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Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info/Discussion Thread XIV

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CaptainShark

CaptainShark

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Sep 25, 2004
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Rough night for some CHL-Sharks:

Gregor 1a, -2 in a 7-3 win
Merkley an assist on the PP and -3 in a 7-2 loss
Edmond pulled after giving up 4 goals on 11 shots
Blichfeld with an assist -3 in a 5-4 win
Chekhovich 2a, +1 2nd star in a 2-1 win
Chmelevski with 1g, 1a in a 5-3 loss
Bonus: Kotkov 2g, 1a, +3 in a 7-0 win
 
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wishman

wishman

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Jan 20, 2007
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Paywall but good things to say about Merkley (#15) and Chmelevski (#54). Korenar also gets HM. Really surprised that he has Merkley as 3rd best D-prospect after Hughes and Makar.

 
hohosaregood

hohosaregood

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wishman said:
Paywall but good things to say about Merkley (#15) and Chmelevski (#54). Korenar also gets HM. Really surprised that he has Merkley as 3rd best D-prospect after Hughes and Makar.

Click to expand...

Pretty interesting rating for Merkley. I end up lurking the Guelph/Peterborough boards and those guys super do not like Merkley and he's had pretty mediocre numbers since going to Peterborough. Not to mention all the hype for other defensive prospects.
 
one2gamble

one2gamble

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Dec 24, 2007
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hohosaregood said:
Pretty interesting rating for Merkley. I end up lurking the Guelph/Peterborough boards and those guys super do not like Merkley and he's had pretty mediocre numbers since going to Peterborough. Not to mention all the hype for other defensive prospects.
Click to expand...
I think merkley needs a different challenge if that makes any sense. I hope the sharks stay on top of him to keep him motivated
 
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wishman

wishman

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Part funny / part sad reading Scott Wheeler's tweets regarding Merkley playing against his old team tonight.
 
neelynugs

neelynugs

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Feb 27, 2002
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at midseason, how do you rank your top 10 prospects?
and biggest surprise this year? biggest riser? biggest disappointment?
 
The Nemesis

The Nemesis

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Just for kicks I dug out a prospect ranking model I tinkered with last year and ran it on the current prospect class. The basic gist of the model is to control for competition/talent differences in various leagues and some positional difference (fwd vs def) and rank on point production.

The model is likely broken/flawed beyond any real usefulness given both a lack of some functions (I haven't yet controlled for age the way I want to. Not every league is included and thus Linus Karlsson goes unranked because I lack Allsvenskan and SHLJ20 inputs. I'd prefer to have it weight multiple seasons to control for spikes and swoons) and limitations of methodology (basing this on PPG is limited since scoring isn't everything depending on expected role/play style. I suspect this thing will vastly underrate future bottom 6/bottom pairing guys and place them well below guys who top out as quad-A type NHL non-factors, it's admittedly kludged together from about 5 different major sources of data and concepts which may not be 100% compatible and a couple of big assumptions and estimations on my part), but I was curious to see what it said about the current crop of Sharks prospects and their seasons-to-date:

The 32 eligible ranked players are, ordered from best to worst:
1) Merkley, Ryan (D/Peterborough[OHL])



2) Blichfeld, Joachim (LW/Portland[WHL])
3) Chekhovich, Ivan (LW/Baie-Comeau[QMJHL])



4) DeSimone, Nick (D/San Jose[AHL])
5) Gregor, Noah (C/Prince Albert[WHL])
6) Wood, Kyle (D/San Jose[AHL])
7) Perron, Francis (LW/San Jose[AHL])
8) Leonard, John (LW/UMass[NCAA])

9) Chmelevski, Sasha (C/Ottawa[OHL])
10) Dognahey, Cody (D/Orlando[ECHL])
11) Gambrell, Dylan (C/San Jose[AHL])
12) True, Alexander (C/San Jose[AHL])



13) Brodzinski, Michael (D/Orlando[ECHL])


14) Middleton, Jacob (D/San Jose[AHL])
15) Roy, Jeremy (D/San Jose[AHL])
16) McGrew, Jake (RW/Spokane[WHL])
17) Halbgewachs, Jayden (C/San Jose[AHL])

18) Praplan, Vincent (C/San Jose[AHL])
19) Kotkov, Vlad (LW/Chicoutimi[QMJHL])
20) Suomela, Anti (C/San Jose[AHL])
21) Martin, Jon (RW/San Jose[AHL])
22) Cukste, Karlis (D/Quinnipiac[NCAA])
23) Chartier, Rourke (C/San Jose[AHL])
24) Letunov, Maxim (C/San Jose[AHL])
25) Wiederer, Manuel (C/San Jose[AHL])
26) Ferraro, Mario (D/UMass[NCAA])


27) Vela, Marcus (C/UNH[NCAA])
28) Schoenborn, Alex (RW/Orlando[ECHL])


29) Fitzgerald, Cavan (D/San Jose[AHL])
30) Reedy, Scott (C/Minnesota[NCAA])
31) Jackson, Jake (LW/Michigan Tech[NCAA])






32) Weatherby, Jasper (C/UND[NCAA])
-------------------------------------------------
Spaces are rough representations of where the gaps exist in the prospects' scores. And as I said above, Linus Karlsson is not listed here due to difficulty in integrating his data from the Allsvenskan and J20 leagues

I will say that for the most part it's what I'd expect to see relative to prospect expectations and performance.

