mercury
Registered User
This is a weird conversation. Non-garbage veteran blueline help was a Flyers need. A guy like Gusev really wasn't. The Devils made a good move for a guy they think they needed. The Flyers did the same.
Confirmed Trade: [SJS/PHI] Sharks trade RD Justin Braun to the Flyers for 2019 2nd and 2020 3rd
- Thread starter Gospel of Prospal
- Start date
Patty Ice
Straight to the Banc
Kobe Armstrong
Registered User
- Jul 26, 2011
- 15,070
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Braun, Gusev, Shaw, Burakovsky, Fox
sheesh
I'll make a mental note to keep track of them over the season, should be a fun experiment. Out of the group right now I'd maybe take the gamble on Gusev but long term I think Fox was probably the best value
Kale Hulls
Registered User
- May 15, 2013
- 3,620
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People don't realize how fast the value drop off of draft picks is. If 1st overall is 100%, 2nd overall is usually about 60% most years, and you are usually down to about 10% of that value at pick number 10. The majority of players drafted in 2nd round will statistically never play a significant role in the NHL. A 2nd and a 3rd for somebody who can jump in immediately, play a season or two and probably make a positive impact for an NHL team is a steal. If Vegas and SJ weren't in cap hell they wouldn't have let go of these players for so little.
Realistically Braun was playing 10 minutes a night.
Our projected pairings are:
Simek-Burns
Vlasic-Karlsson
Dillon-XXX
There is no reason to pay your 3rd pairing 7M. We actually have enough to pay Braun after the Labanc contract but there is no reason to invest in something that is going to have so little impact on the season. Regardless of how much cap space we have, we needed to move him.
Our projected pairings are:
Simek-Burns
Vlasic-Karlsson
Dillon-XXX
There is no reason to pay your 3rd pairing 7M. We actually have enough to pay Braun after the Labanc contract but there is no reason to invest in something that is going to have so little impact on the season. Regardless of how much cap space we have, we needed to move him.
themelkman
Always Delivers
Braun averaged over 20 minutes a game last season. Just over 21 in the playoffs. DW isn’t done with the Sharks roster. That’s why Jumbo and Patty aren’t signed yet. Braun was 100% a salary cap casualty. If we had the space, he would still be a Shark. This was a good move by Philly.
what?was just talking about the "2nd and 3rd rounder" being popular to trade for a player these days is all.
My bad. I thought you were trying to compare Gusev and Braun with your original statement.
10 minutes is probably an exaggeration, and I agree Braun is a strong player, but I was going off Burns and Karlsson being 25 minute a night guys, leaving 10-15 for the third RD. Obviously, assuming everyone stays healthy for the year is a poor assumption so he would provide lots of value there.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Braun averaged that many minutes because of injuries (Karlsson and Simek), Dillon shitting the bed in the playoffs, and Pete choosing to play him on his off side where he was straight bad. Don’t use minutes played alone to judge players.
TheDawnOfANewTage
Dahlin, it’ll all be fine
- Dec 17, 2018
- 12,234
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This dood knows.
One of those rare times I think both teams win- Philly wins a bit more, but Sharks got what they could and just hope one of those picks pans out.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Yes, there are examples of KHL players failing miserably. That's why it's probably not good to say something like "players like Gusev automatically score 80 points and win you playoff rounds."
However, nobody said that. What you said was this:
Seeing as Gusev's KHL production is superior to Panarin's when he came over, and guys like Panarin unquestionably win you playoff rounds, there's certainly a chance that a guy like Gusev could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff round. There is significantly more evidence, such as Gusev's estimated scoring rate through tools like NHLe, to suggest that guys like Gusev do win you playoff rounds.
At this stage of their careers, given every single factor we know - age, traditional aging curves, style of play, NHL scoring rates, NHL estimated scoring rates, style of play, estimated WAR, etc. - I think it's probably safer to suggest that Gusev is much more likely to win playoff rounds for his team than Braun is.
You realize Gusev is almost the same age as Panarin and Panarin's last KHL season was 5 years ago. When Gusev was the same age he scored 14 points in 27 KHL games.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
That's wrong.
Panarin's final KHL season was 2014-2015, where Gusev scored 37 points in 55 games.
I don't know how people can say Philadelphia won this more.
Justin Braun has one year left on his contract. And he returned more than Colin Miller with 3 years left on his contract, or Nikita Gusev who agreed to a 2-year contract. Hell, he returned about half of what Jacob Trouba returned!
Yeah, Gusev is like 8 months younger, so you can either compare that one to Panarin's final KHL season (62 points in 54 games) or Gusev's next season where he scored 49 in 55 (I didnt notice that he got traded mid season the 14 in 23 was from his first team that year). Either way, Gusev produced less at the same age as Panarin. So while I think Gusev will likely be a decent top 6 forward this season I don't expect him to be on the same level that Panarin was when he came over, let alone now.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
I don't see why age matters too much here, unless you think Panarin went through some sort of major development from age 23 (final KHL season) to age 24 (final NHL season).
