Speculation: Sens attendance projections for 19-20

[Masked]

You think attendance will jump that much? I personally think the attendance problem has more to do with the terrible arena location than Melnyk.

That makes little sense when attendance has dropped dramatically under Melnyk, as he's spiraled downward to being one of the worst NHL owners of all time, while the location has been constant for 2 decades now. The location has never been an issue. It's just been a convenient excuse for whiners to whine about.

 

[Micklebot]

That makes little sense when attendance has dropped dramatically under Melnyk, as he's spiraled downward to being one of the worst NHL owners of all time, while the location has been constant for 2 decades now. The location has never been an issue. It's just been a convenient excuse for whiners to whine about.

I think the location as an issue has been at times overstated, but to suggest it isn't an issue at all is just sticking your head in the sand, location is one of many variables that undoubtedly impact attendance. Recent attendance drops are certainly not the result of the location, that's true, but there's some serious oversimplification going on if you're going to blame it entirely on Melnyk being a bad owner (though him being a bad owner likely to some degree drives some of the other variable, such as team performance)

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Paid attendance will be about 1700 people.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

That makes little sense when attendance has dropped dramatically under Melnyk, as he's spiraled downward to being one of the worst NHL owners of all time, while the location has been constant for 2 decades now. The location has never been an issue. It's just been a convenient excuse for whiners to whine about.

Professional sports franchises can become stale. I think that’s one of the problems with the Senators situation right now and why they are pushing for a new arena so badly. I no longer live in Ottawa and only come back for Christmas. I used to always make it out for a game when I was back visiting, but I no longer feel the urge to. It has nothing to do with Melnyk, it’s just become stale. I’d just prefer to watch the game in a pub then spend hours battling traffic to get there.

I don’t think it’s an excuse for whiners to wine about. It’s a business and it’s about providing value to its customers and right now the Senators are doing a bad job of it. I think it was very telling when the Sens didn’t sell out when they were deep in the playoffs.

Melnyk is a problem no doubt, but I don’t think new ownership will solve the attendance issues if they don’t make changes.

 

[Masked]

I think the location as an issue has been at times overstated, but to suggest it isn't an issue at all is just sticking your head in the sand, location is one of many variables that undoubtedly impact attendance. Recent attendance drops are certainly not the result of the location, that's true, but there's some serious oversimplification going on if you're going to blame it entirely on Melnyk being a bad owner (though him being a bad owner likely to some degree drives some of the other variable, such as team performance)

Team performance directly falls upon ownership in our case. If we were as good as we were during the pizza line days, the building would be packed regularly. But now that we've gone from mediocrity to crap, which lies entirely upon Melnyk, the building is empty.

Getting to the CTC is easier than it was when it first opened. The Queensway has expanded during that time. There are more buses going near there. There are more places nearby to park if you want to avoid the parking lots designed by idiots.

 

[Masked]

Professional sports franchises can become stale.

Only for bandwagon fans.

 

[BonkTastic]

Arena was pretty full - not nightly sellouts, but solid attendance numbers - before Phoenix issues started.

The possibility of getting "Phoenixed" definitely dented attendance numbers, but attendance hadn't bottomed out yet to their current laughable numbers. Governmwnt employees were a large part of the team's partial STH base. Lots of 6 and 12 game season ticket packs in that group. A lot of that was lost when the Phoenix troubles started, and all of a sudden those fans weren't making luxury/ entertainment purchases a year in advance because they couldn't risk it in case they were affected by pay issues. Public servants became very frugal and cautious with their money as a precaution. A pair of quarter-season tickets to hockey was the kind of expense that understandibly would be first on the chopping block.

The dagger on attendance was Melnyk's now-famous "Maybe it will look good somewhere else" speech. Attendance pretty much cratered after that - that's the influence that Melnyk has had on ticket sales. He gambled by trying to negotiate the NCC deal publicly, but didn't understand the history of Ottawa Sports Fans and why publicly saying something like that was essentially P.R. suicide in this city, and lost every bit of fan goodwill left in this city from the vast majority of potential customers.

