Sporting News: Top 50 NHL Prospects

[w e l o s t b o y s]

went looking to see if bean or fox made the top 50
found ned

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

All you needed to say.

You haven't seen a kid play in two years yet are going by stats.

You've known me long enough that I evaluate players based on both stats and watching them play. Also throw in a gut feeling.

This list was more short term than long term, barring some exceptions. In the short term -- this season -- Nedeljkovic has a very good chance at being a No. 2 or eventually play himself into the No. 1. Scott Darling isn't Mt. Everest.

Shestyorkin OTOH has to beat out Henrik Lundqvist, and wait until next year to do it. You of all people should know that a weak depth chart historically is the perfect chance for a rookie to distinguish himself. Shestyorkin won't have that opportunity for quite some time. Do I think he's NHL caliber and future No. 1? Yes, but I'm banking on Nedeljkovic making an impact earlier.

Besides, most goalies take anywhere from five to 10 years post-draft to really reach their prime. Ranking goalies as teens or early 20's is playing darts blindfolded. Both these kids will give us a clearer picture in two years anyway.

I simply like Nedeljkovic better. Simple as that.

And I think Sorokin and Samsonov are superior to Shestyorkin. At least, it is very clear to me, especially technically and mentally -- post-save recovery, tracking, net awareness, stickhandling, reads, anticipation etc. Both are more athletic than Shestyorkin, as is Nedeljkovic.

Why are you acting so abrasive? You start a new thread with a link to your work. Do you not want feedback? Do you not anticipate where some will disagree? I'm sure you know that your opinion is different from the consensus here, so you shouldn't be trying to go after someone on non-content related grounds who questions your opinion.

Besides, you very well know I watch the different European leagues, junior hockey, college hockey, junior international hockey. I frankly have no reason to try to watch Nedeljkovic. I've not seen anyone else rank him especially high. I think the Carolina fans claimed they had him as their 15th best prospect. Your colleagues Craig Button, Corey Pronman and Chris Peters all have the same five goalies in their most recent top 5 goalie prospect lists. Pronman and Peters had extended lists. Pronman had 20+ listed, Peters had 15 listed. Neither had Nedeljkovic listed. Button only listed his top 5. By all means, you are allowed your opinion, and I think most here respect your opinion, but when you go far off the consensus, I don't think its unrealistic to ask why without being attacked for questioning your rankings.

And just on the substance of this discussion, I don't now if you are aware, but the Russian National Team goaltender coach said Shestyorkin is a better prospect than Sorokin. He didn't even really discuss Samsonov, as he's not on his radar yet, which at the very least should speak to current ability of the goalies. Here's part of his quote from a larger interview.

Honestly, every time Ilya came to my team, I saw the problems that he had and have. They were obvious. It took a couple of days to get back to normal. Sorokin did not have enough daily work. I would not say that everything is very bad there, but nevertheless ... In my opinion, Shestyorkin is much more interesting, technically differently equipped. In the regular season, this was clearly felt. Why did not you show up in the playoffs? Because when the club has a pronounced first number with a big contract, then it will play. Remember how last year Koskinen was injured, and Shestyorkin played with "Locomotive" two matches, and then began the final with "Magnitogorsk". But nevertheless finished the series anyway Koskinen. People signed to number one, should play. The situation in the club was very difficult. Shestyorkin coped with his work, he could continue playing, but Mikko raised the cup.

Sorokin went ahead and developed, but, unfortunately, at some point noticed that there was a stop in development, there was a little passive hockey in his performance.

«Шестёркин с Канадой – правильное решение». Вся правда о вратарях России

Here's a goalie magazine that compares Shestyorkin and Sorokin. It says Shestyorkin is a safer bet. Sorokin vs Shestyorkin: A Style Comparison - InGoal Magazine

I also don't get your comment that Shestyorkin isn't athletic. I've never heard that listed as a criticism of him. I think I've read just about everything claimed, but athleticism? Never heard that one. The link I posted above doesn't seem to think so. Even if he was less athletic than Samsonov and Sorokin, does that make him an un-athletic goalie? Samsonov is the most athletic goalie prospect in the game and Sorokin is probably #2. In fact, I'd like to know who would be the third most athletic before Shestyorkin. Others you have high like Hart or Demko certainly aren't more athletic. They are less athletic.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Veleno is way too high. Both in terms of the overall ranking, and being the 2nd highest in the Wings system.

