Sportsnet: Detroit scouting Weiss heavily

[doublejack]

No argument with that logic. Flip for Weiss, I am good with that. Or maybe a 3 way deal where we give up Flip and get Weiss. I'm even sort of OK with trading flip for some assets and giving up other assets for Weiss, so long as the net value is about the same.

I just see it as a huge mistake to give up prospects for Weiss given the state of the franchise.

 

[Winger98]

At this point, why wouldn't I? He's a UFA, coming to a team trending downwards. Unless we overpay to a ridiculous degree (for a guy that's topped 60 points a grand total of two times), is it really a given that he stays? That's a gamble for sure.

In any other year, I'd be fine with it... but this time around, I dunno.

True, I just assume that Holland has a reasonably good expectation for re-signing the guy if he trades for him. Also, waiting until the summer hasn't been kind to us lately, while other teams have been able to snap up guys by trading for their rights. If we did give up Jurco & 2nd, I don't think that's far off what we'd possibly give for his negotiating rights, plus we'd get to see how he actually looks on the team.

Aside from promoting from within, I'm starting to think trades are really the best way to bring in some new talent - whether that's trading for a player under contract, or trading for their negotiating rights. So rolling the dice with Weiss bothers me less.

 

[Rael]

I am fully against a full rebuild as we currently have two of the best 15 players in the world on this roster. Holland needs to start making some moves to give this team a chance to make and then to compete in the playoffs.

This. You can perfectly well see this season that Pav and Hank are able to carry all those mediocre players EVEN THOUGH there are soo many injuries. If not for some horrible gifts to other teams (especially last week) we'd still be right in the middle of the playoff spots.
Adding to that, we all saw last year what kind of defense can get you into the Stanley Cup Finals (NJD's best defender is Bryce f***ing Salvador...), together with a very old Martin Brodeur. I'm 100% sure Howard is able to match Brodeur's performance when he gets hot. Our defense, when healthy, can compete with the Devils'. Our forwards are just better...
In the end, you just have to somehow sneak into the playoffs (à la Kings) and everything is possible, ESPECIALLY with players like Hank and Pav who, so far this season, I'd even consider top 5 forwards in the league again.

 

[Xvash2]

No argument with that logic. Flip for Weiss, I am good with that. Or maybe a 3 way deal where we give up Flip and get Weiss. I'm even sort of OK with trading flip for some assets and giving up other assets for Weiss, so long as the net value is about the same.

I just see it as a huge mistake to give up prospects for Weiss given the state of the franchise.

Why would the Panthers have any interest in Filppula + garbage?

 

[RedMenace]

I'm not saying Jurco will be a savior or anything, but he has the potential to be a productive top six forward in the NHL. If Weiss wasn't knocking on 30's door I wouldn't object... but you don't give up futures for a player who won't be around - or at least won't be a contributor, by the time the team is good again.

Weiss is only 29, and you act like the Wings will be the Oilers or Blue Jackets for the next 10 years...

 

[Bench]

Why would the Panthers have any interest in Filppula + garbage?

One has to make assumptions when we're talking about a player with a NMC, which Weiss has.
They won't be able to sell him to the highest bidder, but the team he agrees to join. That's always a huge knock in the price. Since Detroit is kicking the tires on this heavily, we have to assume he's listed Detroit as a team he'd be willing to join.

Honestly, they'd be fortunate to get a player of Filppula's caliber under the circumstances. Wiess is basically a Derek Roy level guy and he returned Ott. That's a similar trade and value scenario.

 

[RedMenace]

One has to make assumptions when we're talking about a player with a NMC, which Weiss has.
They won't be able to sell him to the highest bidder, but the team he agrees to join. That's always a huge knock in the price. Since Detroit is kicking the tires on this heavily**, we have to assume he's listed Detroit as a team he'd be willing to join.

