Sheldon Keefe Discussion

[IPS]

I'm not going to completely shit on Babcock, because at one time he was the right coach for the team, and IMHO he did make a lot of players better.

BUT, as time went on, you got to see more of his warts, which we will with Keefe no doubt, but the warts that Babcock was showing were ones that were stuck in the past.

In those 47 games under Keefe, with all those injuries, the team still played at over a 100 point pace, they were in the top 10 for 5 on 5 xG rates and on the penalty kill they allowed the 3rd fewest chances. Like even the penalty kill part, that's more Hakstol than Keefe, but it was Hakstol that said he went to Keefe to ask to try new things, hinting that Babcock wouldn't allow it. It's little things like that, which add up. Our PK has been trash in every playoff series under Babcock, and when you hear things like that, it just makes you shake your head.

And the first 23 games and the last 23 games are very different, and not really fair to Keefe.

Look at the injury lists these guys had to deal with...

Babcock
Hyman missed 19 games
Dermott missed 13 games
Tavares missed 7 games
Marner missed 5 games

Keefe
Mikheyev missed 31 games (all of the last 23)
Johnsson missed 27 games (12 of the last 23)
Rielly missed 23 games (22 of the last 23)
Muzzin missed 17 games (8 of the last 23)
Ceci missed 14 games (14 of the last 23)
Marner missed 6 games

Bolded the ones that clearly hurt the most. The team was doing much better under Keefe until the D started getting major injuries. We didn't have the defensive depth to cover for the bad injuries on D, that falls on Dubas - not Keefe. If you're relying on Dermott-Holl and Marincin-Barrie to get you by, you have big problems.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Actually Hutch was better under keefe. He used him properly against weaker teams etc. Injuries and Freddy struggling killed us

Here are highlights from back to back games in February 2019. The first game was when Hutchinson replaced Andersen against the Panthers in the 2nd period and blew a 3-1 in the 3rd.



This was their next game against the Rangers when Hutchinson was forced to start due to Andersen's injury and he allowed a horrible goal against in the 3rd period when the Leafs were only losing 3-2 and lost 5-3. It was after the game when Kyle Dubas makes announces the trade for Jack Campbell.

 

[Zybalto]

Gonna repost and modify some data I posted earlier for this thread.

Here are the numbers for Babcock's first 23 games:

Record:
9-10-4
Points%: .478 (19th in the NHL)

Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 2nd highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 9th highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 23rd in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 15th in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 1st in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 11th highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 15th highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 13th highest in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 23rd lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 24th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 24th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 25th lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 21st lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 24th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 24th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 7th in the league
5v5 SF%: 15th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 23rd in the league
5v5 GF%: 23rd in the league

All Situations CF%: 6th in the league
All Situations SF%: 15th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 23rd in the league
All Situations GF%: 23rd in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 23rd best in the league
All Situations save %: 23rd best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: 19th highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 26th lowest in the league
Save%: 22nd highest in the league






Not hard to see why the team struggled so much. Other than being a top possession team, they really couldn't translate that into good scoring opportunities and although they were able to create good scoring chances on the PP, they failed to convert on those chances. An even bigger problem was that team D, the PK and goaltending were all a disaster. We were all too used to the defence being a problem on this team but when the goaltending stopped bailing them out and the scoring dried up, it's no surprise to see things go south fast.





Here are the numbers the first 24 games under Keefe before Rielly went down to injury:

Record:
16-6-2
Points%: .708 (4th in the NHL)


Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 3rd highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 3rd highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 1st in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 1st in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 8th highest in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 3rd highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 2nd highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 1st in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 11th lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 12th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 18th lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 18th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 7th lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 18th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 7th in the league
5v5 SF%: 9th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 3rd in the league
5v5 GF%: 6th in the league

All Situations CF%: 9th in the league
All Situations SF%: 8th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 3rd in the league
All Situations GF%: 3rd in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 21st best in the league
All Situations save %: 18th best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: Highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 15th lowest in the league
Save%: 21st highest in the league






Outside of goaltending, everything about the team dramatically improved under Keefe combining all of a sudden great special teams numbers, the highest scoring team in the league and unusually solid team D numbers not seen under Babcock. To be 3rd in goal differential during this stretch with below-average goaltending is crazy.






