Prospect Info: Serron Noel (2018, #34 overall), Oshawa Generals (OHL)

[BabyBennettov]

Would have liked a defenseman here...

But with all the rumblings of us picking him in the first, I'm really glad Tallon was able to put his hands on this project while still picking Denisenko in the first round.

Now we just have to root for Noel !

 

[Great8Cam]

He has the feel of a 3rd or 4th liner at best. Big body and not good skating. But he can improve on his skating if he gets a power skating coach. It does wonders for these guys that do use them and don’t think that just because they were drafted or they are in the show that they don’t need to improve.

 

[Great8Cam]

I would rather have taken Wilde or Woo with the pick though.

 

[pb1300]

He has the feel of a 3rd or 4th liner at best. Big body and not good skating. But he can improve on his skating if he gets a power skating coach. It does wonders for these guys that do use them and don’t think that just because they were drafted or they are in the show that they don’t need to improve.

He worked on his skating last summer, and its been reported that its a strength of his now.

 

[Great8Cam]

He has more work to do with his skating. He looks very gangly and one of the scouting reports speaks about his lateral skating and edge work needing improvement and that doesn’t surprise me. The problem with young kids who have been so much bigger through the years is that they rely on their size so much and they don’t put in the work on skating. They also say that he has good hands in close and this is another reason why kids his size don’t work on their skating as much.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

He has the feel of a 3rd or 4th liner at best. Big body and not good skating. But he can improve on his skating if he gets a power skating coach. It does wonders for these guys that do use them and don’t think that just because they were drafted or they are in the show that they don’t need to improve.

If he can be a third line PF that's already at the upper echelon of expectations. Most of these second rounders don't even make it.

 

[16Skippy]

I really like this pick at 34. Bobby Mac had him ranked at 19, the other rankings I’ve seen had him in the 20s.

I’m not really worried about his low point totals last year either. He’s super young for this draft, if he was a bit more than one month younger he wouldn’t even be eligible this year.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

He has more work to do with his skating. He looks very gangly and one of the scouting reports speaks about his lateral skating and edge work needing improvement and that doesn’t surprise me. The problem with young kids who have been so much bigger through the years is that they rely on their size so much and they don’t put in the work on skating. They also say that he has good hands in close and this is another reason why kids his size don’t work on their skating as much.

He said in the interviews that he knows he needs to further continue working on his skating. Given that everyone says how much he already improved past summer working with Shelley Kettles (that former figure skater lady), I'd say that the work ethic at least is there.

Anyway he has a very good chance to be a big physical 3rd or 4th liner, which is always useful, especially in the playoffs. And then there's the small chance that you get really lucky and in 5-6 years he develops into a Blake Wheeler or a Corey Perry, in which case we just got one of the biggest steals in the draft.
At 11th or 15th overall, don't want. At 34, why not.

 

[Naz]

I don’t know anything about him but I hope we didn’t just pick him because he’s “big”.

You will definitely like Serron very hard worker, goes into the corners may need to work on his skating but has improved in his 2nd year with the Oshawa Generals, this kid is still growing and when he puts on some weight watch out he is going to be a monster. I'm glad I have the opportunity to watch him develop here in Oshawa and soon to be a fan favorite in Florida

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

You will definitely like Serron very hard worker, goes into the corners may need to work on his skating but has improved in his 2nd year with the Oshawa Generals, this kid is still growing and when he puts on some weight watch out he is going to be a monster. I'm glad I have the opportunity to watch him develop here in Oshawa and soon to be a fan favorite in Florida

I hope so. I just wonder if he’ll be able to keep up the pace of the NHL.

 

[Android 16]

Can't skate for crap. That's what will keep him on the bench or out of the NHL.

He seems like a great kid, but he said he thinks in 2-3 years he'll be force in the NHL or something to that effect. That's very bold. Crouse said he's a more skilled Lucic. These kids really like to project themselves. Crouse was given ice time 2 years ago and he couldn't produce. In 11 games he scored once last season. AHL numbers look regular. And Crouse at 18 was a better skater than Noel at 18. Tallon better hope he develops some wheels or he'll never make it and it'll end up an obvious waste of a pick.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Can't skate for crap. That's what will keep him on the bench or out of the NHL.

