So has Ovechkin's potential been downgraded?

[Vlad The Impaler]

He could put on the brakes next year and be outshone by the "next" 16 year old but you would have to be seriously pessimistic to expect that to happen.

Just to make it clear, I'm not saying someone else will necessarly "outshine" him.

But the pattern around here has ALWAYS been the same. People will nitpick him and will set their sights on younger players if there is one around the corner. They always do. It's part of the unealthy process that takes place around here, due to lack of understanding of scouting, progression as well as a patented inability to properly assess talent.

A lot of the players who are nitpicked are still the "real deal" as far as I am concerned. The amount of hype Crosby will get or not get, the amount of criticism he will get or not get, has absolutely nothing to do with what he will ultimately become. The sad process I have described has nothing to do with an assessment of what Crosby will become and is simply an observation on the way things happen in the "hype community".

We're what? 4 or 5 months away from the draft? Then, as soon as the 2004 draft is over, you will see people focus firmly on Crosby while at the same time they'll start digging deeper for the 06s and 07s.

 

[Boondock Saint]

Just to make it clear, I'm not saying someone else will necessarly "outshine" him.

But the pattern around here has ALWAYS been the same. People will nitpick him and will set their sights on younger players if there is one around the corner. They always do. It's part of the unealthy process that takes place around here, due to lack of understanding of scouting, progression as well as a patented inability to properly assess talent.

A lot of the players who are nitpicked are still the "real deal" as far as I am concerned. The amount of hype Crosby will get or not get, the amount of criticism he will get or not get, has absolutely nothing to do with what he will ultimately become. The sad process I have described has nothing to do with an assessment of what Crosby will become and is simply an observation on the way things happen in the "hype community".

We're what? 4 or 5 months away from the draft? Then, as soon as the 2004 draft is over, you will see people focus firmly on Crosby while at the same time they'll start digging deeper for the 06s and 07s.

I agree completely. Although it's not the fault of the majority around here, as very few of us have the time or resources to properly assess the draft eligible talent first-hand. (except for X-sharkie of course )

There's always 'experts' who might have seen a guy once, or read a Woodlief article and come to post their thoughts here, and a lot of posters take it for gospel.

I trust very few on these boards as far as scouting reports go, as more posters should. Anyone can come on these boards on post nonsense and a lot of posters have a fairly limited background in hockey. (not that having a limited hockey background makes you a poor poster, but scouting might not be your forte right off the gun.)

 

[StanleyCH25]

Just to make it clear, I'm not saying someone else will necessarly "outshine" him.

But the pattern around here has ALWAYS been the same. People will nitpick him and will set their sights on younger players if there is one around the corner. They always do. It's part of the unealthy process that takes place around here, due to lack of understanding of scouting, progression as well as a patented inability to properly assess talent.

A lot of the players who are nitpicked are still the "real deal" as far as I am concerned. The amount of hype Crosby will get or not get, the amount of criticism he will get or not get, has absolutely nothing to do with what he will ultimately become. The sad process I have described has nothing to do with an assessment of what Crosby will become and is simply an observation on the way things happen in the "hype community".

We're what? 4 or 5 months away from the draft? Then, as soon as the 2004 draft is over, you will see people focus firmly on Crosby while at the same time they'll start digging deeper for the 06s and 07s.

Something tells me this is more about finding the next treasure than it is about admiring the current one. I see it happen in all aspects of this world. Who will be the next big movie star.. the next big pop star.. It's like a drug that keeps you thinking you're ahead of the pack by knowing the people who aren't there yet but will more than likely be in the next few years.

Anyhow.. that's just my opinion.

 

[Bobby Orr's Knees]

If the caps get ovechkin and he turns into a Mats Sundin type player, I will be thrilled.

I don't think there is anything wrong with being a Mats Sundin, or a Sergei Fedorov, or a Nolan. But this guy was thought to be a better version of Kovalchuk. That's a different story.

