Sergei Bobrovsky - Top Cop

[major major]

I seem to remember seeing a list of goalie salaries, and Bob was in the top 5 highest paid. That is in the last year of his contract. Not bad.
I think the perception of disrespect probably comes from which perspective you are approaching the negotiation:
Bob : winningest goalie in CBJ history + 2 Vezinas = big raise
FO: Playoff record + well paid on current contract = little bump

I actually can see both sides' points.

I should clarify that respect and $ aren't fully overlapping for me. What irks me, and I'm sure what irks Bob, is when he gets the blame for team failures. When the team puts it's goalie in an unfair number of 4v5 situations, or when the team employs a goalie-killing strategy, as it has for the last couple years, you have to give the goalie some credit for the situation. If you're not giving the goalie credit for the situation they're in, then they are better off going somewhere else.

 

[KJ Dangler]

I should clarify that respect and $ aren't fully overlapping for me. What irks me, and I'm sure what irks Bob, is when he gets the blame for team failures. When the team puts it's goalie in an unfair number of 4v5 situations, or when the team employs a goalie-killing strategy, as it has for the last couple years, you have to give the goalie some credit for the situation. If you're not giving the goalie credit for the situation they're in, then they are better off going somewhere else.

I would argue that his 2 vezinas are him getting that credit . It’s not his team or defenders getting the credit . He has no problem accepting the good . He deserves every bit of the criticism for his abymysal playoff performances . 5-14 record with a 3.49 gaa is HIS record. If he wants that narrative to change , he needs to perform in the playoffs , like he does the regular season . Thus far , he’s not remotely the same goalie in the playoffs . Perhaps what we are seeing play out with his antics with Panarin, and on press day , are why he’s such a flop in the playoffs . He’s coming off as a head case . And thus far in the preseason , he’s looking like playoff Bob , 5 goals against on Sunday , 3 in half the game , the game before .

To have success at the goalie position , requires good players in front of the goalie . That’s why most here are against paying a goalie the kind of money he’s looking for . Any good goalie , can look great , if he has good defenders , and a team concept of defense first .

 

[major major]

I would argue that his 2 vezinas are him getting that credit . It’s not his team or defenders getting the credit . He has no problem accepting the good . He deserves every bit of the criticism for his abymysal playoff performances . 5-14 record with a 3.49 gaa is HIS record. If he wants that narrative to change , he needs to perform in the playoffs , like he does the regular season . Thus far , he’s not remotely the same goalie in the playoffs . Perhaps what we are seeing play out with his antics with Panarin, and on press day , are why he’s such a flop in the playoffs . He’s coming off as a head case . And thus far in the preseason , he’s looking like playoff Bob , 5 goals against on Sunday , 3 in half the game , the game before .

To have success at the goalie position , requires good players in front of the goalie . That’s why most here are against paying a goalie the kind of money he’s looking for . Any good goalie , can look great , if he has good defenders , and a team concept of defense first .

I argue that Bobrovsky is being blamed for team failures.

And you reply that the "5-14 record with a 3.49 GAA is HIS record."

I rest my case. (not really)

 

[thebus88]

McD and Bob alone would be enough for EDM to make the playoffs.

McD on the CBJ (without Bobrovsky) alone would be enough for the CBJ to make the playoffs.

 

[Crede777]

When healthy, Bob carries a team to the playoffs. That alone is worth $10 million per year.

 

[CBJx614]

McD on the CBJ (without Bobrovsky) alone would be enough for the CBJ to make the playoffs.

We were so close to winning that lottery too.

From an old thread on the EDM page

I read up on the lottery system and format. It's available on nhl.com

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/pdfs/NHL-Lottery-2015-Look-Up-Table-Numerical.pdf

I was interested to see who was in the running on the last of the four balls selected.
The first three were 5,14, and 6 in that order.

That means, when re-arranged in numeric order, the last ball final outcome possibilities were as such:

1-5-6-14 Edmonton
2-5-6-14 Toronto
3-5-6-14 Buffalo
4-5-6-14 Carolina
5-6-7-14 Toronto
5-6-8-14 Toronto
5-6-9-14 Columbus
5-6-10-14 Edmonton
5-6-11-14 Buffalo
5-6-12-14 Buffalo
5-6-13-14 Toronto

So of the remaining 11 possible balls, we had 2, Buffalo had 3, Toronto had 4, Carolina had 1 and Columbus had 1.