At any rate, I generally agree with your conclusion that Gusev will be a decent top-6 forward but not on Panarin's level. But if you think that, then do you really have an issue with my response - that there are examples of success which suggest that Gusev also can be? And that Gusev can probably contribute more to winning a playoff series than Braun?
Hostile Offer
Artist formerly known as Eagle Peninsula
Fox easily should be 1st round value but he was probably going to sign with the Rangers anyway so the Canes didn't have a lot of leverage with him. The 2nd+3rd was essentially just the value the Rangers paid to get him signed this year instead of the next so he's a little bit different compared to the rest.
I wish Fletcher would have the same common sense as you do. Such a minimal impact trading for 2 older, again, expensive for no reason defensemen.
Rich Nixon
No Prior Knowledge of "Flyers"
You wish Fletcher had the same common sense to...suddenly make Karlsson and Burns appear on his team?
Why is Gusev v Braun even a debate? Philly isn’t in the market for taking a risk. That’s why we went after Braun. He’s a safe, reliable defender. There aren’t many question marks about his game.
Gusev has a ton of question marks about his game because we haven’t seen him play in the NHL yet. I don’t know if this amount of hype is justification for his ceiling, but NJD are in the market for risk given their roster.
The payment of 2nd + 3rd shouldn’t be to say... “Oh, Gusev has a higher ceiling so it’s stupid in hindsight to pay that”. Not at all.
NJD needed depth and another potential impact player. They think they’ll get that with Gusev, so it’s a good trade for them. PHI doesn’t need another impact winger, but we need a defender who can play through pressure; one that can help our younger players in said pressure. Fletcher thinks he got that in Braun, so it’s a good trade for us.
NJD are looking to be contenders when Hischier, Smith, Hughes, and co are a little more acclimated to the NHL. They are a fringe playoff team, so that’s why they’re taking risks.
Analysts are going off of the 8 goalies and 7 down years from the flyers perspective. That’s highly unlikely to occur again and we got much better on paper- especially our 4th and 3rd Line. Even with all of that we finished 5 spots out of the playoffs. I don’t think PHI is a fringe playoff team like most are saying.
The metro will be very very rough this year. Who knows.
Gusev has a ton of question marks about his game because we haven’t seen him play in the NHL yet. I don’t know if this amount of hype is justification for his ceiling, but NJD are in the market for risk given their roster.
The payment of 2nd + 3rd shouldn’t be to say... “Oh, Gusev has a higher ceiling so it’s stupid in hindsight to pay that”. Not at all.
NJD needed depth and another potential impact player. They think they’ll get that with Gusev, so it’s a good trade for them. PHI doesn’t need another impact winger, but we need a defender who can play through pressure; one that can help our younger players in said pressure. Fletcher thinks he got that in Braun, so it’s a good trade for us.
NJD are looking to be contenders when Hischier, Smith, Hughes, and co are a little more acclimated to the NHL. They are a fringe playoff team, so that’s why they’re taking risks.
Analysts are going off of the 8 goalies and 7 down years from the flyers perspective. That’s highly unlikely to occur again and we got much better on paper- especially our 4th and 3rd Line. Even with all of that we finished 5 spots out of the playoffs. I don’t think PHI is a fringe playoff team like most are saying.
The metro will be very very rough this year. Who knows.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
It really isn't fair to compare the two. Gusev could be a high impact player while Braun is the opposite where you know what you're getting, nothing more and nothing less. He'll be solid defensively, but don't expect any impact on offense.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
IMO -
- Braun is a depth dman who you don't want higher than #4 on your team and really bottom pairing is best for him. I would never trade this package for him.
- Gusev? I dunno. he might be worth it, he might not. He plays in a league where 34yr old Nigel Dawes and 32yr old Shipachyov and a 35yr old Kovalchuk are super elite mvp candidates. maybe he's better than they are, maybe he's not.
i'd gamble on gusev ahead of braun, though.
- Braun is a depth dman who you don't want higher than #4 on your team and really bottom pairing is best for him. I would never trade this package for him.
- Gusev? I dunno. he might be worth it, he might not. He plays in a league where 34yr old Nigel Dawes and 32yr old Shipachyov and a 35yr old Kovalchuk are super elite mvp candidates. maybe he's better than they are, maybe he's not.
i'd gamble on gusev ahead of braun, though.
themelkman
Always Delivers
Saying Braun is only good bottom pairing is clear you don’t know his game. He is a very solid defender most of the time and was the number three d on the sharks would be cup run.