Dahlin at #3 is laughable.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I don't mind different rankings, they're fun to read. Any position can be justified honestly, Petterson @ 1, Boqvist, Hughes, Kotka etc.

At least OP backs up his list with facts and opinion.

Only ranking I was truly surprised at was Nedeljkovic, but to each their own.

 

[sharks9]

Kotkaniemi that low is aburd, especially below guys like Veleno

 

[Tripod]

Kotkaniemi that low is aburd, especially below guys like Veleno

Today it is, but in the future, maybe he is right.

Right after the 2014 draft, imagine someone putting Pasternak(#25) above Dal Colle(#5) or Virtanen(#6).

Sure it's bold to say today, but long term is where it will determine if he is right or not.

 

[Mrb1p]

Today it is, but in the future, maybe he is right.

Right after the 2014 draft, imagine someone putting Pasternak(#25) above Dal Colle(#5) or Virtanen(#6).

Sure it's bold to say today, but long term is where it will determine if he is right or not.

But the same can be said of any prospect really

Anyway, Kotkaniemi isnt even the worst ranking there... Dahlin at 3 is ridiculous.

 

[WhatWhat]

Good lord your rankings are horrible

 

[Club]

Thanks for taking the time to do this!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Today it is, but in the future, maybe he is right.

Right after the 2014 draft, imagine someone putting Pasternak(#25) above Dal Colle(#5) or Virtanen(#6).

Sure it's bold to say today, but long term is where it will determine if he is right or not.

Imagine right after the 2015 draft, someone putting Draisatl at #1, Eichel at #2 and McDavid at #3.

 

[Mrb1p]

Imagine right after the 2015 draft, someone putting Draisatl at #1, Eichel at #2 and McDavid at #3.

Its pretty muxh 100% the same thing and its f***ing ridiculous.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'd much rather read 5 rankings developed independently, than 5 guys trying to guess what the "consensus" is. Thanks for this.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He’s no longer eligible for the Calder. Played more than 6 games in 2 different seasons.

"To be eligible for the award, a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons in any major professional league. "

From the definition, it sounds like he'd have to have played 6 or more games in the two seasons prior to him playing in the NHL full time. So if the season in question is 2018-19 to determine if he's Calder eligible, then he couldn't have played in 6 or more games in 2017-18 (1st preceding season) and 2016-17 (2nd preceding season).

But the thing is, Sprong didn't play professional in 2016-17, which would be part of the "any of two preceding seasons" criteria. He played 18 games in 2015-16 (three years ago), was sent back to junior for the 2016-17 season, then played in the AHL in 2017-18.

So unless I'm misunderstanding the wording of "in each of any two preceding seasons", he should be eligible because he didn't play any professional games in 2016-17.

 

[Vujtek]

"To be eligible for the award, a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons in any major professional league. "

From the definition, it sounds like he'd have to have played 6 or more games in the two seasons prior to him playing in the NHL full time. So if the season in question is 2018-19 to determine if he's Calder eligible, then he couldn't have played in 6 or more games in 2017-18 (1st preceding season) and 2016-17 (2nd preceding season).

But the thing is, Sprong didn't play professional in 2016-17, which would be part of the "any of two preceding seasons" criteria. He played 18 games in 2015-16 (three years ago), was sent back to junior for the 2016-17 season, then played in the AHL in 2017-18.

So unless I'm misunderstanding the wording of "in each of any two preceding seasons", he should be eligible because he didn't play any professional games in 2016-17.

It's "any two preceding seasons", meaning they don't have to be the two seasons immediately prior, nor even consecutive seasons. Any seasons of atleast 6 games will count.