Melnyk selling the team will definitely have a short term "celebratory" boost to what is probably a decent string of sellouts for most games, but it would be up to new ownership to do something to retain that renewed interest. Melnyk has damaged the brand so badly that I'm not so sure that him simply selling the team is enough to fix the problem.

There's a common thought in relationship psychology and couples therapy that almost any emotional feeling can be fixed in a relationship... Except resentment. Anger can fade. Frustration can be overcome. Sadness can be countered. But resentment, that's one of those long-term emotions that can stay with someone for a lifetime. There's no easy fix. RI'm a bit worried that some of the fanbase - where resentment has settled in - might have moved on for good. I would hope that that sort of long-term damage can be mitigated, but we won't know until a change happens.

 

[JD1]

Arena was pretty full - not nightly sellouts, but solid attendance numbers - before Phoenix issues started.

The possibility of getting "Phoenixed" definitely dented attendance numbers, but attendance hadn't bottomed out yet to their current laughable numbers. Governmwnt employees were a large part of the team's partial STH base. Lots of 6 and 12 game season ticket packs in that group. A lot of that was lost when the Phoenix troubles started, and all of a sudden those fans weren't making luxury/ entertainment purchases a year in advance because they couldn't risk it in case they were affected by pay issues. Public servants became very frugal and cautious with their money as a precaution. A pair of quarter-season tickets to hockey was the kind of expense that understandibly would be first on the chopping block.

The dagger on attendance was Melnyk's now-famous "Maybe it will look good somewhere else" speech. Attendance pretty much cratered after that - that's the influence that Melnyk has had on ticket sales. He gambled by trying to negotiate the NCC deal publicly, but didn't understand the history of Ottawa Sports Fans and why publicly saying something like that was essentially P.R. suicide in this city, and lost every bit of fan goodwill left in this city from the vast majority of potential customers.

Melnyk selling the team will definitely have a short term "celebratory" boost to what is probably a decent string of sellouts for most games, but it would be up to new ownership to do something to retain that renewed interest. Melnyk has damaged the brand so badly that I'm not so sure that him simply selling the team is enough to fix the problem.

There's a common thought in relationship psychology and couples therapy that almost any emotional feeling can be fixed in a relationship... Except resentment. Anger can fade. Frustration can be overcome. Sadness can be countered. But resentment, that's one of those long-term emotions that can stay with someone for a lifetime. There's no easy fix. RI'm a bit worried that some of the fanbase - where resentment has settled in - might have moved on for good. I would hope that that sort of long-term damage can be mitigated, but we won't know until a change happens.

I never really bought the phoenix angle. it might have contributed in a small way but I personally would not place it up there as having driven attendance down in a significant way

 

[Micklebot]

I never really bought the phoenix angle. it might have contributed in a small way but I personally would not place it up there as having driven attendance down in a significant way

I don't disagree; Phoenix only has the potential of impacting a subset of those who would possibly attend, and then only a portion of those who could be affected actually are, and only a portion would allow the threat of pay issues to impact their decision process. That said, from completely anecdotal experience, I know several people who have allowed the Phoenix fiasco to affect their decision making to an irrational level and continue to do so to this day.

I think our attendance issues are far too often attributed to one big factor or another, when the reality is it's likely a combination of many factors. One factor, even the big ones, probably could be overcome, and certainly wouldn't send us to the current depths. But the combination of:
- a less than ideal location,
- a poor performing team,
- a small corporate base,
- the phoenix fiasco,
- the increase in alternate sporting dollar options with the Redblacks and the Fury,
- lost trust in ownership,
- the improvement of the home experience with cheap giant quad HD TV screens,
- ect
It's all just too much to overcome, and likely some of them have compounding effects. Poor performance is easier to overcome when you're the only show in town. HD tvs aren't drawing fans away when there's a buzz in the air and fans are excited about the product. People look the other way when Melnyk does something awful if the team is winning.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

I think it also has to do with the city.

