SRS algorithm (2016 Stanley Cup playoffs)

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Three fun games today.

Outcome | Prob
DAL in 7 games|25.6%
STL in 7 games|21.3%
STL in 6 games | 53.1%
DAL wins|25.6%
STL wins | 74.4%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 7 games|27.2%
PIT in 7 games|21.3%
PIT in 6 games | 51.5%
WAS wins|27.2%
PIT wins | 72.8%

Outcome | Prob SJS in 6 games | 51.7%
SJS in 7 games|28.7%
NAS in 7 games|19.6%
SJS wins | 80.4%
NAS wins|19.6%
 

Doctor No

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Algorithm has Dallas (+0.410) slightly ahead of St. Louis (+0.356) even on neutral ice (remember that the base SRS algorithm doesn't have a recency bias built in).

The algorithm also sees Dallas' performance as quite a bit more inconsistent than St. Louis (the algorithm sees St. Louis as the league's eighth most consistent team, and Dallas the 15th).

But yes, home ice factors in (adding about +0.2 goals to Dallas).
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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SRS distribution for the Penguins/Lightning conference final:

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|8.8%
PIT in 5 games|17.3%
PIT in 6 games|17.1%
PIT in 7 games | 18.0%
TBL in 7 games|12.5%
TBL in 6 games|13.6%
TBL in 5 games|8.5%
TBL in 4 games|4.2%
PIT wins | 61.2%
TBL wins|38.8%

These will change slightly (but not enough to be significant) after the Western Conference semifinal series complete.
 
Last edited:

Doctor No

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1/3 in your 2nd round algorithm results. Yikes. Especially how much they changed when Caps and Isles won game 1.

You must be looking at something that I'm missing.

Saying that Team A has a (for instance) 55% chance of winning a series is not the same thing as saying TEAM A IS THE GREATEST EVER.

The series have all been close. Perhaps you're looking for something else.
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
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1/3 in your 2nd round algorithm results. Yikes. Especially how much they changed when Caps and Isles won game 1.
Perhaps it shouldn't have.

A few years ago, someone showed that the majority of teams that win Game 1 of an NHL playoff series most often lose the series! (I don't recall the percentage.) That may not make sense from a myopic statistic-focused perspective. But considering it's about human beings with feelings, motivations and goals to achieve, it's not so surprising. I've won many a chess game after weak openings, often because the opponent underestimated me based on my early play.
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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SRS power ratings through the second round:

Team | 2015-16 Goal Diff | 2015-16 Schedule | 2015-16 Strength
Washington|
0.702​
|
0.035​
|
0.737​
|
Pittsburgh|
0.581​
|
0.053​
|
0.634​
|
San Jose|
0.468​
|
-0.012​
|
0.457​
|
Florida|
0.398​
|
0.010​
|
0.408​
|
St. Louis|
0.344​
|
0.059​
|
0.403​
|
Tampa Bay|
0.402​
|
-0.010​
|
0.392​
|
Dallas|
0.316​
|
0.045​
|
0.361​
|
Chicago|
0.303​
|
0.044​
|
0.347​
|
Anaheim|
0.337​
|
-0.026​
|
0.311​
|
Los Angeles|
0.287​
|
0.004​
|
0.291​
|
NY Islanders|
0.108​
|
0.058​
|
0.165​
|
NY Rangers|
0.092​
|
0.061​
|
0.153​
|
Boston|
0.122​
|
-0.003​
|
0.119​
|
Minnesota|
0.068​
|
0.045​
|
0.113​
|
Nashville|
0.000​
|
0.081​
|
0.081​
|
Philadelphia|
-0.136​
|
0.079​
|
-0.058​
|
Ottawa|
-0.134​
|
0.020​
|
-0.114​
|
Detroit|
-0.195​
|
0.038​
|
-0.157​
|
Montreal|
-0.183​
|
0.018​
|
-0.165​
|
Buffalo|
-0.256​
|
0.019​
|
-0.237​
|
Winnipeg|
-0.284​
|
0.037​
|
-0.247​
|
Colorado|
-0.293​
|
0.042​
|
-0.250​
|
New Jersey|
-0.293​
|
0.029​
|
-0.264​
|
Carolina|
-0.341​
|
0.043​
|
-0.299​
|
Calgary|
-0.354​
|
0.008​
|
-0.345​
|
Columbus|
-0.402​
|
0.040​
|
-0.362​
|
Arizona|
-0.439​
|
0.023​
|
-0.416​
|
Edmonton|
-0.512​
|
0.015​
|
-0.497​
|
Toronto|
-0.585​
|
0.044​
|
-0.541​
|
Vancouver|
-0.634​
|
0.033​
|
-0.602​
|

Home-ice advantage currently measured at +0.210 goals/game.
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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And the distributions for the conference final matchups (I know that I posted PIT/TBL previously, but I was curious exactly how much the Western games seven would change it):

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|8.9%
PIT in 5 games|17.2%
PIT in 6 games|17.1%
PIT in 7 games | 17.8%
TBL in 7 games|12.8%
TBL in 6 games|13.6%
TBL in 5 games|8.4%
TBL in 4 games|4.2%
PIT wins | 61.0%
TBL wins|39.0%

Outcome | Prob
STL in 4 games|5.8%
STL in 5 games|12.6%
STL in 6 games|14.2%
STL in 7 games|16.4%
SJS in 7 games|14.8%
SJS in 6 games | 17.2%
SJS in 5 games|12.3%
SJS in 4 games|6.8%
STL wins|48.9%
SJS wins | 51.1%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Perhaps it shouldn't have.