He seems like a great kid, but he said he thinks in 2-3 years he'll be force in the NHL or something to that effect. That's very bold. Crouse said he's a more skilled Lucic. These kids really like to project themselves. Crouse was given ice time last season and he couldn't produce. Crouse at 18 was a better skater than Noel at 18. Tallon better hope he develops some wheels or he'll never make it and it'll end up an obvious waste of a pick.

He should just keep his nose to the grindstone, a classic case of pride comes before a fall. However I wouldn't worry about his attitude at this stage because it seems that it's going to take at least three years for him to get a taste of the show and then it's still an uphill battle if Dalé keeps the prospect pool full.

 

[pb1300]

Can't skate for crap. That's what will keep him on the bench or out of the NHL.

He seems like a great kid, but he said he thinks in 2-3 years he'll be force in the NHL or something to that effect. That's very bold. Crouse said he's a more skilled Lucic. These kids really like to project themselves. Crouse was given ice time 2 years ago and he couldn't produce. In 11 games he scored once last season. AHL numbers look regular. And Crouse at 18 was a better skater than Noel at 18. Tallon better hope he develops some wheels or he'll never make it and it'll end up an obvious waste of a pick.

What do you mean he can’t skate for crap? His skating improved from last year, and was seen as a strength of his. They even mentioned it during the draft, how it went from a disadvantage, to a strength of his. He obviously needs to improve on it, which he knows already, but it’s hardly crap.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

You have about 20% chance of landing an nhl player in the second round. Those are terrible odds.

When 4 out of 5 guys picked don't even make it I'd rather gamble (which this really wasn't since he was considered to be a first rounder) with someone who at least has a high ceiling.

 

[GermanPanther]

You have about 20% chance of landing an nhl player in the second round. Those are terrible odds.

When 4 out of 5 guys picked don't even make it I'd rather gamble (which this really wasn't since he was considered to be a first rounder) with someone who at least has a high ceiling.

Why you have only a 20% Chance? I dont understand where those calculation comes from?
It belongs to every Player self to make the Best out of it, with the Things you might do as best. Most Times young Player try to find there Roles, even if teh Role doesnt even fit there Game.
I know from Tom Kühnhackl, he thought of himself as a Scorer in the NHL, Years after playing NHL/AHL he recognise use his Body and work on this, gives him more chance to play the NHL then still try to be a scorer.

In my definition there is no chance of max. There is always a Chance, but special young Players must find or get as quickly a Role they fit them. When even a 7th Rounder can reach the NHL then there is always a chance if you willed.

Would you like to post or give this odd calculation Trocheck, who was a 2nd Rounder? That he had only 20% chance to get into the NHL.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Why you have only a 20% Chance? I dont understand where those calculation comes from?

It's statistics.
From 2005-2012:
38% second round forwards+dmen played at least 100 NHL games
28% played at least 200 games (ignored 2012 draft)
22% played at least 300 games (ignored 2012 and 2011 draft; still a bit skewed as it ignores guys like Petro and Pysyk who'll almost certainly play 300+ games but haven't yet)

(On a sidenote, 19% second round goalies drafted over 2005-2011 played at least 200 NHL games, 33% played at least 100 games and 38% played at least 50 games.)

In other words - nowadays, you have about 40% chance to draft a player in round 2 that will play 100+ games and roughly 22% chance of drafting a guy that'll play 300+ NHL games.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Why you have only a 20% Chance? I dont understand where those calculation comes from?
It belongs to every Player self to make the Best out of it, with the Things you might do as best. Most Times young Player try to find there Roles, even if teh Role doesnt even fit there Game.
I know from Tom Kühnhackl, he thought of himself as a Scorer in the NHL, Years after playing NHL/AHL he recognise use his Body and work on this, gives him more chance to play the NHL then still try to be a scorer.

In my definition there is no chance of max. There is always a Chance, but special young Players must find or get as quickly a Role they fit them. When even a 7th Rounder can reach the NHL then there is always a chance if you willed.

