GDT: Sharks @ Minnesota 5pm PST

Doctor Soraluce

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Sep 28, 2017
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Pretty crucial victory, considering Calgary's softball schedule the next two games.

Hopefully we're in the early stages of a Jones hot streak that lasts until roughly the second week of June.
Not the early stages... He's been there for a while apparently. He's given up 2 goals or less in 10 of his last 15 starts. I'd say he's figured it out for the most part. He does that in the playoffs and the Sharks should go on a long run.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/sharks/martin-jones-looking-goalie-sharks-need-come-playoff-time

Um yeah...Braun is clearly faster than Heed from a skating perspective. Like that's not really debateable.
This isn't even close. Of course Braun is faster.

dat december system change doe
is that a deboer special?
Sure seems like it. A bunch of us who were chicken little back in December need to maybe remember this next year. People hate on PDB a lot but it's tough to deny the results from his coaching. Both EKs out and various other D-man injuries this season and goaltending and defensive play barely above beer league at various times and he's got the best team in the conference and maybe best in the NHL since his adjustments. Crazy...
 
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Alwalys

Phu m.
May 19, 2010
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Sure seems like it. A bunch of us who were chicken little back in December need to maybe remember this next year. People hate on PDB a lot but it's tough to deny the results from his coaching. Both EKs out and various other D-man injuries this season and goaltending and defensive play barely above beer league at various times and he's got the best team in the conference and maybe best in the NHL since his adjustments. Crazy...

plot twist. spott is the real brains behind the operation
 
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Doctor Soraluce

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Sep 28, 2017
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Finally finished the 3rd period... Holy cow is Meier ever a stud. I don't mind them dressing Haley if it means guys like Meier get some extra ice time. He's young and in incredible shape, he can handle it. I can't wait until the hitting starts in the playoffs, he's going to send more than a couple guys to the locker room early. That speed and that solid is a dangerous combo. Not unlike Torres (but bigger?) when he made legal checks. Like a fire hydrant slamming into dudes.
 

STL Shark

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Mar 6, 2013
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Dell has to play tomorrow. We can't go into the playoffs with our backup goalie who hasn't started for 2 months.
Why? If we’re forced to play Dell in the playoffs we’re getting eliminated whether he’s played a ton or not at all in that time.
 

spintheblackcircle

incoming!!!
Mar 1, 2002
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But it's a play that everyone in the NHL in that spot is going to make. I'm not worried about Vlasic and Braun's offense. I'm worried about the team's defense that if you take Braun out for Heed, you're leaving a massive hole in the PK that cannot be filled by anyone other than Burns and Karlsson and also in defensive situations late in games. It's also going to hurt in general just in how DeBoer uses Heed. In order to maximize what you're going to get out of Burns and Karlsson, especially now that Karlsson has a tender groin, is to be able to count on someone to step in for 20 minutes and take the defensive pressure off of them so they can do their thing offensively.

And no, if Braun was Ryan he wouldn't be benched because while he has his problems with the puck, it is exaggerated on these boards and not nearly enough to override the fact that he's playing very well defensively. You are completely dismissing how good Braun is defensively because the negatives about him standout in your head.

And you can bet your bottom dollar that if Heed is in the lineup for the playoffs, that 15 minutes a game he's getting now is going to be cut to 10 or 12 and that's going to have lasting impact on the top guys and wear them out.

Last year, the bottom pairing averaged about 13 minutes a game and Heed is a better player than Demelo, Martin or Ryan. And for all the talk of how bad Heed is defensively, he has by far the lowest goals against per 60 minutes of all Sharks d-men.
 

Alaskanice

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Sep 23, 2009
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Not the most exciting game but I can still hear the ping of the iron this morning. Unreal how many posts were hit.
This is the kind of game we need to win. Good for Jones to get the shutout. Didn’t Burns look inspired?
We can put it any way they like it. Let’s show Winnipeg how we can.

Go Sharks!!
 

Quid Pro Clowe

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Dec 28, 2008
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Sharks looked in control all night. They stayed in position and didn't have to expand a lot of energy due to turnovers like they have in the past.

They should have their legs tonight in Winnipeg.
 
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Saskatoon

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Aug 24, 2006
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I think winning the division could end up being very important if Karlsson doesn't come back before playoffs. Would much rather see him get back up to speed against an easier team.

I think we need to give the Sharks a break tonight against Winnipeg if they lose. Back-to-back with lots of travel against a really good team.
 
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tiburon12

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Jul 18, 2009
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anyone else notice that during the big scrum in front of Jones in the first, Pateryn is just hammering Hertl with cross checks? That's just not hockey and doesnt have any impact on the game except to hurt another player.

3:20 of the condensed game:
 

Fistfullofbeer

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May 9, 2011
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anyone else notice that during the big scrum in front of Jones in the first, Pateryn is just hammering Hertl with cross checks? That's just not hockey and doesnt have any impact on the game except to hurt another player.

3:20 of the condensed game:

Yep. I made a comment at that time about Pateryn cross-checking Hertl like he owed him money.
 

