Sporting News: Top 25 under 25 for 2019-20

nbwingsfan

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
20,843
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Dunn is a nice, smallish skill defender who produces in soft minutes.

Comparing him to guys 3 years younger who were playing huge top-4 roles on bad teams is ridiculous. Dunn isn't close to the level of those guys and the minutes he played reflect it.

I don’t know if I call 6’0/205pds a small defender?
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
More of an observation, less trying to make a point for either Dunn or Dahlin-

Zone starts have quickly become the most overrated “advanced” stat ever. Worse than Corsi. Nearly all shifts start on the fly.

It's a minor stat, but I didn't even bring it up. And NST has data for on-the-fly starts. The truth is that zone draws are matchup driven, which come into play as the player gets older, even more so for defensemen. Overlooking usage for young defensemen renders the study incomplete.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,438
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Waterloo Ontario
But we're not talking about the entire league. The title is "Top 25 under 25", so it's an exclusive group where these best of that group are compared against one another. When compared against the other seven players ranked ahead of him, Draisaitl ranks below Point, Matthews, Marner and Pastrnak in significant categories, some, as in Marner's case, include PK stats. Shot and scoring chance data on the PK clearly indicate that Toronto's Pk with Marner is more effective than when Draisaitl is on the ice. If you just went by word of mouth or basic stats, you'd never realize that.

Your response does not help your case. It simply emphasizes the fact that you are misusing statistics. It is irrelevant that you are only comparing players in the top 25. If the stat you quote is useless in making direct comparisons then this does not change anything. Quite frankly the fact that you would quote xGF%rel as the stat to compare players like Marner and Draisaitl tells me you either do not understand the limitations of the stat or you are being disingenuous. Similarly quoting shots and scoring chances on the pk with no additional context tells me the same. Misuse of advanced statistics does not add to the evidence in favor of your position. It detracts from your credibility.

The truth is that Draisaitl relies heavily on McDavid to produce -- a good 65% of his points McDavid factored in, ands that's just on the scoresheet and not including Draisaitl's points where McDavid didn't register a goal or an assist but still was on the ice. Half of Draisaitl's goals drew a McDavid primary assist, yet only 32% of Pastrnak's 38 goals were via a Marchand primary assist.
It was inevitable that this argument would come up. But again in presenting it you have shown a complete lack of context. Moreover you may actually want to check your numbers. McDavid had 14 assist on Draisailt's 28 5 vs 5 goals for 50% but only 11 of those were primary assists which is 39%. And why just pick out Marchand and ignore first assists by Bergeron, the other star on the line? Those two combined for 10 primary assists on Pasternak's 20 5 vs 5 goals. And away from those two yu can throw in David Krejci with 5 more assits and 3 primaries. Who else was helping out Drasiatl 5 vs 5. Away from McDavid Draisaitl played almost exclusively with plugs. The vast majority of the time it was with guys who are either not in the league or are bottom six players at best. Take away McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Chiasson and Kassian and the rest of the Oilers forwards scored a grand total of 44 goals last year with 7 of those by Drake Caggiula. They had a total of 117 points combined. But of course, all that really matters is how many points a guy gets with McDavid because we all know that none of those are really earned. And for the record, Draisaitl is actually first and foremost a playmaker. He had assists on 13 of McDavid's 24 goals or 54%. So maybe this is not such a one way street.

As I said in my previous post...You outlined your methodology and then ignored it. If someone feels that Marner or Pastrnak are better than Draiatll so be it. But if you are going to present this as a professional analysis please don't try and snow anyone with bad or misleading statistics.
 
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Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Your response does not help your case. It simply emphasizes the fact that you are misusing statistics. It is irrelevant that you are only comparing players in the top 25. If the stat you quote is useless in making direct comparisons then this does not change anything. Quite frankly the fact that you would quote xGF%rel as the stat to compare players like Marner and Draisaitl tells me you either do not understand the limitations of the stat or you are being disingenuous. Similarly quoting shots and scoring chances on the pk with no additional context tells me the same. Misuse of advanced statistics does not add to the evidence in favor of your position. It detracts from your credibility.


