Seph's 2019 Draft + 2020 Draft + 2019 Mock Draft Extravaganza

[S E P H]

Why is Holtz at 12 in 2020? He should go top 5. Jaime Drysdale, Zion Nybeck, Helge Grans and Tim Steutzle all look like top 15 picks, while Connor Zary, Antonio Stranges, Cole Petfetti and Yaroslav Askarov ( purely because of position) don't look like top 15 picks.

I question Holtz hockey IQ, don't get me wrong he's an extremely good prospect and a lethal player. However, how much IQ does he have when the puck isn't on his stick? At the current time I think he's lacking and why I have him lower than other lists.

Nybeck in particular easily has top 7-8 talent for me. I question more his style of game and in his current body I am being more on the cautious side of him. It's not that I don't trust smaller players, but I have issues when a player plays primarily on the perimeter and a junior style of game as he does. If he's able to overcome these issues I have of him, in his draft year no doubt he will rise a lot for me.

Zary is fantastic; he's dynamic and a catalyst with the puck, I actually like him over a lot of WHLers that will be drafted in the top 10 for 2019 draft personally. Stranges is very talented, he like Nybeck have the best chances of rising into everyone's top 10 consensus lists. Perfetti is unbelievable, how you don't think he's a top 15 player is very strange (he's Mitch Marner 2.0). Askarov is the best goaltending prospect since Carey Price. If you think he's as good as Price, who went 5th overall in 2005, then having him at 8th is absolutely justified IMO.

What do you see in Case McCarthy to rank him 47?

More curious why you're questioning me at McCarthy at 47th than Henriksson at 31st? Or do you like Henriksson there? As mentioned in the OP, a lot of these players are interchangeable after 20th or so, so many lists will look quite different. I quite like McCarthy, I see him as a player who just scratched the surface this year, I think he's a bit of a late bloomer. I see a good enough IQ, first pass, and all the play in between to be a legit prospect. He's not going to wow you with his offencive ability and he's not going to be the purest shutdown guy either, but he's a well-rounded defender who does a lot of things well including physicality. I see him as a mid-pairing two-way defender who has the ability to play on the first-pairing similar to Jake Muzzin.

@Seph Great work as always. Why did you leave Heinola out of the mock after ranking him 37?

Thanks Tweaky! Honestly was just a brainfart by me, he absolutely has top 40 talent.

Many thanks for posting this.

Yup!

I personally think Söderström is a better prospect than Brännström. I see a lot of that "he just does everything well" which i really disagree with and it makes me question how much people have actually seen him play. Söderström definitely has flaws in his game and there are a couple of things he does incredibly well. I remember when people were describing Filip Forsberg in a similar way while labeling Galchenyuk as an "electrifying" player.

Surname of Soderstrom confirmed here, lol. I actually question the people who think Soderstrom is as dynamic with the puck and going forward than Brannstrom is. Soderstrom has good offencive tools that I like as a secondary PP defender in the NHL, but he seems more of a jack-of-all-trades defender than a high-calibre puck rusher that can generate plays out of nothing that Brannstrom can. Not a huge Soderstrom fan personally, even though I do consider him a 1st round talent.

Love the list!

Thanks a bunch!

 

[BSHH]

When a simple “like" is far too little, you'll find posts like mine. Thank you very much for the list, great work!

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[Favin]

NHL 2020 Very Early List
1. Alexis Lafreniere, LW (CAN) Rimouski Oceanic, LHJMQ
2. Lucas Raymond, RW (SWE) Frolunda HC, SuperElit
3. Quinton Byfield, C (CAN) Sudbury Wolves, OHL
4. Anton Lundell, C/LW (FIN) HIFK, Liiga
5. Cole Perfetti, C (CAN) Saginaw Spirit, OHL
6. Jan Mysak, LW (CZE) HC Litvinov, Czech
7. Noel Gunler, RW (SWE) Lulea HF, SuperElit
8. Yaroslav Askarov, G (RUS) SKA Varyagi Vsevolozhski, MHL
9. Connor Zary, C (CAN) Kamloops Blazers, WHL
10. Antonio Stranges, C/LW (USA) London Knights, OHL
11. Theo Rochette, C (SUI) Chicoutimi Sagueneens, LHJMQ
12. Alexander Holtz, RW (SWE) Djurgardens IF, SuperElit
13. Justin Barron, D (CAN) Halifax Mooseheads, LHJMQ
14. Marco Rossi, C (AUT) Ottawa 67’s, OHL
15. Jean-Luc Foudy, C (CAN) Windsor Spitfires, OHL
16. Marat Khusnutdinov, C (RUS) Vityaz Podolsk, MHL U17
17. Dylan Holloway, LW (CAN) Okotoks Oilers, AJHL
18. Zion Nybeck, RW (SWE) HV71, SuperElit
19. Rodion Amirov, LW (RUS) Tolpar Ufa, MHL
20. Ty Smilanic, C (USA) USNTDP, USHL
21. John-Jason Peterka, C (GER) EHC Munchen, DEL
22. Hendrix Lapierre, C (CAN) Chicoutimi Sagueneens, LHJMQ
23. Kasper Simontaival, LW (FIN) Tappara U20, SM-Liiga
24. Jake Neighbours, LW (CAN) Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL
25. Dylan Peterson, C (USA) USNTDP, USHL
26. Mavrik Bourque, C (CAN) Shawinigan Cataracters, LHJMQ
27. Dawson Mercer, RW (CAN) Drummondville Voltigeurs, LHJMQ
28. Seth Jarvis, RW (CAN) Portland Winterhawks, WHL
29. Kaiden Guhle, D (CAN) Prince Albert Raiders, WHL
30. Jake Sanderson, D (USA) USNTDP, USHL
31. Jamie Drysdale, D (CAN) Erie Otters, OHL

