Proposal: Speculation: Rumours: Done Deals: Trade Deadline 2019 ...

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deletethis

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Mar 17, 2015
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Want to guess what UFA 2nd. pairing 27 year old right handed defenders are going to get this summer?

They're talking starting the bidding on one-way Gardiner 6+ on a long term contract.

There is a premium for RD, there are about 50% more LD than RD in the NHL.

Fair point.
 

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
14,371
9,674
Waterloo
IMO Zaitsev is paid above his pay grade and will continue to paid above his pay grade for 5 more seasons. That always reduces market value significantly.

This interaction is something that is fundamentally irrational in the NHL.

Let's say that Zaitsev is deemed to be "worth" his contract. Not a steal, just worth it. A 4.5 million dollar 4D signed long term is a big time positive asset. Neutral contract -> positive value

Let's say Zaitsev is a 5D worth 3 million, and is signed to that long term. Not as valuable because he's a lesser player, but still a valuable asset. Again, neutral contract -> positive value.

A contract doesn't have to be a net efficiency (player underpaid relative to market) for that player to have trade value. Despite how cap centric TSN culture has us, player value still in most part defined by contribution. The interaction between contract relative to contribution certainly has an impact, but it is not so powerful that a slight contract innefficiency completely erodes player value to the negative.

Zaitsev floats somewhere between a 4 and a 5. He's worth 3-3.5. There better deals out there but at 3-3.5 that's par. The positive value of a 4-5 RHD signed long term should outweigh the negative of the ~1mil innefficiency, or at very least break even. Paying to get rid of him is not a smart move
 

mapleleafs34

Registered User
Apr 7, 2011
1,082
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Both of those guys are RW's... And would be our 4th best ones at that.

I'm not paying that price, especially if teams like Boston are going to be interested and bidding high on them.
Kapanen-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Simmonds

I don't see a problem :sarcasm:
 
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The Podium

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
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This interaction is something that is fundamentally irrational in the NHL.

Let's say that Zaitsev is deemed to be "worth" his contract. Not a steal, just worth it. A 4.5 million dollar 4D signed long term is a big time positive asset. Neutral contract -> positive value

Let's say Zaitsev is a 5D worth 3 million, and is signed to that long term. Not as valuable because he's a lesser player, but still a valuable asset. Again, neutral contract -> positive value.

A contract doesn't have to be a net efficiency (player underpaid relative to market) for that player to have trade value. Despite how cap centric TSN culture has us, player value still in most part defined by contribution. The interaction between contract relative to contribution certainly has an impact, but it is not so powerful that a slight contract innefficiency completely erodes player value to the negative.

Zaitsev floats somewhere between a 4 and a 5. He's worth 3-3.5. There better deals out there but at 3-3.5 that's par. The positive value of a 4-5 RHD signed long term should outweigh the negative of the ~1mil innefficiency, or at very least break even. Paying to get rid of him is not a smart move

A market for Zaitsev wont exist until after July 1st. Teams who miss out of the B level talent out there for D will be looking elsewhere, and once middle pairing RHD are given a blank check Zaitsev will appear more palatable.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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I'd prefer to dump Zaitsev for nothing than keep him

say him + Engvall for a pick

Why is trading him for value not an option?

It's just like an impossible notion to people for some reason. Because people think he has too long of term (which ends when he is 32, but apparently Zaitsev is going to be one of those rare cases who starts to suck in his late 20's...) and he makes too much money/term, even though teams would probably end up paying him more if he hit UFA.

Look at what guys like De Haan, Alzner, etc. were getting in UFA as LD. De Haan came off of a major injury too, and it was not his first. Look at what Stralman is probably going to get in UFA this year at 32. De Haan's deal ends at 31, but Alzner's goes until he is 33/34 and is far more likely to fall apart early than Zaitsev (in fact, he's already fallen apart), and Stralman is already the age that Zaitsev would be when he would be a UFA, and there's a good chance he could make north of 5 mill this year on a 4 or 5 year type deal, even though he's not even playing that amazing and has been injured.

