Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft

[Major4Boarding]

I'm having a difficult time rationalizing McDonagh, personally. This team still expects to be in the midst of a Cup run going into next season. The odds of being able to win the Cup go down a good amount in McDonagh's absence. As long as this core is here and the opportunity to go for the Cup exists, this organization needs to operate that way.

Yeah, I get what you're saying. I'd hate to have to move a top 4 Dman too in a non-Flat cap world. But what I can't get past is, (providing Killorn and Johnson can get moved off the books), there's only $6.67M to sign the following:

Coleman
Goodrow
Colton
Foote
(Sign) 5-7 Depth Dman
(Sign) Backup netminder

I think it's time to move on from Schenn and Borgman just doesn't do it for me, even though he's been moderately decent. But the wheels are bound to fall off soon as he's known for.

Now, this is me being hesitant in nuking essentially the third line by not re-signing Goodrow/Coleman. To me, Gourde fills Killer's spot and Colton would move up to the 3C spot (between) Goodrow/Coleman. You could round out the 4th line with Mattie Jo, Maroon, and one of Stephens, AB-B, or Smith.

To me, McDonagh's an unfortunate necessity. Moreso than Killer and TJ. Just what's in my head.

 

[Hoek]

Sergachev's ascendance has made McDonagh just about expendable enough to put him over the edge.

 

[These Are The Days]

Sergachev's ascendance has made McDonagh just about expendable enough to put him over the edge.

I'd also like to pound the table that Cernak is doing the same thing. I don't know if we can (quite literally) afford to keep McDonagh the full length of his contract. This flat cap business is no joke. Plus we're already gonna have to protect Hedman-Cernak-Sergachev anyway. We might just have to hope Seattle bites if we leave McDonagh exposed

 

[The Macho King]

Sergachev's ascendance has made McDonagh just about expendable enough to put him over the edge.

Obviously if McDonagh moves we need to address our depth on that side, but it feels like a move we could make.

Cernak has become indispensable because of the Right hand depth.

 

[Byrddog]

The last couple of games give us an idea what the D depth looks like with McD and Cernak out it has been ugly. While I agree that McD is the obvious solution to expose and deal with the CAP it further weakens the D. If he is gone next year and Heddy gets injured say a 4 month hip surgery, the team is in real trouble. It sucks that these decisions are going to have to be made and planning on moving a couple forwards and McD and replacing them with the young guys will limit this team. Sure Johnson needs to go. But moving Killer and Palat and replacing them with the kids is not going to stabilize the offense at a level it is now. IMO Colton has been the best of the kids followed by Smith. ABB has put up good numbers in the AHL but looked lost in the two games he played, the game was too fast for him. If he were ready he would have got more than two games. If he was ready to play top 6 he would be here and Joseph would be in the bottom 6.

Just getting under the cap for next season will not solve the long term CAP issues. The following year Point will get a 3 mil raise Joseph will be due a raise Rutta will be gone. The next year Cirelli, Cernak and Sergi will be due raises yet again.

 

[JTBF81]

The last couple of games give us an idea what the D depth looks like with McD and Cernak out it has been ugly. While I agree that McD is the obvious solution to expose and deal with the CAP it further weakens the D. If he is gone next year and Heddy gets injured say a 4 month hip surgery, the team is in real trouble. It sucks that these decisions are going to have to be made and planning on moving a couple forwards and McD and replacing them with the young guys will limit this team. Sure Johnson needs to go. But moving Killer and Palat and replacing them with the kids is not going to stabilize the offense at a level it is now. IMO Colton has been the best of the kids followed by Smith. ABB has put up good numbers in the AHL but looked lost in the two games he played, the game was too fast for him. If he were ready he would have got more than two games. If he was ready to play top 6 he would be here and Joseph would be in the bottom 6.

Just getting under the cap for next season will not solve the long term CAP issues. The following year Point will get a 3 mil raise Joseph will be due a raise Rutta will be gone. The next year Cirelli, Cernak and Sergi will be due raises yet again.

