minute of the game, and are capable of winning games single-handed in a way no other player is. A great goalie might not completely carry an average team through 4 seven-game series. But a great goalie can push an otherwise good team over the hump.

Hofer has a great frame for a goaltender being 6'4". Think about how hard the Blues have struggled against bigger goalies like Markstrom. Even if the goalie isn't playing well there is just less net to shoot at. He does a good job of being in position and squaring to the shot. He seems to have good focus and doesn't let in a lot of mental lapse goals that I have seen. He has done really well on good teams that suppressed shots, but also held his own in his draft+1 year where he got absolutely shelled with shots. So he could fit in with whatever state our defense is in when he is ready. He needs to work on his pro-level consistency as his AHL games were a tale of 2 goalies last year. But as a 20 year old on a bad AHL team, I am more encouraged by the really good games than discouraged by the bad ones.

I generally agree with this, you have to at least re-think that idea when you look at recent results.

Last season 3 of the 4 highest paid goalies in the league took their teams to the 3rd round. The cheapest tandem in the 3rd round this year was $7M. Vegas got to the semis spending $12M on their goalies, Montreal went to the Final spending $13M and the Lightning won the Cup with the league's 3rd highest paid goalie.

The year before, Vegas got to the 3rd round with the same $12M cap hit in net and Dallas had a $7.5M tandem. Tampa had cheap goaltending, but that's just because they had the league's best goalie on the last year of his bridge deal.

In 2019, Rask was a stud taking the Bruins to the Final. He made $7M against the cap and Halak brought their total goalie investment to $9.75M.

It seems like it is getting harder to get by on cheap goaltending. We did it, but Binner played like a top 10 guy on the way to the Cup (and has since been paid like one).

 

[Majorityof1]

I generally agree with this, you have to at least re-think that idea when you look at recent results.

Last season 3 of the 4 highest paid goalies in the league took their teams to the 3rd round. The cheapest tandem in the 3rd round this year was $7M. Vegas got to the semis spending $12M on their goalies, Montreal went to the Final spending $13M and the Lightning won the Cup with the league's 3rd highest paid goalie.

The year before, Vegas got to the 3rd round with the same $12M cap hit in net and Dallas had a $7.5M tandem. Tampa had cheap goaltending, but that's just because they had the league's best goalie on the last year of his bridge deal.

In 2019, Rask was a stud taking the Bruins to the Final. He made $7M against the cap and Halak brought their total goalie investment to $9.75M.

It seems like it is getting harder to get by on cheap goaltending. We did it, but Binner played like a top 10 guy on the way to the Cup (and has since been paid like one).

I may have to re-evaluate. I still don't know if last year was a coincidence or not. Price doesn't have a track-record of going deep in the playoffs despite always being highly paid. Fleury and Vasilevskiy do but they are usually on good teams that can be stacked anyway. Vasi only recently got the big pay day, and TB had to really circumvent the cap with LTIR to fit everyone in. Their playoff squad was over the cap more than Vasilevskiy made.

I also don't have a problem with $7M goalies. That is where Fleury and Rask sit. I do have a problem with $9-10M. Lundqvist, Price, Bobrovsky have never won a cup despite being paid $10M. Like I said, Vasilevskiy has, but his team used LTIR to offset cap issues.

If we can get Hofer to be another Binnington and get him to play big for us while cheap, that is a super valuable prospect. I wouldn't have a problem giving Hofer what is equivalent to a $7M deal in 5 years if he earns it. But when he is really valuable is if we time it where he is like Binnington or Vasilevskiy before his current deal where he is on a bridge deal but playing like an elite goalie.

 

[Robb_K]

I went with Robertsson again, because I think he has both a slightly higher upside than Neighbours, and a higher floor, as well.

 

[Beauterham]

Went Neighbours. Had a really good year last season. If he can continue on that path we could have a very good one.

After this I'm going with Hofer, who's a goalie and thus harder to predict. Otherwise he just could easily have gone top 3.

 

[ezcreepin]

I may have to re-evaluate. I still don't know if last year was a coincidence or not. Price doesn't have a track-record of going deep in the playoffs despite always being highly paid. Fleury and Vasilevskiy do but they are usually on good teams that can be stacked anyway. Vasi only recently got the big pay day, and TB had to really circumvent the cap with LTIR to fit everyone in. Their playoff squad was over the cap more than Vasilevskiy made.

I also don't have a problem with $7M goalies. That is where Fleury and Rask sit. I do have a problem with $9-10M. Lundqvist, Price, Bobrovsky have never won a cup despite being paid $10M. Like I said, Vasilevskiy has, but his team used LTIR to offset cap issues.

