Value of: Sens full sell mode?

[SI90]

There is word that even after dealing Hoffman the Sens may very well still trade Karlsson at the draft.

My question is, if they do indeed trade Karlsson shouldn’t they go into full rebuild mode and trade Duchene and other vets as well?

If they trade Karlsson the expected return would be young prospects/future picks. So they won’t be expected to compete next year for the playoffs or a cup. Wouldn’t it make more sense to try and trade those guys during this offseason?

Click to read more...

 

[StreetHawk]

Duchene if he doesn’t want to sign in Ottawa will get traded. So, kind of depends on him. If I were Matt I would want out.

A year from ufa and given the owner there why stay?

 

[Liferleafer]

Got any solid RHD you're looking to deal?

 

[67Blues]

You have to look at it as what is best for the team in terms of current assets. If you are truly going into a full 3-5 year rebuild, then it probably makes the most sense to trade off current valuable assets that either a) will be too old by the time the new core is ready to push for playoffs b) won't want to re-sign during a rebuild.

It sucks for Sen fans, but if you want the team to do a quick rebuild that typically means hitting rock bottom first and getting young prospects and picks. It comes down to trusting your management to do it right, but maybe there isn't enough faith left in Sens fans to warrant that trust.

 

[duffy9748]

I’d give up the 4th pick to Colorado and then unload Karlsson, Duchene, and Stone for futures. They have some pretty good pieces in the system and could quickly get a start on a full rebuild behind those returns and next years 1st.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

I was just talking about this earlier and I thought it was the right course of action. The preferred destination for Karlsson/Stone should be Colorado so they can get the pick back. It would really suck to start off a rebuild without next years first, essentially tanking for nothing.

Scorch the earth rebuilds can often go very wrong, but at this point I think if they can get the value for their trade chips and get their 1st back they should go for it.

On the other hand; if Stone, Karlsson, and/or Duchene are willing to sign long term deals then there’s the possibility of a quicker retool.

 

[Liferleafer]

I’d give up the 4th pick to Colorado and then unload Karlsson, Duchene, and Stone for futures. They have some pretty good pieces in the system and could quickly get a start on a full rebuild behind those returns and next years 1st.

Karlsson alone should stock the youth cupboard pretty well....

 

[Starat327]

They better give up the pick this year if they do.

 

[Seven0two]

I think it would probably be for the best to do a full rebuild as many here have suggested. However, I think the rest of the sell offs should probably be at the deadline instead of before the draft. If they decide to sell earlier they should absolutely give up the 4th pick this season and go all-in on the Hughes seeepstakes.

 

[Castle8130]

If I were the senators gm I would trade with the aves again:


Erik Karlsson

for:

sens 2019 1st round pick, Colorado's 2019 2nd round pick (if he agrees to an extension: + Connor Timmins, colorados 2019 1st round pick)

I would only do this trade if Karlsson doesnt want to agree to an extention for any other team. His trade value would then steeply decline. I do value him pretty highly with an extention.

 

[Ouroboros]

How can they rebuild? Ottawa simply don't have the people in place to do it. As it stands right now, they have no real President of Hockey Ops, no senior advisors, no assistant GM, the smallest scouting staff in the league, and no analytics department. Pierre Dorion is literally a one-man show.

They'll overpay Duchene and Stone to keep them, and just hang out at the cap floor for a few years 'just to see what happens'.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think it would probably be for the best to do a full rebuild as many here have suggested. However, I think the rest of the sell offs should probably be at the deadline instead of before the draft. If they decide to sell earlier they should absolutely give up the 4th pick this season and go all-in on the Hughes seeepstakes.

I think with stone as a rfa its best to move him and let the other team work out the contract.

Duchene, you get more for him now because he is 11 days away from being able to sign an extension. Acquiring teams then know they have him for 7-8 more years.

 

[Taytro]

You have to look at it as what is best for the team in terms of current assets. If you are truly going into a full 3-5 year rebuild, then it probably makes the most sense to trade off current valuable assets that either a) will be too old by the time the new core is ready to push for playoffs b) won't want to re-sign during a rebuild.

It sucks for Sen fans, but if you want the team to do a quick rebuild that typically means hitting rock bottom first and getting young prospects and picks. It comes down to trusting your management to do it right, but maybe there isn't enough faith left in Sens fans to warrant that trust.

I live in Ottawa and go to my fair share of games and I'll be the first to say that this city only has fairweather fans. Pairing that with a cheap owner and there's no way to win. If the team does poorly, fans don't go to games, fans don't go to games, owner doesn't invest in the team. Owner won't put money into better players unless fans are attending, and the fans won't attend if there is a garbage hockey team. That's why Ottawa will never do a real lenghtly rebuild. It would lose Melnyk too much money .

 

[LamorielloAndSon]

Maybe the isles could get duchene without giving up Barzal after all

 

[Langdon Alger]

Karlsson and Smith are likely gone,maybe Ryan too, but I think Stone and Duchene will stay. Ottawa will be bad next year, but I think they can get back to being good again in 2-3 years.

They have some good young pieces, will add another one with the 4th overall pick, and then get some good pieces back for Karlsson.

It’s a risky move when you don’t have your 2019 first, but I think this is what they will do. They just have to hope they can overachieve a bit next year, ie.not finish dead last. The 10th pick to Colorado isn’t awful.

 

[ManofSteel55]

There is word that even after dealing Hoffman the Sens may very well still trade Karlsson at the draft.