ABB looked far from lost, and the game was far from too fast for him. He'll be fine as a 2nd/3rd line winger when he gets a full time role next year. Point is getting a 2-2.5 raise most likely, as he's not going to get more than Kuch or Vasilevskiy. The cap will be going up again after another year, so by the time the main 3 rfas need a new deal there will be more money available. I can't see McD being moved now after the way the defense has looked without him and Cernak. Unless Tampa makes a move to address the defensive depth beyond this season, McD is not expendable. I still think Johnson, Killorn and Coleman are the likely casualties, with maybe a couple smaller moves to get under the cap. Goodrow can likely be kept, and between Joseph, Colton, Stephens and ABB(not to mention possibly Smith and Raddysh), Tampa has plenty to replace the F losses. Maybe they value keeping the Coleman-x-Goodrow shut down type line together, but that would necessitate losing 3 of TJ, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, and I believe they value Palat and Gourde over Coleman.

 

[The Gongshow]

It would hurt losing McD but we have to move Johnson, Killorn and McD. Too many of of our young players are getting their big pay days in a few years and we are absolutely ****ed at the cap right now. We'll need bottom pairing Dmen after next year and our 3rd line might be completely gone. We just have no room to play around with this cap.

 

[JTBF81]

It would hurt losing McD but we have to move Johnson, Killorn and McD. Too many of of our young players are getting their big pay days in a few years and we are absolutely ****ed at the cap right now. We'll need bottom pairing Dmen after next year and our 3rd line might be completely gone. We just have no room to play around with this cap.

They most certainly don't have to, and shouldn't move McD after this year unless at least 2 competent dmen are brought in to slot in on the left and as a #7. It's quite apparent that this team has little chance at a cup with the defense as is, minus McD and Cernak. Tampa can manage losing TJ, Killorn and Coleman given the depth at F. Losing McD is much worse, unless they already have a couple players in mind to take over at 3LD and as a competent #7 type, as Borgman and Schenn aren't it.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'd really rather us find a way keep Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman together because it's a working combination for all 3 guys you don't have to mess with. I know it's a pain in the ass to figure out what those guys are worth but we have an offense outside of them that's gonna get them some every night. And we've reached the point where don't need Johnson and Killorn in order to do it. The resurrection of Palat and Stamkos playing some of the best hockey of his career has made them expendable. "More" isn't always giving us "more" The hassle of figuring out what to pay Goodrow/Coleman is gonna save us money no matter what without sacrificing our offensive efficiency.

It's nothing personal against those guys but it's been like 9 years and they cost a f***-ton. Add McDonagh and you have 3 guys who collectively combine for 19.8% of our cap. I'd like to try to make McDonagh work but am wary of the cost

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

They most certainly don't have to, and shouldn't move McD after this year unless at least 2 competent dmen are brought in to slot in on the left and as a #7. It's quite apparent that this team has little chance at a cup with the defense as is, minus McD and Cernak. Tampa can manage losing TJ, Killorn and Coleman given the depth at F. Losing McD is much worse, unless they already have a couple players in mind to take over at 3LD and as a competent #7 type, as Borgman and Schenn aren't it.

I can almost guarantee McD will be gone

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I'd really rather us find a way keep Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman together because it's a working combination for all 3 guys you don't have to mess with. I know it's a pain in the ass to figure out what those guys are worth but we have an offense outside of them that's gonna get them some every night. And we've reached the point where don't need Johnson and Killorn in order to do it. The resurrection of Palat and Stamkos playing some of the best hockey of his career has made them expendable. "More" isn't always giving us "more" The hassle of figuring out what to pay Goodrow/Coleman is gonna save us money no matter what without sacrificing our offensive efficiency.

