Blue Jays Discussion: So long Pillar, and thanks for all the catches

[phillipmike]

Can someone explain what McKinney did this spring to make the team other than being acquired for JA Happ and having to make that trade look good?

He's hitting .250 after hitting .252 in a small sample in September, and his minor league track record doesn't scream ready for the majors any more than say Alford who is more deserving.

Is it a case of he's just a fungible prospect who we should give a shot since we don't really care about the possibility of screwing up his development by bringing him up before he's ready, unlike Alford who could actually be a division 1 regular?

He had a good spring. .250 BA doesnt look good but his .400 OBP to go with 9 walks to his 8 ks in 46 PAs. 33% of his hits have been extra base hits.

For me im not looking for what McKinney did in the the spring though. When the season ended the OF depth chart was Grichuk, Pillar, Hernandez and McKinney. Since then no one was added and no one left - so with every team carrying 4 OFs the question is what did anyone do behind him to deserve a spot over him? And the answer for me is nothing. Alford needs more time and although its nice to keep Pompey, his 11Ks to no walks is a concern. McKinney deserves a spot over Alford and Pompey in my opinion though i would understand keeping Pompey while optioning McKinney to keep assets but i do not think that is the way to go. Sends the wrong message.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Pen injuries? We should hit up San Fransisco and see if they're willing to trade us Travis Bergen

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

His numbers are better than Alford’s. What are you talking about?

Anthony Alford Minor, Fall & Winter Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

Billy McKinney Stats | Baseball-Reference.com
Billy McKinney Minor & Fall Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

Ok looks like I was mistaken, they're actually more comparable than I thought. Both have had roughly 2 really good seasons above rookie ball: both in 2015 and 2017. Alford I believe still had the superior spring, and can play all three outfield positions.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

He had a good spring. .250 BA doesnt look good but his .400 OBP to go with 9 walks to his 8 ks in 46 PAs. 33% of his hits have been extra base hits.

For me im not looking for what McKinney did in the the spring though. When the season ended the OF depth chart was Grichuk, Pillar, Hernandez and McKinney. Since then no one was added and no one left - so with every team carrying 4 OFs the question is what did anyone do behind him to deserve a spot over him? And the answer for me is nothing. Alford needs more time and although its nice to keep Pompey, his 11Ks to no walks is a concern. McKinney deserves a spot over Alford and Pompey in my opinion though i would understand keeping Pompey while optioning McKinney to keep assets but i do not think that is the way to go. Sends the wrong message.

For some reason the Jays complete spring stats aren't showing up on MLB.com. Only shows average on the box score, but the stat page says cannot complete or something when you filter.

I disagree with it sending the wrong message part though since we're sending Bo down and he's been our best hitter and is probably ready to go. People are aware of the management part of it.

 

[BarDownBobo]

I don’t see them keeping Luciano around. Another bad outing.

His line in the box score almost seems worse than what the actual result was. Came into the game with runners on 1st and 3rd, gave up a single to Acuna on the first pitch he threw then walked two straight and was pulled. It's gonna be fascinating to see how he's handled all year for sure, it's such a unique situation that I think they'll try their damndest to keep him around then have him in AA/AAA next year.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

White Sox Agree To Extension With Eloy Jimenez

The Jimenez contract++ is probably the baseline for any Vladdy deal.

$43MM guarantee over the first six seasons, with a pair of option years that cost a cumulative $32MM, so 75M over 8 years in total.

According to my rough calculations, Vlad stands to make between 50-55M over his first six years through arbitration (assuming he's as good as we expect) and league minimum + increases. His first three years of free agency should be worth let's say 30-33M each, so that's about 154M over 9 years. So that's what he stands to earn if he bets on himself. But if we sign him now and take on all the risk it would obviously have to be a much lower total. So would something like 110M over 9 with the avg escalating each year work?

 

[Discoverer]

McKinney has had a fantastic spring.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

BA's still too early mock draft. Wouldn't be unhappy with this pick. Might even be very happy depending on who's on the board.

11

Corbin Carroll

Lakeside HS, Seattle OF

Notes:

As if a mock draft in March wasn’t already guess work, this is where things really become a toss-up. We’ll have more info on what teams in the middle of the first round and later are doing as we get closer to the draft, but for now these are just players who might make sense down the line. Last year the Blue Jays took a polished high school hitter with their first pick, and Carroll fits that bill as well.

