Confirmed with Link: Sharks acquire Adin Hill and 2022 7th from Arizona for Josef Korenar and 2022 2nd

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Patty Ice

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He was also unclaimed on waivers this season, has a career .904 AHL save percentage, was about to be non-tendered and become a UFA so their feet were over the fire even moreso than Arizona. Also, assuming Bernier is signed then that is also value far superior than what Korenar added to the Hill deal. He's also 5'11 and not sure there are many goalies that project long-term at that height.

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He was also unclaimed on waivers this season, has a career .904 AHL save percentage, was about to be non-tendered and become a UFA so their feet were over the fire even moreso than Arizona. Also, assuming Bernier is signed then that is also value far superior than what Korenar added to the Hill deal. He's also 5'11 and not sure there are many goalies that project long-term at that height.
but this would mean we cant scream FiRe Dw
 
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Hodge

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but this would mean we cant scream FiRe Dw

Clearly we should be building a statue of him on West Santa Clara for giving up a pick ~60 slots higher for a goalie who has been slightly worse than Hill in the AHL and much better than Hill in the NHL over roughly the same number of games in both leagues at the same age.
 

STL Shark

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Clearly we should be building a statue of him on West Santa Clara for giving up a pick ~60 slots higher for a goalie who has been slightly worse than Hill in the AHL and much better than Hill in the NHL over roughly the same number of games in both leagues at the same age.
So Sharks are winning the lottery and Detroit is winning the Cup? Is that how you come up with the 60? Because in actuality it’s a hell of a lot closer to 30 than 60. And if by roughly the same number of games you mean less than 60% of the games of Hill then sure. Roughly the same.
 
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Hodge

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So Sharks are winning the lottery and Carolina is winning the Cup? Is that how you come up with the 60? Because in actuality it’s a hell of a lot closer to 30 than 60.

Detroit gave up the 94th pick in this year's draft for Nedeljkovic while the 2nd the Sharks gave up will probably be somewhere in the late 30s.
 

TheWayToRefJose

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Clearly we should be building a statue of him on West Santa Clara for giving up a pick ~60 slots higher for a goalie who has been slightly worse than Hill in the AHL and much better than Hill in the NHL over roughly the same number of games in both leagues at the same age.
Guess who had better AHL numbers and a better first 25 games than Ned, while also being an undersized goalie? Alex Stalock. Sure you know how good he turned out to be after the flash in the pan.
Another similar story, Aaron Dell.
How about The hamburglar?
Matt Murray?
Tristen Jarry?

Its not uncommon for a goalie to come in and put up stellar numbers for 25 games and then fade into nothing. It’s a lot more prevalent that they’re a flash in the pan if they’re undersized and didn’t post good AHL numbers, which Ned fits that profile exactly.
 

Hodge

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Guess who had better AHL numbers and a better first 25 games than Ned, while also being an undersized goalie? Alex Stalock. Sure you know how good he turned out to be after the flash in the pan.
Another similar story, Aaron Dell.
How about The hamburglar?
Matt Murray?
Tristen Jarry?

Its not uncommon for a goalie to come in and put up stellar numbers for 25 games and then fade into nothing. It’s a lot more prevalent that they’re a flash in the pan if they’re undersized and didn’t post good AHL numbers, which Ned fits that profile exactly.

Apart from the bit about size, which is being way overblown, how does any of this not also apply to Adin Hill? His NHL sample size is just as small. There is every bit as much risk of Hill flaming out as Nedeljkovic we just gave up more value to place a similar bet.
 

Herschel

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Apart from the bit about size, which is being way overblown, how does any of this not also apply to Adin Hill? His NHL sample size is just as small. There is every bit as much risk of Hill flaming out as Nedeljkovic we just gave up more value to place a similar bet.

Well there is the part where Carolina low balled Ned and then traded him. Seems like they were very high on him.
 

TheWayToRefJose

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Apart from the bit about size, which is being way overblown, how does any of this not also apply to Adin Hill? His NHL sample size is just as small. There is every bit as much risk of Hill flaming out as Nedeljkovic we just gave up more value to place a similar bet.
Hill is a lot bigger, which translates to the NHL a lot better than being undersized as a goalie. Show me a sub 6’0” goalie that is a quality starter since the pad change.