It's nothing personal against those guys but it's been like 9 years and they cost a f***-ton. Add McDonagh and you have 3 guys who collectively combine for 19.8% of our cap. I'd like to try to make McDonagh work but am wary of the cost

Keeping in mind Joseph is probably ready to take Coleman's spot next year.

 

[These Are The Days]

Keeping in mind Joseph is probably ready to take Coleman's spot next year.

While this is most likely true, my logic nests in that we are basically stuck with Gourde for good. We have 3 guys making about $5 million who go through horrific scoring slumps for months at a time and turn into black holes who can't play with anyone. Gourde is one. Johnson and Killorn are the others. At least with Goodrow and Coleman, I can prove Gourde has played the most consistent hockey of his career and has lost his propensity for doing this. There is no guarantee Joseph steps in with the same success to maximize our investment.

That said, I'd rather us eat shit and figure out how to bring them both as opposed to hoping Joseph is gonna somehow step in and replace the best linemate(s) he ever had. I can't tell you what either guy is gonna cost or if we can bring them back --money is that tight. But I can tell you with certainty the Lightning can't afford to pay any more players $5 million a year to be lost in the wilderness. Those days need to come an end for good. When Johnson and Killorn are gone less becomes more. I'd rather give the combined salaries to Goodrow and Coleman over any one salary of Killorn and Johnson ----even if it amounted to more after re-singing Goodrow/Coleman together.

However, streamlining the offense to open up opportunities for a player like Joseph IS the beginning. I just prefer he take their spots instead.

 

[JTBF81]

I can almost guarantee McD will be gone

Sure you can...but unless you're JBB or one of his cap guys lurking on here, you really have zero basis to make any "guarantees". The fact is that with McD, this team still has one of the better d corps in the league, while without him they are very thin if they suffer even one main injury on the blue line. The pairing of him and Cernak are the best overall pair the team has, unless they pair Sergachev with Hedman. Tampa will need at least 2 solid defensive replacements if they move on from McD, and even then, it's basically making a choice of keeping McD and his 6.75, or Coleman+weaker defensive replacements. After seeing how pitiful this team looked on defense without McD and Cernak, it seems very doubtful they try and push Seattle to take him.

 

[JTBF81]

For an example at next season, here are a couple of possible opening night roster templates:
Palat-Point-Kucherov(21.55)
Barre-Boulet-Cirelli-Stamkos(~14)
Gourde-Colton-Goodrow(7.5)
Maroon-Stephens-Joseph(2.375)
Smith/Raddysh(.7)
46.125

Hedman-Rutta(9.175)
McD-Cernak(9.7)
Sergachev-Foote(6.05)
7th d(.7)
25.58

Vasilevskiy(9.5)
Backup G(.8)
10.3
82.05, so JBB needs to shave approx 500k or so, not saying it will be easy, but not impossible

Option 2
Palat-Point-Kucherov(21.55)
ABB-Cirelli-Stamkos(14)
Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman(10.6)
Maroon-Colton-Joseph(2.337)
Stephens(.7375)
49.25

Hedman-Rutta(9.175)
Sergachev-Cernak(7.795)
New 3LD-Foote(~3?)
7th d(.75)
20.72

Vasilevskiy (9.5)
Backup(.8-1)
10 3-10.5
80.27-80.47, so here Tampa loses McD but keeps Coleman and hopefully finds 2 suitable defensive replacements. They would also have a little wriggle room for a little more to a contract or two, or they could add the 23rd roster slot. There are a lot more ? With this roster, as who know what replacement d would be found to help replace McD.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Hey guys, Seattle fan here.
It's really interesting reading your thoughts on the expansion draft.

It gets interesting after that. I don’t believe McDonagh will be protected. Foote is an RFA. I think Seattle would have a 48 hour window to negotiate with him if unprotected....if that’s the player they want.

The Lightning could roll the dice since Foote controls that situation and protect three more forwards. Something like Killer, Palat and Guorde or Colton. I know the Lightning will need to part with a forward or two for cap purposes, so the question becomes do those players with the 4-5 Million contracts bring back decent returns? JBB will certainly explore that. If they do, JBB May protect 7 forwards. If not, he will go with 4 defenseman.

