Simmonds and Voracek time to go

[Striiker]

Calling Voracek a 2nd liner is way over the top. If you take into account this season's 66 point pace he has AVERAGING 69.7 points per season over the last five years. This year's 66 point pace includes him being on pace for the most ES points he has had over that span as well. Voracek might not be an elite player but he is clearly a first line winger.

Most important thing for people to remember is the impact that the broken powerplay is having on the top guys (Giroux, Ghost, Voracek) point totals.

Voraceks currently pacing for 14 PP points... he had 35 last year.

Saying he's not a top line player is either incredible ignorance or clear bias.

 

[deadhead]

First line wingers score at 2.0+ pp/60.
Jake I think has done that once in his career.
He averages around 1.70, which is 2nd line scoring, and his lack of defense doesn't compensate.

He's also not a goal scorer, goals are worth more than points, because secondary assists simply aren't close to being as valuable as goals.

last four years average 13-29 42 at ES, this year on a 18-35 pace after 15-35 last year.
On the other hand, great Corsi from 21-25, steady decline the last four years.

In 30 PO games with the Flyers, 3-8 11 at ES [prorated 8-22 30]. CF 49.8%, CFrel +4.4.

He's a good player, he's not a top player. A tier below Giroux and Couts who are top players.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is wearing orange colored spectacles.

 

[The Madrigal]

70 point winger over the last half decade = 2nd line winger

You are becoming a caricature of yourself at this point.

 

[baudib1]

Guys, remember this is deadhead so just assume any numbers he throws out are made up.

Voracek
2018-19 2.63 pp/60
2017-18 3.20 pp/60

As a Flyer: 2.75 pp/60

It's not ES points either because Jake is averaging 2.28 ES p/60 this year. So yeah, fake news.

 

[Striiker]

Voracek is 23rd in points in the entire NHL over the the previous two seasons and this one so far.

 

[win88ice2004]

He's also not a goal scorer, goals are worth more than points, because secondary assists simply aren't close to being as valuable as goals.

New poster here long time lurker, but this is an extremely hot take. Having been around hockey my entire life, I never knew that a goal counted as more than an assist. However if that is the case you want to make, then i guess we can no longer call Wayne the greatest hockey player ever then. Someone would have to look up the data for me but i think he had a few more assists than goals in his career....

Jake is not the problem with the team. He is streaky, but all players are to some degree. 60+ point wingers do not just grow on trees.

 

[deadhead]

Guys, remember this is deadhead so just assume any numbers he throws out are made up.

Voracek
2018-19 2.63 pp/60
2017-18 3.20 pp/60

As a Flyer: 2.75 pp/60

It's not ES points either because Jake is averaging 2.28 ES p/60 this year. So yeah, fake news.

1.73 pp/60 at 5x5
last year 1.96 at 5x5
two years ago 1.43 at 5x5

Corsica | Skater Stats
see also
Jakub Voracek NHL Advanced Statistics (5-on-5) | Hockey-Reference.com

There is a weird anomaly with Voracek, most players have almost identical ES and 5x5 numbers, since they have very few ES minutes that aren't 5x5.

So this year he has 36 minutes that aren't 5x5,
Last four years, 5x5 per 60: 1.8, 1.9, 1.3, 1.6
Last four years, ES per 60: 2.6, 2.2, 1.7, 1.8

Giroux has 43 minutes that aren't 5x5
Last four years, 5x5 per 60: 3.0, 2.9, 1.0, 1.7
Last four years, ES per 60: 3.2, 3.0, 1.3, 1.9

Can't find what those extra minutes include?
3 on 3 OT? 6 on 5 when the other team pulls their goalie? 4x4 of course.

Doesn't change the fact that Voracek's 5x5 production is 2nd line. With below average defense.
His +/- over a long period is indicative of his defensive mediocrity, over a 4-5 year period other factors tend to even out. -32 over the last 5 years combined.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Jets spanking Preds with no Buff was very nice. Let’s hope they get desperate

 

[deadhead]

New poster here long time lurker, but this is an extremely hot take. Having been around hockey my entire life, I never knew that a goal counted as more than an assist. However if that is the case you want to make, then i guess we can no longer call Wayne the greatest hockey player ever then. Someone would have to look up the data for me but i think he had a few more assists than goals in his career....

