Some Draft Stats

[Vaasa]

so literally anything from the 4th round is basically a throw of the dice and hope and pray to god that they make it?

I don't interpret it that way at all. From about 4th on your have around a 5-6% chance of getting a career NHL'er (300+ games). That's not far down from the ~10% chance in the 3rd. And heck, even the 2nd round is only giving you a 15% chance.

Considering you also have about a 8-10% chance of getting a consistent 20+ goal scorer (and that's across their entire career, even their early games) what I'm seeing makes me think people undervalue those picks too much.

Basically, a team has a 1 in 20 chance of pulling a career NHL player from the 4th or later rounds, and if they manage it about 10% chance that they are getting a good quality top-6 forward. It will take me a while probably to get around to doing the team analysis, but I bet some teams have a much better chance than those 1-in-20 or 10%.

Don't forget that even first round picks have on average a 10% failure ratio (0 games played), and about a 30% chance of not being a "career" NHL'er (300+ games).

 

[Vaasa]

You should try Dropbox or something like it. Can't really view it that well on Flickr. Enlarging it puts it in some weird full screen video mode and I can't figure out a way to save it so I could enlarge it myself.

Go to a photo, click escape to exit the lightbox. Right-click, and select "Original". There should be an option to download.

I don't want to set up yet another freaking account on DropBox or somewhere like that if I can avoid it.

 

[Led Zappa]

Go to a photo, click escape to exit the lightbox. Right-click, and select "Original". There should be an option to download.

I don't want to set up yet another freaking account on DropBox or somewhere like that if I can avoid it.

Got it thanks. But Dropbox is pretty cool. Integrates into windows explorer as a regular folder, syncs to cloud. You have private, pictures and shared folders. Then you can share any kind of file or imbed pictures on this forum. Simply right click on a pic in your Explorer Dropbox folder and select "copy public link" and paste into post. Pretty cool.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Got it thanks. But Dropbox is pretty cool. Integrates into windows explorer as a regular folder, syncs to cloud. You have private, pictures and shared folders. Then you can share any kind of file or imbed pictures on this forum. Simply right click on a pic in your Explorer Dropbox folder and select "copy public link" and paste into post. Pretty cool.

Clearly, Led Zappa is a programmer or employee of Dropbox....

 

[Vaasa]

Hi all,

With the draft coming up tomorrow I wanted to re-open this thread since I finally got around to updating my data set and my analytics slightly. Basically, I have the following info and can slice and dice it various ways if you have any questions.

* Every player from the 1995 draft through 2014. I will add 2015 once it's done.
* The year they were drafted in
* The round they were drafted in
* The overall number in the draft they were taken with
* The team that drafted them
* Their name
* Their position

Plus the following career numbers (NOT year by year):
* The number of games they have played
* The number of goals they have scored
* The number of assists they have
* The number of points they have
* The number of PIM they have
* Their average goals per game
* Their average points per game
* Their average PIM per game

So, want to know which teams have the highest number of draft picks to play 100+ games? With a bit of work, I can find it. Want to know how many defenseman taken in the top 15 picks have averaged .5 points per game or higher, I already posted it.

Just an offer in case anyone has any questions that might be worth discussing.

NOTE: The data is basically a manually copied version of part of the HockeyDB basic data set. I will NOT share the raw data since it belongs to them. If you want it, you can go through the effort of manually copying it yourself.

 

[Led Zappa]

Due to a thread on the on the Main board and just for fun I made a table for all Sharks draft picks after the 1rst round who played at least a single game in the NHL from 2000-2012. Averages are at the bottom.

I will probably do more years just for fun. I'll make it a new post just to keep it all together.