It was inevitable that this argument would come up. But again in presenting it you have shown a complete lack of context. Moreover you may actually want to check your numbers. McDavid had 14 assist on Draisailt's 28 5 vs 5 goals for 50% but only 11 of those were primary assists which is 39%. And why just pick out Marchand and ignore first assists by Bergeron, the other star on the line? Those two combined for 10 primary assists on Pasternak's 20 5 vs 5 goals. And away from those two yu can throw in David Krejci with 5 more assits and 3 primaries. Who else was helping out Drasiatl 5 vs 5. Away from McDavid Draisaitl played almost exclusively with plugs. The vast majority of the time it was with guys who are either not in the league or are bottom six players at best. Take away McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Chiasson and Kassian and the rest of the Oilers forwards scored a grand total of 44 goals last year with 7 of those by Drake Caggiula. They had a total of 117 points combined. But of course, all that really matters is how many points a guy gets with McDavid because we all know that none of those are really earned. And for the record, Draisaitl is actually first and foremost a playmaker. He had assists on 13 of McDavid's 24 goals or 54%. So maybe this is not such a one way street.

As I said in my previous post...You outlined your methodology and then ignored it. If someone feels that Marner or Pastrnak are better than Draiatll so be it. But if you are going to present this as a professional analysis please don't try and snow anyone with bad or misleading statistics.

Stop. You’re trying to make a case that Connor Friggin McDavid’s favorite target at almost 23 mins a game is somehow at a disadvantage. Over 80 percent of those polled today picked Pastrnak over Draisaitl based on the most significant advanced stats out there, or at least most of them. It was a totally objective study, and I bet Oilers fans themselves picked Pastrnak without knowing who the two players were.

Marner destroyed Draisaitl in 5v5 play and on the PK. Look it up. If I posted the same poll it would be 90/10 or 95/5 in favor of Marner.

Pastrnak’s traditional p/g was 1.23 to Draisaitl’s 1.28 and he played near four minutes less per game. That totally puts the above averages in proper context — Pastrnak did more with his usage than Draisaitl did with his.

Sorry, but the rate and rel categories were chosen BEFORE the players were identified. Once the data was analyzed, the rankings took form.

Discredit the rankings all you want. It really was just for fun and break the monotony of traditional annual lists that totally ignore analytics and parrot fan polls.

If I ranked Draisaitl ahead of Marner, Matthews, and Pastrnak, it would cause more of an uproar by the objective collective rather than the handful of homers who lack said objectivity.
 

204hockey

#whiteout
Sep 29, 2017
3,481
2,468
Wow. Wasn't expecting much for obvious reasons, but this one swiftly goes south as we get below rank 20 or so. Names such as Drouin, Nurse etc. over some of the omissions is simply dreadful. And let's wait for Kakko and Hughes to prove something at the NHL level before having them over players such as Ehlers.
but the list was based on what they did not what potentialy will do .... oh wait those didnt even play 1 nhl game with this ranking ? ?? s/
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,438
19,571
Waterloo Ontario
Stop. You’re trying to make a case that Connor Friggin McDavid’s favorite target at almost 23 mins a game is somehow at a disadvantage. Over 80 percent of those polled today picked Pastrnak over Draisaitl based on the most significant advanced stats out there, or at least most of them. It was a totally objective study, and I bet Oilers fans themselves picked Pastrnak without knowing who the two players were.

Marner destroyed Draisaitl in 5v5 play and on the PK. Look it up. If I posted the same poll it would be 90/10 or 95/5 in favor of Marner.

Pastrnak’s traditional p/g was 1.23 to Draisaitl’s 1.28 and he played near four minutes less per game. That totally puts the above averages in proper context — Pastrnak did more with his usage than Draisaitl did with his.

Sorry, but the rate and rel categories were chosen BEFORE the players were identified. Once the data was analyzed, the rankings took form.

Discredit the rankings all you want. It really was just for fun and break the monotony of traditional annual lists that totally ignore analytics and parrot fan polls.

If I ranked Draisaitl ahead of Marner, Matthews, and Pastrnak, it would cause more of an uproar by the objective collective rather than the handful of homers who lack said objectivity.

I am not sure if you did not read my post, could not understand it, or are simply making things up because I never even came close to saying that playing with McDavid was a disadvantage.

