OT: Severe Weather Discussion II

[Sparksrus3]

I went to Mexico last year on a cruise .

That was smart to go when you did.. I believe the new plans for the "Wall" have it extending out over the Pacific

 

[Strummergas]

because I'm the first Irishman to achieve this

Excellent retort!

 

[CBG]

I went to Mexico last year on a cruise and I never drank the water haha.

Also, I have been on about eight cruises (and going on one next year as well) and have this weird fear of the cruise just tipping over.

These people just had that same feeling = https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...8sSpOoyvnP9sKHx-1uTRXtoX6HZjFT7xQCsG3GTnYK6UI

 

[CBG]

Says who? Who are the some that will get hit by this "event?" Also, why do you keep saying, "just sayin'," as if you have some secret model that no one knows about and this somehow makes you the top forecaster? Like crasherino said, up your game.

GB -I would have replied sooner but I just saw this post of yours.I don't have a magic 8 ball or a secret model as I said the the other day the friday / saturday ( today tomorrow ) event was minor and is well south of most of us but as far as ---edit here my mistake this should have read Saturday nite into Sunday it's NOT SEVERE WEATHER but it is weather related and it has been on the long range models for a while,,,and if this makes you feel better enjoy this lovely picture as you can see it would not take much for this to effect a few more people in our area hope it helps clear things up

 

[Sparksrus3]

Excellent retort!

I stewed on your post for an hour while I browsed the boards . You got me good and I felt I owed you something worthy. Stay thirsty my friend

LGI

 

[CBG]

Is it going to be a Huge or Severe Weather event tonight into Sunday ? No not at all but it appears it will be enough for a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued by the NWS in many areas. So if you plan on being out out and about late tonight just be aware.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

CTZ009-NJZ002-NYZ069-092100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.190310T0800Z-190310T1300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Rockland-
429 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light
glaze expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut,
Southern Fairfield County. In New York, Rockland County.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.


/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.190310T0800Z-190310T1600Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Northern Westchester-
429 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Is it going to be a Huge or Severe Weather event tonight into Sunday ? No not at all but it appears it will be enough for a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued by the NWS in many areas. So if you plan on being out out and about late tonight just be aware.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

CTZ009-NJZ002-NYZ069-092100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.190310T0800Z-190310T1300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Rockland-
429 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light
glaze expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut,
Southern Fairfield County. In New York, Rockland County.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.


/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.190310T0800Z-190310T1600Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Northern Westchester-
429 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

I tend to focus on the Island unless asked otherwise, but yeah north of the city could be slick travel for a bit. LI? Maybe a few snowflakes and sleet pellets overnight before rain

 

[Bones45]

As Hunter Mountain would say.. "we've received a good dusting of snow overnight......"

 

[CBG]

I tend to focus on the Island unless asked otherwise, but yeah north of the city could be slick travel for a bit. LI? Maybe a few snowflakes and sleet pellets overnight before rain

96, I hear you and IMO everyone wants to usually know " what about by my area " or they are concerned with their own neck of the woods or how it effects them. When I first posted on here I did not know if TeamKidd or any others post about all weather events on this thread or only as the title states just "SEVERE" events as I did not read back too many pages. In other news I hope our guys beat the Flyers and get 2 points and don't forget to push the clocks ahead.

 

[The Lighthouse]

96, I hear you and IMO everyone wants to usually know " what about by my area " or they are concerned with their own neck of the woods or how it effects them. When I first posted on here I did not know if TeamKidd or any others post about all weather events on this thread or only as the title states just "SEVERE" events as I did not read back too many pages. In other news I hope our guys beat the Flyers and get 2 points and don't forget to push the clocks ahead.

You forgot the "just sayin."

 

[Tres Peleches]

96, I hear you and IMO everyone wants to usually know " what about by my area " or they are concerned with their own neck of the woods or how it effects them. When I first posted on here I did not know if TeamKidd or any others post about all weather events on this thread or only as the title states just "SEVERE" events as I did not read back too many pages. In other news I hope our guys beat the Flyers and get 2 points and don't forget to push the clocks ahead.

No, no worries! Everyone is welcome to post here. Weather enthusiasts and meteorologists alike! If you ever have any questions feel free to ask too!

 

[CBG]

No, no worries! Everyone is welcome to post here. Weather enthusiasts and meteorologists alike! If you ever have any questions feel free to ask too!

96 , there are always questions and yep I have many,,,,,Thanks

 

[CBG]

You forgot the "just sayin."

You see this is a perfect example of how you can't please everyone all the time.

 

[Chardo]

I'm sitting this one out. Dinner tonight on the beach in Cancun. I trust y'all will stay safe and I'll get back to the room and see two points added to the standings.

 

[CBG]

Hey weather geeks,,,,,has anyone looked at the latest weather models ? As of right now the Euro is actually showing a few inches of yes snow on Sunday and no you can not make this up. Lets see how it plays out as this is still 5 days away and could easily change . In other news = its really nice out right now.

 

[MJF]

Hey weather geeks,,,,,has anyone looked at the latest weather models ? As of right now the Euro is actually showing a few inches of yes snow on Sunday and no you can not make this up. Lets see how it plays out as this is still 5 days away and could easily change . In other news = its really nice out right now.

Snow on St Patrick’s Day. This is becoming far too common.