** Allegedly.

 

[Macoun]

This. You can perfectly well see this season that Pav and Hank are able to carry all those mediocre players EVEN THOUGH there are soo many injuries. If not for some horrible gifts to other teams (especially last week) we'd still be right in the middle of the playoff spots.
Adding to that, we all saw last year what kind of defense can get you into the Stanley Cup Finals (NJD's best defender is Bryce f***ing Salvador...), together with a very old Martin Brodeur. I'm 100% sure Howard is able to match Brodeur's performance when he gets hot. Our defense, when healthy, can compete with the Devils'. Our forwards are just better...
In the end, you just have to somehow sneak into the playoffs (à la Kings) and everything is possible, ESPECIALLY with players like Hank and Pav who, so far this season, I'd even consider top 5 forwards in the league again.

The difference between the wings defense and the devils defenseman is that umm the devils defenseman are good at playing defense

 

[Bench]

** Allegedly.

That's all we have to work with.

What I'm saying is that if Detroit was making this move, we can assume two things: 1) Weiss wants to play in Detroit and 2) Florida won't be maximum return for a UFA with a NMC.

Because of that, this screams Holland move to me. The payment won't be dramatic and he gets a veteran to add to the top 6. If anything, that's Holland in a nutshell over the last few years. He won't overpay and he doesn't want to trade for potential.

 

[RedMenace]

That's all we have to work with.

What I'm saying is that if Detroit was making this move, we can assume two things: 1) Weiss wants to play in Detroit and 2) Florida won't be maximum return for a UFA with a NMC.

Because of that, this screams Holland move to me. The payment won't be dramatic and he gets a veteran to add to the top 6. If anything, that's Holland in a nutshell over the last few years. He won't overpay and he doesn't want to trade for potential.

Right, other than the intrinsic uncertainty, I can totally get on board with what you're saying.

If this is, in fact, a possibility, I actually don't think it's a bad move and would add some much needed stability to the top-6 at the center position. If, Gordie forbid, Datsyuk does leave after next season, at least that gives the Wings 2 top-6 centers (plus Flip, if he doesn't go anywhere) with which to work until someone higher-profile can be acquired.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

At this point, I wonder if we could just pick up Fleischmann and see if Florida would pay at the very least somewhere between 15%-20% of the tab. Best move Holland could make with Florida.

 

[cupforwings09]

This would be a great pick up. Weiss is a solid 50 point per year center. That is something we could use.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Let's just pry Kulikov out of Florida before Tallon trades him to Chicago for some busted prospect.

 

[doublejack]

Weiss is only 29, and you act like the Wings will be the Oilers or Blue Jackets for the next 10 years...

Only 29? I realize by Holland standards that is young, but when you look at the NHL overall that is the point in time where players either start declining or are at risk of declining. Many are out of the league by then. How old is Cleary? Think he had 10 years left in the tank from age 29? Dude is 34 and looking pretty cooked to me.

If we're going to give up futures for roster players, those players should be in the 22-26 year old range. That way they are hitting their prime when we will (hopefully) be competing again. We do not need players in their prime, especially those peaking, as we're heading down. It doesn't look very good in terms of making the playoffs this season, and next season will be even worse. That's how it goes when a team is entering a rebuild era.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

This. You can perfectly well see this season that Pav and Hank are able to carry all those mediocre players EVEN THOUGH there are soo many injuries. If not for some horrible gifts to other teams (especially last week) we'd still be right in the middle of the playoff spots.
Adding to that, we all saw last year what kind of defense can get you into the Stanley Cup Finals (NJD's best defender is Bryce f***ing Salvador...), together with a very old Martin Brodeur. I'm 100% sure Howard is able to match Brodeur's performance when he gets hot. Our defense, when healthy, can compete with the Devils'. Our forwards are just better...
In the end, you just have to somehow sneak into the playoffs (à la Kings) and everything is possible, ESPECIALLY with players like Hank and Pav who, so far this season, I'd even consider top 5 forwards in the league again.

This is hopelessly optimistic. Cups are won with depth and defense and this team has neither. Compound that with small forwards (and big forwards who play small), awful special teams, and inconsistent goaltending and you have a team so dysfunctional that you cannot fix it solely on the trade market.

