Speculation: Setting the Expectations for the New Additions

[MS]

Yeah, I remember his passing as well as his shot, and ability to control the puck on the offensive blueline without turning it over.

Reinhart was great, but by the time we had him his back issues really hampered him and shortened his time with us. Still, even with a bad back, he was incredibly skilled.

Reinhart is probably the most revisionist-history overrated Canuck in history.

He was an exceptionally talented player but was held together with duct tape by the time we got him and was basically a glorified PP specialist who 'got by' playing soft minutes at ES and took a bunch of games off for maintenance on his back. One of my favourite historical Canuck stats is that Garth Butcher outscored Paul Reinhart at ES during Reinhart's 'great' 88-89 season.

But somehow 30 years later Reinhart's name constantly comes up in 'best Canuck defender' discussions as though he was an all-situations stud. And he just wasn't. He was one of the most talented Canuck defenders ever and arguably (along with Brown) the best PP QB, but Doug Lidster was the #1 defender on those teams and a far better player at that point.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

What are your expectations for the new crop of Canucks? Here is mine!

Myers: 45 points
Ferland: 50+ points
Miller: 55 points
Benn: 20+ points

I would appreciate any support for my article on The Hockey Writers as well!

https://thehockeywriters.com/canucks-2019-offseason-expectations/

Cant support your articles.

They read more like fan-fiction than anything resembling analysis or a news article.

 

[F A N]

Huh? I was referring to your claim that I wasn't crapping on the guy who posted the silly 30 points for Miller prediction.

F A N's projections are individually not unreasonable in a best-case vacuum for each player, but taken together they become unreasonable.

And I was estimating/predicting not projecting. There's a difference. Again, I feel like this is a case of taking a guess and having someone call out my guess as being unreasonable.

Besides, Miller averaged 14:40 TOI and picked up 20 PPP last season. His last full season in NY he put up 56 in 16:22 TOI. with only 7 PPP. Ferland's career high TOI is 15:01.To put that into context, Virtanen averaged 14:41 TOI last season.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd say something like:

Myers: ~5-10G depending on shooting luck, and ~30 Pts. He's managed roughly that in WPG blocked by two much better RHD...and he'll be a top RHS offensive option here (sadly).

Benn: ~15 Pts, hopefully doesn't play anywher north of ~18 minutes.

Miller: ~20G and ~55 Pts. He's in his prime and is going to get force fed lots of opportunity and minutes here, wouldn't be absurd for him to more or less match his career highs, whether it's Horvat or Pete that he plays with.

Ferland: ~15G and ~35-40Pts, if he gets to spend some decent time in the Top-6 and some PP collateral points, which i figure he probably will.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

What are your expectations for the new crop of Canucks? Here is mine!

Myers: 45 points
Ferland: 50+ points
Miller: 55 points
Benn: 20+ points

I would appreciate any support for my article on The Hockey Writers as well!

https://thehockeywriters.com/canucks-2019-offseason-expectations/

Lol. You sir are going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[Bankerguy]

Myers 35 pts. many on the PP
Ferland 42 pts. 2nd pp unit time and top line winger all year for Petey too
Benn 16 pts.
Heres my OUTTHERE prediction. - Miller. 20 goals 58 pts. He's in his prime and will be stapled to an improving Horvat all year. He's well positioned for a good year

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I'd say something like:

Myers: ~5-10G depending on shooting luck, and ~30 Pts. He's managed roughly that in WPG blocked by two much better RHD...and he'll be a top RHS offensive option here (sadly).

Benn: ~15 Pts, hopefully doesn't play anywher north of ~18 minutes.

Miller: ~20G and ~55 Pts. He's in his prime and is going to get force fed lots of opportunity and minutes here, wouldn't be absurd for him to more or less match his career highs, whether it's Horvat or Pete that he plays with.

Ferland: ~15G and ~35-40Pts, if he gets to spend some decent time in the Top-6 and some PP collateral points, which i figure he probably will.

Just a tiny thing but I wouldn't call giving Miller top deployment "force feeding" him.

He is the 2nd best winger on the team.

 

[DFAC]

JT Miller: like Lindholm but even more powerfully, Miller emerges as a 70 point player, playing on a dominant PP with top-10 player in the game (drafted 5th overall!) and young superstar Quinn Hughes

Michael Ferland: energized by being back in Western Canada, Ferland continues his torrid pace from last season, and this time, never suffers any injury that slows him down. puts up 55 points, almost half of them coming from games against divisional opponents

Tyler Myers: the dumb Cody Hodgson pick is reversed, and we get the guy we should have picked finally in Canuck colours. he answers the bell and puts up a solid 40 point season

Jordie Benn: Benn there, done that: 20 points once again for the Beard!