 

[CBG]

I can't wait for this winter to be over = 5 days ago the models showed a clipper for tonight but that has since disappeared. Fast forward and once again a few long range models are showing 2 more "possible" shots of snow and one of them is 5 days away around the 22nd ( give or take a day ) and another one on --> get this , April 1st. Are these models correct and will they still show this days from now ? Could be but probably not as that has been the story line the entire winter and as much as I luv snow ,I am ready for Spring and I am so done with this winter. Lets see how this plays out. Happy St Patricks Day All.

 

[CBG]

I think Friday might be put under the heading of severe weather as the storm track is yet to be determined but it could get stupid windy and tides could be an issue and don't rule out snow just yet especially inland and on the back end , as usual a lot depends on the track . Thoughts weather geeks ?

 

[Bones45]

I think Friday might be put under the heading of severe weather as the storm track is yet to be determined but it could get stupid windy and tides could be an issue and don't rule out snow just yet especially inland and on the back end , as usual a lot depends on the track . Thoughts weather geeks ?

This thread coming to the top is no good.

Unless we are getting snow, or some sort of Apocolyptic Warm Weather event, this thread needs to die until late November.

 

[CBG]

This thread coming to the top is no good.

Unless we are getting snow, or some sort of Apocolyptic Warm Weather event, this thread needs to die until late November.

First off its a slow day and I had some time so I took a look at some weather models . So I guess this could depend on someones definition of " apocalyptic " or maybe if someone didn't like or disagreed with a post they could pass over it much like I do when I see someone post about how good Bailey is = those posts I pass over. So in this case would "apocalyptic" = chances of flooding and people losing power or "APOCOLYPTIC" as in cats mating with dogs and the Stay puff Marshmallow Man making an appearance ?

 

[Tres Peleches]

I think Friday might be put under the heading of severe weather as the storm track is yet to be determined but it could get stupid windy and tides could be an issue and don't rule out snow just yet especially inland and on the back end , as usual a lot depends on the track . Thoughts weather geeks ?

No snow with the storm itself. Maybe a snow shower or two as another system drops in right behind it, but much better chance over upstate NY than on the Island.

Will be windier behind the storm late Friday/Friday night than with the storm itself

 

[CBG]

No snow with the storm itself. Maybe a snow shower or two as another system drops in right behind it, but much better chance over upstate NY than on the Island.

Will be windier behind the storm late Friday/Friday night than with the storm itself

96 ---> Super moon on the 21st so tides and wind "could " be an issue on the Island and coastal areas. As for me I'm in Rockland so tides don't effect me here but no matter where you live a soaked ground and high winds + trees possibly being uprooted could = loss of power. That could be an issue along with possible back end snows but "as of right now " that snow appears well inland BUT a deepening LOW dropping 30 millibars or so in a 24 hour timeframe ? There is still time for this to all change as the track is undetermined and this event is still days away.

 

[Sparksrus3]

I took a look at some weather models . [/MEDIA]

Show me the weather models . Start with the redheads

 

[Tres Peleches]

96 ---> Super moon on the 21st so tides and wind "could " be an issue on the Island and coastal areas. As for me I'm in Rockland so tides don't effect me here but no matter where you live a soaked ground and high winds + trees possibly being uprooted could = loss of power. That could be an issue along with possible back end snows but "as of right now " that snow appears well inland BUT a deepening LOW dropping 30 millibars or so in a 24 hour timeframe ? There is still time for this to all change as the track is undetermined and this event is still days away.

Coastal flooding and heavy rain will be the biggest threats from this storm, IMHO.

Also, I don’t see a model that deepens it that quickly. Unless you’re looking at the CMC? I can’t say for sure, but from the looks of it it wants to make it a warm-core low and really strengthen it. Personally, I don’t buy that for a second and none of the other models seem to either

The other problem is that the pressure gradient isn’t particularly strong. The low doesn’t really rapidly deepen until its north of our latitude and the high northwest of the low isn’t that strong either, so the gradient isn’t that big until the storm is well northeast of us. To this end, it will get windy behind the storm, and that could certainly cause some issues, particularly if, as you mentioned, there’s heavy rain beforehand, which is a possibility, but outside of convection or heavy rain dragging some stronger gusts to the surface (definitely possible, but localized), I’m thinking it’s not terriblly windy during the storm itself

 

[TeamKidd]

Coastal flooding and heavy rain will be the biggest threats from this storm, IMHO.

Also, I don’t see a model that deepens it that quickly. Unless you’re looking at the CMC? I can’t say for sure, but from the looks of it it wants to make it a warm-core low and really strengthen it. Personally, I don’t buy that for a second and none of the other models seem to either

The other problem is that the pressure gradient isn’t particularly strong. The low doesn’t really rapidly deepen until its north of our latitude and the high northwest of the low isn’t that strong either, so the gradient isn’t that big until the storm is well northeast of us. To this end, it will get windy behind the storm, and that could certainly cause some issues, particularly if, as you mentioned, there’s heavy rain beforehand, which is a possibility, but outside of convection or heavy rain dragging some stronger gusts to the surface (definitely possible, but localized), I’m thinking it’s not terribly windy during the storm itself

yeah i dont see much here...

just my 2 cents- along the lines of what Bones said, i think this thread should be kept for truly severe weather events (blizzards, hurricanes, major Nor'Easters) to let people know something with a real significant impact is coming. I'm always happy to talk shop and discuss daily weather, but maybe another OT thread General Weather Discussion could be started. I know a lot of people on here rely on this thread to alert them of potential extreme weather and a prolonged general weather discussion could detract from that. just my .02....