And if you want to look at the UFA market for defense this year... It is not pretty.

RD Erik Karlsson
RD Tyler Myers
LD Jake Gardiner
LD Alex Edler
LD Zdeno Chara
LD Marc Methot
RD Anton Stralman
RD Nick Jensen
LD Jay Bouwmeester
RD Ron Hainsey

Everyone else would not even be top 4 defensemen on bad teams, and even the last two or three are stretching it. Now consider this, everyone except Karlsson, Myers, Gardiner and Jensen are older now than Zaitsev would be when his deal ends. Some of those guys are going to re-sign with their old teams (i.e. Chara). Others like Karlsson, Jensen, and Edler have been reported to be wanted by their current teams right now too. Teams want top 4 defensemen all of the time, will not have a great crop to choose from, and will have to pay that crop 1+ mill more than they would need to pay Zaitsev... And we have to pay other teams to take on Zaitsev?

Sorry, but that does not make sense to me. Teams can call us to pay us to take Zaitsev off of our hands, and they'll need to come with a lot more than the paltry packages thrown around on HFBoards. Because if Dubas has half a brain-cell, which I think he does, I think he realizes that Zaitsev is a better option than most of his UFA/trade alternatives.
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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A market for Zaitsev wont exist until after July 1st. Teams who miss out of the B level talent out there for D will be looking elsewhere, and once middle pairing RHD are given a blank check Zaitsev will appear more palatable.

There will be a market before July 1st, and teams will probably make their decision to trade for him before July 1st, because there is no guarantee that their team is not on Zaitsev's NTC that kicks in July 1st.

By the time the draft rolls around, there is a good chance that we know whether a lot of his competition is sticking with their current teams or will be hitting the open market. If a deal was not already completed for Zaitsev, then there is probably going to be a lot of framework in place with multiple teams and then after talking with some of the guys in UFA during the pre-July 1st period, they will decide.
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
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A market for Zaitsev wont exist until after July 1st. Teams who miss out of the B level talent out there for D will be looking elsewhere, and once middle pairing RHD are given a blank check Zaitsev will appear more palatable.

I don't think that's entirely accurate. The interest should be there around the draft. Teams will have a very good idea of the talent making it to free agency and their own cap structure. If Zaitsev is seen as someone they can fit for at least a few years and provide them with middle pairing depth and they think he's pretty good (and some teams will think he's good) then interest should be decent.

The RHD market this free agency is very very bad after Karlsson (who will likely re-sign in SJ I assume). Stralman... McQuaid... Jensen... Girardi? Lovejoy? Rutta? It's pretty bad. If I'm a team in the market for a defenseman and I have a lot of cap space, Zaitsev is awhole lot better than the majority of whoever I can pick up here.

It's possible that Zaitsev is dealt after July 1st but with a modified NTC kicking in, whoever has interest might want to trade for him before that, and the Leafs will want to move him before.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
This interaction is something that is fundamentally irrational in the NHL.

Let's say that Zaitsev is deemed to be "worth" his contract. Not a steal, just worth it. A 4.5 million dollar 4D signed long term is a big time positive asset. Neutral contract -> positive value

Let's say Zaitsev is a 5D worth 3 million, and is signed to that long term. Not as valuable because he's a lesser player, but still a valuable asset. Again, neutral contract -> positive value.

A contract doesn't have to be a net efficiency (player underpaid relative to market) for that player to have trade value. Despite how cap centric TSN culture has us, player value still in most part defined by contribution. The interaction between contract relative to contribution certainly has an impact, but it is not so powerful that a slight contract innefficiency completely erodes player value to the negative.

Zaitsev floats somewhere between a 4 and a 5. He's worth 3-3.5. There better deals out there but at 3-3.5 that's par. The positive value of a 4-5 RHD signed long term should outweigh the negative of the ~1mil innefficiency, or at very least break even. Paying to get rid of him is not a smart move

Honestly, guys floating between a 4 and a 5 at Zaitsev age still would be making 4.5 mill, and he's not a #5 on any team unless they have a defense like Nashville's. He'd be a #4 on most teams, and a #3 on a few as well. This is with him "struggling" with Gardiner. Look at what Alzner and De Haan were getting, and those guys are not concrete top 4 guys anymore than Zaitsev is (if anything, they are less so). De Haan came off of a major injury no less, which was not the first of his career either.

