Proposal: Senators Moves to Finish the Rebuild

[Ygg]

Here are some proposals to help push the Sens over the top.

I'm aware Melnyk is cheap and that they might want to continue to draft instead of trading for players, but this is what I think would be the best scenario for them.

1.
To CAR
NYI 2020 1st round pick (28th)
RFA C Chris Tierney
OTT 2020 4th round draft pick

To OTT
RHD Dougie Hamilton*

*Trade agreed upon if (and in this case, assume they do) Sens re-sign Hamilton to a 58M/8 years extension - 7.25M AAV)

2.
To OTT
Offer sheet CBJ C Pierre-Luc Dubois 8.45M/year, 5 years

To CBJ
OTT 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks

3.
To BUF
RFA LW Anthony Duclair
C Artem Anisimov

To OTT
Future considerations**

**Need to unload Anisimov's contract (relatively negative value since the bonus is paid and only one year is left) and Duclair's extension contract (positive value, can be a decent impact player who scores goals, would be interested to see on Eichel's wing) to make room for other players and keep the cap hit as low as possible

Roster

Tkachuk (0.93M) -Dubois (8.45M) - Raymond (3.25M)
Stutzle (3.5M) - LBrown (0.86M) - Batherson (0.73M)
Balcers (1.5M extension) - White (4.75M) - CBrown (4.33M AAV extension)
Chlapik (1M extension) - Paul (1M extension) - Ryan (7.25M)
Hawryluk (1M extension)

Chabot (8M) - Hamilton (7.25M)
Brannstrom (0.86M) - Zaitsev (4.5M)
Rielly (1.5M) - Zub (0.93M)
Wolanin (0.9M)

Nilsson (2.6M)
Hogberg (0.7M)

Cap hit: 65.79M (but alot of those contracts have had bonuses paid already and/or are entry level contracts with bonuses that might not be required to be paid)

This leaves the Sens with roughly 16M under the cap for this year. The year after might become more problematic but in the end, Sens have enough prospects and picks around to not get in cap hell and not lose a very key player to the Seattle expansion draft (i.e. Ryan contract freeing up 7.25M when comes the time to sign Stutzle and Raymond extensions).

I don't think this roster would make the playoffs in 2021, but would still end up being close, therefor the 1st round pick in the Dubois offer sheet ends up being in the 12th OA range, and I am fine with that. The years after, Sens will be in a position to contend every year with minor tweaks

Click to read more...

 

[GoldiFox]

Hamilton extended to a sub-market-value contract is worth a hell of a lot more than a very late 1st and a forward the Canes don't need. If Hamilton can be re-signed for $7.25 million the Canes are the ones doing it.

Hamilton at $7.25 million x 7 years would cost closer to #5 overall than #28 overall. Not that he is signing for that cheap.

Even as a pure rental at the trade deadline next year Hamilton would be worth a much bigger haul than that.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Columbus would definitely match and Hamilton is going to get over 8 million.

 

[Pavlikovsky]

I'm a Sens fan and none of these other than Anisimov trade are even close to plausible.

 

[cwede]

Dubois is not available, and CBJ likely won't let him walk as RFA, so that part won't happen

and if Ott intends to sign Hamilton to long term deal, price to Canes is likely gonna be higher

but this whole idea of finishing off the rebuild now is unrealistic,
bring all the young talent into the org,
and 2-3 years from now add the proven stars fill out a contender

i feel for the impatience of Sens fans, but this is just barstool beers chatter, it's too soon ...

 

[Ygg]

Dubois is not available, and CBJ likely won't let him walk as RFA, so that part won't happen

and if Ott intends to sign Hamilton to long term deal, price to Canes is likely gonna be higher

but this whole idea of finishing off the rebuild now is unrealistic,
bring all the young talent into the org,
and 2-3 years from now add the proven stars fill out a contender

i feel for the impatience of Sens fans, but this is just barstool beers chatter, it's too soon ...

In an ideal world, Sens are able to draft Byfield and thus, likely none of these scenarios happen because he's the C the Sens need. But I don't think it happens, LA won't pass over. Therefor, Sens pick 2 wingers and have to find a C elsewhere.

As for the Dubois OS, it probably is the least probable thing that can happen, but I am not certain where Sens could find another C that fits their needs and values. I am not positive Dubois is happy with Torts as the head coach, and might sign the OS. But then CBJ would likely match, I agree.

