Sidney Crosby vs Connor McDavid - This year Only

[Midnight Judges]

Crosby is a better playoff player because he has the ability to adapt his game so he can't be shutdown like McDavid was in his first playoff appearance.

Crosby has been shut down in the playoffs though. On several occasions.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think the difference would be shadowing\extra attention that both of these player would get in playoffs. McD was just a kid the last time he was in the playoffs and got shut down by both ANA and SJ checking. He might be able to fight through it better in future but the ability to fight through close checking is a factor.

At the end of the day, it’s mostly just puck luck. He was clearly the best player on the ice in the San Jose and Anaheim series and pucks just weren’t going in for him. Sometimes that happens. Ideally an elite player like McDavid can make the pucks go in a little more but every single player in NHL history has struggled to do that over a 13 game sample before.

 

[Sweetpotato]

If McDavid and Crosby were traded today for each other, 1 for 1, how would that effect how you perceive the Oilers and Pens playoff/cup chances?

McDavid both scenarios.

 

[Midnight Judges]

There are players who historically perform better in the playoffs and who historically perform worse. Joe Thornton is a guy who performs worse, Justin williams is a guy who performs better.

With McDavid, his one playoff performance was statistically that of a guy who performs worse, but the sample size is small enough that I don’t think it’s fair to brand him as such and as long as he isn’t proven to be a guy who performs significantly worse, I would still take him over Crosby who historically performs about the same in playoffs and regular season.

I think the vast majority of the time, playoff performance disparities from the regular season to playoffs are well within reasonable margins of error, and within the context that playoff scoring is generally 3-5% lower (although it wasn't last season).

Williams and Thornton are probably known as the two biggest anomalies from this generation, and their deviations aren't even all that extreme.

Williams regular season career:
.63 PPG
.26 GPG

Playoffs career:
.67 PPG
.25 GPG

I gotta say these numbers are a helluva lot closer than I thought they would be. Can you honestly say you're not surprised by this?

Thornton:

Regular season:
.95 PPG
.265 GPG

Playoffs:
.77 PPG
.17 GPG

Anyway, after you factor is a ~4% adjustment that reflects league average scoring reductions in the playoffs, is an 18% reduction all that wild considering Thornton is on the extreme end of playoff disappointments with large sample sizes?

I just don't think it's enough to say with confidence that some players simply aren't suited for the playoffs.

I think the opposite is true: a brilliant regular season player (like McDavid) has a very high probability of continuing that brilliance in the playoffs.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think the vast majority of the time, playoff performance disparities from the regular season to playoffs are well within reasonable margins of error, and within the context that playoff scoring is generally 3-5% lower (although it wasn't last season).

Williams and Thornton are probably known as the two biggest anomalies from this generation, and their deviations aren't even all that extreme.

Williams regular season career:
.63 PPG
.26 GPG

Playoffs career:
.67 PPG
.25 GPG

I gotta say these numbers are a helluva lot closer than I thought they would be. Can you honestly say you're not surprised by this?

Thornton:

Regular season:
.95 PPG
.265 GPG

Playoffs:
.77 PPG
.17 GPG

Anyway, after you factor is a ~4% adjustment that reflects league average scoring reductions in the playoffs, is an 18% reduction all that wild considering Thornton is on the extreme end of playoff disappointments with large sample sizes?

I just don't think it's enough to say with confidence that some players simply aren't suited for the playoffs.

I think the opposite is true: a brilliant regular season player (like McDavid) has a very high probability of continuing that brilliance in the playoffs.

Good post.

Definitely was surprised by those numbers and some of it is confirmation bias given that I have watched Williams destroy Thornton in the playoffs more than once in reality and then I’ve watched it happen another thousand times through flashbacks and nightmares

Some other guys that come to mind are Stamkos for the choking side and Briere and Joel Ward for the over-performing side. Definitely a rare bunch that actually have a significant difference in their performances and generally, it’s the middling players that prove real trends of stepping up and the superstar players that prove real trends of falling off a cliff.

I don’t think it matters for Crosby or McDavid at this point. McDavid is also a lot better now than he was in the 2016-2017 regular season and I suspect that if we saw him in the playoffs last year, he would’ve shed the choker label pretty quick.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

McDavid for both. he's the better player

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Crosby has been shut down in the playoffs though. On several occasions.