An example would be Kenny Agostino. He played 8 games in 2013-14, 2 games in 2015-16 and 7 games in 2016-17. He was not eligible for Calder in 2017-18 season anymore (you can check it with nhl.com by looking at Bruins' player stats and definining the criteria to include only rookies; Agostino's stats aren't shown then, thus he was not Calder eligible last season).

Sprong is not Calder eligible anymore.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Why are you acting so abrasive? You start a new thread with a link to your work. Do you not want feedback? Do you not anticipate where some will disagree? I'm sure you know that your opinion is different from the consensus here, so you shouldn't be trying to go after someone on non-content related grounds who questions your opinion.

Besides, you very well know I watch the different European leagues, junior hockey, college hockey, junior international hockey. I frankly have no reason to try to watch Nedeljkovic. I've not seen anyone else rank him especially high. I think the Carolina fans claimed they had him as their 15th best prospect. Your colleagues Craig Button, Corey Pronman and Chris Peters all have the same five goalies in their most recent top 5 goalie prospect lists. Pronman and Peters had extended lists. Pronman had 20+ listed, Peters had 15 listed. Neither had Nedeljkovic listed. Button only listed his top 5. By all means, you are allowed your opinion, and I think most here respect your opinion, but when you go far off the consensus, I don't think its unrealistic to ask why without being attacked for questioning your rankings.

And just on the substance of this discussion, I don't now if you are aware, but the Russian National Team goaltender coach said Shestyorkin is a better prospect than Sorokin. He didn't even really discuss Samsonov, as he's not on his radar yet, which at the very least should speak to current ability of the goalies. Here's part of his quote from a larger interview.



«Шестёркин с Канадой – правильное решение». Вся правда о вратарях России

Here's a goalie magazine that compares Shestyorkin and Sorokin. It says Shestyorkin is a safer bet. Sorokin vs Shestyorkin: A Style Comparison - InGoal Magazine

I also don't get your comment that Shestyorkin isn't athletic. I've never heard that listed as a criticism of him. I think I've read just about everything claimed, but athleticism? Never heard that one. The link I posted above doesn't seem to think so. Even if he was less athletic than Samsonov and Sorokin, does that make him an un-athletic goalie? Samsonov is the most athletic goalie prospect in the game and Sorokin is probably #2. In fact, I'd like to know who would be the third most athletic before Shestyorkin. Others you have high like Hart or Demko certainly aren't more athletic. They are less athletic.

What was abrasive about my post? You initiated the debate by saying my ranking was "pretty dumb". All I did was point out that you are arguing against a prospect you haven't physically seen play in two years.

And I never said Shestyorkin wasn't athletic. All goalies are athletic. Some just are more than others, which is exactly what I said.

I have no problem with people disagreeing. I wouldn't post on here if I did. The goal in presenting this list is to spark debate and give fans something to argue about in a dull offseason.

Some rankings use consensus opinion, with the help of articles like the one you linked, or HF Fan polls on team boards where there is no requirement to vote except be a fan.

Mine don't.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I don't understand people saying too high on EP. He destroyed a pro league at 18. Who's better and did better than him for the 1st spot?

Also where is Lias Andersson?

His AHL and SHL production were excellent for a draft+1. Still concerned about his upside as an NHLer, which I think is more 3C than 1C.

That's why I ranked CHL players like Kyrou and Frost over him, albeit begrudgingly, because those two may have a higher bust potential IMO but also the kind of star potential that Andersson doesn't have.

I'm re-ranking in January based mostly on how they do AUG-JAN so chances are he cracks the Top 50.

 

[Ace]

I thought nothing could top being the only person to rank Dahlin second in this year’s draft rankings.

I was wrong.

The problem remains an utter lack of understanding of positional value. If you’d take Tarasenko over Erik Karlsson I wish you were a gm my team could trade with. If you’d take a lottery ticket on a guy becoming Tarasenko over a guy who already understands defense better than Karlsson while having elite possession and offensive upside on top of it...I which you were all of the GMs.