Draft|Num.|Round|Player|Pos|GP|G|A|Pts
2012 |55|2|Chris Tierney|C|43|6|15|21
2011 |47|2|Matthew Nieto|L|138|20|31|51
2010 |129|5|Freddie Hamilton|C|29|1|0|1
2009 |147|5|Philip Varone|C|37|4|3|7
2008 |177|6|Tommy Wingels|C|232|39|57|96
2008 |186|7|Jason Demers|D|361|21|99|120
2007 |83|3|Timo Pielmeier|G|1|0|0|0
2007 |173|6|Nick Bonino|C|264|48|73|121
2007 |201|7|Justin Braun|D|287|9|60|69
2007 |203|7|Frazer McLaren|L|102|4|7|11
2006 |36|2|Jamie McGinn|L|366|69|59|128
2006 |202|7|John McCarthy|L|87|3|3|6
2005 |35|2|Marc-Edouard Vlasic|D|670|39|148|187
2005 |112|4|Alex Stalock|G|49|0|0|0
2005 |149|5|Derek Joslin|D|116|4|12|16
2004 |94|3|Thomas Greiss|G|89|0|0|0
2004 |126|4|Torrey Mitchell|C|457|42|63|105
2004 |153|5|Steven Zalewski|C|10|0|0|0
2004 |201|7|Mike Vernace|D|22|0|1|1
2003 |43|2|Josh Hennessy|C|23|1|0|1
2003 |47|2|Matt Carle|D|660|43|230|273
2003 |205|7|Joe Pavelski|C|643|228|257|485
2002 |139|5|Kris Newbury|C|76|4|6|10
2002 |217|7|Tim Conboy|R|59|0|6|6
2001 |106|4|Christian Ehrhoff|D|741|72|255|327
2001 |107|4|Dmitri Patzold|G|3|0|0|0
2001 |140|5|Tomas Plihal|L|89|7|9|16
2001 |175|6|Ryane Clowe|L|491|112|197|309
2001 |182|6|Tom Cavanagh|C|18|1|2|3
2000 |104|4|Jon DiSalvatore|L|6|0|0|0
2000 |166|5|Nolan Schaefer|G|7|0|0|0
2000 |246|8|Chad Wiseman|L|9|1|1|2

1999 |155|5|Niko Dimitrakos|C|158|24|38|62
1999 |241|8|Douglas Murray|D|518|7|57|64
1999 |257|9|Hannes Hyvonen|R|42|4|5|9
1998 |29|2|Jonathan Cheechoo|R|501|170|135|305
1998 |98|4|Rob Davison|D|219|3|15|18
1998 |104|4|Miroslav Zalesak|C|12|1|2|3
1998 |145|5|Mikael Samuelsson|R|699|149|197|346
1998 |212|8|Jim Fahey|D|92|1|24|25
1997 |192|8|Cam Severson|L|37|3|0|3
1997 |219|9|Mark Smith|C|377|23|47|70
1996 |102|4|Matt Bradley|R|675|59|90|149
1996 |137|6|Michel Larocque|G|3|0|0|0
1995 |90|4|Vesa Toskala|G|266|0|10|10
1995 |116|5|Miikka Kiprusoff|G|624|0|10|10
1995 |194|8|Ryan Kraft|L|7|0|1|1
1994 |66|3|Alexei Yegorov|R|11|3|3|6
1994 |89|4|Vaclav Varada|L|493|58|125|183
1994 |115|5|Brian Swanson|C|70|4|13|17
1994 |141|6|Alexander Korolyuk|R|296|62|80|142
1994 |219|9|Evgeni Nabokov|G|697|1|15|16
1993 |28|2|Shean Donovan|R|951|112|129|241
1993 |45|2|Vlastimil Kroupa|D|105|4|19|23
1993 |58|3|Ville Peltonen|W|382|52|96|148|
1993 |132|6|Petri Varis|L|1|0|0|0
1992 |75|4|Jan Caloun|R|24|8|6|14
1992 |99|5|Marcus Ragnarsson|D|632|37|140|177
1992 |123|6|Michal Sykora|D|267|15|54|69
1992 |243|11|Victor Ignatjev|D|11|0|1|1
1991 |23|2|Ray Whitney|L|1330|385|679|1064
1991 |30|2|Sandis Ozolinsh|D|875|167|397|564
1991 |45|3|Dody Wood|L|106|8|10|18
1991 |133|7|Jaroslav Otevrel|L|16|3|4|7
1991 |199|10|Dale Craigwell|C|98|11|18|29
1991 |243|12|Mikhail Kravets|R|2|0|0|0
|
|Pick|RD|Total Players||GP|G|A|PTS
Average|133|5.2|66||254|32.6|61|93|
|
Centers|16
Wings|25
Defensemen|15
Goalies|9

Where ya been Vaasa?

 

[Led Zappa]

Table above updated with numbers from 1991-2013.

Next I'll do all players with over 80 games just to see the averages of GP etc... I'll make a new post for that.

 

[Led Zappa]

Sharks draft picks outside 1rst round with more than 80 games played. Points averages are with the goalies removed.