Your response though does bring up a significant point. Can you quantify the McDavid effect? It seems that the clear implication is that McDavid markedly and uniformly inflates others scoring while playing with two stars such as Bergeron and Marchand does not. And on top of that how does one then explain that the individual 5 v5 scoring rate for the Oilers next best player after McDavid and Draisaitl was actually higher away from McDavid than it was with him over the last two years. Was he not "Connor Friggin McDavid" when he played with Nugent-Hopkins??? Do your numbers tell you why this happened or is it perhaps context that matters here.

The poll is very easy to discredit. The vast majority of the stats you quoted, (really all of them) are meaningless in comparing players without context. Frankly the more you say about this the more you prove to me that you fundamentally misunderstand what these numbers can and cannot tell you. If this is not the case then you are being completely disingenuous. Any competent professional mathematician or statistician would tell you that. It is one thing for the random poster on this board not to understand the uses and limitations of these "advanced" statistics. It's quite another for someone who is writing in an industry publication.

As I have said on multiple occasions, I have no problem what so ever with anyone including you choosing Marner or Pasternak over Draisaitl. This conversation started with a comment you made about Draisaitl having to prove he is not a one-year wonder and my criticism of your use of xGF%rel as your chosen stat. Instead of acknowledging that neither statement had merit you decided to double down and offer me up a series of "fancy" numbers perhaps hoping to confuse me into believing that you had done some deep analysis.
 
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Lampedampe

Registered User
Feb 26, 2015
2,132
749
Again, how is it a mistake choosing Svechnikov over Dahlin? It hasn't had a negative impact on Carolina, and last season Svechnikov was one of the game's best producers of scoring chances despite being a bottom-6 teenager. Now that he's getting bigger minutes, he's dominating.

I'm sure that Canes fans are very happy with Svechnikov, but how is that even remotely relevant?
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
I am not sure if you did not read my post, could not understand it, or are simply making things up because I never even came close to saying that playing with McDavid was a disadvantage.

Your response though does bring up a significant point. Can you quantify the McDavid effect? It seems that the clear implication is that McDavid markedly and uniformly inflates others scoring while playing with two stars such as Bergeron and Marchand does not. And on top of that how does one then explain that the individual 5 v5 scoring rate for the Oilers next best player after McDavid and Draisaitl was actually higher away from McDavid than it was with him over the last two years. Was he not "Connor Friggin McDavid" when he played with Nugent-Hopkins??? Do your numbers tell you why this happened or is it perhaps context that matters here.

The poll is very easy to discredit. The vast majority of the stats you quoted, (really all of them) are meaningless in comparing players without context. Frankly the more you say about this the more you prove to me that you fundamentally misunderstand what these numbers can and cannot tell you. If this is not the case then you are being completely disingenuous. Any competent professional mathematician or statistician would tell you that. It is one thing for the random poster on this board not to understand the uses and limitations of these "advanced" statistics. It's quite another for someone who is writing in an industry publication.

As I have said on multiple occasions, I have no problem what so ever with anyone including you choosing Marner or Pasternak over Draisaitl. This conversation started with a comment you made about Draisaitl having to prove he is not a one-year wonder and my criticism of your use of xGF%rel as your chosen stat. Instead of acknowledging that neither statement had merit you decided to double down and offer me up a series of "fancy" numbers perhaps hoping to confuse me into believing that you had done some deep analysis.

The bolded is just ridiculous. The "fancy" numbers comment kind of proves my whole point, and you are the one saying it it I who is not providing context????

The "fancy" numbers do provide context! It takes a 105-point season and completely eliminates the gap between the 81-point season. Once you're done, the debate becomes totally legitimate, especially when you realize both are top-line players who are consistently matched up against the opposing top matchups.

What's so "fancy" about goals/60? It's literally goals scored against ice time.

Pastrnak averaged 1.27 goals/60
Draisaitl averaged 1.22 goals/60

What's so "fancy" about individual scoring chances/60? It's literally scoring chances against ice time.

Pastrnak averaged 8.36 iSC/60
Draisaitl averaged 6.57 iSC/60

What's so "fancy" about penalties drawn/60? It's literally what the stat says -- how many penalties you're forcing opponents to take every 3 games or so.