(Edit) Also I wonder when BA will notice that they have Matt Allen going at both the 7th and 21st pick. lol

 

[phillipmike]

For some reason the Jays complete spring stats aren't showing up on MLB.com. Only shows average on the box score, but the stat page says cannot complete or something when you filter.

I disagree with it sending the wrong message part though since we're sending Bo down and he's been our best hitter and is probably ready to go. People are aware of the management part of it.

Its a completely different case. We are talking McKinney having MLB time and being 4th on our MLB depth chart plus we are talking three 24-26 year old OFs - McKinney hasnt done anything to lose the spot and Alford and Pompey have done nothing to win it over him. All three players had similar time and experience at the upper levels. McKinney had the upper hand and proved to be the better player when all things were even.

With Bichette there isnt a level playing field as he needs more time to develop plus Bo had a quality of opposition of 7.0 which is the equivalent of a AA pitcher. Bichette is 21 and has no AAA time and is 3rd on the SS depth chart behind Galvis and Gurriel. What he has done in Spring Training doesnt allude the fact he needs more time to develop, no need to rush him at all. Bichette's 40 PAs doesnt vault him over Galvis and/or Gurriel. We know Bichette's bat is the real deal but similar to Vlad he has to work on his defense and you need your future star shortstop to play a strong defensive game.

Operative word is probably. Play it save and let him develop and call him up in season or next season.

 

[phillipmike]

2019 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher

7. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Danny Jansen	448	.250	.333	.404	.322	1.7	0.4	-2.0	2.8
Luke Maile	96	.211	.275	.325	.265	-4.1	0.0	0.5	0.3
Reese McGuire	96	.227	.292	.353	.284	-2.7	-0.1	0.1	0.3
Total	640	.240	.318	.384	.308	-5.1	0.4	-1.5	3.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Danny Jansen impressed in a 95-plate appearance debut and carries one of the league's best rookie projections coming into 2019. The trade of Russell Martin clears the path for him to be a full-time option for the Jays. He showed incredible plate discipline skills in the minors with a near-1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including an 11% walk rate. Emerging pop, top-flight speed for the position, and passable defense make him a complete package. If he can be around average at throwing runners out, he could be an overall plus defensively thanks to solid framing.

Reese McGuire and Luke Maile are defense-first backup options who won’t see much time at all if Jansen pans out as expected. At least McGuire is a former prospect with a tinge of upside.

2019 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

11. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Justin Smoak	644	.236	.333	.449	.337	10.2	-2.3	1.4	2.0
Kendrys Morales	35	.249	.320	.440	.326	0.2	-0.2	-0.0	0.1
Rowdy Tellez	21	.252	.311	.428	.317	-0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	700	.237	.331	.448	.336	10.4	-2.5	1.4	2.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Smoak couldn't replicate his 2017 breakout season, but his key numbers (25 homers, 121 wRC+, 1.7 WAR) still made it the second-best season of his nine-year major league career. The now-32-year-old switch hitter was more selective than ever at the plate, swinging at just 25.1% of pitches outside the strike zone and walking at a career-high 14.0% clip. The big drop was in his performance against lefties, as his 162 wRC+ in 144 PA in 2017 sank to 91 in 192 PA last year, which is more in line with his career norms.
The switch-hitting Morales, whose own performance against lefties cratered in 2018 (a 57 wRC+ in 151 PA, 50 points below his carer norm), made 17 starts at first base, his highest total since 2014. He's not nearly as much fun as Tellez, who somehow managed to hit .314/.329/.614 in 73 September plate appearances made in the wake of his mother's death from brain cancer. The 24-year-old lefty has 60-grade raw power but he's a fringe prospect with no clear path to more playing time unless Smoak or Morales gets out of the way.