Final 23 games:

Record:

11-9-3 (although 3 of their wins were against the cup finalists 2xTB and 1xStars)
Points%: .543 (17th in the NHL)

This period was the worst time for injuries with both Rielly and Muzzin (our top 2 D) down with injury and then losing Ceci as well on a team already thin on D depth.

Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 17th highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 21st highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 6th highest in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 20th highest in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 15th highest in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 18th highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 6th highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 16th in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 10th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 13th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 12th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 10th lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 18th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 13th in the league
5v5 SF%: 14th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 12th in the league
5v5 GF%: 23rd in the league

All Situations CF%: 13th in the league
All Situations SF%: 13th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 7th in the league
All Situations GF%: 17th in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 26th best in the league
All Situations save %: 20th best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: 11th highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 9th lowest in the league
Save%: 15th highest in the league




The team D (including the PK) looks like it held up its solid play the final 23 which is the mark of an excellent system put in by Keefe and company but no Muzzin and especially no Rielly really hurt the Leafs offence IMO. It doesn't explain away all of the offensive woes of course as a couple of our top guys were in obvious slumps as well but it certainly made a difference.

Goaltending, of course, was still the massive issue.

Sorry about the massive wall of text folks and these small sample sizes arnt the end all/be all of course. There is a ton of room for optimism in those D numbers since the coaching change to be sure though.

 

[X66]

Bolded the ones that clearly hurt the most. The team was doing much better under Keefe until the D started getting major injuries. We didn't have the defensive depth to cover for the bad injuries on D, that falls on Dubas - not Keefe. If you're relying on Dermott-Holl and Marincin-Barrie to get you by, you have big problems.

And it might not be popular to say, but even losing Ceci to injury hurt.

He was another 20 minute a night dman, that played really tough minutes.

Very few teams can play amazing without three 20 minute dmen out of the line-up, and the Leafs were still above water(barely).

That's why I have a tough time blaming Dubas for that, especially because without Barrie and those injuries, our season would have been completely lost. Barrie helped us a lot more than he got credit for last year, but I'm glad we upgraded with Brodie.

 

[ToneDog]

Gonna repost and modify some data I posted earlier for this thread.

Here are the numbers for Babcock's first 23 games:

Record:
9-10-4
Points%: .478 (19th in the NHL)

Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 2nd highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 9th highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 23rd in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 15th in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 1st in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 11th highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 15th highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 13th highest in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 23rd lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 24th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 24th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 25th lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 21st lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 24th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 24th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 7th in the league
5v5 SF%: 15th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 23rd in the league
5v5 GF%: 23rd in the league

All Situations CF%: 6th in the league
All Situations SF%: 15th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 23rd in the league
All Situations GF%: 23rd in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 23rd best in the league
All Situations save %: 23rd best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: 19th highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 26th lowest in the league
Save%: 22nd highest in the league






Not hard to see why the team struggled so much. Other than being a top possession team, they really couldn't translate that into good scoring opportunities and although they were able to create good scoring chances on the PP, they failed to convert on those chances. An even bigger problem was that team D, the PK and goaltending were all a disaster. We were all too used to the defence being a problem on this team but when the goaltending stopped bailing them out and the scoring dried up, it's no surprise to see things go south fast.





Here are the numbers the first 24 games under Keefe before Rielly went down to injury:

Record:
16-6-2
Points%: .708 (4th in the NHL)


Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 3rd highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 3rd highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 1st in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 1st in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 8th highest in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 3rd highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 2nd highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 1st in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 11th lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 12th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 18th lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 18th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 7th lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 18th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 7th in the league
5v5 SF%: 9th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 3rd in the league
5v5 GF%: 6th in the league

All Situations CF%: 9th in the league
All Situations SF%: 8th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 3rd in the league
All Situations GF%: 3rd in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 21st best in the league
All Situations save %: 18th best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: Highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 15th lowest in the league
Save%: 21st highest in the league






Outside of goaltending, everything about the team dramatically improved under Keefe combining all of a sudden great special teams numbers, the highest scoring team in the league and unusually solid team D numbers not seen under Babcock. To be 3rd in goal differential during this stretch with below-average goaltending is crazy.






