Confirmed Trade: [SJS/MIN] Devan Dubnyk (50% retained) and 2022 7th round pick for 2022 5th round pick

[7even]

What exactly is SJS trying to accomplish here

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What exactly is SJS trying to accomplish here

DW and company have been completely clueless about goaltending since Warren Strelow died. When they made the coaching changes, they put Nabokov as goalie coach. The goalies saw improvement while coinciding with improved defensive play. They apparently asked Nabokov for a list of goalies to get for him to coach. They're all-in with Nabokov as goalie coach to such a degree that they believe he can turn Jones and Dubnyk around while also groom Melnichuk to be their heir apparent.

 

[Anomie2029]

When I saw the Sharks were trading for Dubnyk I absolutely hated it.
Now knowing it is with 50% retention - I still hate it but less.

I'm have absolutely no expectation that Dubnyk or Jones will bounce back. I suspect Dubnyk lasts the season and is not re-signed, meanwhile Jones is bought out if Seattle don't take him (unlikely they would).

 

[jetsforever]

Maybe better than Jones, but SJ isn't really swinging for the fences here

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Guess the point is that next seasons schedule will be condensed?

 

[Pandaman11]

A 34-year old who had a .890 SV% is exactly what San Jose needs

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

He got a 5th and Allen >> Dubnyk

Last season was Dubnyk's 1st season under .913 sv% in 8 years. While Allen bounced around from starter to bench because he wasn't consistent. On his 2 longest playoff runs as a Blue he primarily backed up Elliott and Binnington.

Not saying he won't be better going forward, but people on this site always seem to look at the previous year and value that over the body.

 

[Stephen]

I don’t like this trade for either team. Feels like San Jose is still thinking of themselves as a zombie contender and the Wild seem to be hitting the eject button on players left right and center and will ultimately end up being a lottery team. But intentionally.

 

[Nharris31]

I don’t like this trade for either team. Feels like San Jose is still thinking of themselves as a zombie contender and the Wild seem to be hitting the eject button on players left right and center and will ultimately end up being a lottery team. But intentionally.

Not with the defense the Wild have they won’t be a lottery team. The point of trading Dubnyk is to get another goalie via trade or free agency

 

[ThatGuy22]

I don’t like this trade for either team. Feels like San Jose is still thinking of themselves as a zombie contender and the Wild seem to be hitting the eject button on players left right and center and will ultimately end up being a lottery team. But intentionally.

Hitting the eject button on the worst goaltender in the league is a good thing.

 

[TaLoN]

I don’t like this trade for either team. Feels like San Jose is still thinking of themselves as a zombie contender and the Wild seem to be hitting the eject button on players left right and center and will ultimately end up being a lottery team. But intentionally.

How does hitting the eject button on Dubnyk make the Wild worse? He is quite literally the worst possible option to play in goal.

 

[Agent Zub]

You have to look at the sort of shots Dubnyk's been facing.

Last year, among goalies with 500+ minutes played...

• High-danger SV% - 2nd worst
• High-danger Goals Saved Above Average - Worst
  
• Avg Shot Distance - 3rd furthest

Same numbers from 2018-19...

• High-danger SV% - 16th worst
• High-danger Goals Saved Above Average - 5th worst
  
• Avg Shot Distance - 3rd furthest

The numbers tell you the same thing watching Wild games would: since arriving, Dubnyk's been sheltered by a Wild team that allows lots of poor quality shots from the perimeter and very few high-danger chances. For the first few years he was good at stopping all of those crappy shots, but he's gotten progressively worse at it and noticeably slower. Last year was the season that even Minnesota's defense couldn't keep his head above water, but it's more than just "one down year."

On top of that, what the numbers don't capture is the timing of some of these goals. There would be games where the team was playing hard in front of him and allowing almost nothing, but all it took was an unscreened floater from above the circles to fly right past him. That crap turns the tide of an entire game against you, and it would happen over and over. And then after the game we'd get treated to a lengthy explanation as to why it wasn't his fault.

So much of the position is mental so a change of scenery might well snap him out of it. But his poor performance goes way beyond a slump.

lol sounds like martin jones

 

[Jerkbait]

No they aren't. Andersen was even mentioned. They are going for MAF

Actually no.. billy is going after Matt murray...

 

[Bazeek]

Actually no.. billy is going after Matt murray...

@KaprizovSaveUs just willed us into drafting Rossi, so I can't entirely discount what you're doing here.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

@KaprizovSaveUs just willed us into drafting Rossi, so I can't entirely discount what you're doing here.

It’s a fool-proof system. People just don’t do it enough. We’re drafting Ryan O’Rourke tomorrow because I want us to.