If we can get Hofer to be another Binnington and get him to play big for us while cheap, that is a super valuable prospect. I wouldn't have a problem giving Hofer what is equivalent to a $7M deal in 5 years if he earns it. But when he is really valuable is if we time it where he is like Binnington or Vasilevskiy before his current deal where he is on a bridge deal but playing like an elite goalie.

To be fair, Price has been the best player on his team for arguably 7-8 years, and if you aren't building around a guy like him quickly, then you kind of ruin your chances of going deep during his prime. He was more than good enough to get deep into the post season, his teams have just sucked so I'll definitely cut him some slack. He does, however, get injured way more than I would prefer, but he's not made of glass like Bishop is, so there's that.

 

[ezcreepin]

Honestly, there are so many intriguing prospects here that it's kind of hard to say which one is better. Robertsson was considered a top 15 pick this year, but fell to the 3rd round, so his talent is super exciting if he can start finishing plays and have guys finish his passes. Neighbours was a head scratcher when we drafted him, but I was hopeful he would really put in work to be a great player his D+1 year, and he was by all accounts one of the best players in the WHL. Bolduc has high level skills, but he seemed inconsistent over his past couple of years, which is why drafts had him as early as like 16 and as late as 49. I don't like that much of a gap, but he definitely has the potential there. Alexandrov just looks like a really great late 2nd round pick. Just great awareness, good offensive skills, and reliable defensively. International numbers have been great and his AHL stint was good too.

As much shit as we have given the drafting these past few years, the crop of talent we have looks promising. Hofer and Ellis could potentially be 2 solid goalies, however, the defensive prospects looks very thin at the moment. I know Kessel has won a championship, but aside from him and Perunovich, there are many kids right now that can step in to fill a role successfully. We need to be stocking up on those guys more quickly since they typically have longer development time, but overall I'm happy with the amount of evenness I feel towards the first 5 prospects here (though that could mean they're all the same amount of mediocre).

 

[Ranksu]

If any remaining prospects reach NHL level I'm happy.

 

[Beauterham]

If any remaining prospects reach NHL level I'm happy.

You set the bar waaay too low.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Our top 5-6 prospects, I view all in the same way. I don't think any are currently top tier, but they all have enough attributes where they can be a solid NHL player. We just need some of them to make the jump in the next couple seasons to give us some quality ELC on the roster to round out a roster.

 

[izzy]

I think behind Kostin, Neighbors seems most likely at this point to be a future nhl regular imo

 

[EL Bandito]

I went Neighbors as he reminds me somewhat of a young Oshie.

 

[stl76]

Alexandrov is a net front presence and can score off the rush as well. He can grind on the forecheck and can back check responsibly as well. His WJC was phenomenal, and his short stint in Utica this spring was promising. He’s closer, and has a higher upside than Neighbours right now.

Agreed he was great for Russia at the WJC and his numbers in a brief AHL stint looked fantastic. I voted for him here because I do like his upside and generally value prospects performing well against men/older competition.

I'm not sure what to make of his Liiga games last season tho. Did you get to see any of those games or know much about his usage there? His scoring was relatively weak compared to other similar aged players (Iskhakov for example) in Liiga last season and historically...

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Agreed he was great for Russia at the WJC and his numbers in a brief AHL stint looked fantastic. I voted for him here because I do like his upside and generally value prospects performing well against men/older competition.

I'm not sure what to make of his Liiga games last season tho. Did you get to see any of those games or know much about his usage there? His scoring was relatively weak compared to other similar aged players (Iskhakov for example) in Liiga last season and historically...

If there’s any site reporting TOI for Euro leagues, I’m not aware of it. Maybe @Ranksu knows. I’d imagine KooKoo didn’t give a whole lot of ice time to a teenager that was effectively a rental, tho. Of the guys that were teens last year, Alexandrov scored the most, and only two 20yos scored more than him. Mostly everyone else was older. So, hard to say for sure what the actual deal was there. But it seems like maybe he did the most he could with what he was given, all considering.

 

[Ranksu]

If there’s any site reporting TOI for Euro leagues, I’m not aware of it. Maybe @Ranksu knows. I’d imagine KooKoo didn’t give a whole lot of ice time to a teenager that was effectively a rental, tho. Of the guys that were teens last year, Alexandrov scored the most, and only two 20yos scored more than him. Mostly everyone else was older. So, hard to say for sure what the actual deal was there. But it seems like maybe he did the most he could with what he was given, all considering.

And @stl76

A/TOI for Alexandrov was 13:00 and Iskharov had 15:28 A/TOI.

But generally if you have success in Liiga it's notable. 1) you play against men's 2) it's has become mode competitive vs previous years and decade 3) only negative is we play bigger rink so transition for NA is harder and different player success in Europe vs NA.