Should teams stop overpaying in UFA for defensemen?

TheImpatientPanther

Registered User
Jan 17, 2013
28,540
25,518
Ontario, Canada
Some owner needs to hire Rick Harrison from Pawn Stars.

Pietrangelo's agent: #1D on the market, fresh off a Cup win, 30 years of age.
We're looking in the 7 year range @ $10. 5 million

RH: ........let me call a buddy and see......I have no idea what I'm talking about

RH's expert: 6 years @ $9.5 million is fair

RH: ......best I can do is.....4 years @ $8 million
 

TheWhiskeyThief

Registered User
Dec 24, 2017
1,625
496
Based on players like Karlsson, Vlasic, Doughty, and Subban have played after signing their extensions, will teams ever decide giving defensemen these contracts just isn't worth it?
Unless they’re elite skaters, you should never sign anybody 28+ beyond a 5 year deal. Elite skaters can resist aging curves for a long time.

Karlsson’s problem was that his wheels blew a tire at the wrong time(obv not for his wallet.)

Subban had the wonky back for a while, don’t know why people didn’t run away.
 

Perfect_Drug

Registered User
Mar 24, 2006
15,530
11,825
Montreal
Fall off a cliff? C'mon, the guy posted career high in goals and points last season and is only 29 years old.
Ok ok!

Gotcha.

Lets play this fun game called:

Name me all the 30+ Centers on the scoring list, and where they are:
NHL.com Stats


You're really going to hope Tavares bucks the kinds of trends not many players have historically been able to do.
 

Devil Dancer

Registered User
Jan 21, 2006
18,458
5,445
I mostly agree, but I'm a Caps fan, and they fixed their massive D problem by signing Niskanen and Orpik as UFAs in 2014. They've been the best RS team since then, finally won a Cup, and dumped both when it became necessary so :dunno:.
 

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
15,905
10,451
UFAs of any position will always get overpaid, as it is supply and demand. Every offseason there are playoff teams that missed the boat in the playoffs as well as non playoff teams looking to improve by any means necessary and in a cap world, there is limited high end talent to fill in your big holes and many suitors trying to make it happen. Which is why guys like Jeff Skinner and similar will hit UFA and get a decent chunk of overly high offers. Same reason in the non cap world a guy like Bobby Holik somehow got 9 mil a season.
 

Cas

Conversational Black Hole
Sponsor
Jun 23, 2020
5,351
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Free agency in any sport that artificially depresses salaries for those players not yet eligible for free agency is always going to result in "overpriced" players, and players who reach free agency at a later age will tend to age more poorly than those who reach free agency at a younger age. This is just common sense. Since you can't easily acquire a superstar (drafting superstars is difficult, takes time, and other teams are in play in ways that you can't compete against - after all, if you don't pick first, you are at the mercy of other team's selections), when one is available, you will need to spend.

In the NHL, where (based on my limited experience) unrestricted free agents are pretty much limited to players in their late 20's at the youngest (save for players not considered good enough to have their RFA contracts renewed - I'm sure there are other exceptions), you are inevitably going to see many, many of those contracts wind up "overpriced." That's just baked into the cost of signing a free agent, so I don't think "overpriced" is an accurate description. If you sign a UFA, you should expect to get a few years of good performance and then a decline that you hope is graceful. A player who retains high value over the entire course of a contract is going to be so rare that such an outcome should be treated as a bonus, not an expectation.

You can choose not to play the top tier UFA game, but you're artificially limiting your options to cheaper UFAs, trades, and homegrown players. That can and does work, but sometimes the best option is to spend millions on a top quality player to round out your team. Just accept that you're going to wind up spending more money for performance than you would on a cheaper option (after all, if you had that cheaper option, you wouldn't be in the UFA market).
 

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