The last ball came as #1.
The rest is history.

 

[thebus88]

I should clarify that respect and $ aren't fully overlapping for me. What irks me, and I'm sure what irks Bob, is when he gets the blame for team failures. When the team puts it's goalie in an unfair number of 4v5 situations, or when the team employs a goalie-killing strategy, as it has for the last couple years, you have to give the goalie some credit for the situation. If you're not giving the goalie credit for the situation they're in, then they are better off going somewhere else.

​

And, this is all untrue. You are attempting to make it seem like the CBJ's actual defenseman or the 'team defense' is something less than average. Or, that the team plays some extraordinary undisciplined offensive way that 15-20 other NHL teams don't also play. All fake news. What I am saying is the complete opposite. The team has a greater positive affect on his numbers than what you think. We will see in 13 months, at the most.

When healthy, Bob carries a team to the playoffs. That alone is worth $10 million per year.

Again, false.

He doesn't and never has "carried" the Blue Jackets, so where are you getting this?​

 

[Viqsi]

And, this is all untrue. You are attempting to make it seem like the CBJ's actual defenseman or the 'team defense' is something less than average. Or, that the team plays some extraordinary undisciplined offensive way that 15-20 other NHL teams don't also play. All fake news. What I am saying is the complete opposite. The team has a greater positive affect on his numbers than what you think. We will see in 13 months, at the most.

The talent exists. It's just being used for other purposes. I find it very strange that you seem unable to recognize this, given how often you talk about how one must closely watch the game. Yes, our boys put in heroic efforts to make that possible with good coverage and backchecking, but nobody's perfect, and it gets exploited more often than most. That's where Bob comes in.

Again, false.

He doesn't and never has "carried" the Blue Jackets, so where are you getting this?

He kind of does, after a fashion - he's why we go from "bubble team" to "possible contender".

The problem is that, depending on who reads this post and chooses to respond, I'm going to be yelled at either for describing this team as potentially a bubble team without him, or for describing this team as a possible contender with him, or both, because there's plenty of people who are perfectly willing to snidely dismiss both because of what they "know" they're "seeing" with highly selective data and observation.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Bob is only as good as the players in front of them. Nearly every goalie in the league is highly talented , and can thrive in the right system, with great defenseman , and also can look really bad if they play in a loose system , and have players not concerned with playing tight defensively .Look no further than yesterday , Bob gave up 5 goals , the game before , he gave up 3 , in half a game . These dudes get way too much credit for their success . And that’s why you rarely see goalies drafted high, in a draft . I’m not saying that some goalies aren’t better than others , I’m just stating that much of a goalies success is based on the personnel in front of them , the system they play in , and how they are coached to play .

 

[major major]

Bob is only as good as the players in front of them. Nearly every goalie in the league is highly talented , and can thrive in the right system, with great defenseman , and also can look really bad if they play in a loose system , and have players not concerned with playing tight defensively .Look no further than yesterday , Bob gave up 5 goals , the game before , he gave up 3 , in half a game . These dudes get way too much credit for their success . And that’s why you rarely see goalies drafted high, in a draft . I’m not saying that some goalies aren’t better than others , I’m just stating that much of a goalies success is based on the personnel in front of them , the system they play in , and how they are coached to play .

Yes, this is why Bob is even better than he's getting credit for - his last two seasons have been behind the loosy-goosy safe-is-death system. The "control" keeper in Korpisalo is giving up almost a full goal more per game.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Yes, this is why Bob is even better than he's getting credit for - his last two seasons have been behind the loosy-goosy safe-is-death system. The "control" keeper in Korpisalo is giving up almost a full goal more per game.

Korpi definitely has had his struggles , most of that was his technique that looked totally different then when he first came up , and played lights out for a season . Some of it is his lack of playing time as well. The jackets were 3rd against in goals 2 seasons ago , and I believe 9th last year . Torts teams have always focused on defense first , and always been pretty good defensively . Yet you always are trying to sell that Torts system is not a defense based system first . You know I’m not a fan and of Torts system , of letting the defenseman always jump up , and the forwards always having to think defense first , and cover for them , but I think it’s disingenuous to say that Torts coaching style doesn’t aid the goalie .