Draft|Num.|Round|Player|Pos|GP|G|A|Pts
2011 |47|2|Matthew Nieto|L|138|20|31|51
2008 |177|6|Tommy Wingels|C|232|39|57|96
2008 |186|7|Jason Demers|D|361|21|99|120
2007 |173|6|Nick Bonino|C|264|48|73|121
2007 |203|7|Frazer McLaren|L|102|4|7|11
2007 |201|7|Justin Braun|D|287|9|60|69
2006 |36|2|Jamie McGinn|L|366|69|59|128
2006 |202|7|John McCarthy|L|87|3|3|6
2005 |35|2|Marc-Edouard Vlasic|D|670|39|148|187
2005 |149|5|Derek Joslin|D|116|4|12|16
2004 |94|3|Thomas Greiss|G|89|0|0|0
2004 |126|4|Torrey Mitchell|C|457|42|63|105
2003 |47|2|Matt Carle|D|660|43|230|273
2003 |205|7|Joe Pavelski|C|643|228|257|485
2001 |106|4|Christian Ehrhoff|D|741|72|255|327
2001 |140|5|Tomas Plihal|L|89|7|9|16
2001 |175|6|Ryane Clowe|L|491|112|197|309
1999 |155|5|Niko Dimitrakos|C|158|24|38|62
1999 |241|8|Douglas Murray|D|518|7|57|64
1998 |29|2|Jonathan Cheechoo|R|501|170|135|305
1998 |98|4|Rob Davison|D|219|3|15|18
1998 |145|5|Mikael Samuelsson|R|699|149|197|346
1998 |212|8|Jim Fahey|D|92|1|24|25
1997 |219|9|Mark Smith|C|377|23|47|70
1996 |102|4|Matt Bradley|R|675|59|90|149
1995 |90|4|Vesa Toskala|G|266|0|10|10
1995 |116|5|Miikka Kiprusoff|G|624|0|10|10
1994 |89|4|Vaclav Varada|L|493|58|125|183
1994 |141|6|Alexander Korolyuk|R|296|62|80|142
1994 |219|9|Evgeni Nabokov|G|697|1|15|16
1993 |45|2|Vlastimil Kroupa|D|105|4|19|23
1993 |28|2|Shean Donovan|R|951|112|129|241
1993 |58|3|Ville Peltonen|W|382|52|96|148
1992 |99|5|Marcus Ragnarsson|D|632|37|140|177
1992 |123|6|Michal Sykora|D|267|15|54|69
1991 |30|2|Sandis Ozolinsh|D|875|167|397|564
1991 |23|2|Ray Whitney|L|1330|385|679|1064
1991 |45|3|Dody Wood|L|106|8|10|18
1991 |199|10|Dale Craigwell|C|98|11|18|29
|
|Pick|RD|||GP|G|A|PTS
Average|123|4.8|||414|60|118|172|
|
Centers|7
Wings|15
Defensemen|13
Goalies|4
Total Players|39

 

[Led Zappa]

Here is our all time success rate in 80 and 200 plus games played.

Round|Picks|>80 GP|Success %|>200 GP|Success %
Round 1|26|18|69.23%|15|57.69%
Round 2|21|9|42.86%|7|33.33%
Round 3|18|3|16.67%|1|5.56%
Round 4|23|6|26.09%|6|26.09%
Round 5|33|6|18.18%|3|9.09%
Round 6|22|5|22.73%|5|22.73%
Round 7|31|5|16.13%|3|9.68%
Round 8|14|2|14.29%|1|7.14%
Round 9|13|2|15.38%|2|15.38%
Round 10|5|1|20.00%|0|0.00%
Round 11|4|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
Round 12|1|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
|
All Rounds|211|58|27.49%|43|20.38%

 

[Led Zappa]

Percentages look a little better when subtracting 2012-2015 since those players haven't had time to play much less get to 80GP.

Round|Picks|>80 GP|Success %|>200 GP|Success %
Round 1|23|18|78.26%|15|65.22%
Round 2|17|9|52.94%|7|41.18%
Round 3|15|3|20.00%|1|6.67%
Round 4|20|6|30.00%|6|30.00%
Round 5|28|6|21.43%|3|10.71%
Round 6|20|5|25.00%|5|25.00%
Round 7|27|5|18.52%|3|11.11%
Round 8|14|2|14.29%|1|7.14%
Round 9|13|2|15.38%|2|15.38%
Round 10|5|1|20.00%|0|0.00%
Round 11|4|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
Round 12|1|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
|
All Rounds|187|58|31.02%|43|22.99%

 

[Led Zappa]

And the Wings from 1991-2012. Amazingly lower percentage payoff than the Sharks, but obviously some huge picks in that time frame.