 

[Novacain]

Kostin at 22 and Kyrou at 48?

There is a lot of weird stuff on this list, but yeah, as a Blues fan, this is a weird one. For perspective, the Blues HFboard on their prospect rating had Kyrou as our No.2 with 87 percent of the vote, but Kostin finished 4th barely over Bokk at 53%

 

[RememberTheName]

I don’t know how you could say these prospect rankings are ‘terrible’. Each person and scout will have different opinions on different players. What are they supposed to do, follow the norm and make the exact rankings that everyone else makes because it is what is expected to be right. That is not how it works. Predicting prospects is pretty much a game of chance. I don’t see anything wrong with him having different t opinions than the rest of us, because more likely than not, he is going to be right on some of them. At least he backs up his rankings with his opinions on players

 

[Dbrownss]

There is a lot of weird stuff on this list, but yeah, as a Blues fan, this is a weird one. For perspective, the Blues HFboard on their prospect rating had Kyrou as our No.2 with 87 percent of the vote, but Kostin finished 4th barely over Bokk at 53%

Even outside of the Blues fan board. There is ZERO to indicate Kostin is ahead of Kyrou. Blues management hasn't indicated this in any way. Those who watched both on the ice at the same time during summer camp hasn't indicated it either. From all sources outside of AHL points > Junior points....there is nothing to back this opinion


Too add to this, his criticism of Kyrou is he has to elevate his gameplay in big games, with the exception of world tournaments. That's creating a biased narrative. Is it a focus on the most recent playoffs? Because if so, he went in injured and received little support. That assessment reeks of stat watching.

 

[Dbrownss]

Delete

 

[WetcoastOrca]

There’s being controversial and then there’s being just plain wrong. I think in a couple of years having Dahlin at number three is just going to look laughable.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Good stuff, Steve. Larsson was supposed to be that two-way guy, but the offense never came. Have really high hopes for Smith.

Curious, where were the next Devils ranked?

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Delete. Triple post

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Delete.

 

[Thrasymachus]

Why should it matter what team I'm a fan of? I'm not quibbling the top couple rankings about the players on my team. I'm disagreeing with a serious oversight, in my opinion. Should I also say I disagree with your Dahlin placement? I'm no Sabres fan. You should've anticipated people disagreeing with your controversial rankings. Are you really going to push back at disagreement by mentioning what team they are a fan of? That should have nothing to do with this.

Would you have Shestyorkin higher if he played on some bad AHL team and was the first keeper with bad stats? Will he get bumped up in about a month when he's slated to become the #1? If you are to be consistent, he should. Its also worth mentioning that the goalie coach of his own team, the same team he wasn't the #1 on, said he was the best goalie in the league during the time he wasn't the #1. But lets completely ignore contract status, and act like there's some serious question if he could be the #1. You are also wrong that he's never played for a weak team. He's played for a good team the last two years. In the MHL and VHL, he never played on a team that was anywhere near as good relative to their competition as SKA is now. Before he transferred to SKA, he wasn't playing with a great team at Spartak Moscow.

And you know what, when has Samsonov been the #1 on his team? When has he played for a bad team? He hasn't. Sorokin hasn't played for a bad team for even longer than Shestyorkin hasn't. It just seems a very inconsistent process you are using here. I don't quibble with your rankings, but I think this is a serious oversight. I've got nothing against Nedeljkovic. Admittedly I haven't watched him play since the WJC, but those stats don't make me think he's better than top flight goalie prospects. I wasn't trying to take a stand against him. He very well may be a decent mid-tier goalie prospect. Saying he has a better chance at being a #1 than Shestyorkin is ludicrous, in my opinion. If he gets to the NHL quicker, it'll be because of Carolina's lack of depth. I'm not even sure that prediction will be right. Shestyorkin will likely be in the NHL to start 2019-20.

Oh c'mon man would you really be here defending Shestyorkin if you weren't a rangers fan? The Samsonov Shest. Sorokin debate is very close, to complain that the ranger goalie is ranked the lowest in this poll is a little silly.