Pastrnak averaged 1.46 PD/60
Draisaitl averaged 0.91 PD/60

And I clearly explained the Draisaitl comment -- that McDavid helped him go from being an excellent player to a superstar, but it's only been one year. If he regresses back to 30/70 or slumps and is taken off his line, then you are totally ignorant if you think the perception towards Draisaitl doesn't change from elite player to very good or above average. Same thing happened to Jonathan Cheechoo (Thornton), Adam Graves (Messier), Rob Brown (Mario) etc etc.

Perception is reality. The perception outside of Edmonton is that Draisaitl hit 50 and 100 mainly because he plays with McDavid. That doesn't mean he won't make AS teams or the HOF, or that he isn't one of the game's elite talents. He was a high pick and has lived up to expectations.

So even if I threw out the relative stats, the rate stats clearly show that the two players are incredibly close or equal, and the study certainly doesn't deserve discrediting because a homer is mad at his guy being ranked 8th versus being ranked 7th.
 

Lampedampe

Registered User
Feb 26, 2015
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The implication was that ranking Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin was a bad thing. If that were the case, the fans of the "mistake" would be unanimous in swapping for the desired choice.

Uhm okay, but using that logic couldn't you also argue that Dahlin is better because Sabres fans would be unanimous in keeping Dahlin over Svech?
 
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tsujimoto74

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May 28, 2012
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The implication was that ranking Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin was a bad thing. If that were the case, the fans of the "mistake" would be unanimous in swapping for the desired choice.

Logic falls apart if you think for a half second about what Sabres fans would say to that trade ("no and please never call this number again")
 
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Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Logic falls apart if you think for a half second about what Sabres fans would say to that trade ("no and please never call this number again")

Who cares what Sabres fans think? Of course they take Dahlin over Svechnikov, which is why I mocked him to the Sabres every time before the draft. Draft rankings are based on long-term potential. You think Svechnikov doesn't have 40-80 potential? On that team?

My point (which apparently is floating somewhere above the stratosphere) is that a Sabres fan saying "This is the guy who ranked Svechnikov over Dahlin" isn't a slight in the least bit, not to me and definitely not to the majority of Carolina fans. I guess some really can't grasp the idea that the 2018 draft might actually produce other elite players.

Why don't we wait until Svechnikov doesn't dominate-- small sample sizes or not -- before we act like ranking him ahead of Dahlin was some crime against humanity.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,438
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Waterloo Ontario
The bolded is just ridiculous. The "fancy" numbers comment kind of proves my whole point, and you are the one saying it it I who is not providing context????

The "fancy" numbers do provide context! It takes a 105-point season and completely eliminates the gap between the 81-point season. Once you're done, the debate becomes totally legitimate, especially when you realize both are top-line players who are consistently matched up against the opposing top matchups.

What's so "fancy" about goals/60? It's literally goals scored against ice time.

Pastrnak averaged 1.27 goals/60
Draisaitl averaged 1.22 goals/60

What's so "fancy" about individual scoring chances/60? It's literally scoring chances against ice time.

Pastrnak averaged 8.36 iSC/60
Draisaitl averaged 6.57 iSC/60

What's so "fancy" about penalties drawn/60? It's literally what the stat says -- how many penalties you're forcing opponents to take every 3 games or so.

Pastrnak averaged 1.46 PD/60
Draisaitl averaged 0.91 PD/60

And I clearly explained the Draisaitl comment -- that McDavid helped him go from being an excellent player to a superstar, but it's only been one year. If he regresses back to 30/70 or slumps and is taken off his line, then you are totally ignorant if you think the perception towards Draisaitl doesn't change from elite player to very good or above average. Same thing happened to Jonathan Cheechoo (Thornton), Adam Graves (Messier), Rob Brown (Mario) etc etc.

Perception is reality. The perception outside of Edmonton is that Draisaitl hit 50 and 100 mainly because he plays with McDavid. That doesn't mean he won't make AS teams or the HOF, or that he isn't one of the game's elite talents. He was a high pick and has lived up to expectations.

So even if I threw out the relative stats, the rate stats clearly show that the two players are incredibly close or equal, and the study certainly doesn't deserve discrediting because a homer is mad at his guy being ranked 8th versus being ranked 7th.

You seem to be simply digging yourself a deeper hole here.

Let me address the last bolded point first. I did not discredit the study because I did not like the results. (You can see that I have previously acknowledged on multiple occasions that I am fine that someone may have ordered the players as you did.) The study is discredited because it is simply bad analysis. And that has nothing to do with being a homer by the way.

