Seattle Expansion

[Bart9349]

I can think of 650 million reasons you will be proven wrong. This is happening in 2020, almost no doubt about it. Even if Seattle blew up they would award it to Houston. NHL owners are already pocketing that money and thinking that's their insurance against a prolonged lockout.

I think you are probably correct about an expansion team in general.

That said, there are many moving parts to any potential Seattle expansion team:
-Getting city approval for the downtown arena.
-Getting the season tickets nailed down.
-Although it sounds like 650 million shouldn't be a factor now, it might be if there were a stock market meltdown.
-As you mentioned, a potential prolonged lockout looming could deep-six ideas of future expansion (as well as kill NHL momentum with future revenues and popularity.)
-Finally (and most importantly for me), it would expose VGK to the fate of an expansion draft. Now, if you told me that VGK were somehow exempt from the disruption of a future expansion draft, I would say, "Let's go Seattle."

 

[willy702]

I think you are probably correct about an expansion team in general.

That said, there are many moving parts to any potential Seattle expansion team:
-Getting city approval for the downtown arena.
-Getting the season tickets nailed down.
-Although it sounds like 650 million shouldn't be a factor now, it might be if there were a stock market meltdown.
-As you mentioned, a potential prolonged lockout looming could deep-six ideas of future expansion (as well as kill NHL momentum with future revenues and popularity.)
-Finally (and most importantly for me), it would expose VGK to the fate of an expansion draft. Now, if you told me that VGK were somehow exempt from the disruption of a future expansion draft, I would say, "Let's go Seattle."

The expansion draft is the least of the team's worries. Every team loses a middle of the road asset, certainly something VGK could absorb. Even though some of these players have in some ways made their former teams look bad for exposing them, who has really been hurt badly by expansion? Karlsson looks like a terrible exposure for CBJ, but they still look like serious Cup contenders and for whatever reason Karlsson wasn't doing that much for them. The Preds probably could use Neal right now, but that's as much an injury problem as anything and no one is kidding themselves and saying they aren't Cup contenders still. Maybe we could say the Panthers were hurt, but they seemed intent on doing that to themselves in trying to change the team's identity for some unknown reason. Who else was taken that has changed the fortunes of their prior team?

The business/economic factors are certainly a risk. I think that's why the NHL is really pushing this deal forward as fast as they reasonably can. In their minds I have to think there was some game plan for this all along, thinking if they could wait for Seattle or even a Houston to come along in a few years after Vegas, they would have a shot at a premium valuation. Market size and corporate value being what they are, it would have seemed unfair to charge Foley the same entry price as an owner in those other bigger markets.

As for the others, I think there is little doubt they get the season tickets nailed down and the arena is a done deal. Many pundits are opining the expansion money actually will make it more likely there isn't a long lockout because the owners can accept slightly worse terms having over a billion dollars of unshared money sloshing around. Hard to say if that's really true, but its pretty clear they would be laughed at the next negotiations if they cried about a bunch of unprofitable teams. The players union will have the expansion money to point to and say hey if a team's losing money, move them. If you don't move them and have the success you have had with Winnipeg, its your own damn fault.