SSM Greyhounds 2018-19 Season Thread

[Houndsfan22]

All of these numbers are craziness! The OHL is first and foremost a business, and I remind everyone the NHL does not support the OHL as a direct farm team. Only two key ingredients exist, developing players towards an NHL career (the sole reason every player signs in the OHL) and maintaining positive cash flow. The Greyhounds cannot afford to miss the trade deadline without recouping a significant number of draft picks. Simply, it's the old blessing and curse concept in sports management of continuously competitive teams. A blessing because fans are spoiled with continuously competitive teams, but a curse because fans are spoiled with continuously competitive teams. My humble opinion, the Raddysh/Sambrook trade of last year was a very big gamble. It was Cup or problems for possibly 3+ seasons. Now its time to address the issue of limited draft picks and trading a few players easily fixes the problem. Without question trade Frost, Hayton and Villalta. Consider others if the environment looks promising.

As much as I hate to see my boy Frost go I agree with you. We can't afford to make anymore moves to be competitive against London in the playoffs and that's if Guelph doesn't knock us out should we meet with them. If we don't restock the draft picks we face a serious challenge in the coming years.

 

[Yooper]

With all due respect, trading Hayton next year recoups most of our picks. You can only trade so far in advance now, and only so many rookies can make the team each year. So who's to say Raftis isnt thinking along those lines? IMO trading everyone this year isnt going to change the fact that the next 2 years or more are going to be tough sledding. I've endured it before. The organization has endured it many times. True fans stand by through it all. Buy or sell I'll be there. I understand picks are like cash and all the other cliches. But watching Frost, Hayton, and Co. give it one more try, is worth more to me than a couple extra 2nd rounders next year. We all have our opinions. I'm not saying any of you are wrong. Like I said before, I wont be surprised either way. Raftis is in a tough spot. Glad it's his job lol!!! Most of the opinions are split on this forum. Gonna be interesting how it all plays out!

 

[TheCoach]

With all due respect, trading Hayton next year recoups most of our picks. You can only trade so far in advance now, and only so many rookies can make the team each year. So who's to say Raftis isnt thinking along those lines? IMO trading everyone this year isnt going to change the fact that the next 2 years or more are going to be tough sledding. I've endured it before. The organization has endured it many times. True fans stand by through it all. Buy or sell I'll be there. I understand picks are like cash and all the other cliches. But watching Frost, Hayton, and Co. give it one more try, is worth more to me than a couple extra 2nd rounders next year. We all have our opinions. I'm not saying any of you are wrong. Like I said before, I wont be surprised either way. Raftis is in a tough spot. Glad it's his job lol!!! Most of the opinions are split on this forum. Gonna be interesting how it all plays out!

What happens if he makes the jump to the NHL next season?

 

[Yooper]

Obviously it's a gamble, but Hayton has yet to totally dominate at this level. And he's not 6-6 220 like the 19 year old Rasmussen playing for the Red Wings right now. Rasmussen completely tore it up in the WHL playoffs last year. He's got the size to handle the physical grind. Again it's no slight on Hayton, he's my favorite player on the team, but I'd say the odds are he'll be back. If he's not back then we still have our 1st round pick and others, to go with O'Rourke and the other youngsters to develop. Trade or no trade that's not going to change. The struggles wont be fast forwarded. I'm not saying we need to do a big Raddysh/Sambrook type of deal. Just kick the tires on a couple decent sized veteran wingers. Our last 2 attempts at going big failed. Maybe add some cheaper character guys and have a little faith in what you already have. I'm no expert. I just know this is the last chance to see us have a good chance to go deep for a few years. Maybe we can make it to London. With an injury or 2 to them, or some hot goaltending by us, who knows what can happen? We know all to well the favorites dont always win. I personally dont think London is in the same league as last year hounds. Maybe by the deadline they will be. If that's the case maybe we do sell. If so my gut is they sell frost and an overage and still try to win a round. I'm gonna be there watching who's on the ice either way! So I'll shut up til then lol! Thanks for hearing me out! Can't wait to see how it all plays out!!

 

[Houndsfan22]

So I'll shut up til then lol! Thanks for hearing me out! Can't wait to see how it all plays out!!

Nah keep the thoughts flowing. Keep the discussion going. That's what these forums are about. Floating ideas around, counter points, theory crafting. It's all in good fun!

 

[PuckLife]

Obviously it's a gamble, but Hayton has yet to totally dominate at this level. And he's not 6-6 220 like the 19 year old Rasmussen playing for the Red Wings right now. Rasmussen completely tore it up in the WHL playoffs last year. He's got the size to handle the physical grind. Again it's no slight on Hayton, he's my favorite player on the team, but I'd say the odds are he'll be back. If he's not back then we still have our 1st round pick and others, to go with O'Rourke and the other youngsters to develop. Trade or no trade that's not going to change. The struggles wont be fast forwarded. I'm not saying we need to do a big Raddysh/Sambrook type of deal. Just kick the tires on a couple decent sized veteran wingers. Our last 2 attempts at going big failed. Maybe add some cheaper character guys and have a little faith in what you already have. I'm no expert. I just know this is the last chance to see us have a good chance to go deep for a few years. Maybe we can make it to London. With an injury or 2 to them, or some hot goaltending by us, who knows what can happen? We know all to well the favorites dont always win. I personally dont think London is in the same league as last year hounds. Maybe by the deadline they will be. If that's the case maybe we do sell. If so my gut is they sell frost and an overage and still try to win a round. I'm gonna be there watching who's on the ice either way! So I'll shut up til then lol! Thanks for hearing me out! Can't wait to see how it all plays out!!