Which series was he limited by the other team or played poorly independent of coaching?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Which series was he limited by the other team or played poorly independent of coaching?

Well that’s quite the way to make sure you have a basic retort, with absolutely no evidence behind it, to whatever legitimate answer somebody gives you...

 

[nowhereman]

McDavid hasn't proven anything in the playoffs and was largely neutralized in his first kick at the can (though it's hard to hold that against a 19 year old). Why take a chance, when you can get the guy who won 2 of the last 3 Conn Smythe trophies and had 21 points in 12 games last playoffs?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Which series was he limited by the other team or played poorly independent of coaching?

Crosby had 2 secondary assists against the Capitals in 2016 (1 ES point) and was a minus player - sharing a lot of ice time opposite of Ovechkin's line, which scored quite well.

Zero points in a series against the Bruins IIRC.

There were definitely other occasions of being largely shut dow but I'm too lazy to find others.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Well that’s quite the way to make sure you have a basic retort, with absolutely no evidence behind it, to whatever legitimate answer somebody gives you...

Why are you so afraid of context? There's are series where I would agree he played poorly, but they don't perfectly align with his lowest scoring totals.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Why are you so afraid of context? There's are series where I would agree he played poorly, but they don't perfectly align with his lowest scoring totals.

Because you’re essentially saying he can be absolved of all criticism in any playoff series because of “poor coaching”. That’s really not fair to everybody else that he is being compared to.

And weren’t you the one who said that Ovechkin was never the best player if he needed a certain coach to be the best player?

EDIT: The guy who says this:

Well when players' need a certain coach to compete for the scoring title, it becomes difficult to argue that they are the best player.

Is the same guy who suggests that Crosby is absolved of blame if he had bad coaches. Good to know...

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Because you’re essentially saying he can be absolved of all criticism in any playoff series because of “poor coaching”. That’s really not fair to everybody else that he is being compared to.

And weren’t you the one who said that Ovechkin was never the best player if he needed a certain coach to be the best player?

EDIT: The guy who says this:



Is the same guy who suggests that Crosby is absolved of blame if he had bad coaches. Good to know...

If you lack the ability to disentangle individual performance from coaching, that is solely on you. This can be rectified through a mixture of watching more hockey while using critical thinking, or alternatively I guess you could double down on only looking at context-free numbers.

Crosby has led the league in ppg under 3 different coaches and would likely have done it for a 4th if Sullivan had been there for a whole season.

You really seem unable to grasp any nuance: coaching affects every player, but Crosby has proven that he can put up great numbers without being dependent on a coaching style that heavily promotes rush-offense.

The more I read your post it seems like you are dismissing that coaches make an impact on a player's performance. If so, don't bother with replying to my post.

 

[Peat]

Sid for both.

If you have a Cup contender, whether you have Sid or McDavid for the regular season is pretty academic in terms of doing well, so its all about the playoffs.

In the playoffs, where the older player has less to worry about in terms of pacing themselves and that extra experience of pressure situations matters, I believe Sid's best 25 games will still probably beat McDavid's best 25 games.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Crosby had 2 secondary assists against the Capitals in 2016 (1 ES point) and was a minus player - sharing a lot of ice time opposite of Ovechkin's line, which scored quite well.

Zero points in a series against the Bruins IIRC.

There were definitely other occasions of being largely shut dow but I'm too lazy to find others.

This is pretty fair. I wouldn't hold the lack of production in the Bruins series against anyone on the Penguins given the coaching, but the fact is that Crosby played timid and generally ineffective for the first 2.5 games of that series.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

If you lack the ability to disentangle individual performance from coaching, that is solely on you. This can be rectified through a mixture of watching more hockey while using critical thinking, or alternatively I guess you could double down on only looking at context-free numbers.

Crosby has led the league in ppg under 3 different coaches and would likely have done it for a 4th if Sullivan had been there for a whole season.

You really seem unable to grasp any nuance: coaching affects every player, but Crosby has proven that he can put up great numbers without being dependent on a coaching style that heavily promotes rush-offense.

Wow, what an all around failure of a post.

IIRC, Ovechkin led the NHL in scoring each season that Boudreau was coach. He was debatably the best player in the NHL for sure. As soon as a new coach took over for Boudreau, that coach completely ruined him and f***ed up his scoring. At that point that argument couldn’t really be made for him anymore. That doesn’t mean that he never was the best player. A coach can facilitate a strong a player putting up strong numbers but they can’t make a player score 65 f***ing goals.

