St Louis Blues 2020 Post-Season Thread

[Stupendous Yappi]

I am making this thread for further discussion now that training camp is closed. I consider the time in Edmonton to be game preparation. The Blues arrive today, and have the exhibition game vs Chicago on Wednesday.

Game 1 for St Louis is vs Colorado in one week. Read it again.

Click to read more...

 

[KirkOut]

let's go blues!

 

[izzy]

too much hockey

boo!

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Took off next Monday. I’m gonna be doing a lot of grillin’, drinkin’, and watchin’ hockeys.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Crawford is a weird situation. He’s cleared now from Covid, but has limited opportunity to get up to game speed. If I were Chicago, I’d put all my eggs in Crawford’s basket and play him even if he isn’t at his best yet. The exhibition game may be a poor test for the Blues. Probably both teams just trying to not get hurt.

 

[izzy]

Poganski over Walker?

 

[simon IC]

Poganski over Walker?

I was thinking Poganski over Nolan? Also, Pouliot over Borgman?

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Crawford is a weird situation. He’s cleared now from Covid, but has limited opportunity to get up to game speed. If I were Chicago, I’d put all my eggs in Crawford’s basket and play him even if he isn’t at his best yet. The exhibition game may be a poor test for the Blues. Probably both teams just trying to not get hurt.

If they want to even look even remotely competitive against Edmonton, they'll need Crawford in net over the sieve that is Subban.

 

[BlueKnight]

The Blues have arrived in Edmonton.
SWQ2006 iAero Airways Flight Tracking and History 26-Jul-2020 (KSTL-CYEG) - FlightAware

I can't wait for hockey again. I was skeptical that it would ever return. But here we are. And now that I'm out of a job I can watch as many games as i can. Let's Go Blues

 

[BlueDream]

I was thinking Poganski over Nolan? Also, Pouliot over Borgman?

I'm thinking that since Brouwer is here, there's not much of a need for Nolan as well. Poganski is a prospect that I feel could challenge a guy like DLR for an extra forward spot next season. I like Walker as well and would also put him in that competition, but there's only so many spots I guess.

As for the defense, I agree with you there but realistically, we are just gonna play the usual 7 guys and IF we needed a different look, I could see Mikkola getting a game or 2 as well. But something would have to go very wrong for Pouliot or Walman to see the ice, so not a huge deal.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Spare forwards are:
Brouwer
De La Rose
Kostin
Kyrou
Poganski
MacEachern (although I think he may be starting for Barbashev)

defenders:
Mikkola
Pouliot
Walman

goalie:
Husso

This is in addition to the guys who were already on the roster, for a total of 31 players.

 

[The Note]

The Athletic’s 2020 Stanley Cup playoff predictions

Blues don't show up as receiving even a percentage of the vote for Cup champs. Though there seems to be a heavy east coast bias as only the Avs and Knights (at 2.6% of the vote) showed up among the top 7 vote getters.

 

[Note Worthy]

So excited! LGB!

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The Athletic’s 2020 Stanley Cup playoff predictions

Blues don't show up as receiving even a percentage of the vote for Cup champs. Though there seems to be a heavy east coast bias as only the Avs and Knights (at 2.6% of the vote) showed up among the top 7 vote getters.

The Blues aren’t considered ‘over-rated’ nor a top contender, although looking at the voting it looks like most people have them in the conference championship. If I’m being honest, that’s about where I think they’ll run out of luck. But they defied that last year, and who knows what to expect from the post-season. I think goaltending is going to be more important than ever. Does Binnington have something special in him for another run?

 

[MissouriMook]

The Blues aren’t considered ‘over-rated’ nor a top contender, although looking at the voting it looks like most people have them in the conference championship. If I’m being honest, that’s about where I think they’ll run out of luck. But they defied that last year, and who knows what to expect from the post-season. I think goaltending is going to be more important than ever. Does Binnington have something special in him for another run?

With respect to the forwards groups, I feel like we are deeper than both Vegas and Colorado, but I think we are even in top end talent with Vegas and behind Colorado.

On defense, I feel like we are distinctly ahead of Vegas and slightly ahead of Colorado.

With goaltending, I feel like we are even with Vegas and ahead of Colorado. I feel like goaltending is going to be Colorado's "Achilles Heel" and they could easily get knocked out in the first two rounds. I suppose the fan bases that still feel like Binnington is a flash in the pan probably feel that way about the Blues, but I'm confident in him to win games even if his GAA and SP aren't always pretty. Do I look nervous?

 

[The Note]

The Blues aren’t considered ‘over-rated’ nor a top contender, although looking at the voting it looks like most people have them in the conference championship. If I’m being honest, that’s about where I think they’ll run out of luck. But they defied that last year, and who knows what to expect from the post-season. I think goaltending is going to be more important than ever. Does Binnington have something special in him for another run?