 

[major major]

Korpi definitely has had his struggles , most of that was his technique that looked totally different then when he first came up , and played lights out for a season . Some of it is his lack of playing time as well. The jackets were 3rd against in goals 2 seasons ago , and I believe 9th last year . Torts teams have always focused on defense first , and always been pretty good defensively . Yet you always are trying to sell that Torts system is not a defense based system first . You know I’m not a fan and of Torts system , of letting the defenseman always jump up , and the forwards always having to think defense first , and cover for them , but I think it’s disingenuous to say that Torts coaching style doesn’t aid the goalie .

This explains part of your confusion. Torts' system has changed. He began his career with safe is death, which was very hard on his goalies in Tampa. I've already mentioned his long list of sub .900 goalies. When he went to the Rangers he ditched that in favor of a safe defensive system. When he came here it started more defensively but in the last two seasons has shifted back to a highly aggressive system. The shot charts show the Jackets giving up a very high number of cross crease plays and high danger chances. I don't know if there's an odd-man rush statistic, but I'm sure it's gone up.

 

[EspenK]

Assuming the cap continues to rise 3% per year and Bob wants 8 years an average 10% cap hit would be somewhere between 9 & 9.3 per year. (Rough calculation). Throw in signing bonuses as a factor and protection for Bob against a possible lockout in 2020 and it is a major commitment on the part of the Jackets.

Werenski, Jones, PLD will all need new deals within the period and again a rough calculation would seem to indicate that their next deals will eat up about 20-25 mill per year. Wennberg, Anderson and Bjorkstrand are wild cards. Throw in a miracle of Bread re-signing and there is another 10 or so.

For me, if Bob won't take 9 to 9.5 for 5 years (maybe 6 at the outside) I'd say see you and throw the savings toward Stone, Duchene, Skinner, Lee or someone at those levels.

A good goalie will be sufficient if the offense improves along with the development of the young defensemen.

 

[MAHJ71]

Assuming the cap continues to rise 3% per year and Bob wants 8 years an average 10% cap hit would be somewhere between 9 & 9.3 per year. (Rough calculation). Throw in signing bonuses as a factor and protection for Bob against a possible lockout in 2020 and it is a major commitment on the part of the Jackets.

Werenski, Jones, PLD will all need new deals within the period and again a rough calculation would seem to indicate that their next deals will eat up about 20-25 mill per year. Wennberg, Anderson and Bjorkstrand are wild cards. Throw in a miracle of Bread re-signing and there is another 10 or so.

For me, if Bob won't take 9 to 9.5 for 5 years (maybe 6 at the outside) I'd say see you and throw the savings toward Stone, Duchene, Skinner, Lee or someone at those levels.

A good goalie will be sufficient if the offense improves along with the development of the young defensemen.

9.5 for 6 years is as high as I'll go. Or a 7th year if the contract is front loaded.

 

[major major]

Assuming the cap continues to rise 3% per year and Bob wants 8 years an average 10% cap hit would be somewhere between 9 & 9.3 per year. (Rough calculation). Throw in signing bonuses as a factor and protection for Bob against a possible lockout in 2020 and it is a major commitment on the part of the Jackets.

Werenski, Jones, PLD will all need new deals within the period and again a rough calculation would seem to indicate that their next deals will eat up about 20-25 mill per year. Wennberg, Anderson and Bjorkstrand are wild cards. Throw in a miracle of Bread re-signing and there is another 10 or so.

For me, if Bob won't take 9 to 9.5 for 5 years (maybe 6 at the outside) I'd say see you and throw the savings toward Stone, Duchene, Skinner, Lee or someone at those levels.

A good goalie will be sufficient if the offense improves along with the development of the young defensemen.

5 years is awkward - for one I think Bob will still be great in 5 years, but it's also not short enough to accommodate Jones' extension. The other guys you mention aren't as important - but Jones will likely be making $10m+ after another 4 years, and he's one guy I expect to be more important than Bob at that point. Dubois, Werenski, who knows, Anderson, Wennberg, Bjorkstrand, not in the same neighborhood.

I'd offer Bob $10.5m at 4 years, and something like $9m x 6 or $8m x 8.

