Should Crosby Still be #1?

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Rico Fatastic

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EroCaps said:
The RSL doesn't = the NHL. The Russians put way too much emphasis on seniority and it's a defensive league. Obscure players win scoring titles every year. Ovechkin was voted best LW in the RSL at 18 and scored for his national team at the World Cup playing 4th line minutes. It's not "nit-picking" to call you out for making statements based on flat stats, either.

If Crosby's 20 yr old season is statistically significantly better than Ovechkin's, I'll eat crow.
Pardon my cynicism, (and this is not directed at you specifically, but to anyone who will argue this point) but I suspect it is more likely that if/when Crosby's 20 year old season surpasses Ovechkin's, most will return to the tired old argument that Crosby's team is better than Ovechkin's (which will most certainly be the case 2 years from now).
 

Rico Fatastic

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Marshall said:
"which will most certainly be the case 2 years from now"

No, it won't but please explain.
I'd like to think that in 2 years the Penguins will be better than 28th in the league (the Caps' current position). But if you really want to dispute that assumption, we can certainly add you to the list of people who can "eat crow" but will probably try to find a bunch of excuses instead. Although it's probably more likely that you simply misunderstood what I was saying.
 

ZombieMatt

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I think that debates between Ovechkin and Crosby are the only time that a person will try to rationalize that there ISN'T a significant developmental gap between the ages of 18 and 20.
 

SwOOsh*

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wealthmanager said:
We are not talking the race for the Calder, we are talking prospects, and if Crosby is not #1 on the HF list I will cease to post here.
I will loose all respect for this site and it's staff.
Ovechkin's 20 year old season is not nearly as impressive as Crosby's 18 year old season.

Bye.
 

SneakerPimp82

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Okay okay, just to add some sanity to this discussion. Yes Crosby has more room to improve than Ovechkin does, that's not in question. The issue at hand is the degree to which Crosby will improve over his rookie year.

First, consider that Crosby is not the average 18 year old, he's already playing at an insanely high level. I simply don't believe that his numbers will increase by the same amount, comparatively, as does that of the average 18 year old/1st year NHL player over the course of a career. For instance, most talented rookie forwards put up 25-40 points, and eventually top out at 75-90 points in their prime. That means their point totals can almost quadruple as they develop.

Anyone expecting Crosby to even double his current point totals, as he gets older, is nuts. That means he'd be approaching 180-200 points. Crosby is already playing at a very high level, and even though he has more room to improve, he doesn't have nearly as much things to work on as the average 1st year player. Basically, he's a lot closer to his peak than most 1st year players are.

Let me recap:
1. Crosby is 18 and has a lot of room to grow.
2. Crosby is already playing at a high level, and doesn't have as many things to improve upon as a normal 1st year player.
3. Expecting Crosby to double or triple his current point totals over the course of his career, just as the normal 1st year forward does, is insane.
 

Mr.Brownov*

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SneakerPimp82 said:
Okay okay, just to add some sanity to this discussion. Yes Crosby has more room to improve than Ovechkin does, that's not in question. The issue at hand is the degree to which Crosby will improve over his rookie year.

First, consider that Crosby is not the average 18 year old, he's already playing at an insanely high level. I simply don't believe that his numbers will increase by the same amount, comparatively, as does that of the average 18 year old/1st year NHL player over the course of a career. For instance, most talented rookie forwards put up 25-40 points, and eventually top out at 75-90 points in their prime. That means their point totals can almost quadruple as they develop.

Anyone expecting Crosby to even double his current point totals, as he gets older, is nuts. That means he'd be approaching 180-200 points. Crosby is already playing at a very high level, and even though he has more room to improve, he doesn't have nearly as much things to work on as the average 1st year player. Basically, he's a lot closer to his peak than most 1st year players are.

Let me recap:
1. Crosby is 18 and has a lot of room to grow.
2. Crosby is already playing at a high level, and doesn't have as many things to improve upon as a normal 1st year player.
3. Expecting Crosby to double or triple his current point totals over the course of his career, just as the normal 1st year forward does, is insane.
Words of wisdom :clap:
 

Chimaera

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Development wise, in a purely physical sense, there is still a lot of growth from 18-20. in 2 years time, (which isn't the exact age gap, but whatever) Crosby could theoretically get stronger and taller. He should at least add more muscle mass, though him getting much taller or getting towards Ovechkin's current physical build will never occur.

The thing I'm confused about is a lot of people who are touting the age gap, and the physical development of an 18 year old versus a 20 year old, are missing the types of games each seperate player displays. Ovechkin's size and strength matter particularly more, because he is more physical. Certainly Crosby will benefit from adding more muscle, but his game is never going to be the bullish drive to the net Ovechkin's can be.