Final 23 games:

Record:

11-9-3 (although 3 of their wins were against the cup finalists 2xTB and 1xStars)
Points%: .543 (17th in the NHL)

This period was the worst time for injuries with both Rielly and Muzzin (our top 2 D) down with injury and then losing Ceci as well on a team already thin on D depth.

Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 17th highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 21st highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 6th highest in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 20th highest in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 15th highest in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 18th highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 6th highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 16th in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 10th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 13th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 12th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 10th lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 18th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 13th in the league
5v5 SF%: 14th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 12th in the league
5v5 GF%: 23rd in the league

All Situations CF%: 13th in the league
All Situations SF%: 13th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 7th in the league
All Situations GF%: 17th in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 26th best in the league
All Situations save %: 20th best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: 11th highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 9th lowest in the league
Save%: 15th highest in the league




The team D (including the PK) looks like it held up its solid play the final 23 which is the mark of an excellent system put in by Keefe and company but no Muzzin and especially no Rielly really hurt the Leafs offence IMO. It doesn't explain away all of the offensive woes of course as a couple of our top guys were in obvious slumps as well but it certainly made a difference.

Goaltending, of course, was still the massive issue.

Sorry about the massive wall of text folks and these small sample sizes arnt the end all/be all of course. There is a ton of room for optimism in those D numbers since the coaching change to be sure though.

You are comparing a team that clearly had checked out on Babcock to one that became highly motivated after Babs was replaced with Keefe. With the team now having played half a season under Keefe, we should get a truer indication of what this team is really made of.

 

[LeafsNation75]

And it might not be popular to say, but even losing Ceci to injury hurt.

He was another 20 minute a night dman, that played really tough minutes.

Very few teams can play amazing without three 20 minute dmen out of the line-up, and the Leafs were still above water(barely).

That's why I have a tough time blaming Dubas for that, especially because without Barrie and those injuries, our season would have been completely lost. Barrie helped us a lot more than he got credit for last year, but I'm glad we upgraded with Brodie.

I wonder how things change for Barrie if Keefe is coaching him from their 1st game instead of their 24th game after he took over from Babcock.

 

[ToneDog]

I wonder how things change for Barrie if Keefe is coaching him from their 1st game instead of their 24th game after he took over from Babcock.

Spezza did fine after having gone through similar Babcock BS. It sounds like the Oilers will allow Barrie to play to his strengths. Let's see if he rebounds. For me gone and forgotten. Long live Brodie.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Spezza did fine after having gone through similar Babcock BS. It sounds like the Oilers will allow Barrie to play to his strengths. Let's see if he rebounds. For me gone and forgotten. Long live Brodie.

The difference is Toronto thought they were getting the Tyson Barrie who had 59 points with Colorado during the 2018-19 season.

No one expected Jason Spezza to get 34 goals, 58 assists, and 92 points like he did during the 2007-08 season.

 

[Zybalto]

Even if Keefe was coach from the start, does anyone really trust Barrie against other teams 1st/2nd lines?

Offensive Dman who needs to be sheltered or he gets exposed at the back.

Theres a reason he was on the bottom pairing against the Jackets and it was the right decision. He was given all the opportunity in the world too and was paired with Muzzin and Rielly for long stretches.

I actually didnt mind him with Rielly during the regular season as Keefe would use them to exploit some of the weaker defensive teams while Muzzin/Holl played shutdown but he was just too scary to trust in the playoffs.

 

[crump]

Bolded the ones that clearly hurt the most. The team was doing much better under Keefe until the D started getting major injuries. We didn't have the defensive depth to cover for the bad injuries on D, that falls on Dubas - not Keefe. If you're relying on Dermott-Holl and Marincin-Barrie to get you by, you have big problems.