As for the Dougie trade, as the previous guys mention, I tried to find a comparable and the closest I could see was the McDonagh trade. It seems very comparable, and I would even add that Tampa also got JT Miller who is a pretty good player in that trade. If needed, Sens can add a 2020 2nd round pick or a decent prospect, which really is enough to get Dougie.

As far as the extension goes, I also see no issue giving Dougie 750k-1M more than what I offered. He definitely won't get more than 8.25M, looking at other defensemen like John Carlson at 8M, Josi at 9M, Hedman at 7.88M

 

[GoldiFox]

In an ideal world, Sens are able to draft Byfield and thus, likely none of these scenarios happen because he's the C the Sens need. But I don't think it happens, LA won't pass over. Therefor, Sens pick 2 wingers and have to find a C elsewhere.

As for the Dubois OS, it probably is the least probable thing that can happen, but I am not certain where Sens could find another C that fits their needs and values. I am not positive Dubois is happy with Torts as the head coach, and might sign the OS. But then CBJ would likely match, I agree.

As for the Dougie trade, as the previous guys mention, I tried to find a comparable and the closest I could see was the McDonagh trade. It seems very comparable, and I would even add that Tampa also got JT Miller who is a pretty good player in that trade. If needed, Sens can add a 2020 2nd round pick or a decent prospect, which really is enough to get Dougie.

As far as the extension goes, I also see no issue giving Dougie 750k-1M more than what I offered. He definitely won't get more than 8.25M, looking at other defensemen like John Carlson at 8M, Josi at 9M, Hedman at 7.88M

McDonagh had a 10 team NTC and did not sign an extension as a part of the deal, he went to free agency and was then re-signed by Tampa.

The McDonagh trade was a 1st + 2nd + a recent 1st round pick in Howden + a top prospect and recent 2nd round pick in Hajek. JT Miller and Namestnikov were seen as a wash at the time.

If you want a corollary to that deal I'd expect closer to #28 + 2021 2nd + Josh Norris (= Howden) + Alex Formenton or Drake Batherson (= Hajek) + Tierney for Hamilton + Ryan Dzingle. That would be without the extension in place.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

With all due respect...

1. Dougie costs more than that as a rental, let alone extended.
2. CBJ matches in a heartbeat.
3. No need to get rid of Anisimov, and not at the expense of Duke.

As much as I'd like to see Ottawa make a big move, we need to stand pat for this year. Let the expansion draft pass, and then go hunting for bag names. That and Tampa, Toronto and Boston way too good in the division. Boston is getting close to the end of their window and Tampa/Toronto will be greatly affected by the flat cap, so next year is the year Ottawa needs to make some big moves.

 

[Headshot77]

Don't rush your rebuild. Keep sucking and drafting high-end talent. Once your team can squeak into the playoffs on your young core alone that's when you add the finishing touches.

 

[Ygg]

McDonagh had a 10 team NTC and did not sign an extension as a part of the deal, he went to free agency and was then re-signed by Tampa.

The McDonagh trade was a 1st + 2nd + a recent 1st round pick in Howden + a top prospect and recent 2nd round pick in Hajek. JT Miller and Namestnikov were seen as a wash at the time.

If you want a corollary to that deal I'd expect closer to #28 + 2021 2nd + Josh Norris (= Howden) + Alex Formenton or Drake Batherson (= Hajek) + Tierney for Hamilton + Ryan Dzingle. That would be without the extension in place.

Well first, JT Miller definitely was not a wash at that time, and if he was then just say every single player that gets traded ever is a wash because of the fact they get traded.

And then the value Howden has would be the equivalent of what Tierney is (most agree he is worth a high 2nd and a 3rd). So saying 2 2nds + a 3rd is what Howden was worth back then is quite an overstatement. Also, Libor Hajek does not and never had the same value as Formenton or Batherson. Both are crazy good prospects - no offense to Libor who is a good one too - who burnt it in their junior leagues and then are still burning it at the AHL level. Anything closer would probably be Balcers, but even then he tore up the AHL too and is doing well in the NHL anyway.

Dougie Hamilton isn't worth the equivalent of a 1st, a 2nd, Tierney and 2 blue chip prospects as you say. There's only a handful of players who would be worth that. Even back when he was traded to Calgary, he was traded for a mid 1st and two 2nds, and everyone already knew then he was a beast and could be a cost controlled RFA for a while.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

To BUF
RFA LW Anthony Duclair
C Artem Anisimov

To OTT
Future considerations**

Moving 6M or so in salary is ambitious.