Oscar Fantenberg: finally pushes Alex (what the heck are you doing out there) Biega back to the ECHL and puts up a solid 10 points in limited game time

I actually really like Biega as a 3rd pairing or 7th dman. He brings alot to the table and plays his role well. Plus he seems to be liked by his teammates. He’s pretty much the perfect spare defenceman... its only a problem when he’s playing in your top 4

 

[I am toxic]

I actually really like Biega as a 3rd pairing or 7th dman. He brings alot to the table and plays his role well. Plus he seems to be liked by his teammates. He’s pretty much the perfect spare defenceman... its only a problem when he’s playing in your top 4

This, and the nature of his game is such that he should be rested every third or fourth game. Although I would argue that is true for virtually all your players.

 

[F A N]

Just a tiny thing but I wouldn't call giving Miller top deployment "force feeding" him.

He is the 2nd best winger on the team.

There's also the perception that Miller has to play with Petey to have a chance at 55 points. Horvat is a pretty productive player too, can make his teammates better, and his line is likely to play a ton of minutes. Miller may be a good fit on his line.

 

[I am toxic]

There's also the perception that Miller has to play with Petey to have a chance at 55 points. Horvat is a pretty productive player too, can make his teammates better, and his line is likely to play a ton of minutes. Miller may be a good fit on his line.

Ferland may end up being a good fit on EP's left.

But Pearson has looked good on Horvat's left? Anyway, good to have depth on LW, could really use another RW sniper.

Along with Baertschi and Goldy, almost too many LW, not enough RW. Need to make a trade.

 

[F A N]

Ferland may end up being a good fit on EP's left.

But Pearson has looked good on Horvat's left? Anyway, good to have depth on LW, could really use another RW sniper.

Along with Baertschi and Goldy, almost too many LW, not enough RW. Need to make a trade.

Well both Ferland and Miller have spent time playing RW. Leivo is also comfortable playing on both wings. Virtanen is a right hand shot who came up playing left wing. Of course Louie has spent time playing right wing but he's a left handed shot. Podkolzing is also a RW who shoots left.

 

[biturbo19]

Just a tiny thing but I wouldn't call giving Miller top deployment "force feeding" him.

He is the 2nd best winger on the team.

I mean, i'd call it essentially "force feeding" via only having one better winger on the team. But fair point. Just depends on how you look at it. Either way, expect him to be in for potential "career high" type minutes and opportunity.

Real question is going to be if he's one of those guys who can produce more with more, or if he's more of an "efficient producer" who thrives in more moderate minutes and kinda caps out as the minutes ratchet up. Either way, i don't think ~55pts is an unreasonable guesstimate...but if he's more of the former, he could have a legitimate shot at eclipsing that, and turn out to be a huge coup.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Miller / Ferklund is nowhere near the top line on a playoff team.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Myers, Benn, Ferland, and J.T. Miller are good players that played significant minutes on teams that had at least 96 points. Not sure what their individual point totals will be, but I’m definitely sure they’ll play much better than Pouliot, Gudbranson, Granlund and Schaller.

 

[F A N]

Miller / Ferklund is nowhere near the top line on a playoff team.

They have both spent substantial amount of time on the top line on a playoff team.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

They have both spent substantial amount of time on the top line on a playoff team.

Ferland only has 20 career playoff games and, many were as a 3rd liner. Neither have been productive on first lines during the playoffs. Especially Ferland, who has one point in his last 11 playoff games.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Miller / Ferklund is nowhere near the top line on a playoff team.

Miller played with Stamkos and Kucherov for some of the year.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Define some..

 

[Pavel96]

Miller played with Stamkos and Kucherov for some of the year.

J.T. Miller thriving on Rangers' fourth line against Senators

-Miller has been a better player for the Rangers the past two months when coach Alain Vigneault has used him at right wing on the fourth line with center Oscar Lindberg and either Tanner Glass or Jesper Fast at left wing than he has been when he's been used in a top-nine role.

"I don't know how I want to say this, but it's a different role," Miller said, pausing to gather his thoughts. "You know you're playing on the fourth line. It is more simple. There's less plays being made. It's more getting in, banging bodies, being responsible.

"I definitely have gotten in trouble when I play up in the lineup. I want to make a play all the time. I want the puck on my stick. I think mistakes are going to happen, but it seems that simpler is working for me."