 

[JacketsDavid]

This explains part of your confusion. Torts' system has changed. He began his career with safe is death, which was very hard on his goalies in Tampa. I've already mentioned his long list of sub .900 goalies. When he went to the Rangers he ditched that in favor of a safe defensive system. When he came here it started more defensively but in the last two seasons has shifted back to a highly aggressive system. The shot charts show the Jackets giving up a very high number of cross crease plays and high danger chances. I don't know if there's an odd-man rush statistic, but I'm sure it's gone up.

I'm not sure if I agree with my eyes or with data. If we are playing an aggressive system then offensively we lack a lot of skill/finishers - yes we take a lot of shots (3rd in league) but we were 16th in goals scored.
Defense end of ice we don't give up that many shots (11th best) with our goals allowed being 10th best.

You can interpret those as you like but my meaning would be we take a lot of shots, but we are defensive first. We don't allow many shots. Now you're data shows we give up a lot of high risk shots, but we don't give up many shots and our goals allowed are right in line with what we would expect from those numbers. Why those high risk shots I can't answer but we are still defensive first.

I did not account for packing out special teams just the pure shots and goals.

 

[thebus88]

9.5 for 6 years is as high as I'll go. Or a 7th year if the contract is front loaded.

f*** man, how do you expect him to live on that kind of money....?

Slap in the face, if you ask me.

 

[major major]

I'm not sure if I agree with my eyes or with data. If we are playing an aggressive system then offensively we lack a lot of skill/finishers - yes we take a lot of shots (3rd in league) but we were 16th in goals scored.
Defense end of ice we don't give up that many shots (11th best) with our goals allowed being 10th best.

You can interpret those as you like but my meaning would be we take a lot of shots, but we are defensive first. We don't allow many shots. Now you're data shows we give up a lot of high risk shots, but we don't give up many shots and our goals allowed are right in line with what we would expect from those numbers. Why those high risk shots I can't answer but we are still defensive first.

I did not account for packing out special teams just the pure shots and goals.

It's a quality problem, not a quantity problem. When you press forward a lot, with the D constantly pinching, it keeps the puck out of your end for long stretches. But when it does go back, it's an odd man rush.

No the Jackets are not a defensive first team. The defencemen are too forward leaning for that.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

2018-19 Goalie Tiers: Anonymous panel of GMs and coaches...

Anonymous poll of 10 coaches and GM's. Bob is #1 goalie in the league according to them.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

He doesn't and never has "carried" the Blue Jackets, so where are you getting this?​

Of course he has. Of course.

 

[thebus88]

I'm not sure if I agree with my eyes or with data. If we are playing an aggressive system then offensively we lack a lot of skill/finishers - yes we take a lot of shots (3rd in league) but we were 16th in goals scored.
Defense end of ice we don't give up that many shots (11th best) with our goals allowed being 10th best.

You can interpret those as you like but my meaning would be we take a lot of shots, but we are defensive first. We don't allow many shots. Now you're data shows we give up a lot of high risk shots, but we don't give up many shots and our goals allowed are right in line with what we would expect from those numbers. Why those high risk shots I can't answer but we are still defensive first.

BANG BANG bang bang BANG

Also, I want to point out that these "high risk shots", ARE NOT ALWAYS actually high risk. They are just what the "MODEL" considers "high risk". Something I attempted to point out during the 'Great Debate of Advanced Statistics' earlier in the summer is that there are MANY literal on-ice variables that the "models" do not (and I argue literally CAN NOT) take into account.

Here is another example. Tell me if its a "high danger shot", according to you and also according to "the models".

Shot from the point, Bob leaves the rebound 3 feet outside the crease. Both Murray and Savard get sticks and bodies on the opposing player out front, but he manages to get a 4mph shot off that cant leave the ice.

Another acrobatic (aka out of control) rebound "high danger" save for "Vezina Bob"? Please.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I'm not sure if I agree with my eyes or with data. If we are playing an aggressive system then offensively we lack a lot of skill/finishers - yes we take a lot of shots (3rd in league) but we were 16th in goals scored.
Defense end of ice we don't give up that many shots (11th best) with our goals allowed being 10th best.

It's a quality problem, not a quantity problem. When you press forward a lot, with the D constantly pinching, it keeps the puck out of your end for long stretches. But when it does go back, it's an odd man rush.
.