Jake is not the problem with the team. He is streaky, but all players are to some degree. 60+ point wingers do not just grow on trees.

Some people think goals count more than assists:

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Last five years of adjusted goals for Flyer players:
Giroux 35, 38, 21, 27, 30
Voracek 26, 29, 24, 20, 31
Couts 30, 30, 14, 15, 16
JVR 17, 25, 27, 13*, 26 *40 games
TK 18, 20, 12
Simmonds 19, 20, 25, 28, 24

Adjusted goals career leaders:
Howe 925
Jagr 841
Gretzky 758
Ovechkin 752
Selanne 741
Hull 738
Iginla 706

NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[win88ice2004]

Some people think goals count more than assists:

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Last five years of adjusted goals for Flyer players:
Giroux 35, 38, 21, 27, 30
Voracek 26, 29, 24, 20, 31
Couts 30, 30, 14, 15, 16
JVR 17, 25, 27, 13*, 26 *40 games
TK 18, 20, 12
Simmonds 19, 20, 25, 28, 24

Adjusted goals career leaders:
Howe 925
Jagr 841
Gretzky 758
Ovechkin 752
Selanne 741
Hull 738
Iginla 706

NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

Unless I am not understand, this is not the point of adjusted goals as your accounting for them. Adjusted goals, Howe et al, is adjustments based on the time frame played and amount of goals over the season, etc.

"In order to account for different schedule lengths, roster sizes, and scoring environments, some statistics have been adjusted. All statistics have been adjusted to an 82-game schedule with a maximum roster size of 18 skaters and league averages of 6 goals per game and 1.67 assists per goal."

Effectively a made up statistic to bring up the amounts of points for certain players to hit a narrative. An assist is an assist. Without that pass there's no goal. You cannot assume in your imagination that Howe or Gretzky would have more or less points then they actually had. Gretzky had what he had in real life games. No made up stats. And he was an assist monster that made players around him better, similar to Jake.

 

[baudib1]

1.73 pp/60 at 5x5
last year 1.96 at 5x5
two years ago 1.43 at 5x5

Corsica | Skater Stats
see also
Jakub Voracek NHL Advanced Statistics (5-on-5) | Hockey-Reference.com

There is a weird anomaly with Voracek, most players have almost identical ES and 5x5 numbers, since they have very few ES minutes that aren't 5x5.

So this year he has 36 minutes that aren't 5x5,
Last four years, 5x5 per 60: 1.8, 1.9, 1.3, 1.6
Last four years, ES per 60: 2.6, 2.2, 1.7, 1.8

Giroux has 43 minutes that aren't 5x5
Last four years, 5x5 per 60: 3.0, 2.9, 1.0, 1.7
Last four years, ES per 60: 3.2, 3.0, 1.3, 1.9

Can't find what those extra minutes include?
3 on 3 OT? 6 on 5 when the other team pulls their goalie? 4x4 of course.

Doesn't change the fact that Voracek's 5x5 production is 2nd line. With below average defense.
His +/- over a long period is indicative of his defensive mediocrity, over a 4-5 year period other factors tend to even out. -32 over the last 5 years combined.

1.73 would put him 55th among wingers at 5v5, which is still first-line.

 

[renberg]

Would any of you extend Simmonds? If so on what terms?

 

[renberg]

Would any of you extend Simmonds? If so on what terms?

My call would be no. If that upset some of the players, I'd look at moving them as well. When a team is at the bottom of the standings, they don't get to dictate too much.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Would any of you extend Simmonds? If so on what terms?

Nope. Not even at a 2 year deal. And if other core members are upset , they can go too.

The make up needs to change

 

[Tripod]

Jake is the least of our issues. Just leave him on a line with G or Couts and let him do his thing. I like the Simmonds to Nashville for Fabbro plus a pick trade. Solid young RHD to me is more valuable than higher risk Tolvanen who could phenomenal or a bust.

If we did that deal and added Fabbro, it would give us that guy to further cushion us if we lost Sanheim or Myers in expansion. Having an expansion exempt guy to replace them would be nice if that happened.

Jets spanking Preds with no Buff was very nice. Let’s hope they get desperate

See I think Nashville is more likely to trade for Simmonds so I was hoping they got run over.

 

[Rebels57]

Hockey Central Tonight(John Shannon) saying Simmonds was on the verge of asking for a trade with Hextall, but since Fletch came in, they seem to have come to some type of understanding. Will be highly coveted by all the teams in the Atlantic as well as the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS!

