Silver Seven Senators Remain at Odds with Outside Scouting Consensus

[Korpse]

Another one of the geniuses down on every Sens pick not named Stutzle last year

Just for reference.

https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1310960889542201345

 

[Hale The Villain]

Just for reference.

This guy is embarrassing himself with these rankings.

Clearly someone who scouts exclusively via numbers and graphs.

 

[Golden_Jet]

This guy is embarrassing himself with these rankings.

Clearly someone who scouts exclusively via numbers and graphs.

he is, but it’s nearly a year old, before the Lafreniere draft.

 

[Korpse]

This guy is embarrassing himself with these rankings.

Clearly someone who scouts exclusively via numbers and graphs.

5 players not taken in top 100 of the 2020 draft were featured in his top 32. Strange for him to suggest a team is making a reach.

 

[Korpse]

he is, but it’s nearly a year old, before the Lafreniere draft.

the tweet was a week before the 2020 draft. Draft was held Oct 6-7.

 

[Ouroboros]

This guy is embarrassing himself with these rankings.

Clearly someone who scouts exclusively via numbers and graphs.

It's not scouting, and I think he's fairly forthcoming about that.

It's purely a points/NHLe based model. That's why it's always so bullish on 5'8" point compilers who will almost certainly not transition well to high-level North American hockey. A handful will, of course, but the majority will not.

I have a strong suspicion that the blogger boy credo of 'impact is impact no matter how you get it' will not pan out. Sounds good in theory, probably going to fall apart in practice.

I can remember after the 2020 draft he posted the data on Marco Rossi. One of his closest statistical comparables was Eric Lindros. How can that not be junk data? Projecting a 5'8", 180lb guy to have success because he profiles somewhat similarly to a 6'5", 235lb physical specimen. Seems dubious.

I'll bet this model would have gone absolutely bonkers for guys like Corey Locke, Martin St. Pierre, Darren Haydar, Jason Krog, etc.

I'll also bet that it undervalues the sort of player the Senators have been targeting in the draft. Big, rangy, strong, speedy players who may not yet have the counting stats to justify a high draft selection but who can possibly project as a quality pro.

I don't think the Sens have cracked the drafting code or anything, just that they don't place much of a premium on junior-aged scorers.

This pattern is going to keep repeating. The pocket protector crew are never going to like a Sens draft under this regime.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This guy is embarrassing himself with these rankings.

Clearly someone who scouts exclusively via numbers and graphs.

He should try watching just a little . Plug age, points, league, dy, cy, position into a model and some ranking pops out.

Check out how he ranks our goaltending

and then there is this

 

[Tuna99]

Sens might be lacking some skill in the rebuild, but a top PP unit of Stutzkle, Tkachuk, Chabot, Batherson, Norris is pretty good.

if their guilty of anything in the rebuild it’s avoiding skill over size and power. I like what they are building but it’s need some more high end skill I think. Sokolov, Boucher, Formenton etc will all be good secondary scoring, but another game breaker to help Jimmy would be good

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Byron Bader is an idiot.

I'm actually getting irritated by the increasing number of these "stat guys" that are throwing around numbers and irrelevant charts and thinking it's the end all be all to understanding talent and what constitutes talent & efficiency. I get it's an exciting and novel dimension to assessing players; but some of these guys are throwing it down like it's the holy grail and making absurd inferences and rigid conclusions. Most of the guys just trying to find the next big break/"tool" for themselves and setting aside objectivity. Horrendous.

You'd think as one of the best drafting and developing teams in years we would have some respect and authority on the matter but they just continue making a fool of themselves.

 

[Golden_Jet]

the tweet was a week before the 2020 draft. Draft was held Oct 6-7.

I know, that why I said that.

 

[BondraTime]

I know, that why I said that.

It was his ranking of the 2020 draft, that’s what’s being ridiculed

5’7 forward taken 199th ranked 13th overall, and he’s saying teams made terrible reaches. Incredibly hypocritical. I understand he mentions he doesn’t see things happening, but they are still his draft rankings.

