Some suprising (and not so suprising) Habs player stats.

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by WakeUpNHL, Feb 20, 2013.

  1. WakeUpNHL

    WakeUpNHL Registered User

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  2. Teufelsdreck

    Teufelsdreck Registered User

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    Some of those stats are hard to interpret, especially in their effect on wins and losses. One thing sticks out: Ryan White has been a liability and without his unfavorable ratio of penalties taken to penalties drawn the Habs' impressive win-loss record would be even better.
     
  3. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake In my opinion.....

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    Nevermind.....got it. Will always believe though that as advance those stats are, it's impossible to take one of them and directly act as if it was the bible and that it says it all about a player.
     
  4. hockeyfan2k11

    hockeyfan2k11 Registered User

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    This... There's nothing more accurate than the eye test.
     
  5. Peter Puck

    Peter Puck Registered User

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    This basically means that these guys have been unlucky.
     
  6. WakeUpNHL

    WakeUpNHL Registered User

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    Most interesting to me is the 5on5 save percentage stats:

    best
    White 1.00 (no goals against scored 5on5!)
    Diaz 0.966 (highest amongst Dman)

    worst
    MaxPac 0.891
    Desharnais 0.886 (horrible defensively)
     
  7. WakeUpNHL

    WakeUpNHL Registered User

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    or maybe they are giving up too many quality chances...
     
  8. FlyingKostitsyn

    FlyingKostitsyn Registered User

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    It mostly means White&Diaz were lucky while MaxPac and Desharnais were not. Don't read to much into it.

    The difference is not notable enough to warrant such a conclusion. Besides who does White and Diaz play against? Who do they play with? How many goals were scored with Desharnais or MaxPac on the ice and were these goals linked in any way with their performances?

    As someone else in this thread said its better to use your eyes than statistics.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2013
  9. Natey

    Natey #koko

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    Lol no... It's unlucky. Last year, we were terrible, and had 2 guys under .900 on the season. Their on-ice sv% will go up.
     
  10. SirClintonPortis

    SirClintonPortis ProudCapitalsTraitor

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    Sheltered minutes are akin to economic bubbles.
     
  11. sharks9

    sharks9 Registered User

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    Top 5 from last year in PDO who played at least 40 games:

    Louis Leblanc
    David Desharnais
    P.K. Subban
    Josh Gorges
    Erik Cole
     
  12. Talks to Goalposts

    Talks to Goalposts Registered User

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    There is probably no element an individual forward has less influence on than the save percentage behind them. Save percentage is typically about team wide systems, goaltender talent and mostly shear random chance than anything else. Over a 14 game sample its likely just random noise and nothing meaningful.

    PDO is about the how sustainable a player's goal differential is. If its high like for Galchenyuk you can expect his goal differential to get less impressive, if its low like for Desharnais you can expect them to improve. None of that should be surprising, if Galchenyuk could maintain a 10 for - 3 against ratio every 14 games he'd be the greatest player in the league by a huge amount while if Desharnais was regularly a 5 goals for and 9 against player in the same time he'd get kicked out of the league very quickly. You can expect a player's PDO to approach 1000 as time goes on because its much more a matter of chance than talent (although very good offensive players can beat the mean by small amounts on shooting percentage and teams with exceptionally good or bad goaltending talent will be effected by that).

    The important thing to know for these kinds of statistics is that small numbers are more about happenstance than talent. Which is why things like shots are more reliable measures of talent in small samples than goals. Goals are more meaningful events but there haven't been enough of them yet for them to have real statistical meaning.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2013
  13. MXD

    MXD Original #4

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    In other words, Desharnais was our better defensive player last year?

    That news to me.

    PDO basically indicates the luck of a player.
     
  14. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias #MolsonLimbo #[email protected] #FireBergevin

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    Ha! Now that's a really good comparison.
     
  15. WakeUpNHL

    WakeUpNHL Registered User

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    Funny how Gomez was the unluckiest player on the habs for the last two seasons!
     
  16. Aspirine

    Aspirine Lateral Move at Best

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    How about Galchenyuk's 7,4% shooting percentage? Isn't that accountable to "bad luck"? It's bound to go up. How come he is still on top of the list if it indicates the "luck" of a player?
     
  17. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    hope others wil create even more stats so I can stop watching games and follow the website to know who's playing well...

    :naughty:
     
  18. Kjell Dahlin

    Kjell Dahlin Registered User

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    From behindthenet.ca: “PDO is the sum of "On-Ice Shooting Percentage" and "On-Ice Save Percentage" while a player was on the ice. It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa.”

    Also, you should take a minute to read Talks to Goalposts’ post (post #12); I do think that sometimes people do put too much emphasis on micro stats but he/she sure knows his stuff!

    So, basically, you underlined the fact that Cole, Desharnais and Pacioretty have been unlucky thus far this season. And we should expect a better production (or better results) from them as the season unfolds.
     
  19. Talks to Goalposts

    Talks to Goalposts Registered User

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    Because Gallagher has been potting them like mad when they are on the ice together and that's inevitably going to cool off, if for no other reason than they are not the reincarnation of Gretzky-Kurri. They've produced at a far faster rate than Stamkos-St. Louis or Sedin-Sedin over a short period of time, regression is inevitable.

    Now Galchenuyk's personal goal scoring rate can be expected to go up based on his 7.4%, but PDO is about 5 on 5 +/-. Essentially, Galchenyuk has been playing better than a 10 goals per 82 games player but not as good as a guy you can expect to go +46 in 82 games.
     
  20. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    pretty much, doesnt mean any more/less than +/-, prety useless stat IMO (as in, there's already something measuring what this stat is), whole lot of work for nothing ;)
     
  21. Talks to Goalposts

    Talks to Goalposts Registered User

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    +/- is useless because its too heavily influenced by randomness and situational factors to be useful. Its also polluted by the stupid way it was constructed, counting PP goals against and PK goals for and also empty net goals.

    But at its heart it measures the most important thing in hockey, whether you scored more than your opponent. Which is what causes your team to win games and is the reason why one team is better than the other. Any effective statistical analysis has to deal with the central fact that more goals than the other team causes wins. So the straight +/- that you can find on NHL.com is pretty useless, how a player influences his team's +/- is the crux of their value.
     
  22. OneSharpMarble

    OneSharpMarble Registered User

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    Look who is #1! Good thing we don't actually play our best passer anymore, much better idea just letting him sit on the bench and improve his trade value there.
     
  23. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    and most stats dont show that, including the ones on the website posted by the op.
     
  24. Talks to Goalposts

    Talks to Goalposts Registered User

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    They do if you look at how they interact. PDO isn't so much about that though, its supposed to be the sanity check you put on someone doing extremely bad or good over a short period time. Where you look to see if a player is beating his opponent say, 57-43 in goals to see if its because his line is playing like an elite unit over that time or if they've just been on an unsustainable hot streak. Or used on a team level, the quick and dirty way to check and see how you knowMinnesota and Toronto weren't actually good teams last year but just pretending for a while and that LA was going to bounce back pretty hard.
     
  25. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    too much emphasis on stats, not enough on watching games.
     

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