The people, the type of people who are living there. The type of people that are moving to Ottawa.

And no... I don’t mean this in a racial aspect.

Profession, and where they came from if the moved to the city in the last 30 years.

I think it is more complex than Melnyk and team success.

If we had Conor McD we would not sell out.

We need huge buy in from the city/govt and it needs FYOUS marketing

 

[Larionov]

I am constantly blown away by the number of people I meet who live here but tell me, "I'm not from Ottawa." Ask them how long they've been here, and it's often 10, 15, 20 years, and the truth is that they have no real plans to "go home" anytime soon. For whatever reason, though, they don't feel fully connected to this city. They sit there and without a hint of irony badmouth Ottawa hockey fans. Ask them if they like hockey and the answer is yes. Then why don't you go to the games? "Oh, I'm not from Ottawa." It must be weird to live in a city for years on end like you are on a non-stop business trip, but that seems to be mindset many have. As a result, generating that hometown pride is a bit harder here than perhaps in other places. It's possible, but it's tougher.

Related, the fans will show up if/when this team starts winning again, but it will be a delayed reaction. We'll have to be winning for a good season or so before the bandwagon will start filling up. It will fill eventually but it might take longer than it did in, say, Carolina when the bandwagon fans came rushing into the building this year when the team started not to suck for the first time in over a decade...

 

[JD1]

I am constantly blown away by the number of people I meet who live here but tell me, "I'm not from Ottawa." Ask them how long they've been here, and it's often 10, 15, 20 years, and the truth is that they have no real plans to "go home" anytime soon. For whatever reason, though, they don't feel fully connected to this city. They sit there and without a hint of irony badmouth Ottawa hockey fans. Ask them if they like hockey and the answer is yes. Then why don't you go to the games? "Oh, I'm not from Ottawa." It must be weird to live in a city for years on end like you are on a non-stop business trip, but that seems to be mindset many have. As a result, generating that hometown pride is a bit harder here than perhaps in other places. It's possible, but it's tougher.

Related, the fans will show up if/when this team starts winning again, but it will be a delayed reaction. We'll have to be winning for a good season or so before the bandwagon will start filling up. It will fill eventually but it might take longer than it did in, say, Carolina when the bandwagon fans came rushing into the building this year when the team started not to suck for the first time in over a decade...

so that has been a problem for years .... the not from here problem .... and TV and Internet have made it easy to continue to be a fan of wherever you are from.... the "conversion" rate on those fans is relatively low....not unlike having to convert the market in the first place

I expect to see attendance ramp back up in lockstep with results

Melnyk will have some permanent impact unless he sells, but on ice results and optimism will drive attendance in a larger way imo

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

so that has been a problem for years .... the not from here problem .... and TV and Internet have made it easy to continue to be a fan of wherever you are from.... the "conversion" rate on those fans is relatively low....not unlike having to convert the market in the first place

I expect to see attendance ramp back up in lockstep with results

Melnyk will have some permanent impact unless he sells, but on ice results and optimism will drive attendance in a larger way imo

It's about marketing or lack there of.

The marketing group of this team should be taking light jabs at their rivals though I believe it is not allowed.

I have said this before, when the team was in the playoffs for so many years out of the last 15 years, it is a successful team. I know some others can say it was not the team they wanted... but the way I see it, it should have swayed a lot of the younger generations (kids of the habs and leafs parents) to be hardcore fans. In my opinion, it has not.

In the end, I think the cheap marketing needs to be moved up a notch and everyone who is a real fan of this team should speak highly of the future.
Every time I am travelling and I bump into someone at an airport or in a Tim's lineup I stop and say 'nice hat' or 'nice jersey' and start a conversation if I can. There are a few kids in my son's school here (in Toronto) that are fans. I always make sure to tell them that the future looks bright and that how awesome it was when we beat the leafs that game... etc.

The whole recent owner/trades/etc debacle has been hard, but what hurt the most is all the anti-sens (organization/owner/players) sentiment online. This is what will go down in the books as a big hole left to fill.