 

[GoldiFox]

Well first, JT Miller definitely was not a wash at that time, and if he was then just say every single player that gets traded ever is a wash because of the fact they get traded.

And then the value Howden has would be the equivalent of what Tierney is (most agree he is worth a high 2nd and a 3rd). So saying 2 2nds + a 3rd is what Howden was worth back then is quite an overstatement. Also, Libor Hajek does not and never had the same value as Formenton or Batherson. Both are crazy good prospects - no offense to Libor who is a good one too - who burnt it in their junior leagues and then are still burning it at the AHL level. Anything closer would probably be Balcers, but even then he tore up the AHL too and is doing well in the NHL anyway.

Dougie Hamilton isn't worth the equivalent of a 1st, a 2nd, Tierney and 2 blue chip prospects as you say. There's only a handful of players who would be worth that. Even back when he was traded to Calgary, he was traded for a mid 1st and two 2nds, and everyone already knew then he was a beast and could be a cost controlled RFA for a while.

I didn't say JT Miller was a wash. I said that JT Miller for Namestnikov was seen as a fairly even swap at the time. At the time of the trade Namestnikov had 44 points in 62 games and JT Miller had 40 points in 63 games.

Howden at the time of the trade and Tierney are not even remotely comparable. Howden was a 20 year old recent 1st round pick who had developed well. Howden was expansion exempt and had 7 years of team control left. Tierney is a 26 year old with 1 year of RFA left, arbitration eligible, and needs to be protected in the expansion draft. He's not worth much of anything to Carolina as they have plenty of middle-6 forwards.

NYR was very high on Hajek at the time of the trade. He was the key piece in the return IIRC. He hasn't panned out since but that doesn't change his value at the time. And Hajek was 20 years old which is more comparable to Formenton versus a 23 year old Balcers. But I don't mind that swap in any case.

And again, this was all for a rental McDonagh. No extension. So #28 + 2021 2nd + Norris + Balcers for a rental Hamilton.

 

[SRHRangers]

Miller was also in the doghouse in MSG.

The Miller part of that deal wasn't just a hockey move.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Lock it up, None of it is remotely realistic. You're not even getting Hamilton for those pieces and you're totally delusional if you think Hamilton signs for anything less then $8 million per and probably more.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Hamilton deal is one of the worst trade proposals I've seen on here in loooooong time.


Good lord. And you think you get him with an extension in place for that deal? Yikes

 

[Prajna]

In an ideal world, Sens are able to draft Byfield and thus, likely none of these scenarios happen because he's the C the Sens need. But I don't think it happens, LA won't pass over. Therefor, Sens pick 2 wingers and have to find a C elsewhere.

As for the Dubois OS, it probably is the least probable thing that can happen, but I am not certain where Sens could find another C that fits their needs and values. I am not positive Dubois is happy with Torts as the head coach, and might sign the OS. But then CBJ would likely match, I agree.

As for the Dougie trade, as the previous guys mention, I tried to find a comparable and the closest I could see was the McDonagh trade. It seems very comparable, and I would even add that Tampa also got JT Miller who is a pretty good player in that trade. If needed, Sens can add a 2020 2nd round pick or a decent prospect, which really is enough to get Dougie.

As far as the extension goes, I also see no issue giving Dougie 750k-1M more than what I offered. He definitely won't get more than 8.25M, looking at other defensemen like John Carlson at 8M, Josi at 9M, Hedman at 7.88M

Stutzle can also play center. We have Norris, Brown, (Pinto) and almost guaranteed to get a center with pick 3 or 5.
Wait to see what you have in those guys before trading for a center.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Pretty brutal trades for the other teams and I’d recommend against both Stutzle and Raymond sliding right into the top-6

 

[SensFactor]

I wouldn't do any of these moves. Sens need to keep the course.

 

[Bond]

Hamilton was the center piece in a trade that returned Lindholm and Hanifin a few years ago and his value has improved or stayed the same. I could maybe see that as a return for a rental trade.

 

[ManofSteel55]

What you really need is a veteran mentor on the blueline. You can have a cheap Kris Russell for a mid round pick. Your welcome.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

That's pretty meh value for Hamilton at the deadline. He's worth more as an own rental, if it comes to that.

 

[Hasbro]

Senators' moves to finish the rebuild? Melnyk taken to black site.