Speculation: Sens to be a player in the trade/free agency market this summer?

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
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Friedman mentions in his opening to this weeks 31 Thoughts that the Sens have about $44 million committed next season. But the cap floor is likely in the $62 million range.
That includes MacArthur and Gaborik (who are essentially Nathan Horton’s at this point). And they have to sign Colin White, Duclair, Ceci and Wolanin from their RFAs, and have some UFA’s but none really of note outside of Ander Nilsson.
They can actually go out and sign a half decent player or two to big AAV, low term contracts, or they could potentially take a bad contract for the right price. And they’ll pretty much need to do that just to reach the floor.

I know how much the Senators (and their fans) would love to aid Toronto, but the Maple Leafs removing the one year and $5.3 million of Nathan Horton’s remaining contract would help. The Golden Knights have $5.25 million left to pay David Clarkson. Ottawa has to make those opponents (or anyone else who tries) earn it. The other thing Ottawa can try is what the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers did in the summer of 2017. Way under the cap and needing a shooter, they signed J.J. Redick to a one-year, $23-million contract. (He extended for another season and $12.25 million last summer.) Before your eyes fall out of your heads, I’m not suggesting the Senators pay anyone that much. But a young team is going to need a good veteran or two. And a one-year contract at a bigger number is a simple way to hit the floor. Term doesn’t kill you, and you’ve got to spend the money anyway. I don’t think it is going to be too difficult.

31 Thoughts: How Golden Knights won the Mark Stone sweepstakes - Sportsnet.ca
 

Stylizer1

SENSimillanaire
Jun 12, 2009
19,276
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Ottabot City
Friedman mentions in his opening to this weeks 31 Thoughts that the Sens have about $44 million committed next season. But the cap floor is likely in the $62 million range.
That includes MacArthur and Gaborik (who are essentially Nathan Horton’s at this point). And they have to sign Colin White, Duclair, Ceci and Wolanin from their RFAs, and have some UFA’s but none really of note outside of Ander Nilsson.
They can actually go out and sign a half decent player or two to big AAV, low term contracts, or they could potentially take a bad contract for the right price. And they’ll pretty much need to do that just to reach the floor.



31 Thoughts: How Golden Knights won the Mark Stone sweepstakes - Sportsnet.ca
When we were a good team no UFA's wanted to come here. Good thing we have cap space though.
 

Countdown0

Deep Breath... nope, still mad!
Jun 28, 2010
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Yeah, we've got that huge cap space to entice all the free agents looking to be the best player on the team, despite only being an average goal scorer. Or maybe a back-up goalie who wants to get start minutes.
 

dumbdick

Galactic Defender
May 31, 2008
11,294
3,700
Sens brass was talking about this explicitly a few weeks back. Basically said we'll be targetting free agents to reach the floor.
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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Reaching the floor won't be an issue if the Senators retain their current UFAs and RFAs.

-Ceci at 4.35M+ x 1 year (Has a 4.35M qualifying offer, so he isn't getting less)

-White at 4.5M x 6-7 years (Look at the Tuch contract signed last summer as a comparable)

-Wolanin at 1.2M x 2 years (Hard to predict this one, might be a few 100k less, doesn't really make a big difference)

-Nilsson at 2.5M x 3 years (Needs to be 3 not 2 because of expansion draft considerations, probably would be backloaded)

-Duclair at 2M x 1-2 years (Arbitration eligible forward on pace for almost 20 goals with around 300 career GP, he'll get more than people are expecting and it'll be a sizable raise from his current 650k)

-Paajarvi at 1.3M (They'll overpay him and a few other UFAs in order to keep some consistency in the room. It's easy to overpay a player like Paajarvi because the difference between a good and bad contract for him is only a few 100k.)

-Oscar Lindberg 1.8M x 1-2 years (I think more of a throw in, Vegas had to move somebody. I could see the Senators moving to try and keep him and other UFAs in order to maintain some stability in the room for so many guys moving on in such a short period of time. He is in no position to ask for a raise, but at the same time he's a bit of a mercenary who doesn't have to stay in this tire fire so we have to pay him.)

That's 17.65M spent on an additional 7 players. That brings the Senators up to 61.65 for a roster of 20 players. Add in another 3 bodies at 800k and the Senators are beyond the floor.

This isn't me saying that we don't have to make considerations with the floor in mind, because we're going to have to have a buffer so that we are a few million above the floor. That way, we do not get caught in a situation where we can't sell Ceci, Pageau, Anderson, etc early in the season if the right offer comes along. (By the deadline, we've paid 3/4ths of their salary so it's less of an issue).

But, this situation is far from being one where the Senators have to go out and spend 10's of millions on players. At most, they probably need to sign 2-3 overpaid veterans on 1 year deals making 2-3 million each.

That, or they can take on 1-2 Zetterberg/Clarkson type insured LTIRetirement contracts.

So basically, absolutely nothing exciting will come of this.
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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Sens brass was talking about this explicitly a few weeks back. Basically said we'll be targetting free agents to reach the floor.

They also said that we should be excited about these deadline trades because there is an NHL cap floor and if we move out Stone/Duchene/Dzingel/etc at the deadline, we have to bring back players to hit the floor.

In terms of roster players, the only player we brought back with a salary higher than a replacement level player was Oscar Lindberg....