According to him Sens reached on Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Kleven, Sokolov, Leevi, and Daoust, but if a team took Pashin (199th) or Nybeck (115th) around 10th it wouldn’t have been a reach.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It was his ranking of the 2020 draft, that’s what’s being ridiculed

I know, I got it the first time I read it, Lafreniere draft,.

 

[BondraTime]

I know, I got it the first time I read it, Lafreniere draft,.

Then completely unsure what your post had to do with anything, it was posted with the intention of showing his year old rankings

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Guys like him will disappear if you stop giving them publicity/hits.

They use this kind of controversy as bait to grow their audience. Just don't play that game.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He should try watching just a little . Plug age, points, league, dy, cy, position into a model and some ranking pops out.

Check out how he ranks our goaltending

and then there is this

I haven’t read his mentions, but this guy continuously embarrasses himself.

 

[Big Muddy]

Interesting thread about Senators (and teams in general) drafting record, and the different approaches to it. Thanks to those that have provided info.

It will be interesting to see how our young players (with just a taste on NHL action) will progress this year like Pinto, Formenton and JBD (to a lesser degree perhaps), and of course Stutzle. Hopefully they have good years, show clear and definitive progress. That will help us all feel good about our team's direction & drafting.

 

[R2010]

I haven’t read his mentions, but this guy continuously embarrasses himself.

I think part of the challenge he runs into is his model is built only on points. There's no attempt at all to consider other aspects of the game. Bacon's model is a similar model to bader's but uses one of them catch all GAR stats which seems to work better. They're still models that have big blindspots for things that the scouting world sees. Bader's to me is useless. Bacon's is somewhat useful as a 'context' tool but never for actually ranking. It is useful to me to see that a player who profiles statistically in lower leagues usually has X % of making the NHL. It's not a tool for exactly judging a player though. Just a formal way of normalizing production across leagues. If only they actually treated it that way and spoke about it that way...

 

[aragorn]

I think part of the challenge he runs into is his model is built only on points. There's no attempt at all to consider other aspects of the game. Bacon's model is a similar model to bader's but uses one of them catch all GAR stats which seems to work better. They're still models that have big blindspots for things that the scouting world sees. Bader's to me is useless. Bacon's is somewhat useful as a 'context' tool but never for actually ranking. It is useful to me to see that a player who profiles statistically in lower leagues usually has X % of making the NHL. It's not a tool for exactly judging a player though. Just a formal way of normalizing production across leagues. If only they actually treated it that way and spoke about it that way...

Kind of reminds me of some on here when that it'is s all they mention how many pts a certain player had in the past with a certain team disqualifying completely the team & linemates or potentially how many pts they could get at some future unknown time. While pts are important there is so much more to hockey than just the pts that lead to goals & assists, but you also have to prevent goals against. You need to have a balance & you need to have some physical dominance so your skill players can feel safe enough to play their game without getting killed. Having as many big skilled players as you can who can handle themselves is the key IMO & it seems to be the model that Ottawa is building.

 

[R2010]

Kind of reminds me of some on here when that it'is s all they mention how many pts a certain player had in the past with a certain team disqualifying completely the team & linemates or potentially how many pts they could get at some future unknown time. While pts are important there is so much more to hockey than just the pts that lead to goals & assists, but you also have to prevent goals against. You need to have a balance & you need to have some physical dominance so your skill players can feel safe enough to play their game without getting killed. Having as many big skilled players as you can who can handle themselves is the key IMO & it seems to be the model that Ottawa is building.

Yeah it is a really difficult thing to measure defensive impact so you see a lot of the modelling crowd kinda ignore it. In terms of the sens - I like the way they are building overall but a few big mistakes over the years drafting had long impacts. Gotta hit on our 1st rounders. I don't subscribe to the you have to draft the highest skill available theory but Lazar, Thomson, Gagne, Bowers, England, Brown were all top 40 picks that in the last 8 years haven't worked out. So 6/16 top 40 picks have been misses. We have been lucky that we usually hit later in the draft. Brown was a good pick at the time - can't control that sometimes players don't work out. But In every case there were very good NHL prospects or very good NHLers picked directly after. Can't miss that often on top end picks. Great to build identity buy can't miss on those high end assets.