Great list. Admittedly haven't spend much time on watching 2020 cohort, but first instinct was Stranges and Holtz would probably end up higher.

1. Lafreniere
2. Ryamond
3. Holtz
4. Perfetti
5. Byfield
6. Stranges

 

[BLNY]

Applause for the effort to put all that together. Re 2020, Barron looked quite good this year for the Moose. Be interesting to see how he does his draft year.

 

[AB13]

I question Holtz hockey IQ, don't get me wrong he's an extremely good prospect and a lethal player. However, how much IQ does he have when the puck isn't on his stick? At the current time I think he's lacking and why I have him lower than other lists.

Nybeck in particular easily has top 7-8 talent for me. I question more his style of game and in his current body I am being more on the cautious side of him. It's not that I don't trust smaller players, but I have issues when a player plays primarily on the perimeter and a junior style of game as he does. If he's able to overcome these issues I have of him, in his draft year no doubt he will rise a lot for me.

Zary is fantastic; he's dynamic and a catalyst with the puck, I actually like him over a lot of WHLers that will be drafted in the top 10 for 2019 draft personally. Stranges is very talented, he like Nybeck have the best chances of rising into everyone's top 10 consensus lists. Perfetti is unbelievable, how you don't think he's a top 15 player is very strange (he's Mitch Marner 2.0). Askarov is the best goaltending prospect since Carey Price. If you think he's as good as Price, who went 5th overall in 2005, then having him at 8th is absolutely justified IMO.


More curious why you're questioning me at McCarthy at 47th than Henriksson at 31st? Or do you like Henriksson there? As mentioned in the OP, a lot of these players are interchangeable after 20th or so, so many lists will look quite different. I quite like McCarthy, I see him as a player who just scratched the surface this year, I think he's a bit of a late bloomer. I see a good enough IQ, first pass, and all the play in between to be a legit prospect. He's not going to wow you with his offencive ability and he's not going to be the purest shutdown guy either, but he's a well-rounded defender who does a lot of things well including physicality. I see him as a mid-pairing two-way defender who has the ability to play on the first-pairing similar to Jake Muzzin.


Thanks Tweaky! Honestly was just a brainfart by me, he absolutely has top 40 talent.


Yup!

Surname of Soderstrom confirmed here, lol. I actually question the people who think Soderstrom is as dynamic with the puck and going forward than Brannstrom is. Soderstrom has good offencive tools that I like as a secondary PP defender in the NHL, but he seems more of a jack-of-all-trades defender than a high-calibre puck rusher that can generate plays out of nothing that Brannstrom can. Not a huge Soderstrom fan personally, even though I do consider him a 1st round talent.


Thanks a bunch!

I do not agree at all about Holtz IQ, I think it is very good, possibly the second or third best in the draft. His vision and ability to find open scoring areas on the ice without the puck is remarkable, and he always makes the right decision. He is a very underrated playmaker too in my eyes. I don’t agree that Nybeck plays a perimeter based game at all, he is not afraid at all and drives hard to the net when given a chance. His skill, creativity and passing skating, defensive game and work ethic are all very impressive and warrant a top 10 selection in my eyes.

I think Zary is a solid player but I don’t see the offensive creativity or skill to warrant such a high selection. Stranges isn’t as skilled as most of the others around that area and his production is severely alarming and very underwhelming. Perfettis skating is not good at all and very problematic in my eyes, I think it is worse than it is made out to be, and his all round game just isn’t there yet, and compared to the many other high level prospects in the 2020 draft, I see a low floor with Perfetti, but also very high upside because of his insanely high hockey IQ.

Askarov looks very good and you make a good point, I am not sure I agree he is the best prospects since Price though.