So I wouldn't get too excited.

Think of those guys who get traded almost every deadline and somehow end up on a new team on a 1 year deal the next season. Those are who we'll go after on slightly inflated 1 year deals then we'll have press conferences about how Lee Stempniak signing here is proof that star NHL veterans are excited about the prospect of playing with Josh Norris!
 
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4thlineduster

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Jan 6, 2012
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No big name free agent is coming here..

They will reach the floor by taking in LTIR contracts and slightly overpaying White, Ceci, Wolanin
And by overpaying Ceci it all but relegates him to about zero trade value unless we retain salary.
 
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danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
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And by overpaying Ceci it all but relegates him to about zero trade value unless we retain salary.

Ceci will probably be on a 1 year contract of at least 4.35M since that is his qualifying offer. This should not effect the trade market for him at next year's deadline.

It won't matter if he's overpaid because he'll be traded at the deadline. Cap hits matter at the deadline, but not nearly as much since teams only have to add about 1/4th of the cap hit, and it will be off the books the next season.
 

Golden_Jet

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Sep 21, 2005
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We need to sign the Thomas Vanek type, to a 1 year deal, then flip them for a second at the deadline
 
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Sweatred

Erase me
Jan 28, 2019
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Reaching the floor won't be an issue if the Senators retain their current UFAs and RFAs.

-Ceci at 4.35M+ x 1 year (Has a 4.35M qualifying offer, so he isn't getting less)

-White at 4.5M x 6-7 years (Look at the Tuch contract signed last summer as a comparable)

-Wolanin at 1.2M x 2 years (Hard to predict this one, might be a few 100k less, doesn't really make a big difference)

-Nilsson at 2.5M x 3 years (Needs to be 3 not 2 because of expansion draft considerations, probably would be backloaded)

-Duclair at 2M x 1-2 years (Arbitration eligible forward on pace for almost 20 goals with around 300 career GP, he'll get more than people are expecting and it'll be a sizable raise from his current 650k)

-Paajarvi at 1.3M (They'll overpay him and a few other UFAs in order to keep some consistency in the room. It's easy to overpay a player like Paajarvi because the difference between a good and bad contract for him is only a few 100k.)

-Oscar Lindberg 1.8M x 1-2 years (I think more of a throw in, Vegas had to move somebody. I could see the Senators moving to try and keep him and other UFAs in order to maintain some stability in the room for so many guys moving on in such a short period of time. He is in no position to ask for a raise, but at the same time he's a bit of a mercenary who doesn't have to stay in this tire fire so we have to pay him.)

That's 17.65M spent on an additional 7 players. That brings the Senators up to 61.65 for a roster of 20 players. Add in another 3 bodies at 800k and the Senators are beyond the floor.

This isn't me saying that we don't have to make considerations with the floor in mind, because we're going to have to have a buffer so that we are a few million above the floor. That way, we do not get caught in a situation where we can't sell Ceci, Pageau, Anderson, etc early in the season if the right offer comes along. (By the deadline, we've paid 3/4ths of their salary so it's less of an issue).

But, this situation is far from being one where the Senators have to go out and spend 10's of millions on players. At most, they probably need to sign 2-3 overpaid veterans on 1 year deals making 2-3 million each.

That, or they can take on 1-2 Zetterberg/Clarkson type insured LTIRetirement contracts.

So basically, absolutely nothing exciting will come of this.

Nice report - but I think we let Nillson, MP, and OL walk which is $5 million+ and bring on a reclamation 1-3C to support the position and trade for a 2nd at the deadline. I assume Batherson, Brown and possibly a few of Balcers, Chaplik, Bergman’s, VA, Paul start with the club with Formenton, Norris getting a few games for good behaviour.

It will be marketed as a big signing, willingness to spend. The player will get less than 10 goals and life will go on.
 
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DJB

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Jan 6, 2009
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I really don't see why everyone is talking about reaching the floor . We have enough FA of our own that signing them should reach it no problem .
 
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Larionov

Registered User
Feb 9, 2005
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methot too

Methot is going to struggle to get a one way deal from anyone this summer. Love what he did for us, but he'll be 34 this year, has slowed considerably, and has played a grand total of 45 games in the last two seasons. He's got the "injury prone" label now stamped right on his name plate. Happy to see him back in the building for a tribute night, but I don't want him signed to a contract here.
 
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Sun God Nika

Palestine <3.
Apr 22, 2013
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Methot is going to struggle to get a one way deal from anyone this summer. Love what he did for us, but he'll be 34 this year, has slowed considerably, and has played a grand total of 45 games in the last two seasons. He's got the "injury prone" label now stamped right on his name plate. Happy to see him back in the building for a tribute night, but I don't want him signed to a contract here.

Giving him a 1yr 5M won't be bad for helping to mentor the young blue line. Remember its a tank year.

Doesn't make sense tho since Boro is our leader on D.
 
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Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
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You have to wonder how many NHL vets would be willing to take a one or two year deal in Ottawa. It's not like any of the quality veterans need to boost their bank balance by one more year of NHL money.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
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You have to wonder how many NHL vets would be willing to take a one or two year deal in Ottawa. It's not like any of the quality veterans need to boost their bank balance by one more year of NHL money.
They should be able to bring guys out of retirement that couldn't get NHL work for a couple of years
 

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