My question is, if they do indeed trade Karlsson shouldn’t they go into full rebuild mode and trade Duchene and other vets as well?

If they trade Karlsson the expected return would be young prospects/future picks. So they won’t be expected to compete next year for the playoffs or a cup. Wouldn’t it make more sense to try and trade those guys during this offseason?

You can go into a rebuild without trading anything and everything with some value. Duchene is a good piece for them to build around for the future, so unless he won't sign an extension, they should keep him. If he won't, then they probably should sell him too, but as an Oiler fan I would caution them against moving absolutely every decent player on the roster. It's much harder to rebuild with a team of only kids and no decent NHL veterans. I'd aim to keep Duchene, Stone, Ryan (because why pay to move him) and Pageau to build around moving forward, look for a decent veteran for the blueline to help guide Chabot and Claesson as they develop, and hope that their prospects and picks come along quickly.

 

[SI90]

You can go into a rebuild without trading anything and everything with some value. Duchene is a good piece for them to build around for the future, so unless he won't sign an extension, they should keep him. If he won't, then they probably should sell him too, but as an Oiler fan I would caution them against moving absolutely every decent player on the roster. It's much harder to rebuild with a team of only kids and no decent NHL veterans.

I agree but I used Duchene as an example becuse he’s an up coming UFA. If Duchene would agree to an extension sure but the trend seems to be that these guys are more inclined to head into the offseason as a UFA.

Sens can’t take that chance with Duchene imo. Especially considering what they gave up to get him.

My islanders had a similar situation with Vanek and although it didn’t turn out bad for the isles, they didn’t get s decent return on Vanek considering what they gave up to get him.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I agree but I used Duchene as an example becuse he’s an up coming UFA. If Duchene would agree to an extension sure but the trend seems to be that these guys are more inclined to head into the offseason as a UFA.

Sens can’t take that chance with Duchene imo. Especially considering what they gave up to get him.

True, we don't know what he wants though. I'm sure that given their situation, they are really hoping to keep him. Even if he won't re-sign, I'd keep him and flip him at the trade deadline.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

If I were the senators gm I would trade with the aves again:


Erik Karlsson

for:

sens 2019 1st round pick, Colorado's 2019 2nd round pick (if he agrees to an extension: + Connor Timmins, colorados 2019 1st round pick)

I would only do this trade if Karlsson doesnt want to agree to an extention for any other team. His trade value would then steeply decline. I do value him pretty highly with an extention.

If I were the Avs GM, no thanks. The Avs are not in the position to be trading away high value futures yet, and definitely not to upgrade one of the few positions where we actually have some decent organizational depth. I'd much rather keep the picks and prospects and keep building the team according to the long term plan.

 

[StreetHawk]

Karlsson and Smith are likely gone,maybe Ryan too, but I think Stone and Duchene will stay. Ottawa will be bad next year, but I think they can get back to being good again in 2-3 years.

They have some good young pieces, will add another one with the 4th overall pick, and then get some good pieces back for Karlsson.

It’s a risky move when you don’t have your 2019 first, but I think this is what they will do. They just have to hope they can overachieve a bit next year, ie.not finish dead last. The 10th pick to Colorado isn’t awful.

Al this is predicated on stone and duchene signing extensions with Ottawa rather than stone going to arbitration and getting a 1 year deal to join duchene in ufa in 2019.

That forces Ottawa’s hand. Nhlers like thei security. But to stay in Ottawa given their mess of a lousy owner?

 

[SI90]

True, we don't know what he wants though. I'm sure that given their situation, they are really hoping to keep him. Even if he won't re-sign, I'd keep him and flip him at the trade deadline.

The problem I have with the deadline is if he gets hurt you won’t be able to move him and then potentially lose him for nothing. It’s a tough situation the Sens are in now.

 

[67Blues]

The problem I have with the deadline is if he gets hurt you won’t be able to move him and then potentially lose him for nothing. It’s a tough situation the Sens are in now.

Correct me if I'm wrong but if they are traded before the deadline, can't the new team extend a player to 8 years? That alone adds value to the asset being traded if they are a rental.

 

[Korpse]

I live in Ottawa and go to my fair share of games and I'll be the first to say that this city only has fairweather fans. Pairing that with a cheap owner and there's no way to win. If the team does poorly, fans don't go to games, fans don't go to games, owner doesn't invest in the team. Owner won't put money into better players unless fans are attending, and the fans won't attend if there is a garbage hockey team. That's why Ottawa will never do a real lenghtly rebuild. It would lose Melnyk too much money .

Yeah thats not whats happening. Melnyk started cutting costs well before attendance dropped below an average of 18K. 16/17 was the first year of Melnyk's ownership that attendance dropped below an average of 17K but it was the 10/11 season when Melnyk started to restrict spending.

 

[SI90]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if they are traded before the deadline, can't the new team extend a player to 8 years? That alone adds value to the asset being traded if they are a rental.

I think after the deadline too? As long as a team holds that players rights before July1st they can offer the 8th year.

 

[Goulet17]

If I were the senators gm I would trade with the aves again:


Erik Karlsson

for:

sens 2019 1st round pick, Colorado's 2019 2nd round pick (if he agrees to an extension: + Connor Timmins, colorados 2019 1st round pick)

I would only do this trade if Karlsson doesnt want to agree to an extention for any other team. His trade value would then steeply decline. I do value him pretty highly with an extention.

I am not sure that Colorado does this even if Karlsson agrees to an extension at the time of a potential trade. If he does not want to sign an extension, I think I can safely say that Colorado would have no interest.