About the bold part.
Teams have to submit their protected/unprotected lists on July 17th and the expansion draft will be held on July 21st.
During those four days Seattle will be able to negotiate with any RFA and UFA left unprotected, while being able to draft one player per team.

BTW: I think you guys are an obvious candidate for a side deal, given your contract situation.
Though, us taking a guy like Johnson(we could take someone Joseph if you go 4-4-1) would certainly cost you as about half the league would certainly like for us to take a contract off their payroll.

Also, I'm not that fond of taking McDonagh given his age and contract(length).
Of course, I'm also not Ron Francis.

 

[Lightning1995]

Hey guys, Seattle fan here.
It's really interesting reading your thoughts on the expansion draft.



About the bold part.
Teams have to submit their protected/unprotected lists on July 17th and the expansion draft will be held on July 21st.
During those four days Seattle will be able to negotiate with any RFA and UFA left unprotected, while being able to draft one player per team.

BTW: I think you guys are an obvious candidate for a side deal, given your contract situation.
Though, us taking a guy like Johnson(we could take someone Joseph if you go 4-4-1) would certainly cost you as about half the league would certainly like for us to take a contract off their payroll.

Also, I'm not that fond of taking McDonagh given his age and contract(length).
Of course, I'm also not Ron Francis.

I believe if Seattle actually signs an RFA or UFA, they no longer can draft someone off the same teams roster.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I believe if Seattle actually signs an RFA or UFA, they no longer can draft someone off the same teams roster.

Something like that.

The only reason for us to re-sign such a player, during that four day window, would be to have them on our team and therefore make them the selection during the expansion draft.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Hey guys, Seattle fan here.
It's really interesting reading your thoughts on the expansion draft.



About the bold part.
Teams have to submit their protected/unprotected lists on July 17th and the expansion draft will be held on July 21st.
During those four days Seattle will be able to negotiate with any RFA and UFA left unprotected, while being able to draft one player per team.

BTW: I think you guys are an obvious candidate for a side deal, given your contract situation.
Though, us taking a guy like Johnson(we could take someone Joseph if you go 4-4-1) would certainly cost you as about half the league would certainly like for us to take a contract off their payroll.

Also, I'm not that fond of taking McDonagh given his age and contract(length).
Of course, I'm also not Ron Francis.

I'd be willing to give up a fair return to clear Johnson. $5M for 3 more years isn't terrible, but obviously it takes away the opportunity to pick a younger option. I prefer to do the trade through the expansion draft but we could even make the move afterwards, there is no doubt that Seattle will be on Johnson's trade list. (Provided that you aren't capped out after the draft)

 

[Byrddog]

ABB looked far from lost, and the game was far from too fast for him. He'll be fine as a 2nd/3rd line winger when he gets a full time role next year. Point is getting a 2-2.5 raise most likely, as he's not going to get more than Kuch or Vasilevskiy. The cap will be going up again after another year, so by the time the main 3 rfas need a new deal there will be more money available. I can't see McD being moved now after the way the defense has looked without him and Cernak. Unless Tampa makes a move to address the defensive depth beyond this season, McD is not expendable. I still think Johnson, Killorn and Coleman are the likely casualties, with maybe a couple smaller moves to get under the cap. Goodrow can likely be kept, and between Joseph, Colton, Stephens and ABB(not to mention possibly Smith and Raddysh), Tampa has plenty to replace the F losses. Maybe they value keeping the Coleman-x-Goodrow shut down type line together, but that would necessitate losing 3 of TJ, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, and I believe they value Palat and Gourde over Coleman.

I sure hope you are wrong, because this would relegate the team to being a contender not the favorite for the cup. Do not get me wrong we will still have a strong core but the depth scoring will suffer and the team is not deep enough right now defensively. There is nothing that points to the CAP increasing for the next two years. Teams lost money last year and will lose a boatload this year. The new TV contracts and the expansion money will not touch the losses of the last two seasons.