2019 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

29. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Devon Travis	350	.261	.301	.417	.309	-2.6	0.2	-2.6	0.8
Brandon Drury	245	.242	.304	.384	.299	-3.7	-0.4	-0.9	0.4
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	70	.257	.295	.409	.302	-0.9	-0.0	-0.6	0.1
Richard Urena	35	.232	.268	.342	.264	-1.5	-0.0	0.1	-0.0
Total	700	.253	.300	.401	.303	-8.7	-0.2	-4.0	1.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In 2015 and 2016, Devon Travis put up 4.8 WAR in 670 plate appearances and seemed like a potential fixture in Toronto. The last two years, he has been worth 0.2 WAR in 578 plate appearances. Injuries have taken their toll, but now it also isn’t clear that Travis can still hit quality pitching. Brandon Drury was brought in a year ago by the Yankees as Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres' insurance/service time manipulation excuse. Both Andujar and Torres earned starting jobs while Drury played his way out of one. He hit well in Triple-A before getting shipped to the Blue Jays and is now Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette's insurance/service time manipulation excuse. Maybe a swing change can get him some pull power and make the J.A. Happ trade a winner for Toronto.
Gurriel should see more time at shortstop and Urena is a mildly interesting utility infielder, but the real intrigue at the position long-term comes in the form of Bichette, who plays shortstop but could move to second base in the majors. Bichette is more likely to see time in the bigs in 2020, but his presence should mean that the club doesn’t sit this low in the rankings again anytime soon.

2019 Positional Power Rankings: Third Base

10. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	595	.297	.360	.497	.364	22.5	-0.2	-2.2	4.3
Brandon Drury	91	.242	.304	.384	.299	-1.4	-0.1	-0.3	0.1
Richard Urena	14	.232	.268	.342	.264	-0.6	-0.0	0.0	-0.0
Total	700	.288	.351	.479	.354	20.5	-0.4	-2.5	4.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Although Brandon Drury had a tough year last year, what with hand, neck, and vision issues that limited him to 86 plate appearances and contributed to his -0.5 WAR for the season, it’s clear that he’s the better option for Toronto at third base than 20-year-old phenom Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., who hit .336/.414/.564 at Triple-A last year, is the consensus top prospect in all of baseball, and has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. Wait, something’s off here.
The Blue Jays caught a rather macabre break late last week when Guerrero was sidelined with a Grade 1 left oblique strain, which saved Toronto from itself and its shameful decision to keep the young man down in the minors just long enough to retain control of his tremendous talents for an extra year. Yes, I understand why Toronto might want to make the choice they were ready to make. That doesn’t make it any more defensible, and I sincerely hope the league’s new negotiations with the MLBPA lead to a system under which such choices no longer occur.
Anyway. With any luck, Guerrero will be in Toronto by May and will finally get the chance to test his elite plate discipline, power, and raw hitting ability against big-league pitching. The game is better off for having players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in it and I can’t wait until he’s up. In the meantime, I suppose Brandon Drury and Richard Urena will have to do.

2019 Positional Power Rankings: Left Field

24. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Billy McKinney	350	.236	.303	.421	.312	-1.7	-0.3	0.9	0.7
Teoscar Hernandez	280	.236	.300	.436	.316	-0.5	-0.2	-1.3	0.4
Anthony Alford	28	.216	.285	.321	.269	-1.1	0.0	0.2	-0.0
Jonathan Davis	28	.223	.295	.346	.283	-0.8	0.0	0.2	0.0
Dalton Pompey	14	.229	.298	.351	.286	-0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0
Total	700	.234	.300	.419	.310	-4.4	-0.4	0.1	1.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The Yankees coaxed more game power out of McKinney after the A's and Cubs could not, then flipped him to Toronto as part of the J.A. Happ deal. He got a month-long big league look late last year, and had powerful results (.470 SLG, .217 ISO) supported by the underlying contact quality (.459 xSLG per Baseball Savant). He'll likely turn into a perfectly serviceable everyday corner outfielder, the kind of role player needed in support of the young stars who will make up other parts of the roster.
Like McKinney in New York, Teoscar Hernandez was a potential everyday talent who was squeezed out of a crowded outfield picture in Houston. 2018 was his first full big league season and Hernandez hit for his trademark power (22 homers, .478 SLG) but also struck out 31% of the time, more than he ever has as a pro, and was worth a whopping -17.1 defensive WAR, making him the sixth-worst defensive player in baseball by that measure.
Hernandez is probably not that bad on defense, and I like the chances of the McKinney/Teoscar combo of becoming a good platoon combination during the Vlad/Bichette era in Toronto.
Alford is a frustrating, athletic enigma. At various times, I've been sure he'd become a star, while at others I haven't thought he'd be a viable big leaguer. His inconsistent play has been made more difficult to reconcile because he has been hurt a lot. He turns 25 in July. Davis and Dalton Pompey may turn into bench assets.