It’s not a good sign when you miss Cody Ceci. Those injuries to Reilly and Muzzin were telling.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Even if Keefe was coach from the start, does anyone really trust Barrie against other teams 1st/2nd lines?

Offensive Dman who needs to be sheltered or he gets exposed at the back.

Theres a reason he was on the bottom pairing against the Jackets and it was the right decision. He was given all the opportunity in the world too and was paired with Muzzin and Rielly for long stretches.

I actually didnt mind him with Rielly during the regular season as Keefe would use them to exploit some of the weaker defensive teams while Muzzin/Holl played shutdown but he was just too scary to trust in the playoffs.

Barrie looked a lot better during Keefe's first three games and I don't think it was a coincidence he scored goals in those games.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

The rest will fall in to place and every bit of it is on the players. They need to act like a team.

You're 100% correct on this. The players almost seemed like a weight had been lifted off of them when the coach was let go. The stories that followed sort of solidified the fact that the players felt like they were in handcuffs. It's now up to them, under a coach that lets them go, and gives them that extra ice that they crave, to start showing results.
The lack of wins in the first part of last season was pinned on Babcock. The next group of struggles was pinned on poor goaltending and injuries. Going forward, it has to fall squarely on the players shoulders.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Keefe is safe.

Yeah I'm not sure he is, because I'm not sure Dubas is, if the Leafs don't make progress this year, and progress means NOT losing in round 1 again, then I don't think it's crazy to think Dubas could be fired, if that happens a new GM could mean a new coach.

They HAVE to make progress this year.

Losing in round 1 is no longer acceptable

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yeah I'm not sure he is, because I'm not sure Dubas is

Both are safe.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Both are safe.

I don't know that they are they can't keep losing in round 1 that's not good enough anymore

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I don't know that they are they can't keep losing in round 1 that's not good enough anymore

The next 1st round loss is on the players.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The next 1st round loss is on the players.

Why not the people that picked the players?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Why not the people that picked the players?

If it's not on the players now, when is it? After two coaches are fired? A Gm and two coaches? 8 trainers, a goalie coach and a scouting staff?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If it's not on the players now, when is it? After two coaches are fired? A Gm and two coaches? 8 trainers, a goalie coach and a scouting staff?

Management picks the players if the team keeps failing that means you picked the wrong players.

 

[meefer]

I don’t necessarily disagree, but if the players can’t get it done, that means management signed the wrong ones, righ?

Sometimes the right ingredients don't fit together if the mix is wrong. For the most part, I agree with your view. However, is it not fair to say that many in the hockey community admire the talent on our team? Just as our management does. I like the talent, if it doesn't jell, I feel it's on the players, no excuses. You(?), others may think management.

At risk of stating a subject that shouldn't be contentious, firing Keefe wouldn't likely accomplish anything.

The impact of a coach on the outcome of a season is minimal at best. The Leafs have over 17 different coaches, analysts and consultants. That's in addition to any other ones that the players have on their own (eg. a psychologist or performance folks).

I wholeheartedly agree that performance is on the players. A healthy and talented roster should perform to expectations.

It is however fair to question whether the collection of players assembled is the right one. And if it's not, can management make the proper moves to provide the right mix.

To answer that one, you need to look well above the coaching ranks.

Absolutely fair comment, as is what follows. My comments are made based on my belief that this team's players are the right ones based on talent. Dubas and Lou are largely responsible for the players on the team (is Rielly the last of Burke's additions?), so while not perfect, I trust Dubas can adjust the mix as required. Essentially, I see no reason why this team shouldn't jell. I like the mix. 7 top end players who would fit on any teams top two lines or D pairings. 7 or 8 players most teams would be happy to mix in on lines 2-4. 6 players who are adequately established, have upside, are young and talented or grizzled and hungry. We have a taxi squad where I think 1/2/3 of the players can contribute, and that some other teams would be happy to have in their systems. Do they take to each other? I think they should, and I see no reason they shouldn't. If they don't, Dubas will have his work cut out for him. And then we'll both know whether he was the right man for the job.