I was suspicious of all these glowing reports about his amazing skills, maturity, domination, etc. I am not saying they weren't true - I am saying I am skeptical. After seing him live, I don't expect him to generate nearly as much excitement as Mario, Lindros and Kovalchuk have in their early NHL years.

 

[West]

I don't think there is anything wrong with being a Mats Sundin, or a Sergei Fedorov, or a Nolan. But this guy was thought to be a better version of Kovalchuk. That's a different story.

I was suspicious of all these glowing reports about his amazing skills, maturity, domination, etc. I am not saying they weren't true - I am saying I am skeptical. After seing him live, I don't expect him to generate nearly as much excitement as Mario, Lindros and Kovalchuk have in their early NHL years.

I think alot of talk like that is based in the idea that most players improve greatly in the 16 to 18 range. He's improved just not as much as some people hoped.

It will be the same thing with Crosby everyone looks at him and thinks given what he's done this year he could but up 200 pts next year and you could reasonably start comparing his junior career to that of Gretzky and Lemieux. He could also realistically top out at about 150 in which case most people will realize that the comparison is a bit of a strech. Either way he'll be a good player but only time will really tell how good.

 

[stardog]

Hehe, I am by no means a Russian hater. My favorite player in the NHL is Sergei Fedorov and I am a big fan of numerous others. One thing that does enerve me though are attitude problems. I like players who put up and shut up (i.e. Fedorov, Nash, etc...) Ovechkin was always good with the fans here, but I guess what really soured me was the the FanFest with the dramatic incident with Fleury. He did a lot of talking here, and really did nothing in the playoffs to back himself up... but kept talking. This year I have to commend him on admitting to his subpar play, but his poor performances don't help his projections either.

I'll even admit to the fact most young players tend to have egos. When I was 16 I thought I was hot stuff too. It's just my personal experience with the guy have left me soured on him. I found him childish and I don't think he's the best prospect to go first overall in awhile and he's had difficulty being consistent (or even noteworthy at times) in each WJC tournament he has participated in. The only forwards in the past 10 years I would rate his potential ahead of that have gone first overall are Stefan and Daigle. And I am judging them on their NHL performance, not their potential when they were picked.

Again... great skills, rough adjustment... but not Rick Nash, Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, or Vincent Lecavalier... even though he's probably going to be closest to Lecavalier.

Are you serious? You probably have seen him play more than I have but the hype machine has been on him for years and from what I have heard, his "potential" has been head and shoulders above these other guys up until just very recently.

He has been under intense scrutiny for so damn long that I think people are searching for ways to just pick apart his game.

I mean just look at the last two drafts. Everywhere you turned you would find reports stating that:
A) Had Ovechkin been in this draft, he would have gone first overall
B) This was a good draft in top end talent but the REAL gem is coming in the 2004 draft.

I have read those statements quite a few times from various sources, so to say that his potential is only ahead of Daigle and Stefan is completely false IMO.

In fact, Daigle's potential at the time of his draft was alot higher than many of the other players in the last ten years as well.

 

[thedjpd]

Are you serious? You probably have seen him play more than I have but the hype machine has been on him for years and from what I have heard, his "potential" has been head and shoulders above these other guys up until just very recently.

He has been under intense scrutiny for so damn long that I think people are searching for ways to just pick apart his game.

I mean just look at the last two drafts. Everywhere you turned you would find reports stating that:
A) Had Ovechkin been in this draft, he would have gone first overall
B) This was a good draft in top end talent but the REAL gem is coming in the 2004 draft.

I have read those statements quite a few times from various sources, so to say that his potential is only ahead of Daigle and Stefan is completely false IMO.

In fact, Daigle's potential at the time of his draft was alot higher than many of the other players in the last ten years as well.

According to hype, his potential was NEVER "head and shoulders" above those guys. People may have claimed he had more potential, but not nearly as big of a margin as you implied. I think it's moot, however, as I would foresee him as lucky to be nearly as good as any of those aforementioned players.

EDIT: Let me rephrase, not lucky, but fortunate.

 

[Sundried TOmato]

Re: Bobby Orr's comments.