2019 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field

14. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Kevin Pillar	609	.259	.297	.405	.303	-7.3	1.8	5.7	2.3
Randal Grichuk	56	.243	.299	.497	.336	0.8	0.1	0.3	0.3
Jonathan Davis	21	.223	.295	.346	.283	-0.6	0.0	0.1	0.0
Anthony Alford	14	.216	.285	.321	.269	-0.6	0.0	0.1	0.0
Total	700	.256	.297	.409	.304	-7.6	1.9	6.3	2.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pillar briefly touched the edge of stardom, putting up 3.7 WAR on the back of +9 UZR defense in 2015 (+22 by DRS). His glove has slipped in recent years and he's no longer a likely Gold Glove contender, which is enough to drop Pillar and the Blue Jays CF position into the middle class. Without a top-of-the-league glove in center field, Pillar's low on-base percentages (.298 in the majors) and middling power leave him as Kiermaier with health swapped for defense.
Look for Pillar to be the subject of trade this summer, with the Jays very unlikely to be competitive, but the point at which the team could expect a major return is probably well in the rear-view mirror.

 

[phillipmike]

I pretty much agree with those rankings so far with the exception of 2B. I think they are underrating Gurriel, wouldnt surprise me to see 2 WAR season from Gurriel and a 1.5 WAR floor from a McKinney/Hernandez platoon.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I pretty much agree with those rankings so far with the exception of 2B. I think they are underrating Gurriel, wouldnt surprise me to see 2 WAR season from Gurriel and a 1.5 WAR floor from a McKinney/Hernandez platoon.

I'm bullish on Gurriel as well. The one positive from the Travis injury is that he'll get to play everyday at 2B (at least until Vlad comes up). His range plays up there nicely.

The projection systems are nerfing the babip, which they do generally. The steamer projection, with the fans projected babip, seems very appropriate.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Is Travis pretty much done at this point?

 

[zeke]

Just want to reiterate that the notable stockpiling of middle aged borderline arms right through AAA and into AA should mean that this jays team has less need of an 8-man bullpen than most any team in baseball.

 

[Discoverer]

Just want to reiterate that the notable stockpiling of middle aged borderline arms right through AAA and into AA should mean that this jays team has less need of an 8-man bullpen than most any team in baseball.

Just depends how many guys on the major league roster have options. With Tepera and Axford out to start the season, they're actually in a good position in that way. With those guys (as well as Phelps) on the DL to start the year and Richard filling a rotation spot until Buchholz is ready, it now looks like:

No options: Giles, Norris, Luciano
Options: Biagini, Gaviglio, Mayza, Pannone, Paulino, Reid-Foley, Thornton, Waguespack

And that assumes Perez, Merryweather, Murphy, and Diaz aren't ready for various reasons.

They have a ton of options for guys to send up and down when they need a fresh arm. Even when Richard joins the pen, they'll still have three spots they can rotate through.

 

[zeke]

Just depends how many guys on the major league roster have options.

I think my point is they shouldn't be keeping many guys who don't have options, given all the fungible arms they've collected that do.

 

[canucksfan]

Is Travis pretty much done at this point?

I would say yes, at least with the Jays. Guys are moving passed him on the depth chart and there are younger guys coming up that will get more opportunities. I feel sorry for Travis because without his injuries he could have been a fairly decent second baseman.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[canucksfan]

Romano likely heading back

 

[shaner8989]

Why is gaviglio still around. Guys utter trash

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He just can not stay healthy. Got Travis syndrome.

 

[Woodman19]

Edit: double post

 

[Woodman19]

 

[ShaneFalco]

Wrap that guy in bubble wrap

 

[The Nemesis]

Why is gaviglio still around. Guys utter trash

I mean, that's actually not true, but I should know by now not to expect you to deal in rationality and reality. kind of like how you can't make a post that's not needlessly hyperbolic and histrionic.