Round|Picks|>80 GP|Success %|>200 GP|Success %
Round 1|12|8|66.67%|5|41.67%
Round 2|25|14|56.00%|9|36.00%
Round 3|18|5|27.78%|3|16.67%
Round 4|22|5|22.73%|2|9.09%
Round 5|26|1|3.85%|1|3.85%
Round 6|25|1|4.00%|1|4.00%
Round 7|21|2|9.52%|1|4.76%
Round 8|15|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
Round 9|14|1|7.14%|1|7.14%
Round 10|4|2|50.00%|2|50.00%
Round 11|4|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
Round 12|1|0|0.00%|0|0.00%
|
All Rounds|187|37|19.79%|25|13.37%

 

[Led Zappa]

And the Wings over 80 games played list outside of the first round.

Draft|Num.|Round|Player|Pos|GP|G|A|Pts
2011 |35|2|Tomas Jurco|R|99|11|22|33
2010 |51|2|Calle Jarnkrok|C|86|9|18|27
2009 |60|2|Tomas Tatar|L|182|53|50|103
2008 |121|4|Gustav Nyquist|R|179|59|56|115
2007 |88|3|Joakim Andersson|C|176|14|19|33
2006 |47|2|Shawn Matthias|C|408|69|62|131
2006 |41|2|Cory Emmerton|L|139|12|9|21
2005 |42|2|Justin Abdelkader|L|398|61|71|132
2005 |132|5|Darren Helm|C|366|59|77|136
2004 |97|3|Johan Franzen|R|600|187|182|369
2003 |64|2|Jim Howard|G|338|0|6|6
2003 |132|4|Kyle Quincey|D|448|26|103|129
2002 |58|2|Jiri Hudler|C|604|145|226|371
2002 |63|2|Tomas Fleischmann|L|581|123|187|310
2002 |95|3|Valtteri Filppula|C|640|137|220|357
2002 |229|7|Derek Meech|D|144|4|13|17
2002 |291|9|Jonathan Ericsson|D|407|17|66|83
2000 |38|2|Tomas Kopecky|R|578|68|106|174
1999 |210|7|Henrik Zetterberg|L|836|296|490|786
1998 |171|6|Pavel Datsyuk|C|887|298|571|869
1997 |49|2|Yuri Butsayev|L|99|10|4|14
1994 |49|2|Mathieu Dandenault|R|868|68|135|203
1994 |257|10|Tomas Holmstrom|L|1026|243|287|530
1993 |97|4|John Jakopin|D|113|1|6|7
1992 |46|2|Darren McCarty|R|758|127|161|288
1992 |238|10|Dan McGillis|D|634|56|182|238
1991 |32|2|Jamie Pushor|D|521|14|46|60
1991 |54|3|Chris Osgood|G|744|1|19|20
1991 |76|4|Mike Knuble|R|1068|278|270|548
|
|Pick|Round|||GP|G|A|PTS
Average|102|3.8|||480|84|126|211
|
Centers|7
Wings|14
Defensemen|6
Goalies|2
Total Pics|29

 

[Barrie22]

The wings i know are the obvious choice for draft success, but using them with a games played data form is kind of a bad thing. The wings are one of the best teams at not rushing players. Lots of there draft choices don't even get there 1st game in the nhl until year 3 or 4.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think it comes down to personal preference. I will take a Joe Pavelski over 10 Torrey Mitchells. I would take a PK Subban or Shea Weber over a few Joe Pavelskis.

I would argue, subjectively, that the Sharks are one of the best drafting teams late in the draft, very good in the middle of the draft, and so-so in the first round. That is a good record, but imagine flipping it. If the Sharks were exceptional in the first, they would be a dynasty...

 

[stator]

That is a good record, but imagine flipping it. If the Sharks were exceptional in the first, they would be a dynasty...

I would believe that having exceptional first round drafting abilities would mean having last round seasonal performance and standing issues. Besides, consider the Oilers' past.