I do not like to dwell on the ownership issues. He has been a bad owner. For sure. I do have a hard time dealing with the extreme negativity. It is really going to hurt down the line. New hockey fans will have an easier time jumping on the bandwagons of the other teams in the area that are doing better. The effect of this will be seen soon.

Some may say 'yeah, but eff melnyk!, he deserves it!' -- but what it is doing is killing a lot more downstream.

A new owner is not going to change much when the ship has sailed.

Back to marketing for the future... most important thing that will make this team a real success is good marketing... not 'SENATORS RISING' ads, but a real creative campaign that brings pride back to the masses.

 

[bert]

The entire city, eh? LOL

Pretty sure attendance will be same as last year unless they sign a few new/old people.

It will be worse, they are going to be a worse team. More people will come to the realization there is no commitment from ownership and attendance will decline. Unlike last year they have over promissed and have an even worse team interestingly enough. Another well thought out excecuted plan by management.

 

[stempniaksen]

I don't disagree; Phoenix only has the potential of impacting a subset of those who would possibly attend, and then only a portion of those who could be affected actually are, and only a portion would allow the threat of pay issues to impact their decision process. That said, from completely anecdotal experience, I know several people who have allowed the Phoenix fiasco to affect their decision making to an irrational level and continue to do so to this day.

I think our attendance issues are far too often attributed to one big factor or another, when the reality is it's likely a combination of many factors. One factor, even the big ones, probably could be overcome, and certainly wouldn't send us to the current depths. But the combination of:
- a less than ideal location,
- a poor performing team,
- a small corporate base,
- the phoenix fiasco,
- the increase in alternate sporting dollar options with the Redblacks and the Fury,
- lost trust in ownership,
- the improvement of the home experience with cheap giant quad HD TV screens,
- ect
It's all just too much to overcome, and likely some of them have compounding effects. Poor performance is easier to overcome when you're the only show in town. HD tvs aren't drawing fans away when there's a buzz in the air and fans are excited about the product. People look the other way when Melnyk does something awful if the team is winning.

Death by a thousand cuts.

I think Melnyk's PR mess at the outdoor game can be pointed to as the "one big factor" but there's no denying this was a flawed market long before Melnyk's arrival, and there have been some things happen under EM's tenure that haven't been his fault (Phoenix, floods during cup run, ect) while there are some pretty big black marks where blame falls at his feet (slashing player salaries, slashing FO/support staff salaries, chasing out star players, Lebreton fiasco, ect).

A new owner isn't going to come in and fix every problem with this market. But I don't think it's crazy to say that the grass is absolutely greener no matter who comes in at this point.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

It will be worse, they are going to be a worse team. More people will come to the realization there is no commitment from ownership and attendance will decline. Unlike last year they have over promissed and have an even worse team interestingly enough. Another well thought out excecuted plan by management.

I hope they are a worse team for the draft pick... but I am quite certain we will be a little better.

 

[thinkwild]

I remember Brydens last days, attendance wasnt great, and he had generated some backlash due to his constant need to nudge Sens fans into paying big city ticket prices. Then Melnyk bought the team, splashing money around, announcing he was a billionaire that would spend to the cap, even overspending by Cap manipulations. And that generated quite a buzz. It was a great marketing. It wrote a new narrative for the franchise to get behind. Their was renewed confidence amongst the fanbase. That of course went hand in hand with an exciting team. One that was being talked about outside of Ottawa.

Ottawa is growing quite a bit. In a few years, with a well connected rapid transit in a bigger city, with an exciting new team in a significantly taxpayer funded arena, and an owner that can institute a non-embarrassing culture from the top, i'd think there is solid potential for a medium term investment to pay off here. After a few more years languishing through unparalleled debt repayment and asset accumulation of course.

 

[Micklebot]

I hope they are a worse team for the draft pick... but I am quite certain we will be a little better.

Roster definitely worse on paper (so far). DJ Smith has his work cut out to make this team even a little better.