I honesty find the Keefe backing to be a steaming pile of hypocrite( this is directed to those in general)

Babcock got roasted and eventually fired for losing in game 7 to the Eastern champs,,in many eyes here "the was not good enough" yada BS, yada BS

King Quiff can't even qualify for the playoffs thanks to a pretty damn feeble team,as we saw Columbus get quickly booted from the real playoffs.

Kinda funny how the big blue gets a time laps reset as long as they fire someone folks are crying about.

Keefe let them play the hockey "THEY" want , so they came off strike and we saw a short bump

When it came time to play the style Babs was forcing on them (PO style hockey) they folded like a wet suit against a mediocre team. Keefes style is not PO hockey.

We are really looking like the Capitals of 10 years ago,,,, when they had high octane rosters with
ovi 50g
semin 40g
backstrom 33g
green PPG

2nd line 3 ,23+ goal forwards.

lots of ooooohhhhh ahhhhhh in the reg season,,,,, and crap come man up time.

While I respect that people value different styles of management and coaching, it takes a special type of obstinate viewpoint to ignore so many discussions that help explain why things went south. Yes, it was a bad and disappointing year, we get it. But, when they played better under Keefe than Babcock, when Dubas appears to have provided us with a D corp better than we've seen in years, when balance and maturity and guidance seems to be higher than last year...do these additions not provide you with some hope?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

You're 100% correct on this. The players almost seemed like a weight had been lifted off of them when the coach was let go. The stories that followed sort of solidified the fact that the players felt like they were in handcuffs. It's now up to them, under a coach that lets them go, and gives them that extra ice that they crave, to start showing results.
The lack of wins in the first part of last season was pinned on Babcock. The next group of struggles was pinned on poor goaltending and injuries. Going forward, it has to fall squarely on the players shoulders.

5 years together as what was once a young core. They aren’t entitled to being considered young now. I give a pass as learning curve up to now. As of now they have full expectations to play to not only their talent level but as a complete unit thats on the same page and sacrifices whatever it takes personally for the team to win. That means play smart.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Gonna repost and modify some data I posted earlier for this thread.

Here are the numbers for Babcock's first 23 games:

Record:
9-10-4
Points%: .478 (19th in the NHL)

Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 2nd highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 9th highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 23rd in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 15th in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 1st in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 11th highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 15th highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 13th highest in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 23rd lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 24th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 24th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 25th lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 21st lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 24th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 24th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 7th in the league
5v5 SF%: 15th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 23rd in the league
5v5 GF%: 23rd in the league

All Situations CF%: 6th in the league
All Situations SF%: 15th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 23rd in the league
All Situations GF%: 23rd in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 23rd best in the league
All Situations save %: 23rd best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: 19th highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 26th lowest in the league
Save%: 22nd highest in the league






Not hard to see why the team struggled so much. Other than being a top possession team, they really couldn't translate that into good scoring opportunities and although they were able to create good scoring chances on the PP, they failed to convert on those chances. An even bigger problem was that team D, the PK and goaltending were all a disaster. We were all too used to the defence being a problem on this team but when the goaltending stopped bailing them out and the scoring dried up, it's no surprise to see things go south fast.





Here are the numbers the first 24 games under Keefe before Rielly went down to injury:

Record:
16-6-2
Points%: .708 (4th in the NHL)


Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 3rd highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 3rd highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 1st in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 1st in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 8th highest in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 3rd highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 2nd highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 1st in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 11th lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 12th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 18th lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 18th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 7th lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 18th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 7th in the league
5v5 SF%: 9th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 3rd in the league
5v5 GF%: 6th in the league

All Situations CF%: 9th in the league
All Situations SF%: 8th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 3rd in the league
All Situations GF%: 3rd in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 21st best in the league
All Situations save %: 18th best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: Highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 15th lowest in the league
Save%: 21st highest in the league






Outside of goaltending, everything about the team dramatically improved under Keefe combining all of a sudden great special teams numbers, the highest scoring team in the league and unusually solid team D numbers not seen under Babcock. To be 3rd in goal differential during this stretch with below-average goaltending is crazy.