Yeah, don't get me wrong, obviously the odds are against them (as they are against any singular team). And if they were to lose to Vegas or the Avs I wouldn't be blown away. I just found it interesting they didn't even get a meaningful amount of votes. Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive to it, but it seems like there's a contingent of people who think the Blues were a cute story that just "out-grit" their way to wins while discrediting the amount of talent that is actually on the team. Hopefully the Blues can make some more people look silly this year.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Yeah, don't get me wrong, obviously the odds are against them (as they are against any singular team). And if they were to lose to Vegas or the Avs I wouldn't be blown away. I just found it interesting they didn't even get a meaningful amount of votes. Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive to it, but it seems like there's a contingent of people who think the Blues were a cute story that just "out-grit" their way to wins while discrediting the amount of talent that is actually on the team. Hopefully the Blues can make some more people look silly this year.

A repeat appearance in the SCF might make people take them more seriously, but it would probably require another win since most writers view the East as much stronger than the West.

 

[The Note]

Dunn was back practicing yesterday, so that’s good to see.

 

[Celtic Note]

So do we get a GDT tomorrow?

Thats a feel good question to ask.

 

[The Note]

I was planning on resuming GDTs again. Unless anyone more technically gifted would like to step in!

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’ll keep a running analysis of the matchups and seeding here. It’s fun, and the best part of this format. Ranked by tiebreaker.

1 - Colorado 2p, 6p possible
2 - St Louis 0p, 4p possible
3 - Vegas 0p, 6p possible
4 - Dallas 0p, 6p possible

The Blues are not really in 2nd place, since one of Vegas or Dallas will have 2 points today. If it goes to OT the Blues are tentatively in 4th, 3rd at best. But because of the tiebreaker, if they win then they 2 they can do no worse than 2nd.

For the next part, I’m going to predict who wins each series based on current probability by Dom’s model. So teams that win game 1 are going to be predicted as the winner, until something changes.

5 - Calgary (5) over Winnipeg
6 - Minnesota (10) over Vancouver
7 - Arizona (11) over Nashville
8 - Chicago (12) over Edmonton

So currently we’d slot against Minnesota or Calgary. These matchups are in a huge degree of flux obviously. I just thought it would be fun to track it as we go. I am sure the best if 5 series will look different in a couple days.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Updated for games 8/3:

1 - Colorado 2p, 6p possible
2 - Vegas 2p, 6p possible
3 - St Louis 0p, 4p possible
4 - Dallas 0p, 4p possible

The silver lining (if you think seeding matters at all) is that the Dallas/Vegas game didn’t go to OT. I think the best outcome for the Blues doesn’t matter 1-4, but in avoiding Colorado until the WCF (if both teams advance that far). I think they’ll win the group, so that means Blues need to avoid 4th place. Beat Dallas in regulation and that’s guaranteed. The Blues can still win the group if they win both remaining games (Vegas has to be in regulation) if Colorado drops one in regulation. There are other scenarios, too, but that’s the way the Blues have the most control.

For the next part, I’m going to predict who wins each series based on current probability by Dom’s model. This is in flux.

5 - Edmonton (5) over Chicago (1-1)
6 - Calgary (8) over Winnipeg (1-1)
7 - Minnesota (10) over Vancouver (1-0)
8 - Arizona (11) over Nashville (1-0)

Blues would face Calgary at the moment.

 

[ort]

Looking over all 8 possible first round opponent and honestly, none of them scare me.

Sure, it's the NHL and anything can and probably will happen, so yes, the Blues can easily lose to any of those 8... but on paper, they should be able to beat any one of those teams in a 7 game series.

In fact, I would have trouble really even ranking them in order of preference.

 

[BlueMed]

Yeah, don't get me wrong, obviously the odds are against them (as they are against any singular team). And if they were to lose to Vegas or the Avs I wouldn't be blown away. I just found it interesting they didn't even get a meaningful amount of votes. Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive to it, but it seems like there's a contingent of people who think the Blues were a cute story that just "out-grit" their way to wins while discrediting the amount of talent that is actually on the team. Hopefully the Blues can make some more people look silly this year.

Agreed. Unfortunately, NHL writers and most fans have a very superficial view of hockey. The first and only thing they look at on a roster is superstars. They overemphasize offensive flash and place less emphasis on depth, defense, and goaltending (the very things that actually win you playoff games). This is why Chicago always got more hype than the LA Kings of years past. Currently, the Blues are the new LA Kings with their heavy and physical 2 way play designed to dominate puck possession. So far, there hasn't been a team that's beaten the new Blues in a full 7 game series, and when we are on our game, I am confident against anyone.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

With Barbashev out, I’d like to see Kyrou get into one of these next two games. The offense hasn’t looked great, and we could definitely use his speed in the lineup. From all reports, he looked really good in camp.

Schenn-O’Reilly-Perron
Schwartz-Thomas-Tarasenko
Sanford-Bozak-Kyrou
Blais-Sundqvist-Steen
MacEachern