Should the Jets re-sign Bryan Little?

[garret9]

Lowry ain't bad, either.

I wonder how much is sustainable thouhgh. Per minute he's below Dano, and remove that PP (which is lightly over exaggerated) and he falls behind Armia per minute too.

In Garret's graph, I'm having trouble understanding what Little's negative "EV Defense" means compared to almost everyone else's positive "EV Defense". Little can't possibly be below a replacement level player in even strength defense...

He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.

 

[Festinator]

It has nothing to do with them wearing a thrashers jersey
Are you not aware of how bad the thrashers were?
the thrashers sucked at drafting and trading
Thrashers were made up of Mediocre players at best

The Jets have made it to the playoffs once...
Thrashers once
So that's twice from 1999 to 2017 lol
They're 0-8

Ya, the thrashers were terrible, that doesn't mean theres something wrong with every player they had. Little was drafted by them, and he's fantastic. I'm not sure what your argument is in regards to what I said, but there's no need to get rid of any "thrashers filth" like some of you say when there is none. If people think its players like Little, Wheeler and Buff (despite some of his actions) holding the team back because they played for atlanta and have a "losing mindset" as some would say, they're probably not very good at thinking. You don't get rid of these players without suitable replacements, and we have none for any of them.

 

[Whileee]

I wonder how much is sustainable thouhgh. Per minute he's below Dano, and remove that PP (which is lightly over exaggerated) and he falls behind Armia per minute too.



He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.

I actually don't think Little has been great defensively this year. He had a slow start after coming back from his injury. Neither has Buff. Enstrom seems in a down year, too. What do the numbers say?

 

[GNP]

Right On Here !!!

Jets can't get better by trading Little til we get a better centre than Little and the Jets don't have that
I think Scheifele is the better offensive centre, but Little is better in the dot and has a better 2 way play

If we get rid of Little the Jets become a 1 line team lol

Should be looking to move guys like buff, not trying to get rid of Little
Backasswards

Right on here with that statement- when you really think about it, there are not many second line centers in the NHL that are better than Little- "so sign him Chevy"-please do so !!! I think Chevy has made some great recruiting moves, and built in some great young talent, and would not be foolish enough to let Little go.(get it done!!!)

NOTE- Forget about all this crap he played for the Thrashers-totally irrelevant, this is a different mix of players now, with a different coach
The Jets need to sign Little- " get a solid goalie", "hire a good coach" and we'll be in the Stanley Cup final within 3 years. Just look how the Wild turned things around just by changing coaches. ( Boudreau-winning record with Anaheim, and the Wild.)-with the same players!!

 

[Puckatron 3000]

He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.

Ah, ok.

One thing I didn't understand about this "replacement" thing is that it was relative to usage. So the bar would be higher for Little than say Dano.

 

[Peggy]

Ya, the thrashers were terrible, that doesn't mean theres something wrong with every player they had. Little was drafted by them, and he's fantastic. I'm not sure what your argument is in regards to what I said, but there's no need to get rid of any "thrashers filth" like some of you say when there is none. If people think its players like Little, Wheeler and Buff (despite some of his actions) holding the team back because they played for atlanta and have a "losing mindset" as some would say, they're probably not very good at thinking. You don't get rid of these players without suitable replacements, and we have none for any of them.

Obviously there was some alright players, but so far EVERY(well almost I haven't exactly went out of my way and checked) thrashers player has been a liability in some way

Kovalchuk is/was a great player, but wasn't he asking for a lot of money or something

They've all had issues and I understand no one is perfect, but those issues have been hurting the team
They're better trading pieces than building pieces
Little and Wheeler are the only players left who are less of a liability

But with the team showing no real progression, Wheeler could be better off somewhere else

-Byfuglien plays when he wants, he's our top paid defenseman and he's not our best anymore either
Hes a 2nd pair dman who needs to be to be paid less and play less minutes

Little is a good 2c who can play 1c
If he doesn't ask for too much he's the only thrasher I'd wanna keep

I'd like to know the kind of return you could get for Wheeler
and for byfuglien

What about moving byfuglien and Petan for a LHD?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wonder how much is sustainable thouhgh. Per minute he's below Dano, and remove that PP (which is lightly over exaggerated) and he falls behind Armia per minute too.



