Sporting News: Top 25 under 25 for 2019-20

[Snippit]

Just a reminder that this guy had Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin before the draft...

 

[Fourier]

Based on resume...... Drai at #8 lol

Here you go...

His ability to contribute beyond the low slot makes him an ideal fit on McDavid’s flank, but at a minimum, he’ll need to come close to duplicating his production in order to avoid being labeled a one-year wonder.

Going back to the beginning of the 2016 season he sits 6th overall in scoring behind McDavid, Kucherov, Crosby, Kane and Marchand, but if he doesn't put up 50 goals and over 100- points he will be a one year wonder.

 

[izzy]

as a blues fan i say bravo

 

[wetcoast]

Started and immediately see Dahlin and Heiskanen below Dunn. What in the actual ****?

sure that sticks out for me but as I scrolled down the list, I didn't see anything else glaring out of place.

Disclaimer is that I'm really drunk and reserve the right to use that defense if something else is pointed out to me.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Here you go...



Going back to the beginning of the 2016 season he sits 6th overall in scoring behind McDavid, Kucherov, Crosby, Kane and Marchand, but if he doesn't put up 50 goals and over 100- points he will be a one year wonder.

He was 36th in scoring two years ago. Besides, I clearly was referring to 50 and 105. Previous high was 29 and 77. 21-goal, 28-point difference.

Pretty sure people will be disappointed if the best he does this year is 30/80

 

[zar]

He was 36th in scoring two years ago. Besides, I clearly was referring to 50 and 105. Previous high was 29 and 77. 21-goal, 28-point difference.

Pretty sure people will be disappointed if the best he does this year is 30/80

… And what was Marner and Points previous highs?

… And who are the offensive defenceman that Draisaitl gets to play with?

... And who is the other winger on the line with McDavid and Draisaitl?

What’s Pastrnak’s production like away from Marchand and Bergeron?

There is truly no reason that those 3 rank ahead of Draisaitl.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Just a reminder that this guy had Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin before the draft...

Thanks! Always love unsolicited support for my decision to slightly favor one of the best wingers on the best team in the East who is tied with Connor McDavid with an NHL-best six assists after leading the ENTIRE league last season as a teenage rookie in xGF%/60 at 5v5.

Glad I’m not the only one recognizing Svechnikov’s star potential.

 

[CycloneSweep]

How does that compare to ice time per game?

Per 60 rates are silly as they rarely stay the same with more ice time

 

[Steve Kournianos]

… And what was Marner and Points previous highs?

… And who are the offensive defenceman that Draisaitl gets to play with?

... And who is the other winger on the line with McDavid and Draisaitl?

What’s Pastrnak’s production like away from Marchand and Bergeron?

There is truly no reason that those 3 rank ahead of Draisaitl.

Natural Stat Trick will give you plenty of reasons. Or Corsica. Or Hockey Reference.

Here’s one:

xGF%rel:

Marner 3.09
Draisaitl 1.00

 

[Snippit]

Thanks! Always love unsolicited support for my decision to slightly favor one of the best wingers on the best team in the East who is tied with Connor McDavid with an NHL-best six assists after leading the ENTIRE league last season as a teenage rookie in xGF%/60 at 5v5.

Glad I’m not the only one recognizing Svechnikov’s star potential.

Wait...you're still holding on to that decision?

It's one thing to have made a mistake at draft time...this is just wow

 

[zar]

Natural Stat Trick will give you plenty of reasons. Or Corsica. Or Hockey Reference.

Here’s one:

xGF%rel:

Marner 3.09
Draisaitl 1.00

Please link the page where you are getting these stats

Also, how many Oiler games did you watch last year. Please be honest.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Garbage list.

Oh wait, this is written by the guy who claimed Svech>Dahlin? Explains everything then. Absolutely atrocious from top to bottom.

 

[Fourier]

He was 36th in scoring two years ago. Besides, I clearly was referring to 50 and 105. Previous high was 29 and 77. 21-goal, 28-point difference.