As for the /60 numbers. Do you understand the limitations of these stats, especially without context? I'll ask a very simple question...Are points a purely linear function of TOI? And another...Why did I ask this question?

With respect to the regression to 30/70 you are once more changing the goal posts. Originally it was 30/80. But even at 30/70 let's see how this plays out. Over the last three years 24 players have averaged 70 or more points per year and 24 have average 30 or more goals per year. 13 players have done both. Here they are

1) McDavid 112g 324pts
2) Kucherov 120g 313pts
3) Crosby 108g 278pts
4) Kane 105g 275 pts
5) Marchand 109g 270pts
6) Draisaitl 104g 252 pts
7) MacKinnon 96g 249pts
8) Ovechkin 133g 245pts
9) Malkin 96g 242 pts
10) Tavares 112g 238pts
11) Pastrnak 107g 231 pts
12) Sequin 99g 230pts
13) Scheifele 93g 226pts

So it seems your 30/70 threshold may not really be "one year wonder territory". Plus how many of these guys did it playing with plugs. This time we are only talking about basic numeracy by the way.

As for perception = reality, isn't this precisely what you are suppose to be trying to overcome??
 
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tsujimoto74

Moderator
May 28, 2012
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Who cares what Sabres fans think? Of course they take Dahlin over Svechnikov, which is why I mocked him to the Sabres every time before the draft. Draft rankings are based on long-term potential. You think Svechnikov doesn't have 40-80 potential? On that team?

My point (which apparently is floating somewhere above the stratosphere) is that a Sabres fan saying "This is the guy who ranked Svechnikov over Dahlin" isn't a slight in the least bit, not to me and definitely not to the majority of Carolina fans. I guess some really can't grasp the idea that the 2018 draft might actually produce other elite players.

Why don't we wait until Svechnikov doesn't dominate-- small sample sizes or not -- before we act like ranking him ahead of Dahlin was some crime against humanity.

Eichel is an elite hockey player with awesome talent. I'd still pay for his plane ticket if Edmonton called up and offered to swap McDavid for him. Not all elite players are equal.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
You seem to be simply digging yourself a deeper hole here.

Let me address the last bolded point first. I did not discredit the study because I did not like the results. (You can see that I have previously acknowledged on multiple occasions that I am fine that someone may have ordered the players as you did.) The study is discredited because it is simply bad analysis. And that has nothing to do with being a homer by the way.

As for the /60 numbers. Do you understand the limitations of these stats, especially without context? I'll ask a very simple question...Are points a purely linear function of TOI? And another...Why did I ask this question?

With respect to the regression to 30/70 you are once more changing the goal posts. Originally it was 30/80. But even at 30/70 let's see how this plays out. Over the last three years 24 players have averaged 70 or more games per year. 13 players have done both. Here they are

1) McDavid 112g 324pts
2) Kucherov 120g 313pts
3) Crosby 108g 278pts
4) Kane 105g 275 pts
5) Marchand 109g 270pts
6) Draisaitl 104g 252 pts
7) MacKinnon 96g 249pts
8) Ovechkin 133g 245pts
9) Malkin 96g 242 pts
10) Tavares 112g 238pts
11) Pastrnak 107g 231 pts
12) Sequin 99g 230pts
13) Scheifele 93g 226pts

So it seems your 30/70 threshold may not really be "one year wonder territory". Plus how many of these guys did it playing with plugs. This time we are only talking about basic numeracy by the way.

As for perception = reality, isn't this precisely what you are suppose to be trying to overcome??

The study was the 2018-19 season. That's it. Literally 2018-19 on-ice and individual production, on-ice rates and on-ice relative numbers.

Also, the fact that you continue to ignore the difference between 50/100 and 30/80 or 30/70 is pretty crazy.

That cherry-picked list you made INCLUDES Draisaitl's 105-point season and doesn't include P/60, which again, was a critical aspect of the study.

Both Pastrnak and Draisaitl became full-time NHL'ers in 2015-16. From 2015-16 to 2017-18, Draisaitl was 28th in the NHL in P/60 (2.73), Pastrnak was 13th (2.99):

NHL.com - Stats

If you include 2018-19, Pastrnak jumps to 8th (3.23) in P/60 rate since 2015-16. Draisaitl is 20th (2.93).