I, like many others, bet Hayton is in Arizona next year. Keep him for his leadership this year, and the rare chance he will be back next year, but don’t bet the future on him returning.

 

[count35]

I simply used the data that you provided. I didn't intend for it to focus on only good drafts. I think Alex Gritz would have been great had he stayed with the Greyhounds, but that's neither here nor there.

I think the key point that we agree on is that the Hounds have the best scouting staff in the league and a far higher chance of selecting impact players.

If we want to see a 'super team' like we had the last few years then it's going to come via high draft picks. We can stay afloat for several more years with our collection of 6th rounders, but it will never translate into an obvious championship contender.

Considering we lost a few from the scouting staff to the Leafs that might not be the case anymore? We'll have to wait and see on that in the future. As for getting picks at this stage because of the possible questionable remaining staff i'd rather get another team's first rounder from this year...or even 2nd rounder as it was supposed to be a very deep draft.

 

[Yooper]

I thought that for awhile but I think his skating needs to improve some. He may or may not. Like I stated before, nhl expansion may have an influence on Arizona's decision. Not to mention the Coyotes have rushed a lot of high picks lately that haven't panned out that they winded up trading. So maybe their new GM is going to want to take their time with that high of a pick. Jared McCann, who was also a good 2 way forward but never really dominated the "O", clearly wasnt ready to be called up at 19 by Vancouver. Maybe Arizona has other plans. But until he dominates at this level I'd say another year of junior wouldn't be a bad thing. But that's for people smarter than me to decide! I just hope they send him back if he's not ready. One of my favorite hounds since Carter!

 

[soo hound girl]

I thought that for awhile but I think his skating needs to improve some. He may or may not. Like I stated before, nhl expansion may have an influence on Arizona's decision. Not to mention the Coyotes have rushed a lot of high picks lately that haven't panned out that they winded up trading. So maybe their new GM is going to want to take their time with that high of a pick. Jared McCann, who was also a good 2 way forward but never really dominated the "O", clearly wasnt ready to be called up at 19 by Vancouver. Maybe Arizona has other plans. But until he dominates at this level I'd say another year of junior wouldn't be a bad thing. But that's for people smarter than me to decide! I just hope they send him back if he's not ready. One of my favorite hounds since Carter!

Love all the talk on this board I don’t want to trade everyone either Frost would be on the top of my list to trade because I think we would get alot back for him.
Please Raftis keep Villalta at least he will give us a chance in the playoffs even if we sell a couple of pieces, I still think with this current team we could maybe make it farther then some might think

 

[Fischhaber]

Considering we lost a few from the scouting staff to the Leafs that might not be the case anymore? We'll have to wait and see on that in the future. As for getting picks at this stage because of the possible questionable remaining staff i'd rather get another team's first rounder from this year...or even 2nd rounder as it was supposed to be a very deep draft.

It's hard to say, but the early returns on this year's draft are promising. O'Rourke is already looking like one of the top 5 or 6 players from the draft.

Kerins is playing extremely well for a 4th rounder. Out of 7 players from that round in the O this year, he's got more points than the other 6 combined.

For Mufarreh to even make it to this point as a 7th rounder is impressive. I believe he may be the only one.

Kalvyn Watson is lighting it up in the OJHL and I bet he's here next year.

 

[HockeyPops]

Maybe by the deadline [London] will be [as good as last year's Hounds]. If that's the case maybe we do sell. If so my gut is they sell frost and an overage and still try to win a round.

This is where my thinking is coming around to as well. Will be an interesting few days after the World Juniors.

 

[Fischhaber]

This is where my thinking is coming around to as well. Will be an interesting few days after the World Juniors.

That's not really possible if it's true that they only have 2 cards left.

 

[HockeyPops]

That's not really possible if it's true that they only have 2 cards left.

Not sure what this means. Care to elaborate?

 

[Hardcore Techno]

Why don't all of you protest and tell Raftis what he should do ? Apparently its bothering all of you ! I'll report back here after the trade deadline.

 

[Fischhaber]

Not sure what this means. Care to elaborate?

Teams get a certain number of player cards to use per year. After that, they can't add any more players to their roster. It never comes up for the Hounds because we build through the draft.

London's longstanding strategy of using their financial might to get college players to report and trading them for picks always gets them into trouble with cards. It's rumoured that they only have 2 left, so their additions could be limited. Besides, they are nowhere close to last year's Hounds even with additions.

 

[OHLfan200]

Teams get a certain number of player cards to use per year. After that, they can't add any more players to their roster. It never comes up for the Hounds because we build through the draft.