Pretty sure people will be disappointed if the best he does this year is 30/80

Here is your stated primary criteria for evaluation:

This list is not based on potential like other prospect or draft-related stuff I've done. This is based purely on resumes, with 2018-19 season production at 5v5 amongst 25-and-under peers the foundation of the analysis.

They may well be disappointed if he scores 30/80 because watching him he is capable of more if he is healthy. And this is not even a bad thing. Of the players you have on your list ahead of Draisaitl how many have exceeded 30/80 more than once?

Pasternak barely accomplished this with 35 and 80 in 2017-2018 and 38 and 81 last year. Points previous high was 32 and 66. Marner was 22 and 69. Matthews was 40 goals and 73 points so he has never even reached the 80 point threshold. Prior to last year Barkov's high was 28 goals and 78 points. MacKinnon has two straight years of 97 and 99 points so he is the only one on the list above Draisaitl not named McDavid who has any history of exceeding your "disappointment" level for Draisaitl. But you save the term "one year wonder" for a guy who has actually been quite a consistent scorer compared with some of the other players you have ranked ahead of him.

You are free to rank players how ever you like. I think there are legitimate arguments that could be made to choose any of these players over Leon just as there are legitimate arguments to choose Leon over several of those above him. But in this case your ranking does not actually match your stated criteria. And if you are going to post it on the board it is very reasonable to assume that people will point out such obvious contradictions.

 

[Fourier]

Natural Stat Trick will give you plenty of reasons. Or Corsica. Or Hockey Reference.

Here’s one:

xGF%rel:

Marner 3.09
Draisaitl 1.00

Of all the arguments you could possibly come up with this is the one you choose? Do you understand how meaningless a comparison like this actually is in assessing players relative ability? Or would you say that Cal Clutterbuck is better than both or that Zack Hyman is the Leaf's best forward?

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Wait...you're still holding on to that decision?

It's one thing to have made a mistake at draft time...this is just wow

I'd say calling Svechnikov a "mistake" is a lot bolder than choosing him over Dahlin. Go to the Carolina board and ask them if they have any sleepless nights having Svechnikov on their playoff-bound roster.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Is Nylander just an accidental omission? Or do you really think he’s not top 50?

Incomplete season. 65+ games was cutoff for fowards unless it was an extra notable season which Nylander didn’t have

How does that make sense when you have rookies (Kakko, Hughes etc.) listed?

 

[sabremike]

I'd say calling Svechnikov a "mistake" is a lot bolder than choosing him over Dahlin. Go to the Carolina board and ask them if they have any sleepless nights having Svechnikov on their playoff-bound roster.

He was not saying that Svetch was a mistake, he was saying you putting him over Dahlin was (which is certainly my stance because Svetch is a tremendous player but Dahlin is pretty much a unicorn).

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Of all the arguments you could possibly come up with this is the one you choose? Do you understand how meaningless a comparison like this actually is in assessing players relative ability? Or would you say that Cal Clutterbuck is better than both or that Zack Hyman is the Leaf's best forward?

But we're not talking about the entire league. The title is "Top 25 under 25", so it's an exclusive group where these best of that group are compared against one another. When compared against the other seven players ranked ahead of him, Draisaitl ranks below Point, Matthews, Marner and Pastrnak in significant categories, some, as in Marner's case, include PK stats. Shot and scoring chance data on the PK clearly indicate that Toronto's Pk with Marner is more effective than when Draisaitl is on the ice. If you just went by word of mouth or basic stats, you'd never realize that.

The truth is that Draisaitl relies heavily on McDavid to produce -- a good 65% of his points McDavid factored in, ands that's just on the scoresheet and not including Draisaitl's points where McDavid didn't register a goal or an assist but still was on the ice. Half of Draisaitl's goals drew a McDavid primary assist, yet only 32% of Pastrnak's 38 goals were via a Marchand primary assist.