Those ranked ahead of Pastrnak?

Kucherov (3.75)
McDavid (3.64)
Malkin (3.59)
Marchand (3.38)
Crosby (3.36)
Stamkos (3.36)
Kane (3.31)

Also ranked ahead of Draisaitl:

Gaudreau
Marner
Panarin
Matthews
Kuznetsov
Kessel
Wheeler
Barzal
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Hall

Clear-cut distinction between 1-8 and 9-19 in terms of reputation. One has nothing but 1st-ballot HOF'ers, the other more of a mixed bag.
 

Matthews34

Registered User
Oct 9, 2009
1,431
801
Uxbridge
Marner and Matthews at 4 and 5 what click bait nonsense. Are they even top ten??? Not on my list. This is why Leaf players get no respect. between Leaf fans and media I don't know who's worse.
 
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Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Eichel is an elite hockey player with awesome talent. I'd still pay for his plane ticket if Edmonton called up and offered to swap McDavid for him. Not all elite players are equal.

You're using hindsight. Plus IIRC the Sabres board after the 2015-16 season were pretty active on the main boards trying to convince others that Eichel would be the better player. It took McDavid's 2017 season to end that for good.

Is Hedman better than Tavares? Is Doughty better than Stamkos? Is Reilly better than Forsberg? It's an apples and oranges discussion. What Dahlin is doing is excellent, but my take is that many people have a serious disconnect with what Svechnikov has done in Carolina.
 

Siludin

Registered User
Dec 9, 2010
7,304
5,228
Call me CRAZY but if Kevin Labanc is an honorable mention, maybe Bo Horvat should be too?
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,438
19,571
Waterloo Ontario
The study was the 2018-19 season. That's it. Literally 2018-19 on-ice and individual production, on-ice rates and on-ice relative numbers.

Also, the fact that you continue to ignore the difference between 50/100 and 30/80 or 30/70 is pretty crazy.

That cherry-picked list you made INCLUDES Draisaitl's 105-point season and doesn't include P/60, which again, was a critical aspect of the study.

Both Pastrnak and Draisaitl became full-time NHL'ers in 2015-16. From 2015-16 to 2017-18, Draisaitl was 28th in the NHL in P/60 (2.73), Pastrnak was 13th (2.99):

NHL.com - Stats

If you include 2018-19, Pastrnak jumps to 8th (3.23) in P/60 rate since 2015-16. Draisaitl is 20th (2.93).

Those ranked ahead of Pastrnak?

Kucherov (3.75)
McDavid (3.64)
Malkin (3.59)
Marchand (3.38)
Crosby (3.36)
Stamkos (3.36)
Kane (3.31)

Also ranked ahead of Draisaitl:

Gaudreau
Marner
Panarin
Matthews
Kuznetsov
Kessel
Wheeler
Barzal
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Hall

Clear-cut distinction between 1-8 and 9-19 in terms of reputation. One has nothing but 1st-ballot HOF'ers, the other more of a mixed bag.

And the hole gets even deeper. The list of players has nothing to do with Draisaitl vs Pastrnak. You read that in yourself. It is there to show you how few players actually hit the 30/70 standard that you seem to suggest would be the "one-year wonder" threshold. Remove Draisaitl if you wish. Now you have 12. How many of those 12 are not elite? And by the way if you check my post history I use three year averages almost any time I post something like this.

And you did not answer my question about pts/60. So I will take it to be that you either did not understand why I asked the question or even what the question meant. Instead you triple down on bad analysis based on a flawed belief that in isolation the numbers you post prove what you intend them to prove.

Frankly I have no idea what your technical background is. But I can assure you that I know what your numbers can and cannot tell someone. Can you say the same???
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
And the hole gets even deeper. The list of players has nothing to do with Draisaitl vs Pastrnak. You read that in yourself. It is there to show you how few players actually hit the 30/70 standard that you seem to suggest would be the "one-year wonder" threshold. Remove Draisaitl if you wish. Now you have 12. How many of those 12 are not elite? And by the way if you check my post history I use three year averages almost any time I post something like this.

And you did not answer my question about pts/60. So I will take it to be that you either did not understand why I asked the question or even what the question meant. Instead you triple down on bad analysis based on a flawed belief that in isolation the numbers you post prove what you intend them to prove.