London's longstanding strategy of using their financial might to get college players to report and trading them for picks always gets them into trouble with cards. It's rumoured that they only have 2 left, so their additions could be limited. Besides, they are nowhere close to last year's Hounds even with additions.

Do trades count towards that?

 

[soo hound girl]

Why don't all of you protest and tell Raftis what he should do ? Apparently its bothering all of you ! I'll report back here after the trade deadline.

Was that you I seen coming out of planetary pride today with a bag of goodies?

 

[Houndsfan22]

Why don't all of you protest and tell Raftis what he should do ? Apparently its bothering all of you ! I'll report back here after the trade deadline.

Forum of free flowing thoughts and theory crafting. It's fun! Relax my son.

 

[Marj44]

Michael Bunting scores his first NHL goal in his first NHL game. I’m glad he’s finally got to play in the show. Great player with a fantastic shot and good speed. Arizona is gonna have a good time with him!

 

[Fischhaber]

Do trades count towards that?

Yes they do.

 

[HockeyPops]

Why don't all of you protest and tell Raftis what he should do ? Apparently its bothering all of you ! I'll report back here after the trade deadline.

You do realize that this SSM 2018-2019 thread is still on it's 1st iteration, and other teams (London, Windsor) are on their 5th?

Hound fan. I'm getting annoyed on my board. They won't stop ta!king about buying or selling. They are not the coach or the gm. Why??? Irritating. Their going in circles talking the same crap

Lol you post this on the London board? Pot calling Kettle...

 

[Kingpin794]

We can all certainly agree that having 2nd round picks is better than not having any, I don’t think that’s up for debate. In this post your claiming 2nd round picks are important and then list two 1st round picks to support that argument? You’re argument should include some actual second round picks from those year; Serron Noel, Owen Gilhula, Arthur Kaliyev, Duncan Penman, Antonio Stranges, Will Portokalis...
We could hypothetically have Noel, Kaliyev and Stranges right now but wouldn’t have been able to compete for the championship recently...





Since 2010 there’s been a 10-40% chance you get an impact player in the 2nd round depending on how deep the draft is. That means 60-90% of those picks won’t give you a return equivalent to what you’re selling.

If I presented you with 5 boxes;
1 contains a 16 year old Morgan Frost
4 contain 16 year old Liam Stevens (Bulldogs)

Play along and say they turn out exactly as they have; would you give up Hayton to play the game once? You may end up with Frost but probably not. What if I let you play 4 times (you keep all 4 prizes)? Keep on mind each time you play there’s 5 new boxes (you’re not picking 4 of the 5).


Point is it’s easier to take the for sure thing and add then to sell and hope for the best. What if the Hounds sell and get back 5 busts? What if they buy a guy like Nick Suzuki and Owen Sound picks 5 busts with the picks sold?

The only debate going on is do the hounds take the for sure thing they have; a top team in the OHL (currently) or do they sell, risk it all and take a chance in drafting young impact players?

Defining an "impact" player is highly subjective. But by my count, from 2010-2016 (too early to judge 17/18 drafts), you had a 55% chance to select a player in the second round that was worth that pick. I did throw out 2013 all together because it was such a statistical anomaly/dumpster fire. Even with it though, you'd still have a 48% chance.

2nd round picks are horribly underrated IMO.

 

[Marj44]

Defining an "impact" player is highly subjective. But by my count, from 2010-2016 (too early to judge 17/18 drafts), you had a 55% chance to select a player in the second round that was worth that pick. I did throw out 2013 all together because it was such a statistical anomaly/dumpster fire. Even with it though, you'd still have a 48% chance.

2nd round picks are horribly underrated IMO.

Exactly why my numbers are just that. My numbers. I did create a graph but it’s subjective to my definition of an impact player which was the following;
Player: Achieved 0.60 points per game or better.
Defenceman: Achieved 0.50 points per game or +0.25 points per game and solid defensive play.
Goalies: Achieved a +.900 save percentage and was able to steal games for his team.

In each case the player must be someone that (if they had the exact same career stats) you would be comfortable taking in the 2nd round.
For example, Hayden Verbeek did not have .60 points per game or better and though he was a great player for SSM, idk if the majority of teams would take him in the 2nd round.

Obviously where my numbers fault is that I cannot evaluate every player and don’t know exactly each defenders strength defensively. My statistics would have to be peer reviewed and modified to a concensus before being something of value to use as a reference.

Edit: “was a great player for SSM”

 

[Marj44]

It appears as though Barrett Hayton is on the ice with the team Canada hopefuls, so that’s good news! Doesn’t seem to be wearing a no contact jersey or anything either.

 

[HockeyPops]

It appears as though Barrett Hayton is on the ice with the team Canada hopefuls, so that’s good news! Doesn’t seem to be wearing a no contact jersey or anything either.

Source? Is any of the selection camp televised? I know they play a game tonight at 6 pacific, but I can't find it being carried by any of the networks.

In other World Junior related news, it sounds like Adam Boqvist is playing for London tonight before joining Team Sweden. This is good news for any who want to catch another Team Sweden defenseman in action tonight - Marlies vs. Syracuse is being televised on TSN2. Hopefully Sandin plays.