As always, it is too early to tell, time will be the teller of course.

 

[S E P H]

When a simple “like" is far too little, you'll find posts like mine. Thank you very much for the list, great work!

Gruß,
BSHH

Thanks, I value your posts in the football forum!

I do not agree at all about Holtz IQ, I think it is very good, possibly the second or third best in the draft. His vision and ability to find open scoring areas on the ice without the puck is remarkable, and he always makes the right decision. He is a very underrated playmaker too in my eyes. I don’t agree that Nybeck plays a perimeter based game at all, he is not afraid at all and drives hard to the net when given a chance. His skill, creativity and passing skating, defensive game and work ethic are all very impressive and warrant a top 10 selection in my eyes.

I think Zary is a solid player but I don’t see the offensive creativity or skill to warrant such a high selection. Stranges isn’t as skilled as most of the others around that area and his production is severely alarming and very underwhelming. Perfettis skating is not good at all and very problematic in my eyes, I think it is worse than it is made out to be, and his all round game just isn’t there yet, and compared to the many other high level prospects in the 2020 draft, I see a high floor with Perfetti, but also very high upside because of his insanely high hockey IQ.

Askarov looks very good and you make a good point, I am not sure I agree he is the best prospects since Price though.

As always, it is too early to tell, time will be the teller of course.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. Holtz has good enough talent to be 12th overall, I suggest that being the twelfth best player out of hundreds' is pretty remarkable no? Additionally, I think being twelfth goes to show how much talent he has, I will also add that he has good enough IQ of knowing how to get in shooting positions. However, I don't see the creative playmaking yet and why I don't have him higher.

Nybeck might not be afraid playing on the bigger ice, but in the U18's especially against the NA countries he played on the outside. As I said, if he's able to expand upon his junior style into more productive tools against men he will rise a lot. You're undervaluing Zary's talent. You're also undervaluing Perfetti's talent as well. Not sure if he's as bad as a skater as you make him out to be, but his superior offencive potency in terms of catalyst in dangerous plays, stickhandling, agility, and IQ makes him pretty damn awesome at the moment. Not sure what you're trying to say about him, you criticize his skating, but then say you see a high floor and very high upside? Is that a spelling error?

 

[AB13]

Thanks, I value your posts in the football forum!


I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. Holtz has good enough talent to be 12th overall, I suggest that being the twelfth best player out of hundreds' is pretty remarkable no? Additionally, I think being twelfth goes to show how much talent he has, I will also add that he has good enough IQ of knowing how to get in shooting positions. However, I don't see the creative playmaking yet and why I don't have him higher.

Nybeck might not be afraid playing on the bigger ice, but in the U18's especially against the NA countries he played on the outside. As I said, if he's able to expand upon his junior style into more productive tools against men he will rise a lot. You're undervaluing Zary's talent. You're also undervaluing Perfetti's talent as well. Not sure if he's as bad as a skater as you make him out to be, but his superior offencive potency in terms of catalyst in dangerous plays, stickhandling, agility, and IQ makes him pretty damn awesome at the moment. Not sure what you're trying to say about him, you criticize his skating, but then say you see a high floor and very high upside? Is that a spelling error?

We will have to agree to disagree then, I do think Holtz shows of creative playmaking skills very often. As for Nybeck, I didn’t see it the same way, I didn’t think he played too much on the outside.

It was a spelling error regarding Perfetti, I think he has high upside but a very low floor because of poor skating and slightly underwhelming point production so far.

 

[GettingYourMoms]

There will be much more czech players in 1st round. I can´t imagine Jaromir Pytlik and Pavel Novak being outside of top 30

 

[NA Hockey]

We will have to agree to disagree then, I do think Holtz shows of creative playmaking skills very often. As for Nybeck, I didn’t see it the same way, I didn’t think he played too much on the outside.

It was a spelling error regarding Perfetti, I think he has high upside but a very low floor because of poor skating and slightly underwhelming point production so far.

Underwhelming point production so far for Perfetti? He had 74 points (37G and 37A) as a 16 year old in the OHL which was by far the most in the entire CHL by a 16 year old this year. Since 2010 there are only two 16 year olds that have had more points in their U17 year (McDavid and Galchenyuk) As for the skating, speed is not great agreed, but edges, maneuverability and balance is elite and his Elite IQ more than makes up for lack of burst. Makes me wonder if you have ever seen him play.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

15. Alex Newhook, C (CAN) Victoria Grizzlies, BCHL (27)

great pick for MTL. if it's not an LHD, I want Newhook

 

[AB13]

Underwhelming point production so far for Perfetti? He had 74 points (37G and 37A) as a 16 year old in the OHL which was by far the most in the entire CHL by a 16 year old this year. Since 2010 there are only two 16 year olds that have had more points in their U17 year (McDavid and Galchenyuk) As for the skating, speed is not great agreed, but edges, maneuverability and balance is elite and his Elite IQ more than makes up for lack of burst. Makes me wonder if you have ever seen him play.