"[Hayes] is a disher and I think [Miller] sometimes tries to make the really heads-up, slick, backdoor passes with him," Glass said. "When he gets with us [on the fourth line], it's more straight lines, but he also knows when the puck is on his stick he's the guy making the play whereas he might defer to [Hayes] to make a lot of the plays on that line. With us, when he gets his hands on the puck coming out of the zone he's not looking to make that extra pass."

When told of Glass' evaluation, Miller said, "It's the truth."

-Also, when Miller plays on the fourth line, he tells Lindberg and Glass to get away from him.

"I told them I like to make plays, I want the puck, I want them to give me the puck and get open," Miller said. "I think we can be successful doing that."


If you read the words coming out of his own mouth, and the beloved Tanner Glass', does he sound like a good fit with EP?

 

[wetcoast]

What are your expectations for the new crop of Canucks? Here is mine!

Myers: 45 points 36, 31 (8 years removed from his career highs in his first 2 seasons)
Ferland: 50+ points 41,40
Miller: 55 points 58, 56
Benn: 20+ points 22, 20

I would appreciate any support for my article on The Hockey Writers as well!

https://thehockeywriters.com/canucks-2019-offseason-expectations/

I put each players career high in bold after them.

Miller is the most likely to reach his goal, maybe one of the other 3 guys reach but 2 or 3 won't.

the order you presented the guys in the Link

Miller, Ferland, Myers and Benn is the order of the likelihood of these guys reaching those heights.

Miller almost has to to make up for the price given up for him.

 

[VanJack]

I'd be happy if the new additions did nothing more than replicate their career averages in points and possession stats in a Canuck uniform for the coming season.

Because let's face it. It'll be be up to kids like Pettersson, Boeser, Hughes, Horvat and Virtanen to continue to build on their games. That will have a lot more to do with the Canucks breaking through to become a playoff team in the West.

 

[F A N]

If you read the words coming out of his own mouth, and the beloved Tanner Glass', does he sound like a good fit with EP?

Actually yes. EP is at his best when he is able to make the quick pass or be set up to shoot. Having someone who can play the give and go with him is what's important. He doesn't need to have the puck on his stick most of the time to be successful.

 

[tyhee]

...

Miller, Ferland, Myers and Benn is the order of the likelihood of these guys reaching those heights.

Miller almost has to to make up for the price given up for him.

Considering what Miller's play has to be to make up the price paid for him is an interesting exercise. There are at least two distinct ways of looking at it.

1. Unless a complete disaster hits, the Canucks are going to be a better team this coming season for having had him than they would have been without him.

For some that means he is worth having traded for and the cap hit he'll absorb. Their outlook is made all the easier by the fact that we'll never know what the Canucks would have gotten with the first and third round picks the team gave up for him (though regarding the 1st rounder it is possible that we could have a good idea if the Canucks are truly terrible.) If all that is given up for him is something unknown in the future, it is easy to say he made the team better so was worth the price paid.

This viewpoint doesn't require Miller to be very good, just positive in some way.

2. The opposite viewpoint is to start from the standpoint that the team has borrowed against it's future to acquire Miller. Those picks are worth something for the future-even though, like a lost lottery ticket for which nobody remembers the numbers, exactly what can't be determined.

For those that don't believe it is illogical to borrow against a potentially good future to improve the present from mediocre to decent (ie to make the playoffs when the team would otherwise be likely to miss) it is extremely difficult to make that trade worthwhile.

To me, if the Canucks make the 2nd round of the playoffs each of the next two seasons, losing in the 3rd round, with Miller scoring 60 pts per season each year while the Canucks have two good scoring lines, the trade is bad. I don't know what the future loss will be, but it rates to be something and it could be significant.

Imo borrowing against the future to try to make the playoffs in the present is bad planning. Imo to make up the value of trading for him, the Canucks would have to be in a position in about a year to trade him to get that future value back or he would have to be a key cog on a Canucks' Cup contender in the near term.

To me, Miller producing 50 something pts is a reasonable expectation, but meeting that level of expectation is not enough to justify his cost to the Canucks in their present circumstances.

 

[Pavel96]

Actually yes. EP is at his best when he is able to make the quick pass or be set up to shoot. Having someone who can play the give and go with him is what's important. He doesn't need to have the puck on his stick most of the time to be successful.

EP plays a simple game and will benefit from having someone else completely control the play, and all he has to do is just get open? And he doesn't make slick, heads up passes?