Pinkfloyd

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Last year, the bottom pairing averaged about 13 minutes a game and Heed is a better player than Demelo, Martin or Ryan. And for all the talk of how bad Heed is defensively, he has by far the lowest goals against per 60 minutes of all Sharks d-men.

I agree that Heed is a better player than DeMelo, Martin, or Ryan but the comparison and the choice to make is between him and Braun when Karlsson is healthy. Last year, Burns and Vlasic both played 25 minutes a night in the playoffs and Burns was playing injured for roughly half that run or more. They played their three guys last year. Now they have Karlsson in the fold provided that he is healthy. Having at least four guys that can play 20+ minutes a night will keep the other top guys fresher for longer. I want to keep Heed and hope they re-sign him. I also think that after this year it's time to move on from Braun if they re-sign Karlsson but Braun is absolutely necessary in the lineup for the playoffs especially knowing that Karlsson is one misstep away from being injured again. They need a dependable top four caliber d-man in the lineup even with Heed's success against sheltered competition.
 

spintheblackcircle

incoming!!!
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I agree that Heed is a better player than DeMelo, Martin, or Ryan but the comparison and the choice to make is between him and Braun when Karlsson is healthy. Last year, Burns and Vlasic both played 25 minutes a night in the playoffs and Burns was playing injured for roughly half that run or more. They played their three guys last year. Now they have Karlsson in the fold provided that he is healthy. Having at least four guys that can play 20+ minutes a night will keep the other top guys fresher for longer. I want to keep Heed and hope they re-sign him. I also think that after this year it's time to move on from Braun if they re-sign Karlsson but Braun is absolutely necessary in the lineup for the playoffs especially knowing that Karlsson is one misstep away from being injured again. They need a dependable top four caliber d-man in the lineup even with Heed's success against sheltered competition.

Burns, Vlasic, EK and Dillon.

Goals are hard to come by in the playoffs and if Heed can do what he's done the last 20 games in the next 15 games, I want to see that given a chance. I totally get your line of reasoning and I can't say you're wrong. But goals can dry up when you play Playoff Fleury.
 

Pinkfloyd

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Burns, Vlasic, EK and Dillon.

Goals are hard to come by in the playoffs and if Heed can do what he's done the last 20 games in the next 15 games, I want to see that given a chance. I totally get your line of reasoning and I can't say you're wrong. But goals can dry up when you play Playoff Fleury.

Dillon doesn't even play 20 minutes a night when he's having a good year this year and it's obvious he doesn't have the coach's trust in crunch time where Braun does. And if Karlsson gets injured mid-game, you're going to lean heavily on Burns to a dangerous point and/or have Heed play top four minutes that will likely end badly for him.

As for playoff Fleury, that's a mixed bag as his career shows. Chances are you won't see the Fleury of last year because he's healthy this year and has been used frequently. He will likely be too worn out to put on the performances he did last year. It also helps that Vegas isn't as good of a team this year either.
 

Mattb124

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Apr 29, 2011
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Heed hasn't been smoked to the outside since he drew back in due to EK65's injury, but he has a history of it. With that, I still don't trust him against the sort of comp he would likely face in the PO's. Seems like the sort of D who can be exploited for a goal.

Braun has his issues with getting the puck out, but I'd much rather have him in there for 10 mins/night than Heed.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
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Dillon doesn't even play 20 minutes a night when he's having a good year this year and it's obvious he doesn't have the coach's trust in crunch time where Braun does. And if Karlsson gets injured mid-game, you're going to lean heavily on Burns to a dangerous point and/or have Heed play top four minutes that will likely end badly for him.

As for playoff Fleury, that's a mixed bag as his career shows. Chances are you won't see the Fleury of last year because he's healthy this year and has been used frequently. He will likely be too worn out to put on the performances he did last year. It also helps that Vegas isn't as good of a team this year either.

In the calendar year of 2019, Vlasic is playing 19:56 per game and Dillon is playing 19:54. The trust of a coach takes time to build.

Outside of that, and the fact that I totally disagree with you on Heed’s assist on Hertl’s goal against Chicago, I personally get where you’re coming from on Braun Vs. Heed. And I get the other arguments in favor of Heed as well.

Personally, the way that I see it, playoffs is about superstar performance. We have Erik Karlsson on our roster who single-handedly carried a terrible Ottawa team to game 7 of the ECF, and our team is so much better with him playing at that level. In San Jose, we’ve seen him play that way but only when he’s been paired with Brenden Dillon.
 

Quid Pro Clowe

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Once Karlsson is back in there's really no debate. Braun is better despite being the dman we dump on the most this year. Heed is great in the role he is in now, but won't have this role come the playoffs.
 

Pinkfloyd

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In the calendar year of 2019, Vlasic is playing 19:56 per game and Dillon is playing 19:54. The trust of a coach takes time to build.

Outside of that, and the fact that I totally disagree with you on Heed’s assist on Hertl’s goal against Chicago, I personally get where you’re coming from on Braun Vs. Heed. And I get the other arguments in favor of Heed as well.