Honestly I do not care if Goodrow walks I would like to keep Coleman but not at the expense of losing Gourde, Palat or Killorn. But like everyone I am going to be disappointed when some of these guys are traded. You just can not keep them all, it is my hope that we do not have a roster that has ABB, Colton, Joseph and another ELC forward all in one swoop. We are also going to have Foote learning as well as cost controlled third pair. Honestly we need to move a huge contract out to prevent gutting the depth scoring. But I doubt that happens.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I sure hope you are wrong, because this would relegate the team to being a contender not the favorite for the cup. Do not get me wrong we will still have a strong core but the depth scoring will suffer and the team is not deep enough right now defensively. There is nothing that points to the CAP increasing for the next two years. Teams lost money last year and will lose a boatload this year. The new TV contracts and the expansion money will not touch the losses of the last two seasons.

Honestly I do not care if Goodrow walks I would like to keep Coleman but not at the expense of losing Gourde, Palat or Killorn. But like everyone I am going to be disappointed when some of these guys are traded. You just can not keep them all, it is my hope that we do not have a roster that has ABB, Colton, Joseph and another ELC forward all in one swoop. We are also going to have Foote learning as well as cost controlled third pair. Honestly we need to move a huge contract out to prevent gutting the depth scoring. But I doubt that happens.

I'd rather keep Goodrow over Coleman

 

[LightningStrikes]

On the Kraken sub forum they’d like to pick Johnson btw.

 

[JTBF81]

I sure hope you are wrong, because this would relegate the team to being a contender not the favorite for the cup. Do not get me wrong we will still have a strong core but the depth scoring will suffer and the team is not deep enough right now defensively. There is nothing that points to the CAP increasing for the next two years. Teams lost money last year and will lose a boatload this year. The new TV contracts and the expansion money will not touch the losses of the last two seasons.

Honestly I do not care if Goodrow walks I would like to keep Coleman but not at the expense of losing Gourde, Palat or Killorn. But like everyone I am going to be disappointed when some of these guys are traded. You just can not keep them all, it is my hope that we do not have a roster that has ABB, Colton, Joseph and another ELC forward all in one swoop. We are also going to have Foote learning as well as cost controlled third pair. Honestly we need to move a huge contract out to prevent gutting the depth scoring. But I doubt that happens.

Doubt that I'm that far off. Johnson and Killorn would've been gone this past off season if not for Kucherov's injury(at least Johnson, probably Killorn). Two of Johnson, Killorn and Palat are out, no real way and around it. Since Palat only has 1 year left and would bring a better return than Killorn, maybe they move him, but pretty sure it's going to be Killorn.

It would be nice to keep Coleman, but Goodrow will be far cheaper and has a similar skillset. Even if Tampa has Joseph, Colton and ABB in the starting lineup as regulars, the team will be fine. The primary core will be intact, and they'll still very likely be a top 5 offensive team, if not top 3. This is the way it has to be if keeping McD is a priority, which it should be. Unless JBB has already planned for, realistically, 2 competent low cost replacements for next year(one at 3LD, and one #7 type that could, in theory, play either side), then packaging McD to Seattle or trying to convince him to waive would be a huge mistake.

The cap could easily go up starting after the 21-22 season, and even if it's not until.the summer of 23, it still works for most of Tampa's contracts. They will be fine, and with their usual smart cap management and development of players, should be a strong contender for at least another 3-5 years minimum. What will cripple the team is keeping some of these older depth scorers that are overpaid(if just slightly in some cases) while continuing to stunt young players from getting much of an opportunity and then watching them leave and flourish elsewhere. Or some of your other ideas like shipping Foote off as a sweetener with Johnson or packaging Cirelli with him. Getting rid of the team's quality young players to keep players like Killorn around another year is a very bad long term move. Killorn is a good playoff guy but aside from basically one year, he's a .5 ppg player that is not realistically a vital piece to have to keep.