Final 23 games:

Record:

11-9-3 (although 3 of their wins were against the cup finalists 2xTB and 1xStars)
Points%: .543 (17th in the NHL)

This period was the worst time for injuries with both Rielly and Muzzin (our top 2 D) down with injury and then losing Ceci as well on a team already thin on D depth.

Offence:
5v5 Corsi for/60: 17th highest in the league
5v5 Shots for/60: 21st highest in the league
5v5 expected goals for/60: 6th highest in the league
5v5 goals for/60: 20th highest in the league

All Situations Corsi for/60: 15th highest in the league
All Situations Shots for/60: 18th highest in the league
All Situations expected goals for/60: 6th highest in the league
All Situations goals for/60: 16th in the league


Defence:
5v5 Corsi Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
5v5 Shots Against/60: 10th lowest in the league
5v5 expected goals against/60: 13th lowest in the league
5v5 goals against/60: 22nd lowest in the league

All Situations Corsi Against/60: 16th lowest in the league
All Situations Shots Against/60: 12th lowest in the league
All Situations expected goals against/60: 10th lowest in the league
All Situations goals against/60: 18th lowest in the league


Combined:
5v5 CF%: 13th in the league
5v5 SF%: 14th in the league
5v5 : xGF%: 12th in the league
5v5 GF%: 23rd in the league

All Situations CF%: 13th in the league
All Situations SF%: 13th in the league
All Situations xGF%: 7th in the league
All Situations GF%: 17th in the league

Goaltending:
5v5 save %: 26th best in the league
All Situations save %: 20th best in the league


Powerplay:

Goals for/60: 11th highest in the league

PK:

Goals against/60: 9th lowest in the league
Save%: 15th highest in the league




The team D (including the PK) looks like it held up its solid play the final 23 which is the mark of an excellent system put in by Keefe and company but no Muzzin and especially no Rielly really hurt the Leafs offence IMO. It doesn't explain away all of the offensive woes of course as a couple of our top guys were in obvious slumps as well but it certainly made a difference.

Goaltending, of course, was still the massive issue.

Sorry about the massive wall of text folks and these small sample sizes arnt the end all/be all of course. There is a ton of room for optimism in those D numbers since the coaching change to be sure though.

Awesome repost thanks

 

[Dreakmur]

Sometimes the right ingredients don't fit together if the mix is wrong. For the most part, I agree with your view. However, is it not fair to say that many in the hockey community admire the talent on our team? Just as our management does. I like the talent, if it doesn't jell, I feel it's on the players, no excuses. You(?), others may think management.

Yes, I think everyone would agree that we have one of the most talented groups in the league. The most talented group on paper is very rarely the best team on the ice.

Different game situations call for certain skillsets and mentalities. That's where I think this group has been lacking. I do think Dubas learned from that, and took steps to address those problems this summer, but I still see some substantial holes.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Why not the people that picked the players?

I would say its a bit of both. Dubas has admitted that he underestimated the importance of having grit and leadership. Obviously this team was lacking certain role type players but we've seen Dubas shuffle the deck a few times now. This year being a little more old school adding a gritty balls to the wall type power forward in Simmonds, a big ,mean stay at home defender in Bogosian, a big, outspoken leader in Thornton who can play mean and a solid defensive player in Brodie. If we go a 5th year without advancing with the same core of players that have gone through 2 GMs, 2 coaches and many changes to supporting players, at some point its on them to get the job done. Marner, Tavares and Andersen need to be better and show why they get paid the big bucks.

If we lose in round 1 again, I don't think he is fired yet but I think he will be put on notice. If this happens I could see a Derozan kind of trade to shake the team. If that doesn't work then Dubas is likely fired.

 

[meefer]

Yes, I think everyone would agree that we have one of the most talented groups in the league. The most talented group on paper is very rarely the best team on the ice.

Different game situations call for certain skillsets and mentalities. That's where I think this group has been lacking. I do think Dubas learned from that, and took steps to address those problems this summer, but I still see some substantial holes.

What would those holes be, and might they be lessened if this team's character became an asset?