Would you like to post or give this odd calculation Trocheck, who was a 2nd Rounder? That he had only 20% chance to get into the NHL.

It's just statistics. You can't really argue about it, it's a historical fact. Obviously you never know who makes it so every once in a while you get guys Trocheck.

I think at the draft they usedthree full seasons as a marker for being a successful pick. And in the last 20 years or so only 22% of second rounders fit that criteria.

 

[16Skippy]

It's just statistics. You can't really argue about it, it's a historical fact. Obviously you never know who makes it so every once in a while you get guys Trocheck.

I think at the draft they usedthree full seasons as a marker for being a successful pick. And in the last 20 years or so only 22% of second rounders fit that criteria.

Yea they showed a graphic during the draft showing what % of players from each round were "hits" (3 seasons or X amount of games, I forget). From what I can recall 1st rounders had 56% chance of being a hit and 2nd rounders 22% chance.

If anyone can find it please share, all I found were articles like this from Yost or Cullen.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

 

[BabyBennettov]

Can't skate for scrap ? This Noel kid... Seriously ?

Why do second-rounder only pan out at a 20-30% rate ?

...

Man... Are people on this board actually watching the game, learning the game or know the game ? Or do you just have an opinion to share, like everybody has a nose, a tongue or a hole ?

Crazy and depressing... Really...

 

[Dread Clawz]

What do you mean he can’t skate for crap? His skating improved from last year, and was seen as a strength of his. They even mentioned it during the draft, how it went from a disadvantage, to a strength of his. He obviously needs to improve on it, which he knows already, but it’s hardly crap.

Yeah, he is actually a great skater for a kid his size. He is known for having a powerful stride, and that makes up for his lack of explosive acceleration. He needs more work on his agility and quickness, but it's still not that bad, and his straight line skating is very good, one of the best in the draft. It's not just from my own observations, it's also from ohl scouts. "Can absolutely fly" is one quote. Also, "North /South, I think he is one of the most powerful skaters in the OHL. Not too many guys will beat him in a straight line." That's not a player who can't skate.

Also, keep trying to pigeon hole Noel as a 4th liner, but the reality is he doesn't fit in your pigeon hole. OHL scout "Complete power forward that has more skill than he's given credit for. Think of Tom Wilson with more skill and less fights." Yes we've had a couple power forward busts in Anthony Stewart and Lawson Crouse, but the reality is Noel has immense upside. He may not reach it, but it's absurd to write him off or pigeon hole him at this point.

 

[Sports24-7]

I won't pretend to have known anything about this kid, but the scout's quote they used on NHL Network when he was picked, I believe, was "the sky is the limit". I'm not sure why people are suggesting he has a low ceiling.

 

[ShootIt]

Would you like to post or give this odd calculation Trocheck, who was a 2nd Rounder? That he had only 20% chance to get into the NHL.

Trocheck was drafted in the 3rd round, fwiw.

A Draftee's Chances

Some stats per 10-15 draft slots, from mid 90's to mid 00's

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131
Chances of # pick reaching the NHL/which line they play on.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

I won't pretend to have known anything about this kid, but the scout's quote they used on NHL Network when he was picked, I believe, was "the sky is the limit". I'm not sure why people are suggesting he has a low ceiling.

Yep, supposedly he's extremely raw and a long-term project, but "his ceiling is a first line power forward capable of taking over games". That's some ceiling.
Question is obviously can he reach it, but with a 2nd round pick it's worth the gamble.

 

[GermanPanther]

Thanks to all for the static posting, but again hard to Discuss in waht you believe more.
In the will and Potential of a Player and his self Confidence to get into the NHL. Or did you believe in hiatorical stuff and analytics who says, this and this Player makes the NHL those not, never known what happens to them in the Future. Or how the developing their personality.

Sure Numbers are Numbers, but still there was and are enough Players in the NHL who proves the will and Ability makes you a NHL Player.
That´s why i have personal Problems with those stats, stats on Daily NHL Games are something different.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

Here's a shift by shift look at him from March

Serron Noel vs Peterborough | Mar 16 2018