If Tampa can keep 2 of TJ, Killorn, Palat and Gourde, I'm sticking with Palat and Gourde unless they already know they can't keep Palat after next year. Then sure, get value for Palat and make the choice between Killorn and Coleman. In any case, Joseph and Colton will have bigger roles and likely either ABB, Smith, or Raddysh will see a more regular role as well.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

ABB looked far from lost, and the game was far from too fast for him. He'll be fine as a 2nd/3rd line winger when he gets a full time role next year. Point is getting a 2-2.5 raise most likely, as he's not going to get more than Kuch or Vasilevskiy. The cap will be going up again after another year, so by the time the main 3 rfas need a new deal there will be more money available. I can't see McD being moved now after the way the defense has looked without him and Cernak. Unless Tampa makes a move to address the defensive depth beyond this season, McD is not expendable. I still think Johnson, Killorn and Coleman are the likely casualties, with maybe a couple smaller moves to get under the cap. Goodrow can likely be kept, and between Joseph, Colton, Stephens and ABB(not to mention possibly Smith and Raddysh), Tampa has plenty to replace the F losses. Maybe they value keeping the Coleman-x-Goodrow shut down type line together, but that would necessitate losing 3 of TJ, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, and I believe they value Palat and Gourde over Coleman.

McDonagh's expendable. Not saying it won't hurt to lose him, but he's too expensive.

If we move McD, I bet we also move Killer and TJ, and that will leave money to sign a defenseman on a one-year deal. Maybe only about $2m, but enough for an upgrade over Borgman or Schenn.

Plus, Foote will have another season under his belt (not to mention Serg and Cernak, who are also still improving their games), so the defense will naturally improving.

Also, if you want to go by our performances without him, you can't just look at how we did when Cernak was out too. We played one game where we were just missing McDonagh -- and we won 2-1. Wasn't until Drago got hurt that the defense started to struggle. And of course it's a tiny sample size anyway.

I see you ran some cap scenarios downthread, and I generally agree with your estimates. I think you're cheaping out on the backup goalie a bit (I'd add another $0.5m there -- we're in a bad way if our backup is worse than McElhinney) but that's minor. But take that D corps and compare it to what we ran with last game. We'd have Cernak and some vet on a one-year $2m-ish deal rather than Schenn and Borgman like we had vs Carolina.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Skipping a bit but in all honesty, leaving Killorn, Johnson, and McDonagh exposed is fine by me because I have those 3 pegged for trades anyhow. So if any of them are passed over JFBB still needs to move them. Somehow.

Agree, although McD has a NTC. We need him to go to Seattle via expansion draft. (Actually, that's a not quite true: we could waive him like we did TJ; I assume someone would take him off our hands but we'd get nothing back).

Ideally, we would work out a deal that Seattle takes Johnson off our hands if we expose McDonagh. Not sure they would bite (because they know we can't really afford to keep McD anyway), but if they would, hopefully the NTC doesn't prevent that sort of a deal.

And of course, that only works if Johnson puts Seattle on his trade list.

 

[Stammertime91]

I really like Coleman and I'm happy with the trade, he played a huge role in our cup win and hopefully does it again this spring, but if it comes down to him or Goodrow, I'm keeping Goodrow. Guy is so defensively sound and cheaper. Joseph has the potential for 20 goals and he is only getting better. He's still not as consistent but he's steps ahead of two seasons ago. He's an easy replacement and cheaper. Plus, other guys can and have killed penalties outside of Coleman. The guy whose production we would have to fill in somehow is Killorn. Though, I think Gourde is capable of playing like this over 82 games again than replicating last season. And if not him, you're getting Kucherov back and maybe someone like ABB or Colton can shine.


It's crazy to move McD right now. If we lost him this back end is in shambles.