Bit worried with Boucher that we did the same thing this year. Hopefully he has a big year and shows a bit more touch around the net.

 

[JD1]

Yeah it is a really difficult thing to measure defensive impact so you see a lot of the modelling crowd kinda ignore it. In terms of the sens - I like the way they are building overall but a few big mistakes over the years drafting had long impacts. Gotta hit on our 1st rounders. I don't subscribe to the you have to draft the highest skill available theory but Lazar, Thomson, Gagne, Bowers, England, Brown were all top 40 picks that in the last 8 years haven't worked out. So 6/16 top 40 picks have been misses. We have been lucky that we usually hit later in the draft. Brown was a good pick at the time - can't control that sometimes players don't work out. But In every case there were very good NHL prospects or very good NHLers picked directly after. Can't miss that often on top end picks. Great to build identity buy can't miss on those high end assets.

Bit worried with Boucher that we did the same thing this year. Hopefully he has a big year and shows a bit more touch around the net.

Why do so many throw Thomson out as a draft miss?

 

[R2010]

Why do so many throw Thomson out as a draft miss?

He is giving our development staff a lot of work to turn him into a player imo. Poor hockey sense. High end prospects drafted right after. If he becomes a bottom pairing dman we should be happy. Problem is top four D and top six F likely right after.

Reminds me of Ceci. Lots of tools.

 

[Beech]

SCF in 2007 and an overall finish of 8th in the league.
Never finished in the top 10 since. 14 years
highest finish 12th on 2 occasions. Lowest 31st once, 30th twice.
average finish 20th
number of years in the playoffs : 6 of 14
number of playoff series wins: 4

Can you please explain the good drafting again? I may have missed something. It seems that 1) this team has drafted fairly high, fairly regularly 2) near negligible success.

Buffalo is about the only team that is below us. Florida is close..otherwise, much of the league is better than the Sens.

Even the Blue team matches the Sens in terms of playoff appearances. No wins (Thank God). But their average finish is ~ 15th. The highest is around 10th, the lowest is around 22 for average finish. At 20th, the Sens are comfortably near the absolute bottom.

If this is good drafting, Holly Cow what will happen when we hit a bad patch!!!! Can you finish 33 in a 32 team league?

 

[Bevans]

View attachment 459385
SCF in 2007 and an overall finish of 8th in the league.
Never finished in the top 10 since. 14 years
highest finish 12th on 2 occasions. Lowest 31st once, 30th twice.
average finish 20th
number of years in the playoffs : 6 of 14
number of playoff series wins: 4

Can you please explain the good drafting again? I may have missed something. It seems that 1) this team has drafted fairly high, fairly regularly 2) near negligible success.

Buffalo is about the only team that is below us. Florida is close..otherwise, much of the league is better than the Sens.

Even the Blue team matches the Sens in terms of playoff appearances. No wins (Thank God). But their average finish is ~ 15th. The highest is around 10th, the lowest is around 22 for average finish. At 20th, the Sens are comfortably near the absolute bottom.

If this is good drafting, Holly Cow what will happen when we hit a bad patch!!!! Can you finish 33 in a 32 team league?

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

Almost all of Ottawa's success is due to drafting. To insinuate they're bad at drafting because they have been losing during their rebuild is specious at best.

I'm sure you realize that though.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

If this is good drafting, Holly Cow what will happen when we hit a bad patch!!!! Can you finish 33 in a 32 team league?

If you can't clearly see the issue has been retaining our talent, mixed with bad pro scouting I dunno what to tell you.

The fact that we are good drafting and developing team is the very reason we are able to have such a promising future so quickly after trading elite players that we developed.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

He is giving our development staff a lot of work to turn him into a player imo. Poor hockey sense. High end prospects drafted right after. If he becomes a bottom pairing dman we should be happy. Problem is top four D and top six F likely right after.

Reminds me of Ceci. Lots of tools.

If he ends up being Cody Ceci that’s a good pick.