A few years ago, someone showed that the majority of teams that win Game 1 of an NHL playoff series most often lose the series! (I don't recall the percentage.) That may not make sense from a myopic statistic-focused perspective. But considering it's about human beings with feelings, motivations and goals to achieve, it's not so surprising. I've won many a chess game after weak openings, often because the opponent underestimated me based on my early play.

At least post-2004 lockout, this doesn't appear to be anywhere near true:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2077939

Anyhow, I'll keep adding past years to my data. Perhaps there was a year or two where it wasn't true in a row or something.
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Game One home loss doesn't help Pittsburgh much (although you knew that).

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 5 games|8.1%
PIT in 6 games|14.3%
PIT in 7 games | 19.1%
TBL in 7 games|13.8%
TBL in 6 games|18.9%
TBL in 5 games|15.0%
TBL in 4 games|10.8%
PIT wins|41.5%
TBL wins | 58.5%

Interesting that the most likely single outcome is a Pittsburgh win in seven, although Tampa Bay has more possible winning outcomes (and a larger overall probability).
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Blues win Game One:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 4 games|11.1%
STL in 5 games | 19.1%
STL in 6 games|17.0%
STL in 7 games|17.2%
SJS in 7 games|15.1%
SJS in 6 games|14.0%
SJS in 5 games|6.5%
STL wins | 64.5%
SJS wins|35.5%

Penguins win Game Two.

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 5 games|14.3%
PIT in 6 games|19.7%
PIT in 7 games | 21.7%
TBL in 7 games|15.9%
TBL in 6 games|17.9%
TBL in 5 games|10.6%
PIT wins | 55.6%
TBL wins|44.4%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Sharks get the split on the road:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 5 games|9.9%
STL in 6 games|15.5%
STL in 7 games|19.3%
SJS in 7 games|18.0%
SJS in 6 games | 22.2%
SJS in 5 games|15.1%
STL wins|44.7%
SJS wins | 55.3%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Pens take it on the road in Game Three:

Outcome | Prob PIT in 5 games | 29.5%
PIT in 6 games|25.4%
PIT in 7 games|20.5%
TBL in 7 games|14.5%
TBL in 6 games|10.0%
PIT wins | 75.5%
TBL wins|24.5%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Sharks knock off the Blues in Game Three:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 6 games|9.4%
STL in 7 games|17.3%
SJS in 7 games|16.8%
SJS in 6 games | 28.4%
SJS in 5 games|28.1%
STL wins|26.7%
SJS wins | 73.3%

Current SRS rankings for teams left in the playoffs:

Team | SRS
Pittsburgh|+0.636
San Jose|+0.515
Tampa Bay|+0.391
St. Louis|+0.345
 

rangersandislesfan*

Guest
Anaheim / Nashville:

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 4 games|7.3%
ANA in 5 games|15.1%
ANA in 6 games|15.9%
ANA in 7 games | 17.4%
NAS in 7 games|13.8%
NAS in 6 games|15.2%
NAS in 5 games|10.1%
NAS in 4 games|5.1%
ANA wins | 55.7%
NAS wins|44.3%

before, i guessed NSH in 7.
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Lightnings even the series at two.

Outcome | Prob PIT in 6 games | 29.4%
PIT in 7 games|29.0%
TBL in 7 games|20.7%
TBL in 6 games|20.8%
PIT wins | 58.4%
TBL wins|41.6%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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All series at two games apiece (and all series have used two goaltenders - interesting!)

Outcome | Prob
STL in 6 games|22.9%
STL in 7 games|25.8%
SJS in 7 games|24.3%
SJS in 6 games | 27.0%
STL wins|48.7%
SJS wins | 51.3%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Lightning and the Penguins both on the brink (different brinks):

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 7 games|28.9%
TBL in 7 games|21.1%
TBL in 6 games | 50.0%
PIT wins|28.9%
TBL wins | 71.1%
 

Doctor No

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Oct 26, 2005
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Sharks one win away from the Finals:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 7 games|21.9%
SJS in 7 games|21.4%
SJS in 6 games | 56.8%
STL wins|21.9%
SJS wins | 78.1%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
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SRS has the Finals as between the #2 team (Pittsburgh) and #3 team (San Jose). Should be a fun one!

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|7.3%
PIT in 5 games|15.0%
PIT in 6 games|15.8%
PIT in 7 games | 17.3%
SJS in 7 games|13.8%
SJS in 6 games|15.2%
SJS in 5 games|10.3%
SJS in 4 games|5.3%
PIT wins | 55.4%
SJS wins|44.6%

See you Monday, aloha!
 

wgknestrick

Registered User
Aug 14, 2012
5,713
2,281
SRS has the Finals as between the #2 team (Pittsburgh) and #3 team (San Jose). Should be a fun one!

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|7.3%
PIT in 5 games|15.0%
PIT in 6 games|15.8%
PIT in 7 games | 17.3%
SJS in 7 games|13.8%
SJS in 6 games|15.2%
SJS in 5 games|10.3%
SJS in 4 games|5.3%
PIT wins | 55.4%
SJS wins|44.6%

See you Monday, aloha!

I wouldn't have expected it to favor PIT that much (if at all) in the series.
 

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