I don't know about Ovechkin's excitement factor. He is more of a solid player like Sundin, Yashin and Modano than a super-exciting player like Gretzky or Kovy.

Re: skills
Ovechkin at 17 was a much better player than Daige, LeCavalier, Thornton and Nash were at his age. The thing is, is he going to be a better player at 25? Personally, I doubt he'll be as good as Thornton. I would expect him to have a better career than Lecavalier and Nash - because he can do so many things really well.

Bottom line: it's all speculation. He may come in and tear up the league. Or... he may be a second coming of Vinny Lecavalier - a really good player but not a superstar.

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

Bottom line: it's all speculation. He may come in and tear up the league. Or... he may be a second coming of Vinny Lecavalier - a really good player but not a superstar.

Let's not forget that Lecavalier is 23 years old. He still has plenty of time to learn, improve and change. He could turn it around easily. In fact, last year that's what he was in the process of doing, so we know he CAN do it.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

One of the questions he was given was: How do you compare yourself with Ilya Kovalchuk, your characters and your skills?

"I like Kovalchuk very much", said Aleksander of the fellow Russian who made a similar impact as Ovechkin on the world junior scene two years ago and who became the first Russian player to be drafted first overall at the 2001 NHL Entry Draft. "I think our characters are very similar, but skill wise I want to be better than Ilya".

interesting

 

[stardog]

According to hype, his potential was NEVER "head and shoulders" above those guys. People may have claimed he had more potential, but not nearly as big of a margin as you implied. I think it's moot, however, as I would foresee him as lucky to be nearly as good as any of those aforementioned players.

EDIT: Let me rephrase, not lucky, but fortunate.

I dont know about that. Lecavalier got alot of hype for almost the same amount of time, and Daigle was seen as a saviour of sorts as well. But from my recolection, the hype that they recieved, clearly wasn't the same as what Ovechkin got during the same time frame.
Ovechkin, until maybe this year was always seen as the next great one. He was said to be far and away the best prospect to come along in years, which is why that his name was always mentioned in the past two draft reviews (in a "just wait until 2004" kind of way).
At any rate, it is a pointless argument, as what may be "head and shoulders" to you, could not be the same to me, or to others. By head and shoulders I meant, clearly better than the others, and not twice as good as them, or a gift to the hockey world by God.
According to the hype I read,(until recently, as I have noted) he WAS in fact, considered better than any prospect in awhile by a good margin. How you or I determine what a good margin is, obviously is subjective and therefor can't be debated with any accuracy.

So yeah, I guess to answer the original question of the thread, Ovechkin's potential has been somewhat downgraded, as he is not seen in the same light as he was one year ago.
And despite what Crosbyfan says, Sid will go through the same process starting next season. People are going to start downgrading him for whatev er reason. It doesn't make it right, it just is what inverably happens, as Vlad pointed out.

 

[Crosbyfan]

And despite what Crosbyfan says, Sid will go through the same process starting next season. People are going to start downgrading him for whatev er reason. It doesn't make it right, it just is what inverably happens, as Vlad pointed out.

This will happen when (not if) Sid "plateaus" or stops improving at such a rapid pace. This will probably happen closer to 18 (as it did for Ovechkin who I think will do fine) than 17. Not that you/Vlad aren't right, or may turn out to be right, just that IMO you're expecting it to happen to early. If you're right then Sid is a "very" early bloomer.

 

[Vincent_TheGreat]

With Ovechkin's recent slump...What do you all think the ceiling is for this kid? Is he still a potential mega-star? Or do you think he will merely be a good first line forward?

No stats mean little!

 

[Gumby]

This will happen when (not if) Sid "plateaus" or stops improving at such a rapid pace. This will probably happen closer to 18 (as it did for Ovechkin who I think will do fine) than 17. Not that you/Vlad aren't right, or may turn out to be right, just that IMO you're expecting it to happen to early. If you're right then Sid is a "very" early bloomer.