 

[RedMenace]

Only 29? I realize by Holland standards that is young, but when you look at the NHL overall that is the point in time where players either start declining or are at risk of declining. Many are out of the league by then. How old is Cleary? Think he had 10 years left in the tank from age 29? Dude is 34 and looking pretty cooked to me.

If we're going to give up futures for roster players, those players should be in the 22-26 year old range. That way they are hitting their prime when we will (hopefully) be competing again. We do not need players in their prime, especially those peaking, as we're heading down. It doesn't look very good in terms of making the playoffs this season, and next season will be even worse. That's how it goes when a team is entering a rebuild era.

Haha, well 29 isn't "over the hill" by NHL standards; in fact, many people consider that age to be prime. By 26 you're just getting into your first good contract, and by 29 you should be an established player with a club with a decent track record (you, not the club) and ready for the big, "set me for life" contract. Weiss has been with the Panthers his entire career and puts up pretty good numbers; he's comparable to Filppula in that regard, but more consistent and averages around 53% on faceoffs, of which he's averaged around 1300 the past 4 or 5 years.

You're also calling for a "rebuild," and I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. In fact, I'd bet on a coaching change before a team blow-up.

 

[Bench]

In fact, I'd bet on a coaching change before a team blow-up.

Ask Lindy Ruff!

 

[RedMenace]

Ask Lindy Ruff!

Oddly, he never even crossed my mind when I posted that... I need some sleep or beer or something.

 

[Bench]

Oddly, he never even crossed my mind when I posted that... I need some sleep or beer or something.

In fairness, Ruff was WAY past his expiration date, but that team is also not put together terribly well. They need to blow up a few pieces because a coaching change isn't going to cut it.

 

[RedMenace]

In fairness, Ruff was WAY past his expiration date, but that team is also not put together terribly well. They need to blow up a few pieces because a coaching change isn't going to cut it.

Yeah, change is necessary more often than people would like to admit, especially those whose livelihoods depend on doing something repeatedly; once you've tasted success with any particular method, it's hard to realize the need for change.

Also, the bolded part -- is that even possible? Like controlled demolition of a team? While you can't expect to make lemonade out of dog ****, someone has to start giving you lemons at some point, right?

.... or maybe "lemons" isn't a good analogy, I don't know. It's definitely beer:30, though.

 

[doublejack]

Haha, well 29 isn't "over the hill" by NHL standards; in fact, many people consider that age to be prime. By 26 you're just getting into your first good contract, and by 29 you should be an established player with a club with a decent track record (you, not the club) and ready for the big, "set me for life" contract. Weiss has been with the Panthers his entire career and puts up pretty good numbers; he's comparable to Filppula in that regard, but more consistent and averages around 53% on faceoffs, of which he's averaged around 1300 the past 4 or 5 years.

You're also calling for a "rebuild," and I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. In fact, I'd bet on a coaching change before a team blow-up.

Statistics tell a different story. Players peak point production generally happens between their 3rd and 5th season in the league, with a correlation to the age they first played a full NHL season. Going in the favor of Weiss is that he broke in to the league before he was 20, so his peak should have come later and his career will last longer, on average, versus players who break in while older.

Still, he has now been a pro for 10 years, and if we are to assume his career resembles something close to normal, is in decline.

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/CareerCurve-Krzywicki.pdf

The contract situation may be as you describe it, but a player's production is something different. By 26 the majority of players have already peaked, and by 29 they are in noticeable decline. There are of course exceptions, but that's taking on risk. I would rather go for a younger player than one who will be 30 and doesn't have a great history of production anyway (a pair of 60 point seasons and a single 50 point one).


As far as the rebuild, I'm not calling for it. I recognize that it has arrived. This team is awful by our standards, as I keep saying it is the worst the Wings have been in 20 years. Major changes are already happening... you have no choice when the likes of Lidstrom, Rafalski and Stuart all leave practically at the same time. Next up is Datsyuk, in all likelihood. That's a rebuild, folks. We are going to stink it up for a bit, and the longer it takes Holland to realize and react, the further we will fall.