Please link the page where you are getting these stats

Also, how many Oiler games did you watch last year. Please be honest.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick


It's irrelevant how many games I watched, but FWIW I watched a decent chunk of the Oilers because of my Calder Watch and I had to see Pettersson (division rival), plus Bouchard, Yamamoto, Jones. I'd say maybe 10-15 full games, with a few full periods here and there. But eye test only made up a small portion of it. I can counter by asking if you watched 10-15 games of Marner, Pastrnak, Point, Barkov, Matthews and MacKinnon.

But again, that's irrelevant since every player on the list's upper tier are elite players. Once you get the scouting aspects out of the way, I can use analytics and usage to rate them amongst their peers.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

How does that make sense when you have rookies (Kakko, Hughes etc.) listed?

There's no "etc" -- Kakko and Hughes were added because they are special talents and I made an exception for them. While the rest of the list had nothing to do with potential and went solely on 2018-19 production, those two warranted the exception. The rest of the forwards were given a 65+ game cutoff.

Nylander missed almost 30 games and did not do well enough in those 50+ matches for an exception to be made. On the list I did last year for my blog, he was ranked 21st, so it's not like I'm ignoring his abilities. If he bounces back with another strong season like 2017 or 2018, he's likely back in the top 25

 

[Steve Kournianos]

He was not saying that Svetch was a mistake, he was saying you putting him over Dahlin was (which is certainly my stance because Svetch is a tremendous player but Dahlin is pretty much a unicorn).

Again, how is it a mistake choosing Svechnikov over Dahlin? It hasn't had a negative impact on Carolina, and last season Svechnikov was one of the game's best producers of scoring chances despite being a bottom-6 teenager. Now that he's getting bigger minutes, he's dominating.

 

[b in vancouver]

… And what was Marner and Points previous highs?

… And who are the offensive defenceman that Draisaitl gets to play with?

... And who is the other winger on the line with McDavid and Draisaitl?

What’s Pastrnak’s production like away from Marchand and Bergeron?

There is truly no reason that those 3 rank ahead of Draisaitl.

I think Drai, Pasta and Marner are pretty much a coin-flip that comes down to preference. If you swapped Drai playing with Bergeron and Marchand it would be just as dominant while Pasta and McDavid would be a constant hi-light reel.
Gun to head I'd probably go Pasta - Drai - Marner but that might just be because I find Pasta to be more enjoyable to watch and appreciate him taking less money and the stuff about his dad - as he's just an easy player to cheer for.

There's no real wrong answer in putting those three in any order at the moment.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Garbage list.

Oh wait, this is written by the guy who claimed Svech>Dahlin? Explains everything then. Absolutely atrocious from top to bottom.

Oh wait. you're the guy who argued for months that Tyler Myers was far better than Victor Hedman. Explains everything.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I think Drai, Pasta and Marner are pretty much a coin-flip that comes down to preference. If you swapped Drai playing with Bergeron and Marchand it would be just as dominant while Pasta and McDavid would be a constant hi-light reel.
Gun to head I'd probably go Pasta - Drai - Marner but that might just be because I find Pasta to be more enjoyable to watch and appreciate him taking less money and the stuff about his dad - as he's just an easy player to cheer for.

There's no real wrong answer in putting those three in any order at the moment.

Although I didn't use a coin, I agree that it is way too close for the types of reactions I'm getting from Oilers and Sabres fans, who are angry despite both having two of the game's elite 25-and-under stars, and in Edmonton's case, two of the top eight. It's not a slight at all when you're talking about the difference of 1-5 slots.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I guess this is one way to sidestep Dunn’s vastly superior 5v5 numbers.

And Dahlin had 57% ozone starts to Dunn’s 60%. Dzone starts dead even at 18.7%

32 of Dahlin’s 44 points involved Eichel or Skinner — 73%!!!!!

12 of Dunn’s 35 points involved ROR or Tarasenko — 34%

More of an observation, less trying to make a point for either Dunn or Dahlin-

Zone starts have quickly become the most overrated “advanced” stat ever. Worse than Corsi. Nearly all shifts start on the fly.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Player A is Pastrnak (82% at 246 votes)
Player B is Draisaitl (18% at 246 votes)