Merkley, Blichfeld, and Checkhovich are clearly the 3 most impressive seasons, with Merkely comfortably out in front and the other two putting up very fine CHL seasons both at age 20 right now (Checkhovich just turned 20 after the new year, so this is only his age 19 season, but he's actually about 1/2 year younger than Blichfeld)

DeSimone and Wood are perhaps the shock names up this high, but they're the leading D scorers on the Cuda in a model that rewards d-men for putting up points more than forwards and that views AHL #s as more impressive than amateur ones. Both are about 0.65 PPG in the AHL, which is solid for a blueliner. Make no mistake though, there is a noticeable gap from them up to the top 3. Gregor is also in this group having a good-but-not-great over-age season with the WHL's Prince Albert Raiders (arguably the best team in the CHL this year). If there's a more positive spin, it's that this is a step up from his age 18 and 19 seasons, and possibly significant enough to offset the age advantage. Perron is leading the Cuda and Leonard has been noted all year as having a good season at the NCAA level.

The last couple spots in the top 10 go to Chmelevski, who's still having a good season, and a better one than he did last year in terms of production, he's just been passed by several other players having better years this season, and perhaps the biggest outlier in this set: Cody Dognahey. Dognahey is putting up decent ECHL numbers, but it's the ECHL and that was something I had to fudge a bit when I was building the model, so I suspect this is more of a sign that my ECHL setup is out of whack than it is him truly having a worthwhile prospect year. If we push him aside, then it's Gambrell and True that would slide up into the last spot in a virtual tie.

The bottom of the barrel is a little more interesting. Jasper Weatherby is having an awful season to earn the dubious last-place honors. Jackson, Schoenborn, Vela, and Fitzgerald are unsurprising placers in this group as either a non-scoring blueliner or fading non-prospects. Wiederer seems to get some run in with the Cuda, but he really hasn't impressed as a pro in terms of scoring. The interesting names are Letunov, who's off to a rough pro start with the Cuda and who has seen his offence dip from its collegiate pace (both in terms of raw output and translated pace) and Ferraro, who has just 7 points in 20 games and has seen his PPG nearly halved with UMass after his breakout 17-18 campaign. Chartier being near the bottom is a model quirk too, mostly owing to having spent much of the year in the NHL with no production to speak of.

I don't expect this is anything more than just an idle bit of curiosity, but I ran the numbers so I figured it was worth a look for now. I'm still hoping that eventually I can add some of the other bells and whistles I want, smooth out some of the rough edges, and end up with something that at least creates halfway interesting discussion when it comes to prospects (Because in spite of this data, I am a firm believer that stat-line scouting is a terrible idea, and that even saying "Well, nobody who's ever produced at X rate or lower has ever been an NHL regular" as an absolute is a foolish endeavor. There's value in the numbers to fill in holes and show you where you might be looking in the wrong place or have your eyes lying to you, but the best scouting should always be a solid mix of qual and quant.)

I may, every so often, run the numbers again and see how things change as the rest of the season progresses. That movement is, to me, more interesting than just a solitary snapshot of one point in time.
 
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Fistfullofbeer

Fistfullofbeer

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May 9, 2011
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The Nemesis said:
Just for kicks I dug out a prospect ranking model I tinkered with last year and ran it on the current prospect class. The basic gist of the model is to control for competition/talent differences in various leagues and some positional difference (fwd vs def) and rank on point production.

The model is likely broken/flawed beyond any real usefulness given both a lack of some functions (I haven't yet controlled for age the way I want to. Not every league is included and thus Linus Karlsson goes unranked because I lack Allsvenskan and SHLJ20 inputs. I'd prefer to have it weight multiple seasons to control for spikes and swoons) and limitations of methodology (basing this on PPG is limited since scoring isn't everything depending on expected role/play style. I suspect this thing will vastly underrate future bottom 6/bottom pairing guys and place them well below guys who top out as quad-A type NHL non-factors, it's admittedly kludged together from about 5 different major sources of data and concepts which may not be 100% compatible and a couple of big assumptions and estimations on my part), but I was curious to see what it said about the current crop of Sharks prospects and their seasons-to-date:

The 32 eligible ranked players are, ordered from best to worst:
1) Merkley, Ryan (D/Peterborough[OHL])



2) Blichfeld, Joachim (LW/Portland[WHL])
3) Chekhovich, Ivan (LW/Baie-Comeau[QMJHL])



4) DeSimone, Nick (D/San Jose[AHL])
5) Gregor, Noah (C/Prince Albert[WHL])
6) Wood, Kyle (D/San Jose[AHL])
7) Perron, Francis (LW/San Jose[AHL])
8) Leonard, John (LW/UMass[NCAA])