It happens to everybody that comes along with a big talent....in every sport. A kid gets ssooo much praise for so long that everythings eventually been said, thus they start nit-picking at anything they can think of to fill space. Once the draft gets closer for him people will also look for any chink just so that by some chance he does fall on his face they can say "told ya so". Happens every time.

 

[Foppa_Rules]

I think Ovechkin's status is still the same as it was before the tournament--remember, his team had poor goaltending, poor defense, and poor work ethic, so he did well under the circumstances. 5 goals is not bad at all playing wih Pestunov and Shkotov. He almost certainly would have gotten more had he been playing with Malkin and Semen. He didn't do bad.

 

[pittengineer]

Its hard to compare Crosby and Ovechkin. Ovechkin plays in a defensive league which is considered to be the 2nd best league in the world. Some players in Super League are in there prime(26-29) compared to Ovechkin(16-18). Crosby is playing in the more offensive CHL. While he is only 16-17, he is not playing against players in their prime. More likely, the older players in the CHL are at best in their early 20's. Not taking anything away from Crosby, but its hard to compare the two.

 

[russianrocket24]

I have been to Moscow two weeks ago and attended to the Dynamo-Neftekhimik game which was won by Dynamo 4-2. Ovechkin played in the 3rd line and scored the second Dynamo goal with a beautiful slapshot from the blueline. He really made some great moves and his talent was visible. After the game I was able to get to the players area. A friend of mine told Ovechkin that I came from Germany and if it's possible to get a picture. Alex was quite nice and came after a few tv interviews to me, said some words like "Oh, from Germany. Nice to meet you...." He signed a jersey for me and my friend shot a picture of us. If you are interested you can find the picture on my homepage www.russianrocket.de in the "CCCP Picture" area.

 

[Zoo]

I have been to Moscow two weeks ago and attended to the Dynamo-Neftekhimik game which was won by Dynamo 4-2. Ovechkin played in the 3rd line and scored the second Dynamo goal with a beautiful slapshot from the blueline. He really made some great moves and his talent was visible. After the game I was able to get to the players area. A friend of mine told Ovechkin that I came from Germany and if it's possible to get a picture. Alex was quite nice and came after a few tv interviews to me, said some words like "Oh, from Germany. Nice to meet you...." He signed a jersey for me and my friend shot a picture of us. If you are interested you can find the picture on my homepage www.russianrocket.de in the "CCCP Picture" area.

Hey I like the site...cool

Here I have a good pick of the russian 5 for you to use on your site.

 

[russianrocket24]

Thanks for the pic Alf11, I will add it soon to the page.

 

[Zine]

I have been to Moscow two weeks ago and attended to the Dynamo-Neftekhimik game which was won by Dynamo 4-2. Ovechkin played in the 3rd line and scored the second Dynamo goal with a beautiful slapshot from the blueline. He really made some great moves and his talent was visible. After the game I was able to get to the players area. A friend of mine told Ovechkin that I came from Germany and if it's possible to get a picture. Alex was quite nice and came after a few tv interviews to me, said some words like "Oh, from Germany. Nice to meet you...." He signed a jersey for me and my friend shot a picture of us. If you are interested you can find the picture on my homepage www.russianrocket.de in the "CCCP Picture" area.

Nice Ovechkin pic!!!!

He sure does look pretty tired though.

 

[Foppa_Rules]

He should look tired. He just played a game. If he wasn't tired then he either didn't get much ice time or wasn't working hard. Thatx for the pic RussianRocket!!

 

[Fiji Water]

Hey Zine...the Stone Roses Rule!!! Best album of all time!! Too bad not many americans know about them.

 

[bleedgreen]

Hey Zine...the Stone Roses Rule!!! Best album of all time!! Too bad not many americans know about them.

old guys like me do. awesome first album.

 

[Marshall]

old guys like me do. awesome first album.

One of my faves. And the story of the Roses 'repainting' Silvertone's office is classic.

 

[Fiji Water]

"I am the resurrection and I am the life".....classic! Hopefully Ovechkin will one day be able to live up to that lyric.