@JacketsDavid -I think this is accurate. It would seem that with the DMen pressing the issue, our scoring would/should be higher and our lack of finishers is an issue. To Major's point, the aggressive D playbook often leaves Bob hanging out to dry and IMO he's been good at bailing out the team in these situations.

My own take is that the risk/reward hasn't proven to be great - this style should produce more offense. And an average goalie woud worsen the risk/reward as more goals are surrendered.

This is what makes Bob's contract situation such a tough decision as I don't see this team as a playoff team without Bob unless we have more finishers who in turn allow tighter Dplay/slightly lesser goal-tending. That's more challenging as we will need a couple (one to replace Bread). But there's also a dollar and term limit that makes sense at goalie....but I'm rather sure Bob's wants exceed that. Maybe the open market will tell him his wants exceed the reality.

 

[Viqsi]

BANG BANG bang bang BANG

Also, I want to point out that these "high risk shots", ARE NOT ALWAYS actually high risk. They are just what the "MODEL" considers "high risk". Something I attempted to point out during the 'Great Debate of Advanced Statistics' earlier in the summer is that there are MANY literal on-ice variables that the "models" do not (and I argue literally CAN NOT) take into account.

Here is another example. Tell me if its a "high danger shot", according to you and also according to "the models".

Shot from the point, Bob leaves the rebound 3 feet outside the crease. Both Murray and Savard get sticks and bodies on the opposing player out front, but he manages to get a 4mph shot off that cant leave the ice.

Another acrobatic (aka out of control) rebound "high danger" save for "Vezina Bob"? Please.

Show me an acrobatic save and I'll show you a goaltender that was out of position.

Seriously, that's not how you determine what is and is not a "high danger shot". Not even slightly. "High danger" indicates things like, y'know, somebody uncovered in the high slot with the puck, or odd-man rushes, or things like that, as opposed to potshots from the point through traffic.

You don't see that many acrobatics from Bob because he's just that good.

 

[thebus88]

Show me an acrobatic save and I'll show you a goaltender that was out of position.

Seriously, that's not how you determine what is and is not a "high danger shot". Not even slightly. "High danger" indicates things like, y'know, somebody uncovered in the high slot with the puck, or odd-man rushes, or things like that, as opposed to potshots from the point through traffic.

You don't see that many acrobatics from Bob because he's just that good.

I think you do see "many" acrobatic saves from Bob in relation to the other goalies in the league. And, a lot of time IT IS because he is "out of control" or "out of position". More accurately, I'd say he's just a bit slow to react to certain situations. He IS then able to recover a lot of the time, which is good, but you shouldn't give him extra credit for "recovering" and making a harder save than necessary.

I also have noted in the past that I think 1 of Bobrovsky's other main issues is his problems with these so called, "potshots from the point through traffic". He has a huge problem "seeing" through traffic and handling tipped (or deflected, or whatever other word) pucks. Sometimes appears like he is "sleeping" on these shots. This is where the name "playoff Bob" comes from. Now, I know we don't want to hold HIM accountable for HIS numbers on the PK, but could this be a reason that the CBJ seem to have "issues" on the PK sometimes?

The other issue is consistency, as "playoff Bob" has and can show up in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May or June.

 

[Viqsi]

I think you do see "many" acrobatic saves from Bob in relation to the other goalies in the league. And, a lot of time IT IS because he is "out of control" or "out of position". More accurately, I'd say he's just a bit slow to react to certain situations. He IS then able to recover a lot of the time, which is good, but you shouldn't give him extra credit for "recovering" and making a harder save than necessary.

I also have noted in the past that I think 1 of Bobrovsky's other main issues is his problems with these so called, "potshots from the point through traffic". He has a huge problem "seeing" through traffic and handling tipped (or deflected, or whatever other word) pucks. Sometimes appears like he is "sleeping" on these shots. This is where the name "playoff Bob" comes from. Now, I know we don't want to hold HIM accountable for HIS numbers on the PK, but could this be a reason that the CBJ seem to have "issues" on the PK sometimes?

The other issue is consistency, as "playoff Bob" has and can show up in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May or June.

...have you ever watched any other goaltender in the League, like, ever? You're insisting he can't be great because he isn't perfect, and that's asinine. It's not the types of breakdowns so much as their frequency.