Skewed hockey card value. What SHOULD they be worth?

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by tjcurrie, Sep 29, 2013.

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  1. tjcurrie

    tjcurrie Registered User

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    Not sure if this is the proper forum, but here goes.

    As the season approaches, I sit here reminiscing about my childhood and the hockey card craze of the early 1990s. So many amazing rookie cards: Modano; Lidstrom; Brodeur; Lindros; Sakic; Belfour; Selanne; Forsberg; Hasek; Fedorov; Jagr; and on and on and on.

    I find it unfortunate that the market became over-saturated beginning in 1989 (Sakic's rookie card year) and then just exploded the year after with brand after brand getting in on the action. Now you have HOFers with rookie cards worth anywhere from $1-$10 or so. And now because of the way they do it, you have for example Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - who has played just 102 NHL games - with an Upper Deck YG rookie that sells for around $100. Really?

    A buddy and I were trying to come up with proper values of each player's rookie card, based on the market value of cards from years prior.

    I know not everyone here collects (I don't really anymore though I'm kind of being sucked back in a bit), but for those that do or have I thought this may be interesting.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  2. Analyzer*

    Analyzer* Guest

    The values are based on how common the card is and how popular the player is.

    Even now, if you get a Subban non rookie jersey and sig card it's worth more and more sought after than a Lidstrom jersey and sig card.

    If everyone and their dog has 10 Sundin rookies, but only 1 in 10 have a RNH rookie, it's obvious which will be worth more.

    However, I gotta say Belfour's pro set rookie card is one of the coolest I've seen. I was ready to pay big money for it, until I realized it's worthless.
     
  3. tjcurrie

    tjcurrie Registered User

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    No no! The Belfour is pretty valuable! I'll sell you 3 for only $20! Heck of a deal :naughty:

    Yeah in all seriousness I realize how the values are determined. I myself have about 50 Modano Upper Deck RCs and the total value is probably about $100.

    But going by what players rookie cards of the past are worth, I would estimate that it SHOULD be worth around $40-$50.

    Take a player like Luc Robitaille. His rookie card is 25-26 years old and worth about $40 I believe. Then you have Teemu Selanne, whose RC is 21-22 years old and worth what, a tenth of that? Less?

    So I'm wanting to know what value collectors would place on all the players whose RCs either fell off the map due to ridiculous over-production, or RCs nowadays, compared to how the market was prior to say 1990 when the hobby changed.

    If Yzerman's RC is worth $100, Sakic's, Forsberg's, Lindros's and Modano's RCs should be worth.....

    If Roy's RC is worth $100, Belfour's Hasek's and Brodeur's RCs should be worth....

    If Bourque's RC is worth $100, Lidstrom's Pronger's Niedermayer's or Zubov's RCs should be worth....

    etc etc
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  4. Hobnobs

    Hobnobs Pinko

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    As with all collectables, the value is what the collector is willing to pay. Don't pay attention to what magazines and card dealers value them at. If you have a semi-rare card and its value is 30 bucks you can still find a collector who is willing to spend 100-whatever dollars on it.
     
  5. Ohashi_Jouzu*

    Ohashi_Jouzu* Registered User

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    My collecting ended with Upper Deck and OPC Premier back in the early '90s. Have all my Roenick, Sakic, Forsberg, Fedorov, Jagr rookies, etc, and I'm good with that. Card collecting just got stupid from there, and I haven't cared about players across the league on an individual level as much ever since anyway. Just wish I hadn't learned how to pitch cards at targets lined up on the baseboard radiators at home, because a lot of my '70s/80s cards bit the dust like that (for the longest time, until the corners couldn't be bent back out for true flight, Lafleur's rookie - from my father's set - was my "golden arrow", lol... guess I probably still owe dad some money for that one). I still have Mahovlich and Richard (H.) cards from the same time that would have been better options in hindsight...
     
  6. Pominville Knows

    Pominville Knows Registered User

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    If every player had an equal amount of rookie cards on the market then value would be after how good and popular the player was, with the very best players getting some considerable premium as well since everybody wants to collect Gretzky and Lemieux and not Yzerman and Sakic.
    Those very best/popular players are Lemieux, Gretzky, Howe, Roy, Richard, Orr, maybe someone more, but then its a drop down to the rest like Yzerman, Jagr Crosby and Lafleur. Defensemen are generally not as expensive as forwards,no matter how good they where.
     
  7. tjcurrie

    tjcurrie Registered User

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    Jeez. Talk about hindsight hey? If you were my kid I'd be whooping your arse to this day! :laugh:

    I feel the same way though. I stopped just after those days, say around 1994. And I havent much cared for other players after that class individually since.