He is putting up a below replacement impact in expected goals against relative to usage. I can't tell you why and can't tell you who is right, your eyes or the numbers. I can tell you it's at least telling you something, even if its exact estimate may be incorrect.

Byfuglien is also below replacement in EV def, and that makes sense. So maybe Little spends a lot of time with Byfuglien and it's not divvying the blame quite perfectly.

If you have been following me though, you'll see how Little started off this season fairly rough, and has been going up throughout the year.

I'm still intrigued by this. That chart generally showed us what we would expect to see. If it had been full of unexpected results we would question the method but that was not the case. "expected goals against relative to usage" is quite a mouthful. It is an aggregate of other stats and models. I wonder if looking at some simpler versions of Little's stats might explain this result? If not explain then at least confirm or deny this result.

It is possible that he is not as good defensively as we have come to believe. More likely, I think would be that he had a bad stretch of play that has affected[/] shown up in this model. It would be nice to know simply as a fact about Little. I think it would have more value as information about the usefulness of this model. If in fact it draws attention to something like a stretch of atypical performance from a player, that otherwise tends to go unnoticed, that would say pretty good things about the model.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Obviously there was some alright players, but so far EVERY(well almost I haven't exactly went out of my way and checked) thrashers player has been a liability in some way

Kovalchuk is/was a great player, but wasn't he asking for a lot of money or something

They've all had issues and I understand no one is perfect, but those issues have been hurting the team
They're better trading pieces than building pieces
Little and Wheeler are the only players left who are less of a liability

But with the team showing no real progression, Wheeler could be better off somewhere else

-Byfuglien plays when he wants, he's our top paid defenseman and he's not our best anymore either
Hes a 2nd pair dman who needs to be to be paid less and play less minutes

Little is a good 2c who can play 1c
If he doesn't ask for too much he's the only thrasher I'd wanna keep

I'd like to know the kind of return you could get for Wheeler
and for byfuglien

What about moving byfuglien and Petan for a LHD?

That may or may not be correct. It is a perception but nothing more. IF it is correct it is nothing but coincidental. There is no way on God's green Earth that it is in any way connected with their association with the Thrashers. This theme is akin to fearing black cats or the number 13.

Or, to take a completely different way of looking at it I suggest that, "so far EVERY(well almost I haven't exactly went out of my way and checked)" thrashers player in the NHL is eventually "a liability in some way".

Keep looking for flaws in human beings and you will keep finding them.

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Good for Little!

 

[pegcity]

Bump

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Bump

Why?

 

[ps241]

Love Little but he turns 30 in November so I am not interested in anything long term that impedes the cap flexibility. I don't want all three of Wheeler, Little, and Buff on 5-6 year deals that are expensive. By the time we get around to actually winning a cup (if we get in that area) these guys are all complimentary pieces and need to be paid as such.

Interesting that this was my take in March of 2017, I was obviously a bit salty with our second year in a row where we sucked ass. Not sure I am quite as bullish on my position after our breakout season but my overall sentiment still stands. One thing I do like is that the Little and Buff deals both have short windows where they are fully restricted. Bryan has this season and next under the NMC then he transitions to modified NTC and his salary back dives a bit. Buff has now exited his NMC stage and has transitioned into a modified NTC stage for the last 3 years of his deal.

We really need to be smart with Wheeler, we can't overpay a 33 year old and although it seems devastating through my July 23rd 2018 lens to flip both Trouba (for assets) and let Blake walk next July it might end up being necessary "IF WE CAN'T GET A REASONABLE DEAL DONE".

 

[Duke749]

Bump

Seriously?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Bump

WTF? Why bump this?

 

[Duke749]

WTF? Why bump this?

Starts with a “T” and rhymes with “bowling”.

 

[Deedog99]

No

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Starts with a “T” and rhythms with “bowling”.

Difference Between Rhyme and Rhythm

 

[Duke749]

Difference Between Rhyme and Rhythm

I’ll just see myself out...

 

[pegcity]

No

Yes