 

[topshelf15]

The new owner shouldnt be expected to come in and spend to the cap,and sign every F/A out there....What we need is a well funded support staff to build up a championship team,and a marketing staff to make money from it...The fans are fickle in this market for good reason,it has seen enough wannabe owners that bring nothing but empty promises

 

[harrisb]

The new owner shouldnt be expected to come in and spend to the cap,and sign every F/A out there....What we need is a well funded support staff to build up a championship team,and a marketing staff to make money from it...The fans are fickle in this market for good reason,it has seen enough wannabe owners that bring nothing but empty promises

Nailed it, stay the course but bring in a proper staff, demote Dorion to head scout and fill the massive number of holes. Invest heavily in marketing the future but also to the young children coming us so you have fans for years to come.

 

[Spartachat]

The new owner shouldnt be expected to come in and spend to the cap,and sign every F/A out there....What we need is a well funded support staff to build up a championship team,and a marketing staff to make money from it...The fans are fickle in this market for good reason,it has seen enough wannabe owners that bring nothing but empty promises

The first thing a new owner should do is fire the CEO/President. He has done nothing for this organization.

 

[aragorn]

Nailed it, stay the course but bring in a proper staff, demote Dorion to head scout and fill the massive number of holes. Invest heavily in marketing the future but also to the young children coming us so you have fans for years to come.

It's rare & I can't say I can remember that ever happening before in the NHL, usually they fire the GM & don't demote him. Since EM signed him to a 3 yr deal & the rebuild just started I doubt he is canned anytime soon.

The Sens have been marketing to the children around Ottawa for yrs now, the players including alumni that live in this area go to the schools during the yr to talk to the kids. Every summer they have the Canadian Tire Sens day where they go to a different Canadian Tire almost every week with a couple of players & Spartacat to promote the Sens starting around development camp.

 

[bert]

I hope they are a worse team for the draft pick... but I am quite certain we will be a little better.

I am curious as to how you think that will be possible? They removed a top 20 player in the league and a top 30 center with nothing close to a similar level replacement player for both. Oh yeah and a 50 point 25 goal scorer on top of that. I am sure the new coach will help but at the end of the day over 82 games the simple lack of talent will lead to a horrid season.

 

[Alfie11]

I am constantly blown away by the number of people I meet who live here but tell me, "I'm not from Ottawa." Ask them how long they've been here, and it's often 10, 15, 20 years, and the truth is that they have no real plans to "go home" anytime soon. For whatever reason, though, they don't feel fully connected to this city. They sit there and without a hint of irony badmouth Ottawa hockey fans. Ask them if they like hockey and the answer is yes. Then why don't you go to the games? "Oh, I'm not from Ottawa." It must be weird to live in a city for years on end like you are on a non-stop business trip, but that seems to be mindset many have. As a result, generating that hometown pride is a bit harder here than perhaps in other places. It's possible, but it's tougher.

It may be a function of age...a child might come to view a new city as home but maybe less so for an adult. Ottawa is home but I've been in Toronto 10+ years and it's doubtful I will ever return to Ottawa. Toronto will never be home because I spent the first 20 years of my life there. It's where I'm from, it's home. Toronto is wear I work and live. It's a function of economics.

I know a few other Ottawa guys here and it's the same thing. You move to a new city for economic opportunities but there's no connection otherwise....and Toronto is a much cooler place to "be from".

That being said I do go to games here. It's about enjoying a sport, not necessarily cheering for a team.

 

[Micklebot]

I am curious as to how you think that will be possible? They removed a top 20 player in the league and a top 30 center with nothing close to a similar level replacement player for both. Oh yeah and a 50 point 25 goal scorer on top of that. I am sure the new coach will help but at the end of the day over 82 games the simple lack of talent will lead to a horrid season.

Its not like you can be worse than last.
I think there have been other teams with similar or worse rosters that have finished higher than last. Parity in the league makes it easy to do a bit better even when your roster gets worse, particularly if your goaltending improves.