To respond to the people bringing up the jump in numbers from the 18 year old seasons to their second seasons in the NHL, numbers do not necessarily prove a point there. For some of the players listed, and others who make strides in their second seasons, most of it occurs just as much because their supporting cast improved a bit improved and their own 'experience' from having a year in the NHL. Growing in physical size and adding muscle certainly helps. But being able to do a few more crunches and pushups only helps so much. At some point in time, talent and situation take over. In Crosby's situation, is 10 more pounds really going to make that much of a difference? He still won't be 'large' by NHL standards. He won't be faster. He won't become a demon on the boards. I mean, what do you expect players to turn into Zdeno Chara's in 2 years of development? I just don't buy it. The rigors and experience (read: coaching/training) of the NHL are as much a result in the performance increase as any 10-15 pounds could be. It's not like NHL players are going to grow a third arm from years 18-20.


The irony of most of this discussion is Crosby supporters make it full well and knowing that they can say Crosby's 18 year old performance is clearly better without there being any recourse for Ovechkin. It is not Ovechkin's fault he was born late, or there was a lockout. I'm not saying he would be as good as he is now, or put up the same numbers. But there is no way to say he couldn't have at least shown a significant impact like he has had this year. He played extremely well in the RSL, decently in international tournaments, and was basically the same size he is now. If the rules had been like they are now, I think its a pretty safe bet to say he'd at least of challenged for the Calder.

What I don't get about all of this argument is why Crosby fans have to resort to defending him so adamantly on the lines of him being 'a lot younger'. Many people who are using that line of logic suggested he would be clearly better than Ovechkin prior to the season. I mean, obviously Crosby's numbers at 20 should be better than what they are now. He will have had a year and some change of experience in the NHL under his belt. I just don't get why so many have to fight tooth and nail to try and convince someone on the internet that your savior Crosby is 'disadvantaged' by his own age. He is doing a good enough job of making his own statements on the ice as it is. Both him and Ovechkin have interesting futures.
 

bigeasy

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I think they will both get better because they will have more NHL experince. To compare crosby 3rd season when he is 20-21 to ovechkin's rookie year seems to be pointless - His numbers in his 3rd year in the NHL should be better then Ovechkin's rookie year, as Ovechkin's numbers should be.

The only thing I questions about comparing either of these to guys to other 18-20 year olds is they are not usual 18-20 year old/ Rookies. If you look at other sports and compare them to other freak athletes is the only way IMO to get a fair comparison. Both Lebron James and Allen Iverson were much better in there 3rd year as opposed to the rookie years. Iverson growth was not stunted because he played a couple of years in college and entered the NBA older then James.


IMO a major factor in their development is experience so comparing them by age is not really fair, Whose to say Ovechkin what Ovechkin would have done had he been a rookie last year. I think we will have to wait 4-6 years and see where they are, and then it will still probably be a silly argument based on person preference. Much like arguing who is a better QB John Elway or Dan Marino - No one really knows the answer.
 

SneakerPimp82

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Legionnaire said:
Double or triple? Yeah, that is insane. However, improving every year, as the Penguins become his team, is well within reason.

Oh there's very little doubt that there'll be steady improvement. But some of the posts on this thread make it seem like Crosby is going to be hitting 200 points in his prime, while playing goalie, D, driving the zamboni AND selling hot dogs in the stands. I mean come on, better than Ovechkin and Malkin combined? Statements like that are what I was targeting mainly.

p.s. Ovechkin's hot dogs are plumper than Crosby's. I teed it up, someone hit it outta the park.
 

Lionel Hutz

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asab said:
... most will return to the tired old argument that Crosby's team is better than Ovechkin's (which will most certainly be the case 2 years from now).

It will be that argument, or another. The lines have been drawn, the sides picked. Now the people in the various camps will deul to the death without once recognizing that may have been a bit rash on certain issues.

If I dropped back here 2 years from now, and, for example, Crosby was driving a Zamboni in Dartmouth, there would be a faction with an argument that proves that he is still the superior talent with greater upside, and vice versa if the same happened to Ovechkin.
 

PecaFan

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Jaded-Fan said:
Of course he will get better. You all miss the point though. Think a bell curve. If you tracked the average players increase in stats, ability, etc. during his career there would be a much bigger vertical incline upward between 18 and 20, because of mostly physical, but also mental, maturation than there would be during any other period of a players' career.

And some guys are square waves, (quick rise, long steady career, sudden drop into retirement). And some guys are like Niagara Falls (appear out of nowhere, drop into oblivion). There isn't just one kind of development curve.

I've highlighted the important word in your post. We're not talking about average guys, we're talking about superstars, and they don't have normal curves. Superstars have immediate impacts, not slow rampups.

So, we don't know what kind of development curves either C or O is on. But, let's assume they're on the same one. Now, we still don't even know where either is on the curve. You can't just assume that because someone is younger that they're lower on their curve, especially for two superstars.

From what I've seen, I'd say C has been ahead on his curve for *years*, not behind. As SneakerPimp82 pointed out, that means future improvement won't be the same magnitude as others.

I think the whole age thing is blown out of proportion for these two. They're always going to be around the same.
 

ZombieMatt

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Lionel makes a good point about there being certain lines.

People are going to prefer one or the other no matter what.

With that said, I don't understand how some people can try to say there is not a significant difference between 20 and 18. Any look at the WJC (a 19 year olds tourney) or the significant gap between 20 and 18 yr olds in the CHL tells a clear story. Furthermore, why do some colleges deliberately recruit freshmen who will debut for the school at the age of 20 instead of 18, where a "normal student" would play?