    I am however beginning to want some of the RCs from current stars like Tavares, Seguin, Towes, etc etc just to add to my RC collection. I have about every player from about 1980 to 1992 or so. Missing Carbonneau and Macinnis of note.

    I just thought it would be interesting for collectors to tryn figure out what these players cards would be worth based on not mass-production but based on if the hobby and market remained consistent. I hate the fact that all those great players from 89, 90, 91, 92, etc have RCs worth a small % of what they otherwise would and should be.
     
  8. Ohashi_Jouzu*

    Ohashi_Jouzu* Registered User

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    You should see the state of my Darryl Sittler rookie card, which was always the main target of the Lafleur shot, lol, or the Gordie Howe "Mr. Hockey" card I had taped to my bed. Dad should never have given me his cards before I developed "proper" collecting habits. :)

    For a few years I tried to do the same thing, collecting just rookie cards of players I liked, or that I thought might be among the few biggest stars down the road, or that I thought I could get signed, or whatever. There's just no value in it anymore, especially since I can get all those stats from the back (and random tidbits like nicknames, or interesting facts, etc) via the internet now.
     
  9. kmad

    kmad riot survivor

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    Pavel Bure rookie card was worth $30 when I saved up to buy it with paper route money. I took a look at a Beckett the other week and saw it's now worth something like $9. Still the most expensive card in the set, but damn.
     
  10. Porn*

    Porn* Registered User

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    I remember when I was younger, a Roy RC was worth 250... now it's 100? how does that make sense...

    i'll keep my cards, just because... i like them. **** these absurd values and deflated markets. It's something i'll pass on to my kids (if i have any)

    actually found one of my cards the other day loosely rolling around, great condition as its in a hardloader but it was a gilmour card with the face of dave gagner instead Hhahaha... once of my favs.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  11. MS

    MS 1%er

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    Such a ruined hobby. It's a shame.

    It was great until the early 1990s when all of a sudden there were like 10 brands on the market, competing to get rookie cards onto the market earlier and earlier.

    Then with the introduction of the 'rare' cards that you couldn't get, it just got stupid. Dumbest thing of all are the 'jersey cards', where they chop up a legitimately awesome item - a game-worn NHL jersey - into little chunks of crap they stick into a card.

    Still have boxes of cards from the '80s - generally tried to keep a 'good' copy of the O-Pee-Chee set (thanks, dad, for suggesting that as a good idea!) and used the doubles to throw at walls.
     
  12. tjcurrie

    tjcurrie Registered User

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    That's exactly it. I remember back then when a Bossy RC was about 14 years old and worth around $70 or something like that. I would expect a Bure RC to be worth about the same today. Brutal that it's hovering around $9. I got one back in the day and actually bought about 3 boxes of that year recently and now I think I have 4.

    I'm not sure if it's worth $100, I just threw that out there.

    I'd like to see that "Gilmour" card too!
     
  13. Big Phil

    Big Phil Registered User

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    Sadly, I have sold most of my hockey cards. You know, the best thing any person could have done was sell their entire hockey card collection in 1995. True story. Now, people would have thought you to be a fool at that time because the cards from the early 1990s hadn't skyrocketed like the 1980s cards because we assumed they just weren't old enough yet. I guess you can blame Upper Deck for this. The 1990-'91 set has a lot of great rookies in it that, based on projection, should have been worth a ton by now. But they made too many of them. Throughout the 1990s you just assumed the hobby was still going to be popular so you kept buying.

    The only stuff anyone will look at would be 1980s or prior. Come up to a dealer with a Lindros rookie card and he'll give you 5 cents (slight exaggeration).

    I still go to the memorabilia shows in Toronto, but not with the intention of buying cards. For years the old cards were stagnant in value before finally dropping like a stone as we see today.

    There was a time when you honestly could have had a great card set and set it aside for a decent inheritance for your children. But now?
     
  14. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    exactly.

    I have to surmise it's that it was never really worth $250.

    ebay probably hurt the market too. Suddenly there's a global marketplace people can sell their cards on, so at the same time, 20 people around the world are all going "my Steve Yzerman rookie is worth $200? I'll sell it on ebay!" and there are 20 there all at once and since you don't know the seller and can't inspect the card, the amount you're willing to pay drops instantly, and the fact that the market's watered down doesn't help. Suddenly they sell for $25. That's how I got mine!
     
