Pre-Game Talk: Series Discussion: WC Qualifier - Edmonton Oilers (5) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (12)

Who wins the series?


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Stoneman89

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Feb 8, 2008
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Two possible great outcomes out of three for Oiler fans.

First, we beat the Hawks, and then go deep into the playoffs, with the possibility of winning it all.

Second, we lose to the Hawks, but win the lottery.

Third, we lose to the Hawks and fail to get that pick.
 

Shaquille Oatmeal

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Jun 30, 2015
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I wonder how many of these guys will come out of isolation with a beer gut like me. I've never had one before. I'm usually a finely tuned machine, nothing but solid steel and sex appeal.

I predict injuries, and lots of them jumping into meaningful 'playoff' games after a 3 month hiatus.
 
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Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,205
21,402
I wonder how many of these guys will come out of isolation with a beer gut like me. I've never had one before. I'm usually a finely tuned machine, nothing but solid steel and sex appeal.

I predict injuries, and lots of them jumping into meaningful 'playoff' games after a 3 month hiatus.
The typical training camp injury is groin pulls. I could see a lot of those happening.
 
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Ritchie Valens

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Sep 24, 2007
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I wonder how many of these guys will come out of isolation with a beer gut like me. I've never had one before. I'm usually a finely tuned machine, nothing but solid steel and sex appeal.

I predict injuries, and lots of them jumping into meaningful 'playoff' games after a 3 month hiatus.

Imagine guys like MacKinnon, Kadri, Landeskog...we could rename them the Colorado Flabalanche.
 

Porkleaker

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Mar 19, 2017
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I wonder how many of these guys will come out of isolation with a beer gut like me. I've never had one before. I'm usually a finely tuned machine, nothing but solid steel and sex appeal.

I predict injuries, and lots of them jumping into meaningful 'playoff' games after a 3 month hiatus.

lmao, same I packed on a good 25-30lbs, damn you beer!
 

commie

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Jul 30, 2005
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Two possible great outcomes out of three for Oiler fans.

First, we beat the Hawks, and then go deep into the playoffs, with the possibility of winning it all.

Second, we lose to the Hawks, but win the lottery.

Third, we lose to the Hawks and fail to get that pick.

I would say all three outcomes are good. Oilers are in a win-win situation. Even in the 3rd scenario, where they lose to the Hawks and fail to win the #1 pick, they still move up from drafting in #20 range to #12-15 range. Definitely a significant improvement in quality of draft prospects.
 
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Draiskull

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Oct 26, 2005
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I would say all three outcomes are good. Oilers are in a win-win situation. Even in the 3rd scenario, where they lose to the Hawks and fail to win the #1 pick, they still move up from drafting in #20 range to #12-15 range. Definitely a significant improvement in quality of draft prospects.
Yup, worst scenario is beating the Hawks but then losing in first round. It would still be a great experience for our young team.
 

CycloneSweep

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Sep 27, 2017
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Imma do a series of posts comparing teams line by line. Lines based off season and fully healthy. Numbers all 5v5

Top Line

Edmonton: Ennis - McDavid - Kassian
Goals- 47
Points- 109
Corsi%- 49%
xGF%- 48.92


Chicago: Debrincat - Toews - Saad
Goals- 34
Points- 94
Corsi%- 58.62
xGF%- 54.67

Both these lines haven't been together for long.

In a playoff series I feel like these lines could go even. Individually Chicago's wingers have the edge on Edmonton's for this line. Debrincats regular offense is much higher than Ennis and Saad is all around a better player than Kassian. The interesting matchup here and will make or break it is the centers.

McDavid
CF/60- 55.36
CA/60- 60.13
xGF/60- 2.58
xGA/60- 2.78
HDCF/60- 13.47
HDCA/60- 12.78

Toews
CF/60- 61.92
CA/60- 63.32
xGF/60- 2.56
xGA/60- 2.95
HDCF/60- 12.84
HDCA/60- 14.31

Based on these numbers, Toews is a higher event player this year but gets less done offensively actual number wise.

I think these lines are very evenly matched. McDavid is better than Toews but I take the Chicago wingers here over the Edmonton one.

First Line Advantage: Even
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
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Waterloo Ontario
Imma do a series of posts comparing teams line by line. Lines based off season and fully healthy. Numbers all 5v5

Top Line

Edmonton: Ennis - McDavid - Kassian
Goals- 47
Points- 109
Corsi%- 49%
xGF%- 48.92


Chicago: Debrincat - Toews - Saad
Goals- 34
Points- 94
Corsi%- 58.62
xGF%- 54.67

Both these lines haven't been together for long.

In a playoff series I feel like these lines could go even. Individually Chicago's wingers have the edge on Edmonton's for this line. Debrincats regular offense is much higher than Ennis and Saad is all around a better player than Kassian. The interesting matchup here and will make or break it is the centers.