There is an undeniable gap. It is not a theory.

What is open for discussion is whether or not AO will develop more between 20-21 than Sid between 18-19 or 19-20. It's not as if he's in a vacuum of development himself, and that's something Crosby fanboys often overlook.
 

Evilo

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#13 said:
IMHO Ovechkin is far more a superior player than crosby
far more?
No way.
There's a small gap right now, and I bet in ten years it's still a small gap, either in Sid's favour or Alex's.
 

theflightlessbirds

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Saying that Crosby's point total from this year could double is not insane. Other players have doubled what Crosby's presumable output has been this season. If there is one person who i wouldnt bet against it would be Sidney. This kid is amazing and has been compared to the greats in the game(most noticeably Gretzky) Gretzky and Lemieux have produced that many points. If the NHL improves on opening the game up it is a realistic possibility he could put up 180 points in a season. And yes Crosby as a prospect should be higher than AO.
 

pei fan

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Matt MacInnis said:
Lionel makes a good point about there being certain lines.

People are going to prefer one or the other no matter what.

With that said, I don't understand how some people can try to say there is not a significant difference between 20 and 18. Any look at the WJC (a 19 year olds tourney) or the significant gap between 20 and 18 yr olds in the CHL tells a clear story. Furthermore, why do some colleges deliberately recruit freshmen who will debut for the school at the age of 20 instead of 18, where a "normal student" would play?

There is an undeniable gap. It is not a theory.

What is open for discussion is whether or not AO will develop more between 20-21 than Sid between 18-19 or 19-20. It's not as if he's in a vacuum of development himself, and that's something Crosby fanboys often overlook.
They both will still develop but in a normal situation Sidney should develop considerably more but there are always exceptions.

I'd still be surprised if Crosby doesn't have the better career but i think Ovechkin will be there to make it interesting.
 

SneakerPimp82

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theflightlessbirds said:
Saying that Crosby's point total from this year could double is not insane. Other players have doubled what Crosby's presumable output has been this season. If there is one person who i wouldnt bet against it would be Sidney. This kid is amazing and has been compared to the greats in the game(most noticeably Gretzky) Gretzky and Lemieux have produced that many points. If the NHL improves on opening the game up it is a realistic possibility he could put up 180 points in a season. And yes Crosby as a prospect should be higher than AO.

this post is exactly what i'm talking about. it's almost imposible for any skater to reach anything close to the numbers Gretzky and Lemieux put up in their primes. Defensive systems are too good and players are too well coached. It's doubtful that even Gretzky could put up the same numbers today as he did in the 80s.

Again, for Crosby's point totals to double from this year's pro-rated totals he'd be at damn near 180 points, think about what you're saying here. It's not just about the NHL opening up the game, it's about teams and coaching allowing skaters to run and gun, and THAT will not be happening if that particular team can not win with that system.
 

SneakerPimp82

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pei fan said:
They both will still develop but in a normal situation Sidney should develop considerably more but there are always exceptions.

I'd still be surprised if Crosby doesn't have the better career but i think Ovechkin will be there to make it interesting.

"to make it interesting"

you're a homer and a half aren't you?
 

Lionel Hutz

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Matt MacInnis said:
With that said, I don't understand how some people can try to say there is not a significant difference between 20 and 18. Any look at the WJC (a 19 year olds tourney) or the significant gap between 20 and 18 yr olds in the CHL tells a clear story. Furthermore, why do some colleges deliberately recruit freshmen who will debut for the school at the age of 20 instead of 18, where a "normal student" would play?

There is an undeniable gap. It is not a theory.

What is open for discussion is whether or not AO will develop more between 20-21 than Sid between 18-19 or 19-20. It's not as if he's in a vacuum of development himself, and that's something Crosby fanboys often overlook.

I agree with this. As a general rule, a 20 year old is closer to a finished product than is an 18 year old. They are both going to get better, no doubt. Impossible though, to say which one (if either) will end up better.
 

Dooger

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Caniacforever said:
Eric Staal:

18 to 19 year old season: 2003-04 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 81 11 20 31 40
20 to 21 year old season: 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 57 36 39 75 46

Rick Nash:

18 to 19 year old season: 2002-03 Columbus Blue Jackets NHL 74 17 22 39 78
19 to 20 year old season: 2003-04 Columbus Blue Jackets NHL 80 41 16 57 87

Dany Heatley:

19 to 20 year old season: 2001-02 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 82 26 41 67 56
20 to 21 year old season: 2002-03 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 77 41 48 89 58


These are just a few players recently who have made big strides in their game in that age group. Staal in specific from an 18 year old player to a 20 year old player, made HUGE strides in his development.
I never said that 18-20 isn't important for ANY players. What I have been trying to say is that to generalize and say that 18-20 is the most important age for ALL or even MOST players is just plain wrong. The stats do not back it up at all. Many, many players don't hit their developmental peak until mid-20's. Heck, you can even find guys who didn't hit their stride until close to age 30. Ever hear of Robert Lang?
 
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