  15. tjcurrie

    tjcurrie Registered User

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    Agree whole heartedly.

    Agree whole heartedly.

    Agree whole heartedly. Ebay is good in a lot of ways, but I hate the hand that it's had in ruining the hobby.

    And hey, how'd you like to make some money on that Yzerman? I'll give you $40 :naughty:

    The Yzerman we have is my brother's. I need one myself. I think I'll just go support the evil empire and snag one off ebay as well.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  16. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    i don't think that's just the rarity factor. i think the flavour of the month is always going to be initially overpriced, and then regress back to the pack when the new big thing arrives.

    i remember that first upper deck set, which was the last time i seriously collected. belfour's rookie probably peaked at $10. that mid-season fedorov card was at $20, then $30. these are more than twenty year-old memories but i think that's pretty close to it. the second series was rarer (or at least we thought so) than the first, so the belfour was never going to be worth more than the fedorov. but then the next year bure comes over and the fedorov goes back down to something like $12 and then the bure goes from $5 to $10 to $20 to $30, before itself dropping off to roughly the $12 mark when teemu came over the year after and attention shifted again.

    obviously the scale is different now with RNH apparently hitting $100, but it should level off too.

    didn't have an older brother, and dad didn't grow up with hockey, so the oldest of my rookie cards was from the o-pee-chee year with turgeon, nieuwendyk, and shanahan's RCs. i think they peaked at $20 when i was still paying attention twenty-odd years ago. probably not worth the plastic holders they're sitting in in my mom's crawlspace now.
     
  17. Pominville Knows

    Pominville Knows Registered User

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    Allow me to disagree. This way everybody can get their hands on game-used memorabilia for an affordable price. I know many jersey collectors has your view on it, but that's easy for them to say.
     
  18. Porn*

    Porn* Registered User

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    I've got to find it lol. pm me and i'll see if i can find it... it's in a box...

    even looked on google to find it.. but i can't lol
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  19. mouser

    mouser Business of Hockey

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    "What should they be worth"? They're worth what someone is willing to pay for them.

    Unless you're actively trading the cards you own as an investment then what does it matter what they're worth today vs ten years ago?
     
  20. Big Phil

    Big Phil Registered User

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    I don't know if the word "should" is the best word. I guess a lot of us think and assumed the hobby would never die and keep on trucking. After all, kids collected these in the 1950s, and how are we to know that by the 2000s it was going the way of the dodo bird?

    In the world we live in of cell phones, texting while holding that phone, Facebook, Twitter, and did I mention texting?................I'm pretty sure the attention span for sports cards is never going to come back. Hey remember when marbles used to be popular?
     
  21. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    ^ phil, and yet with the total digitization and immediate availability of all music where and whenever you want it, vinyl has made a huge comeback. nice market, sure, but from what i understand most dedicated record stores (i.e., not a wal-mart or a target) sell considerably more product in vinyl than they do in CD. so who knows?

    the interesting wrinkle in all of this is some writers see a connection between the luxury vinyl industry among 30-something people today and the accelerated 90s trading card industry they grew up with. example: http://thewire.co.uk/in-writing/essays/collateral-damage_numero-group-on-the-vinyl-bubble
     
  22. TatTar

    TatTar Registered User

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    It's the rarity. A Lidstrom rookie is worth a $1 because everybody has 10 of them. While an Orr rookie is worth $3000 because nobody saved them. RNH is worth $100 because limited print and many think he is future star.
     
  23. tjcurrie

    tjcurrie Registered User

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    Yes I realize all of that.

    I think people are missing the point. Possibly I worded it wrong. What I'm saying is take out all of that where the market was flooded with cards in the early 90s and on. Shouldn't a Lidstrom rookie be worth around what a Bourque rookie was back then? Shouldn't a Hasek or Brodeur be sitting somewhere close to what a Roy would be? Shouldn't a Selanne or a Bure be hovering around Brett Hull or Mike Bossy prices rather than a few bucks? If Yzerman's rookie is at say $100, what would a Sakic be? Or Modano? Or Lindros? - based on the player and the card market prior to the over-production of the early 90s.

    Take these players from the early 90s whose cards were mass-produced and compare them to players cards from before.
     
  24. ted1971

    ted1971 History Of Hockey

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    If someone pays $9 for a Bure rookie, then They are getting ripped off. You can get Them on Ebay for about $2 a piece.
     
  25. Bear of Bad News

    Bear of Bad News HFBoards Escape Goat

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    If you take out supply and demand, then doesn't what you're asking for just boil down to "how much better was player X than player Y?"
     

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