9) Chmelevski, Sasha (C/Ottawa[OHL])
10) Dognahey, Cody (D/Orlando[ECHL])
11) Gambrell, Dylan (C/San Jose[AHL])
12) True, Alexander (C/San Jose[AHL])



13) Brodzinski, Michael (D/Orlando[ECHL])


14) Middleton, Jacob (D/San Jose[AHL])
15) Roy, Jeremy (D/San Jose[AHL])
16) McGrew, Jake (RW/Spokane[WHL])
17) Halbgewachs, Jayden (C/San Jose[AHL])

18) Praplan, Vincent (C/San Jose[AHL])
19) Kotkov, Vlad (LW/Chicoutimi[QMJHL])
20) Suomela, Anti (C/San Jose[AHL])
21) Martin, Jon (RW/San Jose[AHL])
22) Cukste, Karlis (D/Quinnipiac[NCAA])
23) Chartier, Rourke (C/San Jose[AHL])
24) Letunov, Maxim (C/San Jose[AHL])
25) Wiederer, Manuel (C/San Jose[AHL])
26) Ferraro, Mario (D/UMass[NCAA])


27) Vela, Marcus (C/UNH[NCAA])
28) Schoenborn, Alex (RW/Orlando[ECHL])


29) Fitzgerald, Cavan (D/San Jose[AHL])
30) Reedy, Scott (C/Minnesota[NCAA])
31) Jackson, Jake (LW/Michigan Tech[NCAA])






32) Weatherby, Jasper (C/UND[NCAA])
-------------------------------------------------
Spaces are rough representations of where the gaps exist in the prospects' scores. And as I said above, Linus Karlsson is not listed here due to difficulty in integrating his data from the Allsvenskan and J20 leagues

I will say that for the most part it's what I'd expect to see relative to prospect expectations and performance.

Merkley, Blichfeld, and Checkhovich are clearly the 3 most impressive seasons, with Merkely comfortably out in front and the other two putting up very fine CHL seasons both at age 20 right now (Checkhovich just turned 20 after the new year, so this is only his age 19 season, but he's actually about 1/2 year younger than Blichfeld)

DeSimone and Wood are perhaps the shock names up this high, but they're the leading D scorers on the Cuda in a model that rewards d-men for putting up points more than forwards and that views AHL #s as more impressive than amateur ones. Both are about 0.65 PPG in the AHL, which is solid for a blueliner. Make no mistake though, there is a noticeable gap from them up to the top 3. Gregor is also in this group having a good-but-not-great over-age season with the WHL's Prince Albert Raiders (arguably the best team in the CHL this year). If there's a more positive spin, it's that this is a step up from his age 18 and 19 seasons, and possibly significant enough to offset the age advantage. Perron is leading the Cuda and Leonard has been noted all year as having a good season at the NCAA level.

The last couple spots in the top 10 go to Chmelevski, who's still having a good season, and a better one than he did last year in terms of production, he's just been passed by several other players having better years this season, and perhaps the biggest outlier in this set: Cody Dognahey. Dognahey is putting up decent ECHL numbers, but it's the ECHL and that was something I had to fudge a bit when I was building the model, so I suspect this is more of a sign that my ECHL setup is out of whack than it is him truly having a worthwhile prospect year. If we push him aside, then it's Gambrell and True that would slide up into the last spot in a virtual tie.

The bottom of the barrel is a little more interesting. Jasper Weatherby is having an awful season to earn the dubious last-place honors. Jackson, Schoenborn, Vela, and Fitzgerald are unsurprising placers in this group as either a non-scoring blueliner or fading non-prospects. Wiederer seems to get some run in with the Cuda, but he really hasn't impressed as a pro in terms of scoring. The interesting names are Letunov, who's off to a rough pro start with the Cuda and who has seen his offence tip from its collegiate pace (both in terms of raw output and translated pace) and Ferraro, who has just 7 points in 20 games and has seen his PPG nearly halved with UMass.

I don't expect this is anything more than just an idle bit of curiosity, but I ran the numbers so I figured it was worth a look for now. I'm still hoping that eventually I can add some of the other bells and whistles I want, smooth out some of the rough edges, and end up with something that at least creates halfway interesting discussion when it comes to prospects (Because in spite of this data, I am a firm believer that stat-line scouting is a terrible idea, and that even saying "Well, nobody who's ever produced at X rate or lower has ever been an NHL regular" as an absolute is a foolish endeavor. There's value in the numbers to fill in holes and show you where you might be looking in the wrong place or have your eyes lying to you, but the best scouting should always be a solid mix of qual and quant.)

I may, every so often, run the numbers again and see how things change as the rest of the season progresses.
Click to expand...
Awesome dude! This is very good stuff. Just glanced but will give it a detailed read later and hopefully post some useful comment(s).
 
The Nemesis

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
88,234
31,602
Langley, BC
In other, slightly unrelated news, I'll be getting my first (and only. and thus last ever unless there's a miracle Vancouver/Prince Albert WHL final) live look at Gregor next week when the Raiders visit on Thursday.
 
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