Ordinarily, I might agree. But in his case, put that on the count that his faults (lacking in smarts) pushed him back in an
almighty draft
The kind of prospects that fell in the 2003 draft despite oozing with potential might not have fallen in a thinner year. GMs saw Belle with all his awesome potential as you just said. Then they probably had the concerns you mentioned. Then they saw there were other players oozing with potential up for grab and they went for it.
I don't think he is as dumb with the puck as you say. I've seen better but I have noticed improvements last year and I notice some this year. I disagree with you that he has virtually no chance. I would rank his chances at over 50%. So I think he will probably be a NHLer.
He is slightly different from the two players I am about to name but has similar issues: Jeff Jillson and David Tanabe. IMO, he can and will be better than both. That being said, the chance he will develop his full-blown 1st pairing potential and become a sort of Jovanovski is fairly thin. But 2nd or 3rd pairing, I think he will make it. Still carries some risk, though. Not a safe bet at all.
True, Belle was 30th overall but man, that first round kicks some ass! In fact, there are already several quality prospects emerging from the 2nd round down. More than usual, IMO.