I can see Dubas taking below market value for Zaitsev just to move him. I do not think that is necessary, nor necessarily smart unless it is a part of a larger plan which involves properly replacing him, but that is within reason. But like you said, he'd have no brain cells or would need one heck of a plan that requires Zaitsev moving out (which even then would not be much of a justification) to justify treating this guy like a cap dump and paying our assets to move him off of the team.
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
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I don't think that's entirely accurate. The interest should be there around the draft. Teams will have a very good idea of the talent making it to free agency and their own cap structure. If Zaitsev is seen as someone they can fit for at least a few years and provide them with middle pairing depth and they think he's pretty good (and some teams will think he's good) then interest should be decent.

The RHD market this free agency is very very bad after Karlsson (who will likely re-sign in SJ I assume). Stralman... McQuaid... Jensen... Girardi? Lovejoy? Rutta? It's pretty bad. If I'm a team in the market for a defenseman and I have a lot of cap space, Zaitsev is awhole lot better than the majority of whoever I can pick up here.

It's possible that Zaitsev is dealt after July 1st but with a modified NTC kicking in, whoever has interest might want to trade for him before that, and the Leafs will want to move him before.

Karlsson, Myers, Jensen, Stralman are the only ones who are even worth mentioning. The rest are at best passable bottom pairing guys, but they would have to take less money and lower their cap hit for any sort of playoff team (which is likely tight on cap) to justify bringing them on.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
11,629
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Why is trading him for value not an option?

It's just like an impossible notion to people for some reason. Because people think he has too long of term (which ends when he is 32, but apparently Zaitsev is going to be one of those rare cases who starts to suck in his late 20's...) and he makes too much money/term, even though teams would probably end up paying him more if he hit UFA.

Look at what guys like De Haan, Alzner, etc. were getting in UFA as LD. De Haan came off of a major injury too, and it was not his first. Look at what Stralman is probably going to get in UFA this year at 32. De Haan's deal ends at 31, but Alzner's goes until he is 33/34 and is far more likely to fall apart early than Zaitsev (in fact, he's already fallen apart), and Stralman is already the age that Zaitsev would be when he would be a UFA, and there's a good chance he could make north of 5 mill this year on a 4 or 5 year type deal, even though he's not even playing that amazing and has been injured.

And if you want to look at the UFA market for defense this year... It is not pretty.

RD Erik Karlsson
RD Tyler Myers
LD Jake Gardiner
LD Alex Edler
LD Zdeno Chara
LD Marc Methot
RD Anton Stralman
RD Nick Jensen
LD Jay Bouwmeester
RD Ron Hainsey

Everyone else would not even be top 4 defensemen on bad teams, and even the last two or three are stretching it. Now consider this, everyone except Karlsson, Myers, Gardiner and Jensen are older now than Zaitsev would be when his deal ends. Some of those guys are going to re-sign with their old teams (i.e. Chara). Others like Karlsson, Jensen, and Edler have been reported to be wanted by their current teams right now too. Teams want top 4 defensemen all of the time, will not have a great crop to choose from, and will have to pay that crop 1+ mill more than they would need to pay Zaitsev... And we have to pay other teams to take on Zaitsev?

Sorry, but that does not make sense to me. Teams can call us to pay us to take Zaitsev off of our hands, and they'll need to come with a lot more than the paltry packages thrown around on HFBoards. Because if Dubas has half a brain-cell, which I think he does, I think he realizes that Zaitsev is a better option than most of his UFA/trade alternatives.

he has 5 years left on his deal. Players with that much term rarely get moved for value
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
51,546
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he has 5 years left on his deal. Players with that much term rarely get moved for value

He won't return much value. I'd expect a bad/average roster player (but cheaper) in return, maybe picks exchange to balance value.

Zaitsev for Stecher is a deal I could see.

