In order to provide an accurate comparison, I need to compare all players at the same point in time, using the same source.
For this, I went with the
NHL.com draft search. He is listed there at 6'1", 165.
Kerfoot in 2012 was at 5'9", 153. I made a mistake here, and had Kerfoot at 5'10" in my database, so you're right. His draft BMI is higher than I had; thanks for pointing it out.
The formula for BMI is simply kg/m2. For Pettersson, 74.84/(1.85^2) ~= 21.8. For Kerfoot (using the corrected height) 69.4/(1.75^2) ~= 22.7. Because I erroneously had him at 5'10" I originally had his BMI closer to Elias.
Kerfoot apparently added around 22 pounds after being drafted in 2012, as did Jarnkrok and most of the other players who are comparable. If Pettersson plays in the NHL at his current weight that will be quite unusual for a player of his height, but we already knew that and we already know that he is unusual. It is already difficult to find comparable players to him because of what he's achieved. My interest was just more in trying to see if players projected worse if they were drafted with low weights for their heights, and I didn't find that to be the case.
Thanks. Your objective makes sense. I guess your results, however, point to EP having to put on weight to be successful (as the others you have used??).
I guess I was wondering if you were using a different calculation of some sort, because the comparisons didn't seem apples to apples to me- I don't see most of those players as comparables and I have a tough tough time finding any comparable to his body type actually playing in the NHL?? I have looked and thought through this a bit too.
Regardless, I appreciate the work you put in for sure! And I think it is a really interesting thing to consider, look at, and research.
I think most of the discussion on here is centered around those who suggest EP is fine at this weight he is today in today's NHL vs others who suggest he will have to gain some weight to be successful. In looking at that argument, we would have to compare players to the height/weight he will play at today (6'2.5 as he is suggested to be now, and 167 lbs) to others who have been successful at this comparable height/weight while actually playing- don't we?
Kerfoot put on 22 lbs (as did the others, you mention). If EP did that with the right kind of weight, would people make his weight an issue? But being 4-5 inches taller, EP would have to put on more than 22 lbs to be comparable, would he not?
Unless, as mentioned, your point is, lots of players with low BMI are drafted, but then they build strength and weight and increase that BMI and have success in the NHL. I think that statement is clear. Skinny kids get drafted and they they have to work out more, mature, gain "man strength" before they can play in the NHL successfully or not. That seems pretty intuitive?
If your point is lots of payers with "low" BMI play in the NHL successfully, I am not sure about this yet. I can't find those comparable players just yet and I have not seen any suggested by those who point at small players and say, look at X, he is successful.
Regardless, EP will very likely do what those on your list have done and put on some strength over time.
The different but inherent question for me now is should he play in the NHL until he does gain this strength?
Mostly, I want him to play centre... and I would rather him do that outside the NHL while he gains this strength rather than rush him to the nil and possibly have him in another role while risking failure in his development curve, but that is for a completely other argument, a stand alone from this discussion, than the one about his strength.
And to be honest, as a fan, I want to watch the kid play as soon as possible.
Cheers