McDavid
CF/60- 55.36
CA/60- 60.13
xGF/60- 2.58
xGA/60- 2.78
HDCF/60- 13.47
HDCA/60- 12.78

Toews
CF/60- 61.92
CA/60- 63.32
xGF/60- 2.56
xGA/60- 2.95
HDCF/60- 12.84
HDCA/60- 14.31

Based on these numbers, Toews is a higher event player this year but gets less done offensively actual number wise.

I think these lines are very evenly matched. McDavid is better than Toews but I take the Chicago wingers here over the Edmonton one.

First Line Advantage: Even

There is no one in the league that is more of a high event player than McDavid. This shows how these stats do not really correspond to individual attributes.
 

CycloneSweep

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Sep 27, 2017
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There is no one in the league that is more of a high event player than McDavid. This shows how these stats do not really correspond to individual attributes.
By high event I mean Corsi and chances wise both ways. That's at least normally how advanced stats use the phrase. Toews has a ton of movement both ways. McDavid definitely still has more high event chances than Toews but also has lower amount of chances against.

My argument here is still that McDavid has a very good advantage to Toews however Toews wingers are better so I believe it's a wash on which line is better
 
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Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
25,442
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Waterloo Ontario
By high event I mean Corsi and chances wise both ways. That's at least normally how advanced stats use the phrase. Toews has a ton of movement both ways. McDavid definitely still has more high event chances than Toews but also has lower amount of chances against.

My argument here is still that McDavid has a very good advantage to Toews however Toews wingers are better so I believe it's a wash on which line is better
I understand what high event means in this context and what Corsi etc tell you. The problem is a direct comparison of two players like this. The stats you quote are very much team stats rather than individual. Of course the individual influences the stats in varying degrees. But no advance stats comparison will change the fact that McDavid is a substantially better player than the current version of Toews.
 
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CycloneSweep

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Sep 27, 2017
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I understand what high event means in this context and what Corsi etc tell you. The problem is a direct comparison of two players like this. The stats you quote are very much team stats rather than individual. Of course the individual influences the stats in varying degrees. But no advance stats comparison will change the fact that McDavid is a substantially better player than the current version of Toews.
Am I at all disputing that McDavid is a substantially better player? They both have a similar xGF but McDavid being the better player gets much better results out if it because he is much more skilled. The numbers back up that McDavid is a better player. I haven't once said Toews is better or close, my exact words is "McDavid has a very good advantage over Toews". My argument is that Toews has substantially better wingers and they even the lines out.
This goes with the constant theme here that McDavid needs better wingers.
I give you a hint on the one I'm doing with the second line ...*hint ours is miles better*
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,442
19,575
Waterloo Ontario
Am I at all disputing that McDavid is a substantially better player? They both have a similar xGF but McDavid being the better player gets much better results out if it because he is much more skilled. The numbers back up that McDavid is a better player. I haven't once said Toews is better or close, my exact words is "McDavid has a very good advantage over Toews". My argument is that Toews has substantially better wingers and they even the lines out.
This goes with the constant theme here that McDavid needs better wingers.
I give you a hint on the one I'm doing with the second line ...*hint ours is miles better*
I agree that as listed Toews has the better wingers. But there is more to this than 5 vs 5 in terms of comparing the two players directly. If the Oilers first line as stated plays the Toews first line even 5 vs 5 given the wingers advantage, McDavid's ridiculous advantage on the pp really matters. Moreover, Ennis is brand new with McDavid and if playoff Kassian shows up things could change quickly.
 

duul

Registered User
Jun 21, 2010
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I agree that as listed Toews has the better wingers. But there is more to this than 5 vs 5 in terms of comparing the two players directly. If the Oilers first line as stated plays the Toews first line even 5 vs 5 given the wingers advantage, McDavid's ridiculous advantage on the pp really matters. Moreover, Ennis is brand new with McDavid and if playoff Kassian shows up things could change quickly.
While Kassian looked good in that series against San Jose at times, I don't think 'playoff Kassian' should be a thing.

Dude has 3 points in 21 playoff games.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,442
19,575
Waterloo Ontario
While Kassian looked good in that series against San Jose at times, I don't think 'playoff Kassian' should be a thing.

Dude has 3 points in 21 playoff games.
I am not really looking so much at the points. It was his physical game that made a big difference. Chicago has a small and rather inexperienced defense. Kassian playing like he did throughout the whole 2016 playoffs could open up a lot f space for McDavid.
 

CycloneSweep

Registered User
Sep 27, 2017
47,831
39,718
I agree that as listed Toews has the better wingers. But there is more to this than 5 vs 5 in terms of comparing the two players directly. If the Oilers first line as stated plays the Toews first line even 5 vs 5 given the wingers advantage, McDavid's ridiculous advantage on the pp really matters. Moreover, Ennis is brand new with McDavid and if playoff Kassian shows up things could change quickly.
McDavids advantage on the PP doesn't come into effect for a line against line comparison

All I am doing is a line against line comparison, pp is an entirely different beast
 
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