Zaitsev for Honka/Carrick is another possibility.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
11,629
6,249
He won't return much value. I'd expect a bad/average roster player (but cheaper) in return, maybe picks exchange to balance value.

Zaitsev for Stecher is a deal I could see.

Zaitsev for Honka/Carrick is another possibility.

Stecher + gagner for Zaitsev is interesting.

but how much would it cost to have Gagner in the minors vs a buyout?
 
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SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
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Stecher + gagner for Zaitsev is interesting.

but how much would it cost to have Gagner in the minors vs a buyout?

Good call on Gagner, someone the Leafs likely wouldn't mind taking back since he's been good for the Marlies. If the Canucks and their massive amount of cap space next season don't mind retaining on Gagner up to 50%, it could be possible. If we bury his 50% retained contract, the cap hit becomes around 900k.

If the Leaf were to buy out Gagner, they would save just a little over 2M on his 3.15M cap hit. Cap hit would be a hair over 1M for next 2 years.

So that means Zaitsev 4.5M for Stecher 2.3M and Gagner (1M cap hit buy out), which gives us a saving of 1.2M.... not really good enough but might be the only way of shedding Zaitsev.
 
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Macallan18

Registered User
Aug 10, 2015
9,558
5,492
I know how you feel. I feel the same way about these proclamation posts. Any bad trade proposal post is infinitely more fun. What's next? A post explaining to all of us "that's why people hate Leafs fans." The only point of these posts is to shame to silence.
No problem. I use the ignore button for people like you.
 

deletethis

Registered User
Mar 17, 2015
7,910
2,486
Toronto
Fans imprint hard on rumoured names once they get floated. Is it just me who thinks Micheal Ferland is nothing more than Connor Brown with opportunity (and sheltered minutes - 39.7% defensive zone starts)? Ferland would come to Toronto and produce like Connor Brown without the power play time.

Confirmed:
Ferland EV points in 2019-20: 19
Brown EV points in 2019-20: 18
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
51,546
32,305
Fans imprint hard on rumoured names once they get floated. Is it just me who thinks Micheal Ferland is nothing more than Connor Brown with opportunity (and sheltered minutes - 39.7% defensive zone starts)? Ferland would come to Toronto and produce like Connor Brown without the power play time.

Confirmed:
Ferland EV points in 2019-20: 19
Brown EV points in 2019-20: 18

He's definitely overrated for his contributions. People really want a "gritty" LW around here though.
 
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Walshy7

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Sep 18, 2016
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He's definitely overrated for his contributions. People really want a "gritty" LW around here though.

is ferland not grittier than Brown? so a grittier player who scores the same or slightly better? sounds good to me if oyu could swap them. Brown is not gritty what so ever.

This depends on if ferland is gritty though, id rather pull my own eyes out than watch a Carolina game that doesn't involve the leafs
 

WTFMAN99

Registered User
Jun 17, 2009
32,835
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is ferland not grittier than Brown? so a grittier player who scores the same or slightly better? sounds good to me if oyu could swap them. Brown is not gritty what so ever.

This depends on if ferland is gritty though, id rather pull my own eyes out than watch a Carolina game that doesn't involve the leafs

Ferland is very gritty.

This is from a playoff series in 2015 when Calgary "upset" Vancouver. He hasn't changed that much. I went with this clip because it is decently long and it is easier to see the impact he made in a series.

 
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Walshy7

Registered User
Sep 18, 2016
25,326
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Toronto
Ferland is very gritty.

This is from a playoff series in 2015 when Calgary "upset" Vancouver. He hasn't changed that much. I went with this clip because it is decently long and it is easier to see the impact he made in a series.



well then there is the reason he is better than brown. Another poster wanted to just compare points and call him a brown level player
 

deletethis

Registered User
Mar 17, 2015
7,910
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Toronto
He's definitely overrated for his contributions. People really want a "gritty" LW around here though.

IMO I suspect that Carolina's hit numbers (like their shot numbers) are grossly inflated. They've got close to 8 players listed as having more hits/game than Leafs' leader Hyman.
 
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