Crosby has proven he can put up points with any coach, agree. So then why does coaching make him exempt from any sort of criticism for his playoff performance? The coach didn’t prevent him from scoring 56 points in 36 games in the regular season, but suddenly the coach is the guy to blame for him scoring 0 points in 4 games against Boston?

 

[Clint Eastwood]

Crosby for both

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Wow, what an all around failure of a post.

IIRC, Ovechkin led the NHL in scoring each season that Boudreau was coach. He was debatably the best player in the NHL for sure. As soon as a new coach took over for Boudreau, that coach completely ruined him and ****ed up his scoring. At that point that argument couldn’t really be made for him anymore. That doesn’t mean that he never was the best player. A coach can facilitate a strong a player putting up strong numbers but they can’t make a player score 65 ****ing goals.

Crosby has proven he can put up points with any coach, agree. So then why does coaching make him exempt from any sort of criticism for his playoff performance? The coach didn’t prevent him from scoring 56 points in 36 games in the regular season, but suddenly the coach is the guy to blame for him scoring 0 points in 4 games against Boston?

That coach's name..... was Bruce Boudreau. You're obviously well aware that after the 2010 playoffs, the Caps and Boudreau adjusted their philosophy to become more defensive. You are obviously well-versed on the fallout from the shocking upset of one of the most prolific scoring teams ever since, you know, you just referred to the supposed guy after Boudreau as "that coach."

Also, do you think Mike Green was the best offensive dman in the league and then just suddenly lost his abilities at the old age of 25?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

That coach's name..... was Bruce Boudreau. You're obviously well aware that after the 2010 playoffs, the Caps and Boudreau adjusted their philosophy to become more defensive. You are obviously well-versed on the fallout from the shocking upset of one of the most prolific scoring teams ever since, you know, you just referred to the supposed guy after Boudreau as "that coach."

Also, do you think Mike Green was the best offensive dman in the league and then just suddenly lost his abilities at the old age of 25?

My mistake, I knew they fired Boudreau at some point and replaced him with a more defensive minded coach that hurt Ovechkin’s offensive game. I didn’t realize that Boudreau had already done that before he was fired.

I don’t get what point you’re trying to make. At the end of the day, it looks like we might just disagree philosophically on what makes one the “best player”. Yes, I do think that Mike Green was the best offensive defenseman in the NHL in 2009-2010, and then injuries and a system change hurt his game. I don’t believe he lost his abilities but injuries f***ed him more than you realize.

 

[jbobell98]

Weird how people are picking a player who sits 3rd on his own team in scoring....or is the “he isn’t trying hard” excuse still flying around here?

Taking playoffs into account only adds more bias for Crosby. You still have to have a good team to make the playoffs. Who you choose in the playoffs shouldn’t define who is better. Crosby is clearly on a better team than McDavid. I mean we don’t know how McDavid would do in the playoffs, but I think if Crosby gets the benefit of the doubt so much, McDavid should as well.

Crosby is obviously an amazing player and playoff performer, but this year? Why wouldn’t you go with McDavid for this year?

Weird how despite playing 3 less games than Kessel and Malkin Crosby is the Penguins leading goal scorer and only 1 points behind the other two... Crosby nearly had a 2ppg last year in the playoffs and was fresh off two conn smythes. Until Crosby drops off and Mcdavid proves hes the clear cut better playoff performer theres ample reason to pick Crosby.

 

[jbobell98]

Is that even accurate?

In 2016 he played 24 games at a 65 point / 21 goal pace.
In 2017 he played 24 games at a 92 point / 27 goal pace.
In 2018 he played 12 games at a 143 point / 61 goal pace but sacrificed any semblance of playing defense.

Added together :

92 point pace / 31 goal pace / plus minus +14 pace

His regular season pace over that same three regular seasons:

93 point pace / 38 goal pace / plus minus +46 pace

It has been 3.5% more difficult to score in the playoffs relative to the regular season over that span but the goal production drop more than accounts for that.

lol explain how and where he played poor defence last playoffs. And please don't say on the Caps winning goal, if the defence had an ounce of proper positioning Caps players doesnt even lick the blue line with the puck. Hes been a stud defensively the past 3 playoffs. I swear every Crosby thread I see you post some non-sense lmaooooo

 

[Bustedprospect]

Why would that push it in McDavid's favor? So he could have worse linemates?