Hill has a better track record through his juniors and AHL, which also points to him not being a fluke.

Ned hasn’t posted numbers anywhere besides this one year that indicates he is NHL starter material.

He also played on a team that gave up as many high danger chances as SJ and still had good results. He didn’t play in front of a team like the canes than Jones might have even been able to post a 905 in front of.
 

Hodge

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Ned hasn’t posted numbers anywhere besides this one year that indicates he is NHL starter material.

This is true but that's still one more year than Hill has ever had that indicates he is NHL starter material.

Regardless I'm not saying the Sharks should have traded for Ned either. I have no idea whether Ned will be any good just like I have no idea whether Hill will be any good just like I have no idea whether any goalie on the planet outside of Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck will be any good in any given year.

My argument has always been it didn't make sense to give up a high 2nd round pick for an unproven goalie when you can choose from other similar goalies at a lower acquisition cost or no cost at all via UFA. Especially for a team that isn't (or at least has no rational reason to be) in win now mode.
 

TheWayToRefJose

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This is true but that's still one more year than Hill has ever had that indicates he is NHL starter material.

Regardless I'm not saying the Sharks should have traded for Ned either. I have no idea whether Ned will be any good just like I have no idea whether Hill will be any good just like I have no idea whether any goalie on the planet outside of Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck will be any good in any given year.

My argument has always been it didn't make sense to give up a high 2nd round pick for an unproven goalie when you can choose from other similar goalies at a lower acquisition cost or no cost at all via UFA. Especially for a team that isn't (or at least has no rational reason to be) in win now mode.
I moderately agree. I’m not necessarily a huge fan of giving up that second for a goalie when I don’t believe we should be spending futures, but a second for a guy like Hill isn’t terrible. We have up a first for Martin Jones when he was in a similar position. Lehner also went for a first to Buffalo as a similar young goalie. Same with Talbot.

It also appears the organization was dead set on getting Hill and that’s the guy they identified they wanted and felt strongly enough to do it, so I’ll reserve further judgment to see how it plays out.

He’s a young, big, athletic goalie that has some passion, which we desperately need.

Id rather take a flier on Hill for a second than pick Wallestedt at 7OA.
 
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Herschel

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This is true but that's still one more year than Hill has ever had that indicates he is NHL starter material.

Regardless I'm not saying the Sharks should have traded for Ned either. I have no idea whether Ned will be any good just like I have no idea whether Hill will be any good just like I have no idea whether any goalie on the planet outside of Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck will be any good in any given year.

My argument has always been it didn't make sense to give up a high 2nd round pick for an unproven goalie when you can choose from other similar goalies at a lower acquisition cost or no cost at all via UFA. Especially for a team that isn't (or at least has no rational reason to be) in win now mode.

Who are the similar UFA goalies?
 

Hodge

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Who are the similar UFA goalies?

By definition no UFA goalies are 25 years old if that's what you're getting at. But in terms of actual performance I would guess Ullmark, Andersen and Mrazek all have a good chance of outperforming Hill over the next two years that we have him under team control for. There are others like Rittich and Brossoit as well who have similar profiles to Hill with more NHL experience.

Personally I don't believe there's much of a difference between the 10th and 50th best goalie so most of these options don't seem better or worse to me than Hill except that you don't have to give anything up to get them. The problem with the Sharks over the past few years is that Jones appears to be a lot worse than the 50th best goalie in the league but they kept rolling him out there. Almost anyone would be a substantial improvement.
 
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Hodge

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Does it matter? DW could've traded Jones for Price at 50% retention and people'd still whine about it.

Of course I would whine about that because it's a terrible trade.

Is it possible some of us are negative about the team's direction because they have finished 29th and 26th in back to back seasons and have 25% of a flat salary cap tied up in two worthless defensemen for the next half decade to go along with other unmovable contracts yet stick with the same management group that failed to build a champion around two Hall of Famers and keeps making bad decisions?
 

TheWayToRefJose

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By definition no UFA goalies are 25 years old if that's what you're getting at. But in terms of actual performance I would guess Ullmark, Andersen and Mrazek all have a good chance of outperforming Hill over the next two years that we have him under team control for. There are others like Rittich and Brossoit as well who have similar profiles to Hill with more NHL experience.