Very underwhelming in comparison to Holtz and Raymond who broke all time Swedish junior scoring records, and Gunler who had a better PPG than both while also scoring at the SHL level. Underwhelming compared to Lundell who scored 19 Liiga points. Underwhelming in comparison to Jan Mysak too. His numbers are not bad but ceirtainly underwhelming in comparison to prospects he is compared too.

Looking at skating, his speed is atrocious and his edgework decent but not insanely good like with Raymond or Nybeck for example. There are many prospects that had more remarkable years than Perfetti, which does not mean he is a bad player, but considering the insane amount of high level talent I don’t see Perfetti becoming a top 10 pick.

 

[NA Hockey]

Very underwhelming in comparison to Holtz and Raymond who broke all time Swedish junior scoring records, and Gunler who had a better PPG than both while also scoring at the SHL level. Underwhelming compared to Lundell who scored 19 Liiga points. Underwhelming in comparison to Jan Mysak too. His numbers are not bad but ceirtainly underwhelming in comparison to prospects he is compared too.

Looking at skating, his speed is atrocious and his edgework decent but not insanely good like with Raymond or Nybeck for example. There are many prospects that had more remarkable years than Perfetti, which does not mean he is a bad player, but considering the insane amount of high level talent I don’t see Perfetti becoming a top 10 pick.

Comparing Euros in D-1 and North Americans in their D-1 is comparing apples to oranges especially for scoring.. Perfetti had a historic level of production for the CHL in comparison to other NA skaters over the last 10 years. So you are saying all NA players have or had underwhelming stats in D-1 year for the last decade. He had 13 more points in one less game than Byfield, the consensus #2.
He was also second at U17 scoring besting Holt, Raymond, Mysak etc., the only time they played in the same event.

Atrocious is a pretty big word, I would say average is a better description but you have your own opinion. His hockey IQ is perhaps the best in the entire draft class according to many people and that in my mind makes up for the lack of foot speed.

Everyone has their own opinions on prospects and we all argue different prospects and it is 12 months before the draft but saying "underwhelming" production makes no sense at all when you see the stats he put up this year and compare to all other in the CHL over the last 10 years.

 

[AB13]

Comparing Euros in D-1 and North Americans in their D-1 is comparing apples to oranges especially for scoring.. Perfetti had a historic level of production for the CHL in comparison to other NA skaters over the last 10 years. So you are saying all NA players have or had underwhelming stats in D-1 year for the last decade. He had 13 more points in one less game than Byfield, the consensus #2.
He was also second at U17 scoring besting Holt, Raymond, Mysak etc., the only time they played in the same event.

Atrocious is a pretty big word, I would say average is a better description but you have your own opinion. His hockey IQ is perhaps the best in the entire draft class according to many people and that in my mind makes up for the lack of foot speed.

Everyone has their own opinions on prospects and we all argue different prospects and it is 12 months before the draft but saying "underwhelming" production makes no sense at all when you see the stats he put up this year and compare to all other in the CHL over the last 10 years.

His production was nowhere near as historic as the production of some of the euros I mentioned, even though it is very hard to compare as you said. My biggest issue is his skating, in my eyes is so bad that it is a huge concern. While his IQ is good I don't see it as close to the best in the draft, Lafreniere, Raymond, Lundell, Helge Grans, Justin Barron and Byfield all have better IQ in my opinion. It is obviously very hard to compare production as you said but I don't see the standout ability in Perfetti that I see in some others, I just don't. He is a very good player but he doesn't have close to the skill of someone like Holtz, Mysak or Gunler in my eyes, it is more about what I see in ability than production, but next season will tell us a lot more for obvious reasons.

 

[NA Hockey]

His production was nowhere near as historic as the production of some of the euros I mentioned, even though it is very hard to compare as you said. My biggest issue is his skating, in my eyes is so bad that it is a huge concern. While his IQ is good I don't see it as close to the best in the draft, Lafreniere, Raymond, Lundell, Helge Grans, Justin Barron and Byfield all have better IQ in my opinion. It is obviously very hard to compare production as you said but I don't see the standout ability in Perfetti that I see in some others, I just don't. He is a very good player but he doesn't have close to the skill of someone like Holtz, Mysak or Gunler in my eyes, it is more about what I see in ability than production, but next season will tell us a lot more for obvious reasons.

You lost me when you said Byfield had better IQ. He is bigger, stronger and faster but have never once from anyone, heard he is smarter. Let's agree to disagree and we will see in 12 months I guess. No harm no foul when not agreeing on prospects I guess.