Crosby is a better playoff player because he has the ability to adapt his game so he can't be shutdown like McDavid was in his first playoff appearance.

Crosby got shutout and started producing when 50 goal 100 point Malkin helped him out. But even in those finals against Detroit he struggled ALOT. After that he didnt do that much until another Hall of Famer helped out.

This so called "adapt" thing you are talking about is having other Hall of Famers or best of a generation player carrying the other lines? Mcdavid just doesnt have this.

 

[bobholly39]

If McDavid and Crosby were traded today for each other, 1 for 1, how would that effect how you perceive the Oilers and Pens playoff/cup chances?

McDavid both scenarios.

Crosby for both. And honestly - Crosby > McDavid for Edmonton especially. I could envision McDavid ~ Crosby or even McDavid > Crosby in Pitt, but in Edmonton give me Crosby.

I think Crosby's intangibles/leadership would play a huge role in getting Edmonton going. And this isn't really me trying to blame McDavid for failures in edmonton, he's young - but I think Crosby would get the boat steered in the right direction pretty quickly. I think that's one thing that's sorely lacking in Edmonton (and not just at player level, but management level too) - and I think Crosby would be very valuable in that sense. Someone like Weber or Toews or a cpl of other guys known for strong leadership skills would help a lot too (obviously not more than McDavid, nowhere near his skill level).

With McDavid in Pitt - you probably need a bit less of that leadership/intangible. This is a championship caliber team full of leaders (Malkin, Letang, etc) who knows how to win. McDavid could concentrate more on-ice play and probably fit in very nicely.

 

[bobholly39]

Is that even accurate?

In 2016 he played 24 games at a 65 point / 21 goal pace.
In 2017 he played 24 games at a 92 point / 27 goal pace.
In 2018 he played 12 games at a 143 point / 61 goal pace but sacrificed any semblance of playing defense.

Added together :

92 point pace / 31 goal pace / plus minus +14 pace

His regular season pace over that same three regular seasons:

93 point pace / 38 goal pace / plus minus +46 pace

It has been 3.5% more difficult to score in the playoffs relative to the regular season over that span but the goal production drop more than accounts for that.

I think you took my words a bit too literally. I wasn't talking about specifically ppg paces or stats - but Crosby has been the best player in the playoffs for the past 3 years as a whole - an argument can be made that he was each individual year too (yes I know round 2 exit last year and you personally believe he sucked defensively - still through 2 rounds it's an easy case to make he was the playoff mvp).

A lot of star players become inconsistent, or don't produce come playoff time. Crosby has found a way to be extremely valuable in contrast. Not every player can say the same - in fact most cant. Look no further than Malkin and OV - his arch-rivals. Both have great playoff performances in the past 3 years - but not each of the 3 years, and not to Crosby's level.

If you factor in Crosby's intangibles into the mix too - I think he's an extremely valuable commodity come playoff time.

 

[bobholly39]

Weird how people are picking a player who sits 3rd on his own team in scoring....or is the “he isn’t trying hard” excuse still flying around here?

Taking playoffs into account only adds more bias for Crosby. You still have to have a good team to make the playoffs. Who you choose in the playoffs shouldn’t define who is better. Crosby is clearly on a better team than McDavid. I mean we don’t know how McDavid would do in the playoffs, but I think if Crosby gets the benefit of the doubt so much, McDavid should as well.

Crosby is obviously an amazing player and playoff performer, but this year? Why wouldn’t you go with McDavid for this year?

I mean you can make a case for McDavid over Crosby if you want - but using "3rd on his team scoring" is really weak. He played less games and is like 1 point away lol.

Looking no furhter than Kessel and Malkin still - they were GREAT in the playoffs for the last 3 years. But *each* of the last 3 years? No, not really. Crosby has been consistently great in each playoff 3 years running. That's much harder, and rare. If you pick Crosby for playoffs it's because it's almost a sure thing you'll get a very very strong performance. Can McDavid outdo him? Yes, super talented. Can McDavid come up short very easily? Yes. I think Crosby is more of a sure thing, and McDavid slightly more of a gamble for playoffs.