Frankly I have no idea what your technical background is. But I can assure you that I know what your numbers can and cannot tell someone. Can you say the same???

Oh I totally see what you're trying to say. It's just riddled with bias. You're trying to discredit Pastrnak's superior numbers by requesting "context" when a HUGE point of analytics is to...wait for it...add context. I'm going to guess your inclusion of the term "fancy stats" means you're probably too old to accept them, or incapable to understand what they mean.

You cherry-picked a time period as if it's some sort of industry standard, ignoring the raw data that comes to a pretty basic conclusion -- Pastrnak is as productive Draisaitl, and is in fact very much a part of that group you mentioned.

I say again, Pastrnak is as productive as Draisaitl. And I won't even get into the fact that Draisaitl's cap hit is a whopping $2M more per year.

And the fact that you keep clinging to this completely insignificant "one-year wonder" comment is your way ignoring that Pastrnak is worthy of the ranking and hiding your inability to accept/understand both the methodology used and the definition and purpose of the stats used.

It's been clarified multiple times, that a 50/100 season is not the same as a 30/80 season. That's why the now-retired NHL Official Guide and Record Book had a section dedicated to 50-goal scorers and 100-point scorers. I own every addition, and i couldn't seem to find the 30/80 page.

Those players you listed?

McDavid -- 3 x 100-point seasons
Kucherov -- 2 x 100-point seasons
Crosby 6 x 100-point seasons
Kane 2 x 100-point seasons
Marchand 3 x 80-point seasons
MacKinnon 2 x 90-point seasons
Ovechkin 5 x 90-point seasons
Malkin 4 x 90-point seasons
Tavares -- 4 x 80-point seasons
Sequin -- 2 x 80-point seasons
Scheifele -- 2 x 80-point seasons

Draisaitl's 2019 is the only season he hit over 80 points. One season. Everyone else on the list did it more than once.
 

ijuka

Registered User
May 14, 2016
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14,648
Oh I totally see what you're trying to say. It's just riddled with bias. You're trying to discredit Pastrnak's superior numbers by requesting "context" when a HUGE point of analytics is to...wait for it...add context. I'm going to guess your inclusion of the term "fancy stats" means you're probably too old to accept them, or incapable to understand what they mean.

You cherry-picked a time period as if it's some sort of industry standard, ignoring the raw data that comes to a pretty basic conclusion -- Pastrnak is as productive Draisaitl, and is in fact very much a part of that group you mentioned.

I say again, Pastrnak is as productive as Draisaitl. And I won't even get into the fact that Draisaitl's cap hit is a whopping $2M more per year.

And the fact that you keep clinging to this completely insignificant "one-year wonder" comment is your way ignoring that Pastrnak is worthy of the ranking and hiding your inability to accept/understand both the methodology used and the definition and purpose of the stats used.

It's been clarified multiple times, that a 50/100 season is not the same as a 30/80 season. That's why the now-retired NHL Official Guide and Record Book had a section dedicated to 50-goal scorers and 100-point scorers. I own every addition, and i couldn't seem to find the 30/80 page.

Those players you listed?

McDavid -- 3 x 100-point seasons
Kucherov -- 2 x 100-point seasons
Crosby 6 x 100-point seasons
Kane 2 x 100-point seasons
Marchand 3 x 80-point seasons
MacKinnon 2 x 90-point seasons
Ovechkin 5 x 90-point seasons
Malkin 4 x 90-point seasons
Tavares -- 4 x 80-point seasons
Sequin -- 2 x 80-point seasons
Scheifele -- 2 x 80-point seasons

Draisaitl's 2019 is the only season he hit over 80 points. One season. Everyone else on the list did it more than once.
This argument's nonsensical at worst, tired at best. So Pastrnak's had a 81 point season and a 80 point season. Draisaitl's had a 77 point season and a 105 point season. You think Pastrnak's done better because he had multiple 80-point seasons? Sorry, but that's ridiculous. If this is how you rank players, it's no wonder your lists are so far detached from reality.

My anecdotal opinion is that Draisaitl's a lot scarier to face than Pastrnak, and Draisaitl's also shown far more ability to take over games all on his own, even playing next to significantly lacking talent.
 
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