Personally I don't believe there's much of a difference between the 10th and 50th best goalie so most of these options don't seem better or worse to me than Hill except that you don't have to give anything up to get them. The problem with the Sharks over the past few years is that Jones appears to be a lot worse than the 50th best goalie in the league but they kept rolling him out there. Almost anyone would be a substantial improvement.
I’ve been a big Ullmark fan since he was a rookie. My friend from upstate NY that got me into hockey was a sabres fans, so I’ve seen a lot of him. Would be happy if they signed him or even Mrazek for a 1A/1B type thing.

Maybe we could get Mrazek on a good deal to be with his countryman Hertl.

I agree there was a few guys to sign as UFAs that would probably provide the same short term effect as Hill, but it would be nice to find a 25 year old above average starter.
 

Doctor Soraluce

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I’ve been a big Ullmark fan since he was a rookie. My friend from upstate NY that got me into hockey was a sabres fans, so I’ve seen a lot of him. Would be happy if they signed him or even Mrazek for a 1A/1B type thing.

Maybe we could get Mrazek on a good deal to be with his countryman Hertl.

I agree there was a few guys to sign as UFAs that would probably provide the same short term effect as Hill, but it would be nice to find a 25 year old above average starter.
Not sure if real but I thought I just saw Ulmark resigned with the Sabres. Can't imagine why though.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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Also not true. Per Natural Stattrick, Merzlikins has 19.05 GSAA over the past two seasons and Hill has 5.61. Hill has played basically half of the minutes of Merzlikins so if you double it for comparison sake it would be 19.05 to 11.22. Only issue with Merzlikins is age and contract.

GSAA is just goals saved above average based on league average save percentage. Doesn't incorporate shot quality.

Yes, someone elaborate! What happened to JTR?

He's a data scientist that worked on improving prospect projection and in particular in improving "NHLe". NHLe works by comparing players success in various leagues and making relationships between them to ultimately project the chance to become an NHLer. He's also improved it to project the chance to breakout as a star.

Also worked on improving the WAR model (wins above replacement).

But don't take my word for it, check out his pinned post on his Twitter: https://twitter.com/TopDownHockey
His detailed breakdown of the models can be found here: Patrick Bacon – Medium

He's a minor internet hockey advanced stat celebrity now.

Hey, it's farther than any of the rest of us have gone talking about hockey

Patrick’s work has been featured on major channels, and I think he’s done radio stuff as well. I think it’s pretty legit stuff at this point as far as public analytics goes

Haha, thanks for all the kind words everybody. Much appreciated. I definitely would not be where I am now without the lessons I learned from my time on this forum.

For once in my life, though, I actually agree with the endpoint of Doctor Soraluce's bad faith argument: I haven't accomplished anything just yet. My goal when I started TopDownHockey 9 months ago was to eventually work for an NHL team, and that hasn't happened yet. Of course, when it does happen, we know Doctor Soraluce will inevitably move the goal posts. But he can have his fun for now. :)
 

STL Shark

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I’ve been a big Ullmark fan since he was a rookie. My friend from upstate NY that got me into hockey was a sabres fans, so I’ve seen a lot of him. Would be happy if they signed him or even Mrazek for a 1A/1B type thing.

Maybe we could get Mrazek on a good deal to be with his countryman Hertl.

I agree there was a few guys to sign as UFAs that would probably provide the same short term effect as Hill, but it would be nice to find a 25 year old above average starter.
Really think Mrazek is DW's guy if they money and term is right. He hits all of the goalie analytics that DW mentioned in the Hill presser re: HDSV% and stuff. Granted I would be weary about the injuries and extrapolating performance behind a good Carolina D to the Sharks, but he's comfortable in a tandem and has had success. Get him in at like 2 years $3 million a year and I would be happy with that tandem going into the season.

Could also see Ullmark given he's a big goalie and young side of UFA (will be 28 next week), but I would have to imagine he's looking for a situation where he can go out and be the guy and get paid like he's the guy. Don't think that is going to happen here so would be surprised if he winds up in SJ for that reason.
 
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