Personally, the way that I see it, playoffs is about superstar performance. We have Erik Karlsson on our roster who single-handedly carried a terrible Ottawa team to game 7 of the ECF, and our team is so much better with him playing at that level. In San Jose, we’ve seen him play that way but only when he’s been paired with Brenden Dillon.

It helps Dillon in that comparison since Vlasic was out for a good chunk of time. Since both have been in the lineup together, that gap is wider and only as slim as it has been because Vlasic is mostly babysitting Heed coming back from injury while Dillon-Braun has been second pairing level. That pairing at evens would get pushed down to 3rd with Karlsson healthy. But the reality is that Dillon is not a top four guy on a regular basis and is treated as such. He doesn't handle the competition level very well on a consistent basis. He's not a guy you keep there if you can help it and this team can help it by keeping Braun in the lineup.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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It helps Dillon in that comparison since Vlasic was out for a good chunk of time. Since both have been in the lineup together, that gap is wider and only as slim as it has been because Vlasic is mostly babysitting Heed coming back from injury while Dillon-Braun has been second pairing level. That pairing at evens would get pushed down to 3rd with Karlsson healthy. But the reality is that Dillon is not a top four guy on a regular basis and is treated as such. He doesn't handle the competition level very well on a consistent basis. He's not a guy you keep there if you can help it and this team can help it by keeping Braun in the lineup.

You can debate the trust the coach has in him, but as soon as you bring up his performance in those roles, then you’re just wrong about Dillon. He’s been matched against plenty of star players this season: ROR, Kane, Kucherov, Crosby, Gaudreau, McDavid off the top of my head. He’s shut them all down. The full post I made about it is here:

As this season has progressed, Dillon has been taking on tougher competition. This started when Vlasic was out and Dillon was paired with Erik Karlsson. But even tonight against a one line team that stacked up Toews/Kane, with Vlasic and without Karlsson in the lineup, Dillon's pairing still took on tougher matchups.

Here is how Dillon has done when he has played heavy minutes at 5-on-5 against big name star forwards this season:

GameOpponentTOIShot Attempts AgainstHigh Danger Chances AgainstGoals AgainstOZFO%
03/03 Vs. CHI*Jonathan Toews8:3751060%
03/03 Vs. CHI*Patrick Kane8:0951060%
02/24 @ DET*Dylan Larkin8:5783014.29%
02/23 @ CBJ**Artemi Panarin6:25321100%
02/21 @ PIT**Evgeni Malkin6:546000%
02/21 @ PIT**Phil Kessel6:396000%
02/14 Vs. WSH*Evgeny Kuznetsov9:4610210%
02/14 Vs. WSH*Alexander Ovechkin8:3310110%
02/11 @ VANElias Petterson6:163000%
02/09 Vs. EDM*Leon Draisaitl8:5871157.14%
02/09 Vs. EDM*Connor McDavid8:1371166.67%
02/07 @ CGY*Sean Monahan5:5870050%
02/07 @ CGY*Johnny Gaudreau5:5270050%
01/21 @ FLA*Aleksander Barkov7:3071150%
01/19 @ TBL*Steven Stamkos8:137320%
01/15 Vs. PITSidney Crosby7:5580050%
01/12 @ VGKWilliam Karlsson8:1371033.33%
01/12 @ VGKJonathan Marchessault8:0171033.33%
01/08 Vs. EDMConnor McDavid10:4330042.86%
01/07 Vs. LAKAnze Kopitar15:30122161.54%
01/05 Vs. TBLBrayden Point12:3160042.86%
01/05 Vs. TBLNikita Kucherov12:2260042.86%
12/16 @ CHIPatrick Kane6:5461050%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
* Means no Erik Karlsson in the lineup
** Means Erik Karlsson was in the lineup but not Dillon's frequent partner

Basically, he's played a good amount of minutes with heavy d-zone usage against big name star players and generally hasn't given up a lot.

His aggregate totals against each team's best forward (Kane, Larkin, Panarin, Malkin, Ovechkin, Pettersson, McDavid, Gaudreau, Barkov, Stamkos, Crosby, W. Karlsson, Kopitar, and Kucherov):

TOIShot Attempts AgainstHigh Danger Chances AgainstGoals Against
136:39105167
Per 6046.107.033.07
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
If there were an NHL team whose numbers were "Brenden Dillon hard matched against superstar forwards", they would allow far shot attempts and high danger chances at a lower rate than any other team in the league. That's very encouraging, even in a small sample size. The goals against isn't great but it's worth taking in with a grain of salt when considering the small sample size, 5/7 of them coming in blowout losses, and Dillon being unable to control poor goaltending. On top of that, holding these kinds of star players to 3 goals per 60 minutes is still good cause most of them are on the ice for more than 3 per 60.

The last thing to note is that 75 of those 136 minutes came without Erik Karlsson by his side and 62 came without Karlsson even in the lineup. So it's not as if he's riding Karlsson's coat tails by any means.

Honestly, the sample size is still too small to really draw conclusions from. But it's still very cool stuff and worth noting IMO. Dillon has been having an incredible season so far.
 
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