Don't shoot the messenger.....just passing along info

There is zero chance the Flyers would ever trade Simmonds to Pittsburgh. They dont even have the assets to overpay for him.

 

[Rebels57]

Would any of you extend Simmonds? If so on what terms?

Not a chance in hell.

 

[Tripod]

There is zero chance the Flyers would ever trade Simmonds to Pittsburgh. They dont even have the assets to overpay for him.

I agree....hence why I said not to shoot me. I was just passing on what Shannon said.

 

[Bigkarl]

Would any of you extend Simmonds? If so on what terms?

I think we should sign him to a one year deal every summer and trade him for a 1st + prospect every trade deadline

 

[Striiker]

I wouldn't take Simmonds back for 1 year at league minimum.

His roster spot is the most valuable thing here because the prospects getting experience should be the main focus for next year. Our future depends on them reaching their potential and having someone like Simmonds block them does more harm than his scoring does good.

 

[Chinatown88]

I agree....hence why I said not to shoot me. I was just passing on what Shannon said.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

I think we should sign him to a one year deal every summer and trade him for a 1st + prospect every trade deadline

Profit.

 

[deadhead]

Effectively a made up statistic to bring up the amounts of points for certain players to hit a narrative. An assist is an assist. Without that pass there's no goal. You cannot assume in your imagination that Howe or Gretzky would have more or less points then they actually had. Gretzky had what he had in real life games. No made up stats. And he was an assist monster that made players around him better, similar to Jake.

There are almost two assists per goal.
One reason primary assists are noted is that secondary assists are often arbitrary while the primary assist is the one that sets up a goal. Maybe a quick and dirty weighting would be 3 for a goal, 2 for a P1, 1 for a P2, then divide by 3:

ES
Giroux 23.3
Couts 16.7
TK 15.3
Voracek 14.3
Simmonds 11.0
Laughton 10.3
Lindblom 9.0
Patrick 8.7
JVR 8.0
Weise 7.0
Weal 4.3
Raffl 4.3

Sanheim 8.0
Provorov 7.3
Hagg 7.0
Gudas 6.3
Ghost 5.7

What is needed is someone to do something similar to the NHL with hurries, hits and sacks, which gives a truer picture of who gets pressure on the QB.

Maybe weight assists by their actual contribution to the goal, i.e. a routine out let pass shouldn't have value just because the recipient made a perfect pass to a forward to set up a breakaway, but a perfect pass to an open shooter should count more.

 

[win88ice2004]

There are almost two assists per goal.
One reason primary assists are noted is that secondary assists are often arbitrary while the primary assist is the one that sets up a goal. Maybe a quick and dirty weighting would be 3 for a goal, 2 for a P1, 1 for a P2, then divide by 3:

ES
Giroux 23.3
Couts 16.7
TK 15.3
Voracek 14.3
Simmonds 11.0
Laughton 10.3
Lindblom 9.0
Patrick 8.7
JVR 8.0
Weise 7.0
Weal 4.3
Raffl 4.3

Sanheim 8.0
Provorov 7.3
Hagg 7.0
Gudas 6.3
Ghost 5.7

What is needed is someone to do something similar to the NHL with hurries, hits and sacks, which gives a truer picture of who gets pressure on the QB.

Maybe weight assists by their actual contribution to the goal, i.e. a routine out let pass shouldn't have value just because the recipient made a perfect pass to a forward to set up a breakaway, but a perfect pass to an open shooter should count more.

While i disagree with the overall thought here on the calculation of points, you principle to me proves that Jake is valuable. I guess this would be interesting to see from other top line wingers around the league and see their calculations. You list to me proves that Jake proves that he is the 4th most important player on the Flyers. Therefore I bring up the previous question...why the hell would we trade him?

Side bar, one of the benefits for the 2nd assist is it rewards players who are defensive minded and help with the break out. Just because one is closer to the second doesn't mean its necessarily better. A dman that takes a shot from the point that is tipped in. Should they receive an assist for that silly tip in? Was not a pass that set up a goal. Similarly should the tip in count as a goal for whoever tipped it in?

 

[Foggy14]

Jeez Jake, you're making $9,250,000 this season.

Next time, let one of our "poor" players (somebody making less than a million) have the stupid car show gig.