 

[Bazeek]

It’s a fool-proof system. People just don’t do it enough. We’re drafting Ryan O’Rourke tomorrow because I want us to.

Oh I'm down with New Thought as a draft strategy.

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

Actually no.. billy is going after Matt murray...

I mean your screen name since all,. You are trolling

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Last season was Dubnyk's 1st season under .913 sv% in 8 years. While Allen bounced around from starter to bench because he wasn't consistent. On his 2 longest playoff runs as a Blue he primarily backed up Elliott and Binnington.

Not saying he won't be better going forward, but people on this site always seem to look at the previous year and value that over the body.

And his year before was his first season under .918 in 6 years.. he is showing trend downward.

He also plays behind one of the best defenses in the league so his 2018-2019 was helped quite a bit by that


Additionally when you are 34 years old and have a terrible year, theres a higher chance that youve just gotten old and lost your ability than when you are mid 20s and it more likely being an outlier. People drop off a cliff at that age all the time so just going off the last year isnt completely unjustified as going off his body of work of his mid to late 20s might not be as good of a projection for him going forward.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

He may be trending downward, but I don't think some understand how hard it was for him to play last season on a personal level. With his life on more stable ground he should be focused.

 

[dmcccdmn]

DW is banking on the hope that Dubnyk's wife almost dying was the cause for him to be distracted and having the bad season. If Dubnyk doesn't end up playing better than Jones, then they just have a backup goalie that gets paid a meager $200k more than their previous backup and he won't be around next season. Besides, people who get upset that the Sharks traded for Dubnyk offer no alternative in which they could get a better goalie. From last I checked, quality goalies don't grow on trees and they certainly aren't available for the picking. Having a bad goalie problem like Jones is like having a bad QB in NFL. There's a limited number of quality players at that position and teams aren't exactly willing to let them go easily.

 

[Leafmealone11]

You have to look at the sort of shots Dubnyk's been facing.

Last year, among goalies with 500+ minutes played...

• High-danger SV% - 2nd worst
• High-danger Goals Saved Above Average - Worst
  
• Avg Shot Distance - 3rd furthest

Same numbers from 2018-19...

• High-danger SV% - 16th worst
• High-danger Goals Saved Above Average - 5th worst
  
• Avg Shot Distance - 3rd furthest

The numbers tell you the same thing watching Wild games would: since arriving, Dubnyk's been sheltered by a Wild team that allows lots of poor quality shots from the perimeter and very few high-danger chances. For the first few years he was good at stopping all of those crappy shots, but he's gotten progressively worse at it and noticeably slower. Last year was the season that even Minnesota's defense couldn't keep his head above water, but it's more than just "one down year."

On top of that, what the numbers don't capture is the timing of some of these goals. There would be games where the team was playing hard in front of him and allowing almost nothing, but all it took was an unscreened floater from above the circles to fly right past him. That crap turns the tide of an entire game against you, and it would happen over and over. And then after the game we'd get treated to a lengthy explanation as to why it wasn't his fault.

So much of the position is mental so a change of scenery might well snap him out of it. But his poor performance goes way beyond a slump.

Would it not be expected that a goalie with a high average shot distance has a low high danger shot total against?
This would make it hard to have a high goals saved above average total(the main reason why goals saved above average is worthless)

 

[Digitalbooya]

I don’t like this trade for either team. Feels like San Jose is still thinking of themselves as a zombie contender and the Wild seem to be hitting the eject button on players left right and center and will ultimately end up being a lottery team. But intentionally.

Upgrading goaltending seems like a move in a positive direction. Dubnyk lost the starter role to Stalock... really think about that for a second. Last night the Wild drafted Rossi and he wants to play on the NHL team next year. GMBG seems happy to give him a shot at it. If the Dumba trade yields a 2C then the Wild could be very well set up for expansion and the future.

 

[2Pair]

Hate to burst all the bubbles, but Dubnyk actually played better after his wife had her health scare.

 

[AKL]

Hate to burst all the bubbles, but Dubnyk actually played better after his wife had her health scare.

Still not the Dubnyk of old. He's clearly lost a big step.

 

[Bazeek]

Would it not be expected that a goalie with a high average shot distance has a low high danger shot total against?
This would make it hard to have a high goals saved above average total(the main reason why goals saved above average is worthless)

The high overall shot distance and poor HDSV% say that he doesn't face many high-danger shots, but when he does he's bad at stopping them. The implication is that Minnesota's defense was good and insulating him from the most difficult scoring chances and his over all GAA and SV% still tended to be pretty pedestrian the last few years (except last year when they were both awful).

I'm not sure how the Sharks will look defensively next year, but if they don't protect homeplate well they're going to have a bad time.